The Relegation Thread

[Richard Oakley]

2 hours ago, Stuart said:

We aren’t fully out of the woods yet but it is definitely in our own hands. Draws against our relegation rivals basically kills off their hopes. What works in our favour is the don’t have to catch us, just their nearest rival.

As it is, if we were to lose every one of our final four matches (unlikely)

 

Why is unlikely for us to lose our last 4 games? All the teams below us down to and including Rotherham can surpass our 50 point total, mathematically speaking. The question is how likely it is. For Forest, Preston, Birmingham and Huddersfield it is very likely. Coventry need 6 points, Derby 8 and Rotherham 12. At the wrong end of the table the more points needed, the less likely. Rotherham lost a game today I thought they'd win. From our point of view that Luton and Middlesborough have nothing to play for hurts us. I'd already put Luton down as a game I think Rotherham will win. I'm not bothered about which teams go down.

On the other hand, two wins secures our Championship status. If we win on Tuesday and Derby lose, we'll be safe. If I thought relegation would see the back of Team Mowbray, I'd be all for it, but I don't see which division we're in as determining their fate. I want us to secure safety on Tuesday with the help of our 'friends' in Preston.

There's no money paid out based on the position the team finishes in, so it doesn't matter if we finish 7th or 21st. From a season Mowbray told us playoffs were the minimum acceptable outcome to securing our survival is a massive let down. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1 hour ago, Richard Oakley said:

Why is unlikely for us to lose our last 4 games? All the teams below us down to and including Rotherham can surpass our 50 point total, mathematically speaking. The question is how likely it is. For Forest, Preston, Birmingham and Huddersfield it is very likely. Coventry need 6 points, Derby 8 and Rotherham 12. At the wrong end of the table the more points needed, the less likely. Rotherham lost a game today I thought they'd win. From our point of view that Luton and Middlesborough have nothing to play for hurts us. I'd already put Luton down as a game I think Rotherham will win. I'm not bothered about which teams go down.

On the other hand, two wins secures our Championship status. If we win on Tuesday and Derby lose, we'll be safe. If I thought relegation would see the back of Team Mowbray, I'd be all for it, but I don't see which division we're in as determining their fate. I want us to secure safety on Tuesday with the help of our 'friends' in Preston.

There's no money paid out based on the position the team finishes in, so it doesn't matter if we finish 7th or 21st. From a season Mowbray told us playoffs were the minimum acceptable outcome to securing our survival is a massive let down. 

I fancied Big Club to beat Rotherham today, they’ve gone on a good run of form since they appointed Lee Bowyer.

[chaddyrovers]

6 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I fancied Big Club to beat Rotherham today, they’ve gone on a good run of form since they appointed Lee Bowyer.

Bowyer has gone 2 up front since taking charge and getting the ball into the box for Jutkiewicz and his strike partner. 

Played 3-5-2 today. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1 minute ago, chaddyrovers said:

Bowyer has gone 2 up front since taking charge and getting the ball into the box for Jutkiewicz and his strike partner. 

Played 3-5-2 today. 

I’d fancy Big Club to beat us at the moment if there was something riding on the result. As it is it looks like both teams will be safe by then so who knows what teams will turn out at Ewood.

[chaddyrovers]

7 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I’d fancy Big Club to beat us at the moment if there was something riding on the result. As it is it looks like both teams will be safe by then so who knows what teams will turn out at Ewood.

Bowyer has had an impact there since joining them but why would not play to your main striker strengths like Karanka did

[Cuppliance]

As my dad always used to say “I’d rather have points on the board than games in hand.” For the most part I‘ve noticed that tends to be the most beneficial scenario. I think we will be safe and the boring Yorkshire club goes down.

[47er]

On 16/04/2021 at 06:23, Richard Oakley said:

That was a result that went our way. Rotherham still have 2 games in hand on us and we have to play them, so we aren't technically out of the woods, yet. An unexpected win against Derby would certainly help, not that we do things the easy way.

I'm confident we won't go down. I think we are safe.

What worries me is that this is what counts as success at Ewood these days!

[Richard Oakley]

2 minutes ago, 47er said:

What worries me is that this is what counts as success at Ewood these days!

Me too!

[Gordon Gekko]

Rotherham winning, albeit down to 10 men

[rigger]

22 minutes ago, Gordon Gekko said:

Rotherham winning, albeit down to 10 men

Derby are less likely to catch us than Rotherham, Derby have to win all three games. That will see us safe. Top 6 next season.

COYB

[arbitro]

53 minutes ago, Gordon Gekko said:

Rotherham winning, albeit down to 10 men

They are losing 2-1 now. If it stays that way they will be four points behind Derby with two games in hand although out of their five remaining games only one is at home.

[rigger]

We are not going down this season.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

6 minutes ago, arbitro said:

They are losing 2-1 now. If it stays that way they will be four points behind Derby with two games in hand although out of their five remaining games only one is at home.

I’m not sure home or away means much these days.

[broadsword]

42 minutes ago, rigger said:

Derby are less likely to catch us than Rotherham, Derby have to win all three games. That will see us safe. Top 6 next season.

COYB

Expected league position? 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

2 minutes ago, broadsword said:

Expected league position? 

If nothing changes at the top where we are now in the league will be considered a success story.

[rigger]

9 minutes ago, broadsword said:

Expected league position? 

21st this season.

Edited April 21, 2021 by rigger

[broadsword]

Yep. No one runs a football club this way, because it is a template for disaster

With no changes, our current form will continue and we'll be ten points adrift at Christmas 

[AllRoverAsia]

A week ago I went for 21st. at season end.

I now think 20th as Derby are awful.

Coventry currently above us on points! The club Total Mess ran out on.

[JHRover]

This season has been littered with bad stats but I think there are a few honours still up for grabs yet.

We need a minimum of 2 points from our remaining 3 games to surpass the 51 points we went down with in 2017. A failure to surpass that figure will take some explaining from the pilot of our journey.

We have now lost the same number of games, 19, as during our entire relegation season, so a defeat in any of our remaining fixtures will mean we have lost more than that Coyle coached relegation side - abysmal.

We are just about to be overtaken by Coventry, fresh out of League One and skint. This is particularly relevant not just because it makes a complete mockery of Mowbray's journey talk, as after 3 years at this level we are behind clubs in their first season, but also because he was the one who set Coventry on their way to League Two before getting the job here. Coventry have now come full circle under his successor and have overtaken us. Bravo Mowbray.

Take your pick but the above 3 stats are inexcusable and should be put to the manager immediately, along with his p45.

 

[Stuart]

27 minutes ago, JHRover said:

This season has been littered with bad stats but I think there are a few honours still up for grabs yet.

We need a minimum of 2 points from our remaining 3 games to surpass the 51 points we went down with in 2017. A failure to surpass that figure will take some explaining from the pilot of our journey.

We have now lost the same number of games, 19, as during our entire relegation season, so a defeat in any of our remaining fixtures will mean we have lost more than that Coyle coached relegation side - abysmal.

We are just about to be overtaken by Coventry, fresh out of League One and skint. This is particularly relevant not just because it makes a complete mockery of Mowbray's journey talk, as after 3 years at this level we are behind clubs in their first season, but also because he was the one who set Coventry on their way to League Two before getting the job here. Coventry have now come full circle under his successor and have overtaken us. Bravo Mowbray.

Take your pick but the above 3 stats are inexcusable and should be put to the manager immediately, along with his p45.

 

Interesting isn’t it.

If we stay up with 50 points Mowbray will even be able to spin relegation with 51 points as sheer bad luck, further elevating his legendary status.

“Best manager since Dalglish”. Even Kenny didn’t have his own flag. Heck, neither did Kean!

[Exiled in Toronto]

Wycombe not down yet...

[LDRover]

20th position looking plausible by Saturday evening. Assuming the Birmingham result stays the same it would just take Huddersfield to beat us and Forest to at least draw with Stoke. 

[davulsukur]

Birmingham now above us.

Someone show this useless b*****d the league table.

[rigger]

2 minutes ago, davulsukur said:

Birmingham now above us.

Someone show this useless b*****d the league table.

What we need is someone with enough clout to show him the door.

[roverandout]

35 minutes ago, LDRover said:

20th position looking plausible by Saturday evening. Assuming the Birmingham result stays the same it would just take Huddersfield to beat us and Forest to at least draw with Stoke. 

Huddersfield could only draw level. Their goal difference in inferior unless its head to head