[Archived] The General Election 2015

[scotchrover]

So it's here, 5 weeks of bitching from politicians, about "we're not as bad them, so you need to vote for us." I won't lie, I'm quite looking forward to how this election will pan out, due to how unpredictable it could be. The state of the parties going in the election:

Tories- They should have walked the last election with how bad Labour were under Brown. They're still remembered for a lot of unpopular policies though in my eyes, from the Thatcher era. I think the amount of MPs they have will go down, simply because Farage will wow a lot of Tory voters.

Labour- Struggling to get their message across, and offering little alternative to the Tories. Ed did come across unexpectedly well in my eyes on the Channel 4 party leaders' programme, last week. Ed could take many by surprise (not holding my breath on that one though).

UKIP- Farage's straight talking approach on 'untouchable' subjects, like immigration and Europe , have touched the electorate. I feel they'll cause some serious damage to safe Tory/ Labour/ Lib Dem majorities.

SNP- This lot have turned Scotland's political spectrum on its head, and are looking set to wipe-out
Labour up there. I can see them holding the balance of power if there's hung parliament, and jumping into bed with Labour.

Lib Dems- In for an absolutely hammering. I can see Clegg being taken out, with UKIP taken some of their seats in the south east of the country.

Greens- Taking some of the old Labour vote, with their anti-austerity approach. I can see them picking up another MP.

Some seats to watch:

Sheffield Hallam: Nick Clegg's surely has to go, doesn't he?
South Thanet: Nigel Farage is standing here.
Rotherham: the local Labour Party let down so many families, with the disgusting corruption which went on. Will they be re-elected them again?
Kirkcaldy: Douglas Alexander, one of the more prominent members of Labour's shadow cabinet, could well lose his seat, with the SNP tidal wave.
Darwen: will Jack Straw's son continue the family legacy in the area, by being elected?

My prediction: Labour/ SNP coalition, with a return to socialist values in government.

Remember to try and keep the debate open-minded & friendly.

[Paul]

Difficult to disagree with your assessment scotchrover in particular with the impact of the SNP.

The Lib Dems will be hammered which is a shame because I feel they have had an impact in the coalition.

UKIP will receive good support with plenty voting in their favour having the effect of splitting the vote in many constituencies and throwing out some strange results for either Labour or Conservative. Can't see UKIP winning more than a handful of seats.

The likely outcome for me will be a Lab/SNP coalition. The SNP have said there will be no Con/SNP coalition (mind you who can believe anything) meaning the Tories either have to win a very substantial vote and/or do a deal with every minor party at Westminster. I doubt either will happen or be effective.

The Lab/SNP result will come about through a Tory failure to win rather than Labour's ability to win. I cannot see the SNP supporting the Tories.

It's going to be fascinating, for once, but still a shame we can't get a grown up campaign as Scotland did with the devolution vote. As a Labour supporter I have little faith in Milliband and can't see where he will take us.

The Conservatives on the other hand will take a slash and burn scorched earth approach to our public services and those least able to defend themselves will suffer most. We ain't seen nothing yet. If the electorate really saw and understood the impact of Tory cuts on vulnerable people no undecided person would vote for them.

I'd like to find a meaningful vote other than Labour, a real alternative, but there isn't one locally. The one thing we cannot allow is Cameron and Osborne a second chance to destroy public services and state support for the elderly and vulnerable. Voting against a party rather than supporting one you believe is a poor basis on which to vote.

[K-Hod]

There is no real choice, horrendous the lot of them.

[thenodrog]

The likely outcome for me will be a Lab/SNP coalition. The SNP have said there will be no Con/SNP coalition (mind you who can believe anything) meaning the Tories either have to win a very substantial vote and/or do a deal with every minor party at Westminster. I doubt either will happen or be effective.

The Conservatives on the other hand will take a slash and burn scorched earth approach to our public services and those least able to defend themselves will suffer most. We ain't seen nothing yet. If the electorate really saw and understood the impact of Tory cuts on vulnerable people no undecided person would vote for them.

I'd like to find a meaningful vote other than Labour, a real alternative, but there isn't one locally. The one thing we cannot allow is Cameron and Osborne a second chance to destroy public services and state support for the elderly and vulnerable. Voting against a party rather than supporting one you believe is a poor basis on which to vote.

Point 1. I cannot think of a worse case scenario than a weak Labour PM having the nation dance to the SNP tune! tbh the best end to that would be an army coup leading to a Military dictatorship.... and I am not kidding! The SNP couldn't grasp power in their own election but this is there 2nd and imo most viable chance. Milliband would imo be in the position of committing treason! Cameron on the other hand and now that powers have been devolved to Scotland wants to prevent Scots voting on English matters and quite right too! the LAB SNP scenario would see a tiny nation rogering a much larger one for the mext 5 years. So much for Democracy eh?

Point 2. Whilst we need to care for the sick and vulnerable I'm becoming rather alarmed that the defintion of 'vulnerable' has widened and is continuing to widen at a pace. 'Survival of the fittest' is not a page in a biology book it is the way the human race has evolved for eons and must continue to do albeit so within generally acceptable boundaries.

Point 3. Compare the economy and the state of the nation NOW to the economy and state of the nation in 2010 and you simply have no viable argument other than an outdated loyalty to some 60's hippy priniciples Paul. You need to realise Paul that the National Health Service can only be funded by a strong and vibrant economy. We have one now, but we didn't have 5 years ago! Careful you don't bite off the hand that is feeding you.

[Paul]

Thenodrog you've the most remarkable ability to read one thing and reply to another......... and chuck in the odd insult as well.

I offered an opinion on what I think will be the outcome of the election and why. I went on to say I would like to see an alternative to Labour but there isn't one locally.

At no point did I mention the NHS. Ckearly it needs a healthy economy, it also needs everyone to pay their taxes. Equally I made no mention of the economy, it seems far healthier to me today than five years ago. Many of the issues in 2010 were to do with the world economy and not entirely the responsibility of the Labour government.

As for the remarks about survival of the fittest it would indicate you are unaware of the true impact government cuts are having and future Conservative cuts will have on those least able to help themselves. Clearly all state funded benefits need to be as efficient as possible. However cutting services and taking money directly out of those people's pockets is not necessarily the most efficient. I'll give you one tiny example.

As a nation we face an obesity and diabetes time bomb. Exercise is a key weapon in preventing this, the government has issued clear guidance on the amount of exercise an individual should take each week. At the same time funding which allows the disabled to exercise is being withdrawn or cut meaning those likely to have poor diet and lack exercise have little opportunity to do so. What is needed is joined up thinking, a cut today will offer create a greater cost tomorrow. Other examples within the benefits system and NHS are numerous.

[jim mk2]

The Tories have stated they will make £12bn more cuts but refuse to give details of where the cuts will hit. No one should even consider voting for them until they spell out exactly what they intend to do. I have seen for myself the effects of the cuts on the elderly and any party that takes away the dignity of the frail and weak while giving tax cuts to millionaires is despicable in my view.

The economy has improved in the past 2 years only because the Tories have performed their old trick of reflating the property market with "Help to Buy". All talk of rebalancing the economy through a manufacturing revival has been quietly forgotten. In other words, the economy is being built on sand again because property booms always end badly. The relaxation of pension rules is likely to see pension money going into property, inflating the market further.

The fact is the average family is more than £1,200 worse off than 5 years ago. No govt that deliberately impoverishes its voters deserves to be returned to office.

[scotchrover]

There is no real choice, horrendous the lot of them.

I couldn't agree more. What's annoying me most at the minute is that none of the big parties are prepared to say where cuts are going to come.

Labour are planning on cutting tuition fees and rescuing the NHS with more doctors. Where's the money coming from that though? Equally, the Tories are planning massive cuts, but haven't said where. Surely, honest would work wonders in this election!

What I find hilarious though is that UKIP who will support the deficit reduction plans of the Tories, despite the fact they don't yet know what they are. The SNP are edging towards this with Labour too.

[K-Hod]

For me there's only The Green Party that have at least any semblance of quality, but the media have done their best to stitch them up. Labour and Tory are the same but different coloured ties, and one punishes the rich, the other the poor.

Then again, the Lib Dems were once a viable alternative and look how they turned out, they're finished as a political party for me.

Nick Clegg 'if I get into office tuition fees will not increase'. Then went up pretty much straight away....

[yoda]

The Tories have stated they will make £12bn more cuts but refuse to give details of where the cuts will hit. No one should even consider voting for them until they spell out exactly what they intend to do. I have seen for myself the effects of the cuts on the elderly and any party that takes away the dignity of the frail and weak while giving tax cuts to millionaires is despicable in my view.

The economy has improved in the past 2 years only because the Tories have performed their old trick of reflating the property market with "Help to Buy". All talk of rebalancing the economy through a manufacturing revival has been quietly forgotten. In other words, the economy is being built on sand again because property booms always end badly. The relaxation of pension rules is likely to see pension money going into property, inflating the market further.

The fact is the average family is more than £1,200 worse off than 5 years ago. No govt that deliberately impoverishes its voters deserves to be returned to office.

According to the beeb things are improving

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32122804

[thenodrog]

What I find hilarious though is that UKIP who will support the deficit reduction plans of the Tories, despite the fact they don't yet know what they are.

They must have done their sums and agree in principle that there has to be a reduction in public spending. Leaving the way open to haggle over the detail. Bit like treating someone with a severed femoral artery. Everyone will agree that the bleeding has to be stopped with a tourniquet and once that is achieved the choice of suture can be debated at length.

As a nation we face an obesity and diabetes time bomb. Exercise is a key weapon in preventing this, the government has issued clear guidance on the amount of exercise an individual should take each week. At the same time funding which allows the disabled to exercise is being withdrawn or cut meaning those likely to have poor diet and lack exercise have little opportunity to do so. What is needed is joined up thinking, a cut today will offer create a greater cost tomorrow. Other examples within the benefits system and NHS are numerous.

Wrong what is needed is to address the cause, and in the case of obesity the No 1 cause is poor diet. Exercise is good of course but it takes a hell of a lot of that by a fit and healthy human being to burn off a Big Mac and fries.

Oh and you disn't need to mention the NHS it's just about the only thing that labour has left to pitch their challenge on. Milliband never shuts up about it.

[thenodrog]

For me there's only The Green Party that have at least any semblance of quality, but the media have done their best to stitch them up.

Greens? Quality? Struth! Those two words don't even belong in the same sentence. This is hilarious.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/11431756/Green-Partys-Natalie-Bennett-gives-excruciating-radio-interview.html

[thenodrog]

According to the beeb things are improving

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32122804

Interesting. So where did jim get that £1200 per household figure from do you think yoda?

[K-Hod]

Greens? Quality? Struth! Those two words don't even belong in the same sentence. This is hilarious.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/11431756/Green-Partys-Natalie-Bennett-gives-excruciating-radio-interview.html

You're better than that Gordon, I'm far from stupid!!!

Yes, that was bad, but is it any worse than any cringey UKIP or Tory soundbites that are excruciatingly cringeworthy about homosexuals for example??

[scotchrover]

Interesting. So where did jim get that £1200 per household figure from do you think yoda?

I believe Miliband's used it a good few times!

[Baz]

According to the beeb things are improving

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32122804

Well if its improving its because slightly less people feel their financial position is worsening than 1 year previously. Howver you can temper that with the fact more people still feel their financial position is getting worse than better. So it's down to the wording.

This campaign will be close but the nearer to the election, the more the vote will go to the conservatives, unless something major breaks.

If the Labour party members had voted David not Ed, I think this election would be already as good as over and we'd be talking about majority not coalition.

On the continent there is a rapidly growing base of internet based parties, whose members have a direct influence on manifesto, is that the future to end the disenchantment of the current status quo?

[Baz]

Interesting. So where did jim get that £1200 per household figure from do you think yoda?

Average earnings (wages) are down, but household income is up due to having a very rich (relative to previous eras) older non-working population.

Pensioners are the only part of society to have seen a relative growth in income, and have been least affected by austerity measures. Teenagers vice versa. Proof that if you vote, as many older people do and young people dont, that politicians listen.

[Paul]

Wrong what is needed is to address the cause, and in the case of obesity the No 1 cause is poor diet. Exercise is good of course but it takes a hell of a lot of that by a fit and healthy human being to burn off a Big Mac and fries.

Oh and you disn't need to mention the NHS it's just about the only thing that labour has left to pitch their challenge on. Milliband never shuts up about it.

Again I have to comment on your propensity to reply in a manner that suits you rather than what was posted.

My points have related to the elderly, vulnerable and disabled. I think it unlikely these groups are feasting on a Big Mac and Fries on a regular basis. The point is some members of such groups are unable to have adequate exercise without assistance. This has to be funded. If one doesn't exercise on a daily basis, in the way you and I would in our everyday movements, weight gain is an issue.

If we want to discuss the general population's diet and KFC crap or MacDonalds fries that's a different issue. I agree the companies that peddle this rubbish are feeding a very real problem and the nation will have to pick up the bill. Quite how it's achieved I don't know but certain foodstuffs or ingredients should be taxed to reflect the harm caused to the nation's health.

[ABBEY]

Tax kfc & Maccys ? Political suicide .

[Baz]

Again I have to comment on your propensity to reply in a manner that suits you rather than what was posted.

My points have related to the elderly, vulnerable and disabled. I think it unlikely these groups are feasting on a Big Mac and Fries on a regular basis. The point is some members of such groups are unable to have adequate exercise without assistance. This has to be funded. If one doesn't exercise on a daily basis, in the way you and I would in our everyday movements, weight gain is an issue.

If we want to discuss the general population's diet and KFC crap or MacDonalds fries that's a different issue. I agree the companies that peddle this rubbish are feeding a very real problem and the nation will have to pick up the bill. Quite how it's achieved I don't know but certain foodstuffs or ingredients should be taxed to reflect the harm caused to the nation's health.

I Work for a healthcare company who support the NHS in a lot of contracts, and as such I attend quite a few meetings with various layers of nhs/social service management. There are big savings to be made in the nhs/welfare budget by having a joined up approach to care. Proper planning of post-hospital care packages in terms of equipment needed, likely timescales before discharge being shared between the NHS and Social Services could save a fortune in preventing re-admissions, bed-blocking and potentially in staffing costs, there are also massive potential savings in the oncoming tele-health industry. However it's easier to cut things like Pauls example, and is typical short-termism. Andy Burnham speaks a lot of sense on this matter. However the people who could affect those changes at present definitely have a attitude of self-preservation, willingness to make progressive change is not something I have witnessed by more than a couple of the people I have met.

Regarding exercise / diet in the general population, exercise is almost pointless if the diet is badly wrong. I favour education of cooking wholesome healthy meals at school, and making it a subject that all study to 16, its got to be more worthwhile than a subject like RE or English Lit for the masses.

[thenodrog]

You must mean a return to Domestic Science lessons Baz? I couldn't agree more. Basic raw food is so cheap and plentiful that it's unbelievable, but instead people choose to eat ready made, pre prepared microwave rubbish.

[Baz]

You must mean a return to Domestic Science lessons Baz? I couldn't agree more. Basic raw food is so cheap and plentiful that it's unbelievable, but instead people choose to eat ready made, pre prepared microwave rubbish.

It was called home economics in my day, but yes, as long as it is done properly, (all we did at school was make cake).

I think theres a lot of people who just dont realise the rubbish not only in ready meals, but also in jars of pasta sauce etc.. why buy rubbish when you can make your own cheaper, tastier, healthier and if your organised not very much longer?

[jim mk2]

There was a documentary on BBC about 2 weeks ago about the amount of sugar in ready meals and pasta sauces in particular. A real eye-opener.

Back on the election, our PM-in-waiting will tomorrow outline plans to outlaw zero hours contracts. About time too.

[ABBEY]

Zero hour = evil

[Gav]

I can't stand the Tories and their southern biased and pandering to the hedge funds.

But equally I can't see Miliband and Balls running the country, they're like Laurel and Hardy.

So despite all the @#/? and wind so far in this thread it's catch 22 situation for most that will admit to it.

People died for the vote, but Im seriously considering not voting this time around as no party has any interest in the common man or woman, career politicians out for themselves.

[Andyblue2]

You may not like Cameron and his lads but the Tories have always been better than labour with the purse strings and right now Miliband and Balls are just complete buffoons and cannot be voted in. Obviously, if you have a @#/? job and need topping up to buy the luxuries that others work hard for, then labour is the party for you.