[Archived] Is world war 3 about to kick off, starting in Ukraine

[yoda]

The supposed scenario was 500,000 Russians dropped into the USA. Leaving aside Hollywood, look at the math America has:

1. 1.43 million active duty military.

2. 850,000 active reserve personnel.

3. 118,000 in the individual ready reserve (inactive but subject to call up).

4. 120,000 armed federal law enforcement.

5. 765,000 armed full-time local and state law enforcement.

6. 44,000 armed part-time local law enforcement.

7. A population of roughly 316 million (including 21.2 million military veterans) with over 310 million firearms in private ownership spread across 40% of households.

All in all, the USA has a layered defense in spades, when looking at the quantity and source of armed resistance. Adding equipment quality and quantity (firepower multipliers of which we have far more than the Russians, or anyone else), it isn't close.

So two things would happen to the theoretical 500,000 Russians:

1. They would be wiped out in short order; or,

2. More likely they would promptly surrender and apply for permanent residency- which, if they had any sort of work ethic, I wouldn't mind at all.

option 3

Putin sees what is happening and pushes the button, no winners

[Steve Moss]

option 3

Putin sees what is happening and pushes the button, no winners

You need to read up on missile defense shields. Why does Putin protest installation of the shields in Poland and the Ukraine to protect Europe?

Most military analysts tend to concur that the USA has obtained nuclear primacy, at least in regards to the continental USA. So Putin won't be pushing any buttons in the direction of the USA. But he still has our allies in Europe that he can use to leverage us, which is why he he objects to defense shields in Poland, etc.

[yoda]

You need to read up on missile defense shields. Why does Putin protest installation of the shields in Poland and the Ukraine to protect Europe?

Most military analysts tend to concur that the USA has obtained nuclear primacy, at least in regards to the continental USA. So Putin won't be pushing any buttons in the direction of the USA. But he still has our allies in Europe that he can use to leverage us, which is why he he objects to defense shields in Poland, etc.

mmmmmm!

9/11 mean anything?

I would be very surprised if they don't have a back door

[jim mk2]

All in all, the USA has a layered defense in spades, when looking at the quantity and source of armed resistance. Adding equipment quality and quantity (firepower multipliers of which we have far more than the Russians, or anyone else), it isn't close.

Well yes, the US has a bigger willy when it comes to defence, which allows Republicans to pound the bald-headed moose to their hearts' contents. The problem is the US doesn't know how to use it.

[yoda]

Interesting take on Russia

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerscruton/2014/03/22/the-wrong-way-to-treat-president-putin/

[Steve Moss]

Well yes, the US has a bigger willy when it comes to defence, which allows Republicans to pound the bald-headed moose to their hearts' contents. The problem is the US doesn't know how to use it.

Really?

Here's a very comprehensive list of USA military engagements and their results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States

And you are right, in that it doesn't reflect uniform success. On the other hand, it does reflect the USA's willingness to step up. And, to paraphrase, if it was easy or risk free everyone would do it.

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

Crazy to think anyone could win a Nuclear war,again I reiterate the term M.A.D.

You do though have to wonder what the Russians are up to and if/how far they are prepared to push into NATO Ukraine...then I fear the shyte really does hit the fan.

What is behind this aggressive Ruskie posturing,are there dark forces at work here?

[ABBEY]

[yoda]

Crazy to think anyone could win a Nuclear war,again I reiterate the term M.A.D.

You do though have to wonder what the Russians are up to and if/how far they are prepared to push into NATO Ukraine...then I fear the shyte really does hit the fan.

What is behind this aggressive Rusky posturing,are there dark forces at work here?

read this

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerscruton/2014/03/22/the-wrong-way-to-treat-president-putin/

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

Yep good call that man,Putin reduced to nothing more than a puppet of the Oligarchy.

The fall of the Iron Curtain just might possibly not have been for the best after all,under the old Hammer and Sickle they knew their place and their limitations.

[yoda]

Yep good call that man,Putin reduced to nothing more than a puppet of the Oligarchy.

The fall of the Iron Curtain just might possibly not have been for the best after all,under the old Hammer and Sickle they knew their place and their limitations.

Is it just Oligarchs

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-true-story-of-the-bilderberg-group-and-what-they-may-be-planning-now/13808

I wonder how long a thread about the Bilderbergs would last on this forum!

By coincidence they are meeting again today in the UK

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10102168/Bilderberg-Group-No-conspiracy-just-the-most-influential-group-in-the-world.html

[Jeru tha Damaja]

Really?

Here's a very comprehensive list of USA military engagements and their results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States

And you are right, in that it doesn't reflect uniform success. On the other hand, it does reflect the USA's willingness to step up. And, to paraphrase, if it was easy or risk free everyone would do it.

That record gets a bit sketchy after World War I, especially when you see some of the things that are counted as "victories", I mean just to cite my favourite example: "Congo Crisis - Victory, Joseph Mobutu seizes power". In terms of military engagement the US may have won, but considering the consequences any right-thinking person would have to conclude that humanity was the loser.

The fact that the US has the ability and the disposition to act at will anywhere in the world is not something to be celebrated; in fact, it has been a travesty for millions. There have been times when they were right to intervene, but since the advent of the Cold War the paranoia and the disregard for the suffering of foreign peoples has turned America into the object of fear and hatred of large segments of the world population. Washington is seemingly always willing to pay the price of war, but it is seldom American families that feel the loss when that bill is settled.

As for fighting Russia, it isn't going to happen. If nothing else there are too many sensible people in the higher ranks of the military for it to come to that. Those who have seen what war does to men tend to find alternatives to putting their charges back into conflict. Half a million Russians in America isn't a realistic scenario, a guerrilla war in the streets of Eastern Europe is much more likely and if you think the Taliban spilled a lot of American blood and tears you don't want to get involved with a country that shows no regard for the lives of its own soldiers and would happily bomb a civilian population into oblivion to eliminate a threat. We aren't talking about the tinpot Iraqi army that could be swept away in days. This is a disciplined and battle-tested force with all the guided missile toys and air support that gave America and its allies such a stark advantage over the forces they have faced in any engagement since WWII.

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

....But our Stevo says the Russians are a tin pot WW2 level military force.

I bet those T34's can still roll!!!

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

Those who have seen what war does to men tend to find alternatives to putting their charges back into conflict.

Looking back over the last 100 years that idea carries little reality Jeru!

[Jeru tha Damaja]

Looking back over the last 100 years that idea carries little reality Jeru!

When the top brass in the American military aren't on trial for sexual misdemeanours they do tend to be the voice of reason. There are two slight problems, though:

1) The politicians get the final say.

2) The army is often a rather blunt instrument and a lot of the ill-judged escapades of the last 60 (-ish) years have been undertaken by the CIA, an organisation with very little public oversight and enough private funding to function independent of the US government. Scary.

[Steve Moss]

That record gets a bit sketchy after World War I, especially when you see some of the things that are counted as "victories", I mean just to cite my favourite example: "Congo Crisis - Victory, Joseph Mobutu seizes power". In terms of military engagement the US may have won, but considering the consequences any right-thinking person would have to conclude that humanity was the loser.

. . .

As for fighting Russia, it isn't going to happen. If nothing else there are too many sensible people in the higher ranks of the military for it to come to that. Those who have seen what war does to men tend to find alternatives to putting their charges back into conflict. Half a million Russians in America isn't a realistic scenario, a guerrilla war in the streets of Eastern Europe is much more likely and if you think the Taliban spilled a lot of American blood and tears you don't want to get involved with a country that shows no regard for the lives of its own soldiers and would happily bomb a civilian population into oblivion to eliminate a threat. We aren't talking about the tinpot Iraqi army that could be swept away in days. This is a disciplined and battle-tested force with all the guided missile toys and air support that gave America and its allies such a stark advantage over the forces they have faced in any engagement since WWII.

The change is more one of emphasis. Post WWII it became a popular to differentiate between "hard" and "soft" power. Military engagements are no longer carried until their logical conclusion (a clear military victory) and instead a mix of raw military power, economic incentives, and 'smart' diplomacy.

It's all very Byzantine.

As to the supposed superiority of the Russian military- HA! We're all pathetic and weak, from the weakest, pencil-necked bookkeeper to the toughest, steely eyed Navy SEAL. A bullet does for everyone of us, without regard to nationality, including Russians.

Once you accept that truth, there is no need to fear any particular brand of human being. All that is left is discipline, esprit de corps, leadership, supply and training.

And I hate to break it to you, but the Russians are not at the top of that particular list (I'd actually bet money on the Poles, pound for pound). There is nothing and no one, not even your vaunted Russians, that can compete with America and its allies.

So what it boils down to is whether we have the will to exercise our capabilities. Putin is gambling that we don't. I think he's placed his bets correctly.

[Amo]

[Jeru tha Damaja]

I don't honestly think that the Russians are superior to the US military. I don't think you could really make an argument for any other nation in that regard. Properly commanded, the US military is the most efficient killing machine on the planet. The sheer scale of the enterprise and the wealth and technological advancement of the industrial complex behind it set it apart from even those nations that boast equally well-disciplined forces.

What I am saying is that there have been engagements with factions that were significantly less well trained and equipped than the Russian army that inflicted a lot of casualties in the very recent past, and a war would not be a conventional meeting of armed forces, that day is dead, so if troops arrived on the ground there would be massive losses on both sides and the biggest losers would be the local civilians who would have the choice of leaving their lives behind and becoming refugees or risking their lives to stay.

Just to clear things up, I don't love Russia and I don't despise the original values of America. In fact, I love the idea of a government that stays out of people's business wherever possible. My problem is with governments that pretend their foreign policy is unbiased or that the crimes of other states are different to their own misadventures. Even in Ukraine the West is defending its own interests in the region, not the liberty of a people. That's the hypocrisy that I can't stand.

[jim mk2]

Half a million Russians in America isn't a realistic scenario,

Of course it isn't. It wasn't meant to be taken literally, though in hand to hand combat I would back the Russians to win if only because human life means nothing to their commanders. The point is, Russian expansionism always bring out siren calls in the US for another great European war but the US would much less keen for war if it were fought in its own backyard. Let's see how the "soccer" Moms and Dads like it when their neighbourhood is razed to the ground by an invading army.

[Paul]

But you'll never get a response to that point just more and more my Dad's bigger than yours.

For a man who doesn't care what others think of his country Mr Moss spends one hell of a lot of time bigging up the good ol' US of A.

[jim mk2]

Good ol' Steve is just your average rooti' tooti' all-American guy who has stars and stripes in his eyes and has Mom's apple pie for tea. He votes for the good 'ol GOP and just hates those darn Commies in the Democratic party. Why can't they be more like him dammit? He drives a Dodge (not Japanese junk for our Steve), has a gal in Texas called Bobbie Joe and always vay-cay-shuns in the You-S-A because abroad's a foreign land and they're all socialists in Yurrup like that Arab president Obama. Yee-haa. God bless America folks.

[Steve Moss]

But you'll never get a response to that point just more and more my Dad's bigger than yours. For a man who doesn't care what others think of his country Mr Moss spends one hell of a lot of time bigging up the good ol' US of A.

I don't care what you think of the USA, Paul. You're an adult. You'll make up your own mind.

I'm responding to those (including you, I believe) that makes decisions so as to avoid provoking the bully, in this case Putin. There is no need to fear Russia (unless you're an eastern European who desires to avoid the Russian heel). We should make decisions in our own interests, or the interests of our allies, or to deny our enemies some benefit, not because Putin might decide to start WWIII. He won't. And if he did, he wouldn't last long.

[dave birch]

Steve, It's about time that the "average American" considered what the "average overseas" person thought about the US. And it's really not very flattering for those US citizens.

I'd tend to agree with Paul.

From where I am, (in a country that became a safe haven for many escaping the horrors of nazi Germany, or the restrctiveness of the USSR), the US has gone from a place of refuge to one of overbearing arrogance. The "we are right, whatever you think" attitude is the norm for many observers of world politics.

Shame, because it shouldn't be that way.

War is sooo yesterday. The best way to wage war against another nation, these days is an economic one, target those that got fat off the back of the ones that produce the wealth, target the ones that have spread their wealth beyond their shores. There's much more I could add, but why bother, water off ducks backs etc.

[otto man]

Dave. Having worked and lived overseas for many years I can promise you that we are no better regarded, having been guilty of many of the failings you now accuse American of.( You do remember we had an Empire don't you and just how we got it?) As to "War being sooo yesterday" do you really think the naive argument behind it will carry any weight with Putin and the Russian military machine as it begins to grind it's way across Eastern Europe? After all years of sanctions didn't stop Tehran gaining Nuclear capability did it? And what about the years of no fly zones and economic sanctions that just didn't stop Saddam doing his thing?

[otto man]

Good ol' Steve is just your average rooti' tooti' all-American guy who has stars and stripes in his eyes and has Mom's apple pie for tea. He votes for the good 'ol GOP and just hates those darn Commies in the Democratic party. Why can't they be more like him dammit? He drives a Dodge (not Japanese junk for our Steve), has a gal in Texas called Bobbie Joe and always vay-cay-shuns in the You-S-A because abroad's a foreign land and they're all socialists in Yurrup like that Arab president Obama. Yee-haa. God bless America folks.

And so being bereft of further rational debate you resort to sneering schoolboy mockery. You really don't mind embarrassing yourself do you!