The Relegation Thread

[Bigdoggsteel]

Just now, JacknOry said:

L1 it is then.

They will get a bounce for sure - even before him it was stacked against us hoping we could claw 3 points on them...now its inevitable they will probably get more points than we do from the final games.

All we can do is win Saturday and not worry about other teams. 

[TurkishDelightFan]

Now that Birmingham have appointed Redknapp I think they will get a win and won't get relegated. I think it is no between us and Forest to go down. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

Just now, TurkishDelightFan said:

Now that Birmingham have appointed Redknapp I think they will get a win and won't get relegated. I think it is no between us and Forest to go down. 

If we win Saturday and they lose Sunday, we will be looking at us playing Villa in the following game where a win for us could relegate them if they fail to win. That is how tight it is. 

[Butty]

Redknapp is one of the most over-rated managers about. That might be a tad harsh but my thoughts on him are worsened by the fact I can't stand him and I think he's a pr@t. Would love too see Birmingham go down now!

[superniko]

Just to put some numbers on it.

Rovers are 8/13 to be relegated now (with margin) so more realistically a 4/6 - 8/11 chance of relegation when you take out bookmaker margin.

To put this another way, we have a 60% (4/6) chance of relegation and a 40% chance of staying up (6/4). Not all settled yet looking at that 

Looking at Saturday:

Everyone has us nailed on to lose to Wolves but we're about 8/11 to Draw OR Win. Therefore 58% chance to pick up at least a Draw. 

Bookmakers do not rate Reading at all, they went off 11/8 at home against us I think! Forest are jollies against them but we have to pray for a slip up  

Would I have taken 4 points from the last 2 games? Yes

Would I have taken 4 points from the last 3 games? No BUT given the Forest and Brum result over those 3 games then it's not so bad, and we lost he correct game out of the 3 (if that makes sense).

2 wins and we're safe, 1 win and 2 draws and we're safe, anything else and it's touch and go.

I can see us needing a win at Brentford to stay up. Could be a cracker. Either way, id have taken that thoughout Coyle reign....we've been in the bottom 3 all season. 

[NinjaTattoo]

I still think 49 will secure it, 'arry at Birmingham is desperado time will it be enough can he get 2 points? or a win? 

but looking at the last 10 games at teams at the bottom we have collected more points than 3 other teams even if Birmingham survive I'd be more worried if I was a Forest fan. 

I dont believe that any team has a harder run in than another team, 
15 bristol city 
13 burton
07 brum
09 forest
11 rovers
10 wigan 
 

[Bigdoggsteel]

Just now, superniko said:

Just to put some numbers on it.

Rovers are 8/13 to be relegated now (with margin) so more realistically a 4/6 - 8/11 chance of relegation when you take out bookmaker margin.

To put this another way, we have a 60% (4/6) chance of relegation and a 40% chance of staying up (6/4). Not all settled yet looking at that 

Looking at Saturday:

Everyone has us nailed on to lose to Wolves but we're about 8/11 to Draw OR Win. Therefore 58% chance to pick up at least a Draw. 

Bookmakers do not rate Reading at all, they went off 11/8 at home against us I think! Forest are jollies against them but we have to pray for a slip up  

Would I have taken 4 points from the last 2 games? Yes

Would I have taken 4 points from the last 3 games? No BUT given the Forest and Brum result over those 3 games then it's not so bad, and we lost he correct game out of the 3 (if that makes sense).

2 wins and we're safe, 1 win and 2 draws and we're safe, anything else and it's touch and go.

I can see us needing a win at Brentford to stay up. Could be a cracker. Either way, id have taken that thoughout Coyle reign....we've been in the bottom 3 all season. 

Reading could be bet of the weekend so. if we can beat Forest at home, why shouldn't Reading? 

[AllRoverAsia]

2 minutes ago, Butty said:

Redknapp is one of the most over-rated managers about. That might be a tad harsh but my thoughts on him are worsened by the fact I can't stand him and I think he's a pr@t. Would love too see Birmingham go down now!

Same here! Can't stand the Spiv who makes Del Boy look like a Cub Scout.

He will screw Brum for cash for sure.

Arry will inspire Villa to beat Big Club 

Edited April 18, 2017 by AllRoverAsia

[Blue blood]

Once again I'm swinging - this time towards optimism. 4"points isn't ideal but is a decent return. Bristol and Burton are safe Imo and have the look of teams surviving. But Forest and Brum seem in worse positions to me. Don't rate Redknapp and although they may get new managers bounce given they didn't under Zola it could well not happen again. Forest also don't look likely to pick up points either having thrown away a couple of games they should have got something from.

Of course we could still implode and get no points but I still think we have just enough in our locker to scrape the points needed to survive.

[Bigdoggsteel]

If we win on Saturday, I think we will be ok. I can't see Birmingham beating Villa away on Sunday under that pressure. 

That will leave them needing to better our result the following week to not go into the last day bottom. 

[DE.]

Let's just remind ourselves of our last five results...

Brighton 0-1 L
Reading 1-3 L
Barnsley 0-2 L
Forest 1-0 W
Bristol City 1-1 D

4 points out of 15, with some very winnable games in there, doesn't suggest to me that we're on the way to safety. 

[Mr. E]

Yeah, that's all she wrote then. Brum are not going down, they'll get at least one win with Harry Redknapp. Needing something close to a miracle here.

My only refuge in all of this is that my brain is still not fully processing all that is happening to us. I dread the moment that it does.

[chaddyrovers]

Can Redknapp work his magic in 3 games? I have my doubts. 

Its going to be tough 

[Bigdoggsteel]

9 minutes ago, DE. said:

Let's just remind ourselves of our last five results...

Brighton 0-1 L
Reading 1-3 L
Barnsley 0-2 L
Forest 1-0 W
Bristol City 1-1 D

4 points out of 15, with some very winnable games in there, doesn't suggest to me that we're on the way to safety. 

It was really just the Barnsley result. I would bet people would have taken 4 points from our last 2 games if offered it beforehand. A point against Reading and Brighton would have been great, but you could not say we expected to get anything. We very nearly did get something mind. 

Tight margins. 

[DE.]

People on here have been "taking" bad results all season and we've duly spent most of it in the relegation zone. 

[RevidgeBlue]

8 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Can Redknapp work his magic in 3 games? I have my doubts. 

Its going to be tough 

I could see that all ending in tears long term but he's the sort of manager who can probably get a bit of a reaction over 3 games. Plus, they do still have a bit in the Bank.

Us v Forest now I think.

[Tom]

Spoke to a QPR fan this morning that thinks it will seal Brums relegation.

I think he would fail in the long term but do enough over 3 games as I think they only need a point.

[Lancaster Rover]

Forest have been sleepwalking toward relegation, they could well be that team that spends all season outside the relegation places only to drop in on the last day.

[Gav]

The word in the Midlands is the players quite simply never bought into the owners or Zola's pretty passing style of football and are much better than results suggest.

I myself think thats a bit ominous, we all know what player power can do, if they spit the dummy often the managers out of his ear.

As for all the posters slan o Arry for being a poor manager, he's widely credited for the current crop or Spurs players charging towards the Premiership title, food for thought maybe?

Edited April 18, 2017 by Gav

[RevidgeBlue]

1 hour ago, DE. said:

Let's just remind ourselves of our last five results...

Brighton 0-1 L
Reading 1-3 L
Barnsley 0-2 L
Forest 1-0 W
Bristol City 1-1 D

4 points out of 15, with some very winnable games in there, doesn't suggest to me that we're on the way to safety. 

We have 15 points from twelve games under Mowbray which at first glance looks very respectable. Unfortunately however ten of those fifteen points came from his first 6 games and the last 6 games have only yielded 5 points which isn't that dissimilar to Coyle who only managed 9 points from his last 12 games in charge.

I don't see there being much for us in the last 3 games if I'm being honest but if there is we need to get back to whatever we were doing in Mowbrays first 6 games.

[Commondore]

The way I see it, Bristol was the toughest game of our run-in and we got out of it with a point. Wolves, Villa and Brentford are all halfway to the beach by now, 7 points from those games shouldn't be a Herculean task. Not that we've been pulling off any kinds of tasks during the season leading up to this, but still...   

[speeeeeeedie]

Just now, Commondore said:

The way I see it, Bristol was the toughest game of our run-in and we got out of it with a point. Wolves, Villa and Brentford are all halfway to the beach by now, 7 points from those games shouldn't be a Herculean task. Not that we've been pulling off any kinds of tasks during the season leading up to this, but still...   

Unfortunately your proviso relies on Rovers having some sort of form in them. As of 43 games they are bottom 3 material. I don't see how it will change in 3 games, considering an insipid performance against Barnsley, and a woeful first hour yesterday.

Redknapp is no sure thing either. The Birmingham players may have been underperforming all season but they may be too far gone to fix in such a short space of time. He didn't save Southampton from relegation a few years back.

[islander200]

A lot of the villa lads will know they are playing for their future so don't expect that to be an easy game.Was kodgia red card a straight is he out for the rovers match?

[lraC]

On the basis that my coupon always loses, I have been taking a look at this weekends fixed odds. On sky bet at the minute if you back Wolves -1 goal, forest + one goal and Birmingham to win, then the odds on that for the treble are  approximately 6.5 times your stake. In other words put £100 on and it would give you a profit of £650. If the bet wins I be down in the dumps and will need the £650 to go on holiday and forget.

 

[RevidgeBlue]

Just now, lraC said:

On the basis that my coupon always loses, I have been taking a look at this weekends fixed odds. On sky bet at the minute if you back Wolves -1 goal, forest + one goal and Birmingham to win, then the odds on that for the treble are  approximately 6.5 times your stake. In other words put £100 on and it would give you a profit of £650. If the bet wins I be down in the dumps and will need the £650 to go on holiday and forget.

 

If I did that, Wolves would beat us by one knackering up both us and the bet. I'll steer well clear of that one!

Edited April 18, 2017 by RevidgeBlue