The Relegation Thread

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

2 hours ago, Waggy76 said:

This thread could get very interesting , the fact it is resurrected is further condemnation of Mowbray ....

Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't this thread come up every year Mowbray has been here bar the promotion season ?

[Waggy76]

5 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't this thread come up every year Mowbray has been here bar the promotion season ?

Quite possible ...

Tells it own story in a way ..

[Blue blood]

Ita a sad state of affairs when we are looking down instead of up and I can certainly see the similarities to 99 - tons of injuries, a constantly changed team and too good to go down/complacency. One other thing making relegation more likely is that we know TM won't be sacked. He and his mates have their pockets to line from.the training ground so there won't be any sacking and subsequrnt reaction that you usually get even if you get a duffer as the new manager. 

That said I still think we will stay up. It's still a three game swing needed despite us losing 4 on the bounce. We have played badly a ton of times and got points. Heck, even the last two dire performances have only been lost be a single goal (even though it should have been more.) So scraping points is something I think we will continue to do even if playing badly. Given the inconsistency in this league and anyone beating anyone, that just increases the odds of us getting the occasional win. We have a few players who are capable of a bit of magic digging us out of a hole too. Factor in Wycombe have effectively meant that it's two relegation places up for grabs and a lot of dross at the bottom end of the table and we should be fine. 

Would I bet on a top half finish - probably not. But relegated I don't see that happening this year. Next year without Armstrong could well be a different story though. 

[MarkBRFC]

4 hours ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't this thread come up every year Mowbray has been here bar the promotion season ?

It didn't come up last season as it never looked a possibility.

I dont think it is this season either, looking at that photo of Hulls drop last season though does put it in your mind a little though.

[gumboots]

Its never safe until its mathematically safe. 

[rigger]

5 hours ago, davulsukur said:

Sounds like we are going to be without Gallagher and Nyambe for a while. 

Mowbray has said he's "done his hamstring" but without going into much detail but the article says he expects both to be out for a while.

So, its Bennett or THB for the foreseeable at right back.

https://www.rovers.co.uk/news/2021/february/injury-update-sam-gallagher-and-ryan-nyambe/

Why is Pike never mentioned as cover for right-back?

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

38 minutes ago, gumboots said:

Its never safe until its mathematically safe. 

Yes, I remember Blackpool getting relegated and they weren't ever in the drop zone until about 10 minutes from the end of the last game of the season.

[gumboots]

48 minutes ago, rigger said:

Why is Pike never mentioned as cover for right-back?

Because he's not supposed to tell us his name?

 

[Cuppliance]

I don’t think we are in threat of relegation. We are 10 points off the top 6 and everyone is saying the play off is out of the picture and at the same time we are 10 points off the bottom 3 and people are thinking we are relation threatened. Generally speaking the teams at the top win more than the teams at the bottom so I’d say relegation is not on the cards for the rest of the season.

[Mattyblue]

The way the bottom 6 are picking up results this season it’s going to be a 50/51 survival line, like it was when we dropped.

We need 12 points, we probably will pick those up, but I wouldn’t put my house on it with Watford, Reading, Swansea, Brentford and Norwich coming up before the March international break...

[davulsukur]

2 hours ago, rigger said:

Why is Pike never mentioned as cover for right-back?

I'm just going on Mowbrays history with the right back spot. He's often played Bennett there and he's already given THB game time there.

I'd much rather Pike was developed in our first team for the rest of the season, instead of developing the City loanee but you already know what Mowbray will do.

[rigger]

1 hour ago, gumboots said:

Because he's not supposed to tell us his name?

 

Now now captain Mainwaring, your name will be on the list.

[davulsukur]

March fixtures:

Reading (away)

Millwall (away)

Swansea (home)

Brentford (home)

Bristol City (home)

Norwich (away)

Even after that we have Wycombe but then Bournemouth and then Derby. How many wins can we see from this? Not many, if any.

As it stands we have 40 points, Rotherham (29), Sheff wed (28) & Wycombe (23) make up the bottom 3. Will any of those overtake us? The other teams in and around the bottom 3 have at least 34 points. Only 2 wins off us (or less) 

We might just be relying on the bottom 3 picking up too few points to keep us up here.

Shambles.

[Blue blood]

1 hour ago, davulsukur said:

As it stands we have 40 points, Rotherham (29), Sheff wed (28) & Wycombe (23) make up the bottom 3. Will any of those overtake us? The other teams in and around the bottom 3 have at least 34 points. Only 2 wins off us (or less) 

We might just be relying on the bottom 3 picking up too few points to keep us up here.

Shambles.

It's been a tried and tested formula under Venkys. (And a failed one too on occasions...) That said in this case I think the bottom 3 are looking sunk. It's a hell of a swing needed and yesterday's mighty point actually took us a point further away from relegation, so still very confident we won't go down. Agree it's a shambles we are relying on this. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

47 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

It's been a tried and tested formula under Venkys. (And a failed one too on occasions...) That said in this case I think the bottom 3 are looking sunk. It's a hell of a swing needed and yesterday's mighty point actually took us a point further away from relegation, so still very confident we won't go down. Agree it's a shambles we are relying on this. 

 50 points weren't good enough last time. We need 3 wins at least from somewhere.

[davulsukur]

55 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

It's been a tried and tested formula under Venkys. (And a failed one too on occasions...) That said in this case I think the bottom 3 are looking sunk. It's a hell of a swing needed and yesterday's mighty point actually took us a point further away from relegation, so still very confident we won't go down. Agree it's a shambles we are relying on this. 

My concern is that we only have 2/3 wins more than Rotherham and Sheff wed, Rotherham have a game in hand on us as well. So they are both winning as many games as us, but now we've stopped winning all together. They will still pick up wins  whilst we probably won't.

I can't see where our next win is coming from under Mowbray, this death spiral isnt ending and is probably the worst one I can remember.

Its a very real possibility that we won't win a game in march.

Edited February 28, 2021 by davulsukur

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1 minute ago, davulsukur said:

My concern is that we only have 2/3 wins more than Rotherham and Sheff wed, Rotherham have a game in hand on us as well.

I can't see where our next win is coming from under Mowbray, this death spiral isnt ending and is probably the worst one I can remember.

Its a very real possibility that we won't win a game in march.

This " death spiral " has been going on since before Xmas in terms of form. Without a change at the top I can't see it ending. The players seem not to be playing for him anymore, and who can blame them.

 

[booth]

16 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

 50 points weren't good enough last time. We need 3 wins at least from somewhere.

It’s reyt Mowbray said we were getting 70 points this season 🙄

[booth]

7 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

This " death spiral " has been going on since before Xmas in terms of form. Without a change at the top I can't see it ending. The players seem not to be playing for him anymore, and who can blame them.

 

Last ten minutes of the second half they clearly weren’t going for a winner. Passing it about at the back like it was a training session. Reminded me of that Man Utd game with Keantaro in charge.

[callumrovers]

31 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

This " death spiral " has been going on since before Xmas in terms of form. Without a change at the top I can't see it ending. The players seem not to be playing for him anymore, and who can blame them.

 

You can blame them aswell. The least i expect 100% commitment every game. We are not getting that.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1 minute ago, callumrovers said:

You can blame them aswell. The least i expect 100% commitment every game. We are not getting that.

I agree. With the odd exception I can't recall us ever busting a gut. The lack of ability to score in the first half and our failure to come back from behind in games speaks volumes. However when the direction from above is chronically poor you will find that players individually and collectively down tools.

[Blue blood]

50 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

 50 points weren't good enough last time. We need 3 wins at least from somewhere.

Yes that was my target for us, 3 wins of which I thought Coventry would be one, Wycombe and Rotherham the other two. It wasn't good enough last time but this time I struggle to see the bottom 3 or 4 teams getting anywhere near 50 points. Not a defence of TM, just to be clear, it's shocking we are having to discuss this. 

44 minutes ago, davulsukur said:

My concern is that we only have 2/3 wins more than Rotherham and Sheff wed, Rotherham have a game in hand on us as well. So they are both winning as many games as us, but now we've stopped winning all together. They will still pick up wins  whilst we probably won't.

I can't see where our next win is coming from under Mowbray, this death spiral isnt ending and is probably the worst one I can remember.

Its a very real possibility that we won't win a game in march.

I hear and share your concerns. Agree we look very unlikely to win and an absolute shower on current performances. No arguments on how bad we are.

That said it is a minimum of 3 wins for Rotherham and Wednesday to catch us up, 4 to overtake us. They aren't getting masses of wins, so can't see them catching up anytime soon. Let's say these two teams have a win rate of 1 in 4, with 15-ish games to go that means it will run out of games before they can overtake us. If they get a 1 in 3 run, then it takes about a dozen games to overtake us. In this scenario 1 more win for us, or a number of draws, would see them run out of games. Being honest I can't see us winning more than a couple of games, but I can't see Rotherham or Wednesday having a better than 1 in 3 record. And even a number of draws for us makes it more difficult for them to overtake us.

So yeah it's come to the crapness of the opposition and them running out of games to keep us safe. Were we talking in December or Jan I would have a different view. End of Feb with the gap we have though - it's asking a lot of Rotherham and Wednesday to overtake us. 

[davulsukur]

2 hours ago, Blue blood said:

Yes that was my target for us, 3 wins of which I thought Coventry would be one, Wycombe and Rotherham the other two. It wasn't good enough last time but this time I struggle to see the bottom 3 or 4 teams getting anywhere near 50 points. Not a defence of TM, just to be clear, it's shocking we are having to discuss this. 

I hear and share your concerns. Agree we look very unlikely to win and an absolute shower on current performances. No arguments on how bad we are.

That said it is a minimum of 3 wins for Rotherham and Wednesday to catch us up, 4 to overtake us. They aren't getting masses of wins, so can't see them catching up anytime soon. Let's say these two teams have a win rate of 1 in 4, with 15-ish games to go that means it will run out of games before they can overtake us. If they get a 1 in 3 run, then it takes about a dozen games to overtake us. In this scenario 1 more win for us, or a number of draws, would see them run out of games. Being honest I can't see us winning more than a couple of games, but I can't see Rotherham or Wednesday having a better than 1 in 3 record. And even a number of draws for us makes it more difficult for them to overtake us.

So yeah it's come to the crapness of the opposition and them running out of games to keep us safe. Were we talking in December or Jan I would have a different view. End of Feb with the gap we have though - it's asking a lot of Rotherham and Wednesday to overtake us. 

Aye you're probably correct. Let's hope so anyway.

If it is wasn't for sheff weds points deduction, we could very well be heading back to league one.

Edited February 28, 2021 by davulsukur

[Bigdoggsteel]

This is a real and present danger now. Shocking we have ended up here really. The warning signs were there though. The last shit run, which started in that bizzare game against Bristol , should have done it. In the past, we got going again, it was different this time though. We never looked decent. Fluked a few and now on the death spiral of all death spirals

For the love of God, sack Mowbray and give the new manager time!!!

They could sack Mowbray a month after the season ends. Like nothing would surprise me with these clowns. 

 

[Mattyblue]

18 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

 

They could sack Mowbray a month after the season ends. Like nothing would surprise me with these clowns. 

 

That’s by far the most likely time he would go as the summer Pune summit is seemingly the only time of the year they give Rovers any attention