The Relegation Thread

[Blue blood]

6 hours ago, JHRover said:

Whatever the result tonight we are still in trouble and will be until we win a game or limp our way there through draws.

A Rotherham win puts them 5 behind with 2 in hand and still to play us at their place. Scary.

A draw still closes the gap to 7 with 2 in hand and still to play us at home.

A defeat for Rotherham puts Cov a mere 2 points behind us and still only leaves us 8 clear with Rotherham having games in hand and still to play us.

In short it's in our hands but we need to win one somewhere along the way which should do the trick. Fail to do so and we deserve relegation as it will be 1 win in 20.

Thinking about it we need one or two of the teams below us to go on a run and be virtually safe before they play us. That way at least they might be in holiday mode which would give us a chance. 

 

[Bigdoggsteel]

Bad loss for Rotherham that. Birmingham next,if they lose that we are probably safe

[RevidgeBlue]

If Rotherham fade we could hypothetically not win another game and stay up with one win in 20.

What a shambles.

[Richard Oakley]

That was a result that went our way. Rotherham still have 2 games in hand on us and we have to play them, so we aren't technically out of the woods, yet. An unexpected win against Derby would certainly help, not that we do things the easy way.

[Stuart]

With Rotherham losing it’s now in our own hands.

Not sure whether to feel comforted or worried!

[47er]

Even our most recent form is alarming---3 draws and 2 losses from last 5 games.

That is nailed-on relegation form. We would go into the last game with 50 points if that were to be repeated.

Probably OK but not definite.

[bboy]

The season has been a weird one and a huge disappointment.

 

There is one game that defined our season was Bristol City Away. To paint a picture our form into that game was P16 W7 D4 L 5  GF 31 GA 19. PPG was 1.56 Our defence wasn’t great but we always pressed from the front and Armstrong was on fire 14 goals from 15 games. We were only 6 points from top spot and had showed great fight against Brentford away a few days earlier.  I remember that game Armstrong took a huge amount of chances looking more desperate as he shot on sight and the late winner shot our confidence and derailed us. 

 

Since then Armstrong has scored 7 in 20 our form since has been P25 W 5 D 7 L 13 GF 21 GA 28 PPG 0.88. our goals conceded per game has stayed stable but the goals dried up.

 

This isn’t a post against Armstrong by the way but our reliance on him. I also found after that game our forwards slowly became more selfish (the free flowing upfront passing between our forwards) and possession became much more backwards (that actually started vs Barnsley 4 games earlier)

 

I actually found the start of the season so exciting to watch but things changed where we seems obsessed by stats opposed to football. It’s a shame but it’s now time for a change. I’m just hoping we stay up…

Edited April 16, 2021 by bboy

[Sparks Rover]

14 minutes ago, bboy said:

I’m just hoping we stay up…

Exactly.  We could well get no more points the way its going now.  The team look devoid of ideas and Mowbray looks beaten.

Our current points tally of 47 would have us next to bottom at the end of last season.

[Blue blood]

I'll say this. If TM was a tad unlucky 52 points were needed for safety last time round he is VERY lucky that the bar is likely to be so low this year. 

[oldjamfan1]

12 hours ago, bboy said:

The season has been a weird one and a huge disappointment.

I actually found the start of the season so exciting to watch but things changed where we seems obsessed by stats opposed to football. It’s a shame but it’s not time for a change. I’m just hoping we stay up…

Its not a shame, its completely unacceptable and I'm afraid it very much is time for a change, and has been for quite some time now.

[Richard Oakley]

It comes to something very bad when we're relying on other teams to beat the current bottom 3 so they can't overtake us on our current points tally.

Wycombe 5 games 48 points max - defeat by Swansea at the weekend means they can't overtake us.

Sheff Wed 5 games 50 points max - defeat this weekend would mean they could finish level on 47 points with us, but we have a +25 GD with them currently

Rotherham 7 games 60 points max - say Cardiff did you realise you could be mathematically relegated? I expect them to win away at Reading tonight to remove that possibility. Rotherham will overhaul us if they win 2 of their other 6 games and beat us.

[MarkBRFC]

Cant imagine Rotherham are going to win 3 out of there last 6 and we'll lose all 6.

[Richard Oakley]

2 minutes ago, MarkBRFC said:

Cant imagine Rotherham are going to win 3 out of there last 6 and we'll lose all 6.

Rotherham play us, Birmingham, Luton, Middlesborough, Barnsley, Brentford and Cardiff. I've grouped the 3 games I think Rotherham will win at the beginning of the list.

[AllRoverAsia]

Coventry and Big Club will finish above us whilst we give 21st a good go.

Mowbray will not know.

[DE.]

We won't drop, but so far in 2021 we've had all the hallmarks of a team destined for the drop. Lucky we got the points we did during the first half of the season. If Mowbray stays on for next season I think there's a very good chance he'll take us down, or be heavily responsible for doing so if he's sacked part way through the campaign and the new appointment can't keep us up.

[1864roverite]

Tonight’s line up destined to fail and allow derby to close the gap to 1 point

[bboy]

5 hours ago, oldjamfan1 said:

Its not a shame, its completely unacceptable and I'm afraid it very much is time for a change, and has been for quite some time now.

Bloody spelling 

Replace not with now. Mowbray needs to go.

[oldjamfan1]

3 minutes ago, bboy said:

Bloody spelling 

Replace not with now. Mowbray needs to go.

😂😂😂what a difference one letter makes 

[Stuart]

Anybody else see this...?

[Richard Oakley]

We aren't in any danger, now, of sitting in 22nd come Wednesday 10pm. The win means we can't be overtaken by Wycombe or, unless there's a dramatic turnaround in goal difference, by Sheffield Wednesday. I don't see Rotherham winning 4 of their last 7. Derby can finish on 55 points, so the mathematically certainty of safety rests on 56 points or a couple more victories.

Victory for us at Wednesday on Tuesday coupled with a defeat for Derby at Preston would assure of safety and championship football again next season.

We could finish on 62 points in 8th - highly unlikely of course, but it seems absurd that such a high finish is still mathematically possible this late in the season. We still have to play teams currently in 19, 20, 22 and 23, in what must be the easiest run in, on paper, for any team.

I'm not counting my chickens, just yet. (apologies for the very poor pun)

Edited April 17, 2021 by Richard Oakley

[bboy]

1 hour ago, Richard Oakley said:

We aren't in any danger, now, of sitting in 22nd come Wednesday 10pm. The win means we can't be overtaken by Wycombe and unless there's a dramatic turnaround in goal difference by Sheffield Wednesday. I don't see Rotherham winning 4 of their last 7. Derby can finish on 55 points, so the mathematically certainty of safety rests on 56 points or a couple more victories.

Victory for us at Wednesday on Tuesday couple with a defeat for Derby at Preston would assure of safety and championship football again next season.

We could finish on 62 points in 8th - highly unlikely of course, but it seems absurd that such a high finish is still mathematically possible this late in the season. We still have to play teams currently in 19, 20, 22 and 23, in what must be the easiest run in, on paper, for any team.

I'm not counting my chickens, just yet. (apologies for the very poor pun)

I want us to win every game and nothing will ever change that so I'm all for another 12 points. However i hope the small chance of a good end of season doesn't stop the need for a change of management. It would worry me all like the day Steve Kean managed to steal a few decent final results and keep us up against Wolves and he was given a clean slate prior to the season of doom.

 

[Richard Oakley]

15 hours ago, bboy said:

I want us to win every game and nothing will ever change that so I'm all for another 12 points. However i hope the small chance of a good end of season doesn't stop the need for a change of management. It would worry me all like the day Steve Kean managed to steal a few decent final results and keep us up against Wolves and he was given a clean slate prior to the season of doom.

 

That is I think a worry for a lot of us on here that a few wins will keep Mowbray here over the summer and into next season.

[Blue blood]

Think TM has been very, very lucky this year that we aren't staring relegation in the face. 

Three wins where blatant penalties weren't given to the opposition makes a massive difference to where we are. (Ok in fairness 2 games, the Millwall one was the refs fault for the kit clash). Those extra 4 to 6 points makes all the difference. 

Sheffield Wednesday without a points deduction would make a huge difference to the dynamics of the table. Having their manager seriously ill with Covid cannot have helped them either. 

An outbreak of Covid at Rotherham also helps TM as playing that many games in such a short spell of time cannot be good for their energy levels and recovery. This also may influence how many points they get. 

In short I think there is a ton of chance, although in Moore's case I am hesitant to call it that and acknowledge the seriousness of it, that has saved us from relegation this year. Sure there's always external factors but this year in particular our survival is more by chance then design. 

[Stuart]

On 16/04/2021 at 23:02, Richard Oakley said:

We aren't in any danger, now, of sitting in 22nd come Wednesday 10pm. The win means we can't be overtaken by Wycombe or, unless there's a dramatic turnaround in goal difference, by Sheffield Wednesday. I don't see Rotherham winning 4 of their last 7. Derby can finish on 55 points, so the mathematically certainty of safety rests on 56 points or a couple more victories.

Victory for us at Wednesday on Tuesday coupled with a defeat for Derby at Preston would assure of safety and championship football again next season.

We could finish on 62 points in 8th - highly unlikely of course, but it seems absurd that such a high finish is still mathematically possible this late in the season. We still have to play teams currently in 19, 20, 22 and 23, in what must be the easiest run in, on paper, for any team.

I'm not counting my chickens, just yet. (apologies for the very poor pun)

We aren’t fully out of the woods yet but it is definitely in our own hands. Draws against our relegation rivals basically kills off their hopes. What works in our favour is the don’t have to catch us, just their nearest rival.

As it is, if we were to lose every one of our final four matches (unlikely) then this is the minimum that needs to happen for us to go down...

( ) = Games in hand; bold = vs Rovers

Results need to be broadly in this order due to the other relegation rivals involved.

Rotherham

Total so far 40/120 (33.3%)

Need 12/21 (57.1%)

Or (DL)DWWWD

 

Birmingham

Total so far 46/126 (36.5%)

6/15 (40%)

Or (D)DLDW 

 

Derby

Total so far 43/126 (34.1%)

Need 8/12 (66.7%)

Or WWDD

 

[dallydally]

Rotherham lost to Birmingham in 88th minute. They are running out of games in hand