[Archived] Great Expectations (Beyond Back or Sack)

[Stuart]

Now that the back or sack thread has been mothballed, I was wondering what people thought of our chances next season with Bowyer still in charge.

Play-off expectations, even in the last month, have been pooh-poohed because "it was too soon", or because "we should simply be grateful of how far we've come in 12 months". Throwing back "the start of the season expectations" as a means to whitewash an evolution during the second half of the season which SHOULD have resulted in a play-off place THIS SEASON.

Yet, because of the last 12 games unbeaten - despite settling for draws when wins looked possible - some people are bouncing at the prospect of AUTOMATIC promotion next season. Is that not just a little unrealistic?

Let's have a look at the contenders:

- Three of QPR, Derby, Brighton, or Wigan

- Reading, Ipswich, Forest, Bolton, even Wolves

- Cardiff, Fulham

- Sunderland or Norwich

Is Bowyer, with his young team, likely to overcome all but ONE of those teams? Will we really have a better opportunity next season? Would a better manager be more likely to do this, or would that mean starting again?

[Tom]

Realistic or not we have to be promoted anything else will be failure

I think we can do it automatically, the big test is carrying on the way we have finished, Bolton will tell you that's not guaranteed!

We have what I believe to be the best strikeforce in the league with a couple of the most dangerous wingers that will always mean goals.

The way we approach games is crucial but I hope the manager has now realised that if we go at teams we can and will beat anyone whereas being over cautious often doesn't produce the goods.

[JAL]

Suppose we need to see who Bowyer brings in as his keeper first and foremost.

Then we need to see who he brings in to play right full back.

Then we need to see if he brings another central midfielder in and offloads Lowe and Williamson.

Then we need to see who he brings in upfront.

If hes done well get your season tickets bought if not bring in a winner at management level.

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

You could merge this thread with the Rao one...our future in their hands.

I am now more than ever convinced this close season and the decisions made by the Punatics will mean shyte or bust for Blackburn Rovers.The last season of Parachute payments.

They have to get it right for once at all costs.

[Blue n whites]

What's with the CAPITALS. It really ANNOYING,

I didn't think at the start of the season we would be in the playoffs. I hoped and prayed we would get some sense of a club back, I'm scared to say stable as it seems to get a snigger on here but that's exactly what I wanted, I don't mean off the side issues as no one knows them probably even the lunes.

As for next season, if Gary carries on his very impressive recruitment and continues to offload the unprofessionals we have on our books then why can't we get in the playoffs at least. With some sensible decisions, a bit of luck and some of the drama queen supporters pulling in the same direction for the good of the club then anything is possible,

Not felt as positive in years.

[somersetrover]

Let's have a look at the contenders:

- Three of QPR, Derby, Brighton, or Wigan

- Reading, Ipswich, Forest, Bolton, even Wolves

- Cardiff, Fulham

- Sunderland or Norwich

Is Bowyer, with his young team, likely to overcome all but ONE of those teams? Will we really have a better opportunity next season? Would a better manager be more likely to do this, or would that mean starting again?

I think Derby or Wigan will win the play offs. Derby if they don't go up will be very strong again next year, Wigan will lose Powell who has been key for them this season and I wouldn't be at all surprised if premier league clubs came in for MacArthur and McManaman. Brighton will be strong again but with the squad we have will be more than capable of finishing above them. QPR well if they don't go up Harry will go for certain, they will lose their loanees like Morrison, Assou Ekoto, Carroll and Kranjcar and other players will be out the door as well as they have an even more astronomical wage bill than us, in fact I read somewhere the other day that they have a higher one than Athletico. If they don't go up QPR will be like us this season need to get rid of players to get the wage bill down to comply with FFP.

Reading have already said that they would need to cut their wage bill if they didn't go up which is not going to happen now. McCarthy will have Ipswich solid but I don't think that they will be a threat. Forest are a funny side I thought with how they strengthened in January and with the position that they were in that they'd be promoted, but they got lots of injuries and just imploded. If Forest keep their squad together they should be strong but we finished above them this season and I think next season they will have a far weaker manager than Davies in Pearce whom I think is a poor manager.

Bolton, we finished well ahead of this year and I think that they have the finance to strengthen enough to finish above us. Wolves I think will just look to consolidate next season.

Cardiff are a club in turmoil, they have a poor manager, a narcissistic owner, they will lose Noone, Medel, Mutch and Caulker and possibly a few others. Fulham have an aging squad on high wages, they will probably have a different manager as I can't see Magath wanting to manage in the Championship, I can see Fulham struggling like we did last season. However if Magath were to stay and rebuild they would be strong but I just can't see him wanting to do that. Norwich are all but gone, I think they will be strong if they make the right managerial appointment and can offload some their flops like van Wolfswinkel, Fer, Garrido, Bassong, Gutierrez and Elamnder. If they spend the money they get wisely then they will be strong as they have the basis of a good Championship squad with the likes of Martin, Turner, Johnson, Snodgrass, Pilkington, Bennett, Hopper, Becchio, Howson, Redmond, Murphy and Hoolahan.

Two other side that I think will be competing at the top are Middlesbrough and Watford. But if we play next season like we finished this season we are more than capable of finishing above anyone.

[Baz]

We wont go anywhere if we concede as many goals as we have done this season.

Surely has to offer Robbo at least 12 months.

[patrickvalery]

If I allow myseld to get swept away with the deliberate comparisons with Leicester which have been peddled by some fans and even our own manager and players, then automatic promotion next season seems possible. And there really is every chance that it could happen. The momentum we've built up in the last twelve games could carry on into next season and we could dare to dream.

However, my head tells me it's still too early for that. The logical part of my brain tells me playoffs are very possible but not automatic promotion. The main reason being I have very serious reservations about our defensive capabilities. Its no coincidence that our leaky defence began with the arrival of Keane. Thats not a slight on the kid because by all accounts he has looked the part. But as a cohesive unit the disruption of selling Dann, the building of the Kilgallon / Hanley partnership and the integration of Keane all lead to a back four which sprang too many leaks. If we can keep Keane and the rest of the back four then I believe our promotion chances increase. If we have to build that back four from scratch again this summer then it will be another 'nearly' season.

Footballs greatest stories are those of continuity and longevity. The trouble is not so much giving a manager and a side time. But are we giving the RIGHT manager, the RIGHT players and the RIGHT system time? The million dollar question. Personally, I believe that Bowyer has shown in glimpeses that we aren't too far away. I hope our owners find a way to back him this summer and I honestly now believe that he has as much chance as anyone of getting us back up next season if the core of this side is kept together.

I wouldnt go so far as to say next season is one we should look forward to because the threat of financial disaster looms large. But I do have to say, the thought of a third transfer window on the trott where a single manager continues to build towards his vision is quite a nice thought. Because the chopping and changing of management only leads to a squad of mismatches and players not fit for purpose. Its nice to think the window will be about building on whats already here rather than starting from ground zero once again.

[Stuart]

What's with the CAPITALS. It really ANNOYING,

It's for emphasis, get over yourself.

[Doug]

What's with the CAPITALS. It really ANNOYING,

I didn't think at the start of the season we would be in the playoffs. I hoped and prayed we would get some sense of a club back, I'm scared to say stable as it seems to get a snigger on here but that's exactly what I wanted, I don't mean off the side issues as no one knows them probably even the lunes.

As for next season, if Gary carries on his very impressive recruitment and continues to offload the unprofessionals we have on our books then why can't we get in the playoffs at least. With some sensible decisions, a bit of luck and some of the drama queen supporters pulling in the same direction for the good of the club then anything is possible,

Not felt as positive in years.

Good post, my suggestion is put the drama queens on ignore, it does help.

[chaddyrovers]

Thanks Stuart for starting this topic up and making some good points and also other posters as well for doing so.

my view and this is based on the current situation and what I think might happen during the summer.

Firstly, I think Derby will go up through the playoffs this season beating Wigan in the final.

will Fulham and Cardiff change managers now they have been relegated now. if they do stay with their current managers, wonder how well they know what is needed at Championship level. both squad will need overhaul of players with Fulham squad ageing and Cardiff will lose some key players like Mutch, Marshall, Campbell, Bellamy, Caulker and Medel all likely to leave for sure.

Norwich will have good side in the championship but for me a lot of their chances of promotion will depend on who they appoint as manager.

Ipswich will be challenging for playoffs under McCarthy again but wonder how much money he will be allow to spend if any. might dent their hopes if he cant strength his squad.

Expect QPR to have a new manager in place with Redknapp either retiring or moving to a director of football role at the club. I expect either Zola or Sherwood as manager there. also think they will be massive overhaul in players there in and out.

Brighton will be strong next season and Garcia will have learnt a lot about the championship this season. expect them to challenge for top 2 spots.

Reading have already said that they will have to cut the wage bill but do have experience manager in Adkins so still expect them to challenge for playoffs.

Think Wigan will be strong next season but will have to replace to loan players who have been good signings for them like Josh McEacran and Collison plus Maynard,. but think they will lose 2 or 3 key players.

also think Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Watford will be challenging for promotion/playoffs.

now my view on Rovers chances. I fully expect Bowyer to be manager next season and Andy Cryer has said tonight on twitter that he is going to India next week or so. (Andy was happy for me to post this on the messageboard btw)

I think we need 4 signings this summer. a first choice right back, centre back, midfielder and striker. plus not sell any key players in the squad. if this is done I fully expect us to be challenging for promotion and aiming for top 6 for sure.

But we need cut the wage bill again by getting rid of players like DJ, Goodwillie, Best, Etuhu, Judge, Rochina and maybe selling Henley who hasn't progress enough this season.

[patrickvalery]

I really wouldn't like to guess at who will be strong and who won't next season. To be honest I don't know enough about each club to say either way. All I do know is in this divison I think a young squad who are fit enough to cope with 2 / 3 games in 10 days, don't fear anyone, have a top notch spirit and a competent level of organisation will give themselves a chance. Having the 'best' players is a bonus but far from a necessity. Imo rovers have a few of these qualities. If we can get the organisation right then we'll be close again. Bowyer is a big part of getting that right. But so is the recruitment of an experienced leader.

If we had a David Jones, a Richard Dunne, a Kevin Phillips etc.... would we have lost against Brighton or Wednesday? It's imperative we sign one of these experienced types this summer imo. And it doesn't even have to be an obvious choice. I dont know how many people will recall Gordon Strachans side at Southampton? But one of his best players was a busy little bald headed midfielder called Chris Marsden. A journeyman from big club brum if I recall. But that bloke was a menace and an example to that side. Bugger all talent but discipline by the bucket load. Our side needs one of these and needs it quite badly.

[joey_big_nose]

Think we have to be in the top six by start of November, in touch with the top two. Otherwise we need to change the manager. I expect us to be there, and support bowyer as he has done a fantastic job. That's got to be the line in the sand though.

Alongside all the teams mentioned there will be a surprise package as well a la Burnley. Always is.

[ABBEY]

It's for emphasis, get over yourself.

iNSEED

[47er]

If anyone thinks we'll be promoted by scoring for fun and leaking goals in a similar fashion, then they are in for another disappointment.

Promotion sides invariably get things right at the back and build from there. We need to look hard and long at why a defence which was quite stingy earlier in the season is now very sloppy. We need to grind out some 1-0's. At the moment, it doesn't matter how far ahead we are, I am always terrified we' ll throw it away in the last few minutes.

We need to sort out the keeper first. If Robbo isn't staying then we need a first class replacement no.1 keeper. No hoping that Kean or Eastwood can do it. So many points squandered there.

We need a leader on the pitch, someone who'll grab a colleague by the throat if necessary to concentrate their minds (I had Hanley in mind when I typed that!). Someone like Kevin Moran for instance or an experienced defensive mid-fielder fashioned from granite.

It's a very young side and we have nobody like that in the club apart from Robbo.

Incidentally, what's Hendry doing? Is he not allowed to assist here? He was a leader on the pitch, if he can't teach what he learned what's the point of having him?

The potential for promotion is clearly there and Bowyer is talking about needing "another 2 or 3 windows" before the squad is where he wants it. A very interesting comment for all sorts of reasons.

[ABBEY]

Let's look in seriousness

23 points off promotion

[somersetrover]

If anyone thinks we'll be promoted by scoring for fun and leaking goals in a similar fashion, then they are in for another disappointment.

Promotion sides invariably get things right at the back and build from there. We need to look hard and long at why a defence which was quite stingy earlier in the season is now very sloppy. We need to grind out some 1-0's. At the moment, it doesn't matter how far ahead we are, I am always terrified we' ll throw it away in the last few minutes.

We need to sort out the keeper first. If Robbo isn't staying then we need a first class replacement no.1 keeper. No hoping that Kean or Eastwood can do it. So many points squandered there.

The potential for promotion is clearly there and Bowyer is talking about needing "another 2 or 3 windows" before the squad is where he wants it. A very interesting comment for all sorts of reasons.

Blackpool, Norwich and Crystal Palace have all gone up in recent years and conceded a fair few goals in doing so. I thought that Robbo had another year on his contract. As for Bowyer's comments every manager says that, if any manager said they had the squad they wanted they would immediately be putting pressure on themselves.

[Paul]

Let's look in seriousness

23 points off promotion

I don't buy this momentum thing. The 12 match unbeaten run is irrelevant - that's gone and we start again from zero.

Abbey makes the key point. We needed to win another 8 games. Automatic promotion? Personally I can't see it unless:

We learn to defend. 4-3 is exciting but not promotion form

Get a new keeper. Sadly I think Robbo is near the end.

Grind out results

Stop inviting pressure by sitting back

Perform for 90 minutes

I would love to see a promotion challenge but at best only see us in the play offs. It's too soon to be worrying about it though.

[Riverside67]

47er spot on.........sounds like Bowyer knows this side is a long way off the required standard.

[dingles staying down 4ever]

If Rovers are to progress next season then I think we need to look at strengthening in 4 positions:-

i. Goalkeeper - Robbo's time has come We need a more agile keeper. Eastwood and Kean are only stand in keepers. Keep either one but try and move on the other.

ii. Right Back - Henley not good enough. Other two only on loan. Keep Lowe as reserve full back.

iii. Centre Half - Kilgallon is OK whilst watching our captain is like watching a lottery. His decision making is debatable at best.

iv. Central Midfield - Williamson and Lowe need replacing. Nobody is going to take Etohu so people saying get rid are in dream land. The only way would be to pay him up. Sad to say Dunn has served his time. Personally I'd like us to sign an Hard as Nails player who would allow the others to play. Someone who would stop us from getting bullied, like Mc Lean did to us yesterday.

Finally if Bowyer is to develop he has to learn to take the initiative in games. He must not convey the negative as per the Yeovil game. He must also be decisive in his substitutions, not dither like yesterday and several other matches.

A review of how Rovers defend is also critical as yesterday showed. Maybe Bowyer will also have to show a ruthless streak and replace whoever coaches our defence and Keepers. I've said for some time that Keeley needed replacing as Keeper coach and I presume it would be Craig Short defensively.

[The Rover of Finland]

We can't bring in totally new defence so that is something we must practise. I haven't seen many matches recently but keeping the ball used to be a major problem. We won't concede so much if we can keep the ball more. No idea whether the owners are willing to support Bowyer financially or not. The situation is so stupid as the major part of wages are spent on players who don't even play. Best, Etuhu or Campbell won't have future here but can't get rid. Robbo would be number one if he stays but honestly he isn't worth for his wages. If only the wages of those four could be used for players actually playing.

[Waggy76]

Abbey is right 23points off promotion and finished 8th...

Momentum will count for zilch come August everyone starts from scratch...

A season of missed opportunities , the manager has lost us too many points ....

It looks he will still be in charge come August , hope he has learned his lessons cos next season will not be has forgiving !

[Andy]

I think the recent run has earned Boywer the right to carry on next season and if he can keep most of his squad together, offloading a couple and recruiting a couple of quality players, then we should be in the top six next season.

Not been as positive about a Rovers side or the upcoming season since Big Sam was in charge.

[moerpho]

If next season mirrors the previous seasons from an objective standpoint this is what will probably happen:

- one or two teams that have performed well this season will struggle next season

- an underdog will be up there in the mix throughout the season

- everyone beats everyone

- some of our best performers this season will disappear next season (like Kane last season)

- some of our bad performers will be better after preseason

- someone will show great or bad form in preseason matches only for the opposite to happen when the season starts

- how we start the season will probably mean zilch for where we end up next year

I really hope that Bowyer is given a chance to keep to core of his team together over the summer. If he can manage to keep hold of Cairney, Conway, Evans, Rhodes, Gestede, Marshall and King I think we have a real chance. Our main problem this season has been defending. You can blame Bowyer all you want, but the players should take their fair share of the blame. Too many avoidable goals conceded - too many schoolboy errors from our central defenders. One can only hope that this will be the focus over the summer as I think we're fine going forward. Burnley only scored 2 goals more than us this season, but conceded 25 less. I think that will be the key to going up - not just gung ho going at 'em at all cost. I'd rather have a season of 1-0's than 4-3's as boring as that might sound.

I also think some people on here underestimate the value of this unbeaten run at the end of the season. Last season we had a team that was used to losing and thus looked like they expected to lose when going behind. I think that is a hard thing to get rid of and why teams relegated from the PL often struggle compared to expectations (QPR walking this league etc). Keep the team together, sort out the defence and focus on that winning culture and we should be a contender for one of those top 6 places. I was on the fence about Bowyer but now believe that he might be able to get us up. For the first time in ages I'll be really looking forward to a new season.

[den]

The potential for promotion is clearly there and Bowyer is talking about needing "another 2 or 3 windows" before the squad is where he wants it. A very interesting comment for all sorts of reasons.

It's obvious why he would say that 47 er. You know why and I know why.