[Archived] Gary Bowyer

[Exiled in Toronto]

Stop being lazy then, correct me - what is a representative sample range for 12,000 Rovers fans, with your accuracy rating.

Wrong question. The key is in the representative bit rather than the size.

This survey is self-selecting so, by definition, can't be representative of the total messageboard, let alone the entire fanbase. The key to accurate research is ensuring that the people sampled for their opinions match the broader population on all the relevant dimensions and that the options presented to them to select from represent the widest range of opinions held by fans. The 'poll' on here has neither.

The latter bit you do first through qualitative research (small, wide-ranging sample, in depth) which will bring into play new possible opinions held by, for example, Birdy and my 87-year-old dad. Then the former bit you do what is called quantatative research where you firstly ascertain the make-up of the entire messageboard in terms of age, sex, frequency of reading, frequency of contribution etc. then you approach members for opinions so that the weighting of your sample matches the make-up of the entire membership. Only once you have done that then there is a correlation between sample size and accuracy - the bigger the sample, the more accurate the results.

Then you would have the problem of transposing the results onto the entire fanbase, which will most certainly be significantly different to the messageboard on a whole different set of criteria such as longevity of support, number of games attended (home and away), age depth of emotional involvement and so on. Unfortunately, this would most likely uprate the input from the "superfans" you love to deride and downrate those of non-attendees in Hampshire. Unless you go with one man one vote, which raises a whole other set of issues.

[yoda]

Wrong question. The key is in the representative bit rather than the size.

This survey is self-selecting so, by definition, can't be representative of the total messageboard, let alone the entire fanbase. The key to accurate research is ensuring that the people sampled for their opinions match the broader population on all the relevant dimensions and that the options presented to them to select from represent the widest range of opinions held by fans. The 'poll' on here has neither.

The latter bit you do first through qualitative research (small, wide-ranging sample, in depth) which will bring into play new possible opinions held by, for example, Birdy and my 87-year-old dad. Then the former bit you do what is called quantatative research where you firstly ascertain the make-up of the entire messageboard in terms of age, sex, frequency of reading, frequency of contribution etc. then you approach members for opinions so that the weighting of your sample matches the make-up of the entire membership. Only once you have done that then there is a correlation between sample size and accuracy - the bigger the sample, the more accurate the results.

Then you would have the problem of transposing the results onto the entire fanbase, which will most certainly be significantly different to the messageboard on a whole different set of criteria such as longevity of support, number of games attended (home and away), age depth of emotional involvement and so on. Unfortunately, this would most likely uprate the input from the "superfans" you love to deride and downrate those of non-attendees in Hampshire. Unless you go with one man one vote, which raises a whole other set of issues.

Off you go then, ask Ste B for contact details of all 3000 plus members

[Neil Weaver]

(Wasn't me).

We have a decent cross-section of fans on here, and not just the 20 or 30 who post regularly (and incidentally get slagged off for providing the material for people to read). I do believe that close to 300 Rovers fans is a reasonable yardstick to use across the fanbase. Certainly more so that an LT one which has rival fans included.

Who do you think is not represented in this poll? How is exit poll profiling any more certain? It's by no means an exact science, for obvious reasons but it's certainly not right to dismiss the view of 300 fans. (That's quite a large number by the way - possibly the largest unofficial group).

Have a read at this (will only take a couple of minutes) - http://www.ehow.com/how_6801699_choose-representative-sample.html

There's a link to another article on choosing the size of a sample - http://www.ehow.com/how_7624940_determine-minimum-sample-size.html . My excuse is it's been quite a few years since I did academic study on samples and polls.

If you're going to claim any poll represents results from the wider population though, your sample has to represent that whole population though. Who doesn't this poll represent? How about the sections of society that don't go on fan websites, aren't as keen (I was careful with the spelling there) as us who'll spend an hour/few hours each day following events at the club? My earlier post explained why exit polling is more accurate - great care will be taken to make sure the sample is representative of the whole voting population. The poll here is representative of Rovers fans who follow this website. I've seen comments on this board how Rovers fans on Facebook have a very different view (a lot of them), so this poll doesn't even represent Rovers fans across the web.

Edit - apols for the duplication, the learned EiT got there first, I was digging around for the links.

[mustard]

I'm not suprised that you would take a sarcastic remark (see the smiley?) and apply it to the whole situation as if I'm referring to people who physically couldn't attend.

You also know that I'm referring to those fans who will have forgot this comment should we draw a big team in the third round of the cup in 3 months.

There are an awful lot of people who's situation has changed due to the financial climate - I'm perfectly aware of that. Do you think I am genuinely, or GB for that matter is targeting a comment as such at those people? It suits the low opinion many have of GB to bring it up as such.

The "theory" I have - in relation to Reidys post, it's not about people who are forced not to attend for personal reasons.

There is a difference between him, and say your brother - than the others who've chosen to select "big" games because they can no longer "be assed" because we aren't playing Chelsea, Arsenal etc. As someone pointed out, it's always been that way and I'll always be critical of that mentality. Just like I'm sick and tired of seeing young Ewood attendees refer to themselves as "city" fans.

Forgive me if it was meant tongue in cheek (hard to distinguish on here) but you have defended Bowyer on this matter.

Football fans are notoriously fickle. It's the way it is and it's the way of all fans up and down the country. Not just us. People are more willing to spend their money if the product is better quality. If it was as cut and dry as him singling out those who'd walked away due to a lack of Prem football specifically, a lot might agree, but Bowyer didn't. It makes no difference who he intended to target, facts are his comments were critical of ALL of those who turned up for the Dingle game and not other fixtures, with disregard for circumstance. It's easy to cherry-pick the context of his comments but when you read them in black and white (or listen to them), he doesn't discern between the niches within this group, but simply tars them all with the same brush.

It's naive of him to think the Burnley game wouldn't have attracted a larger attendance and it's baffling for him to then insult the fans that he should be trying to win over for more games. It pains me seeing an emptier Ewood but there is very good reason for that and I don't believe it's simply down to a lack of Prem football. A lot of fans left due to Kean and Venky's and a number have left under Bowyer's stewardship, I imagine because they remain disgruntled with Venky reign, put off by poor football/tactics and now see Bowyer as part of the problem and not the solution. If people are unhappy with the direction the club is heading they will vote with their feet unfortunately.

[Doug]

CapnHanley potted!!

Has 'Jason' off the Halloween films become a mod?

[JHRover]

If Venkys were pinning their hopes on promotion this season then they wouldn't have sold Gestede and Cairney, or would at least have ensured that having sold them that we would be free from the embargo so as to be able to replace them.

The fact they were sold for £10 million and that still wasn't sufficient to lift the embargo and that they have failed to challenge the embargo or lift income from clever sponsorship (Sheffield Wed are sponsored by their owner) suggests they either aren't that bothered about promotion this season, or think it can be done on a negative budget. Won't happen I'm afraid.

If they seriously thought we could sell Gestede/Cairney, deal with an embargo and compete for promotion from this league purely by keeping hold of Rhodes they clearly still don't understand what we are up against in this division, although there is evidence in the forms of Brighton, Reading and Birmingham of teams with far less financial resources than ourselves that these things can be done with astute management.

If they aren't happy being mid-table or bottom half then they should have changed things last summer and given a new manager a proper crack at it this season.

All this talk about giving it until the end of November or a few more games is nonsense. Whatever minute hopes we have of the top 6 will be gone by December at this rate. If they really want promotion this season, then only an immediate change and unbelievable turn around in results will deliver that.

I think it is once again the old situation, where there are one or two people within the Venky setup that realise the situation and want a change soon, yet the only one that counts is Desai, and if she doesn't want to let Bowyer go then it won't be happening.

[Stuart]

Wrong question. The key is in the representative bit rather than the size.

This survey is self-selecting so, by definition, can't be representative of the total messageboard, let alone the entire fanbase. The key to accurate research is ensuring that the people sampled for their opinions match the broader population on all the relevant dimensions and that the options presented to them to select from represent the widest range of opinions held by fans. The 'poll' on here has neither.

The latter bit you do first through qualitative research (small, wide-ranging sample, in depth) which will bring into play new possible opinions held by, for example, Birdy and my 87-year-old dad. Then the former bit you do what is called quantatative research where you firstly ascertain the make-up of the entire messageboard in terms of age, sex, frequency of reading, frequency of contribution etc. then you approach members for opinions so that the weighting of your sample matches the make-up of the entire membership. Only once you have done that then there is a correlation between sample size and accuracy - the bigger the sample, the more accurate the results.

Then you would have the problem of transposing the results onto the entire fanbase, which will most certainly be significantly different to the messageboard on a whole different set of criteria such as longevity of support, number of games attended (home and away), age depth of emotional involvement and so on. Unfortunately, this would most likely uprate the input from the "superfans" you love to deride and downrate those of non-attendees in Hampshire. Unless you go with one man one vote, which raises a whole other set of issues.

I actually think that the range of fan types represented on here would surprise you. But even so, I'd say that the vast majority of Rovers, nay football m, fans are of a narrow demographic. Therefore if 80% of the fanbase are of the same demographic as the majority of the pollsters I don't think there would be an issue.

Also you say self-selecting. Presumably you mean voluntary rather than conscripted. Doesn't that also make the answer likely to be more honest?

I still maintain that a poll on returning 90% in a digital question would be a decent yardstick - even with a margin for error.

Have a read at this (will only take a couple of minutes) - http://www.ehow.com/how_6801699_choose-representative-sample.html

There's a link to another article on choosing the size of a sample - http://www.ehow.com/how_7624940_determine-minimum-sample-size.html . My excuse is it's been quite a few years since I did academic study on samples and polls.

If you're going to claim any poll represents results from the wider population though, your sample has to represent that whole population though. Who doesn't this poll represent? How about the sections of society that don't go on fan websites, aren't as keen (I was careful with the spelling there) as us who'll spend an hour/few hours each day following events at the club? My earlier post explained why exit polling is more accurate - great care will be taken to make sure the sample is representative of the whole voting population. The poll here is representative of Rovers fans who follow this website. I've seen comments on this board how Rovers fans on Facebook have a very different view (a lot of them), so this poll doesn't even represent Rovers fans across the web.

Edit - apols for the duplication, the learned EiT got there first, I was digging around for the links.

Cheers for the follow up.

Likewise I've pre-responded. I think there is a demographic overlay that makes it a very decent representation.

[yoda]

Just because it has not been proven that it is not representative, does not mean it is not, just needs someone to do the leg work and hey presto it might just be.

I think there is broad collection of MB members from all walks of life.

( agree with Stuart above)

[47er]

Forgive me if it was meant tongue in cheek (hard to distinguish on here) but you have defended Bowyer on this matter.

Football fans are notoriously fickle. It's the way it is and it's the way of all fans up and down the country. Not just us. People are more willing to spend their money if the product is better quality. If it was as cut and dry as him singling out those who'd walked away due to a lack of Prem football specifically, a lot might agree, but Bowyer didn't. It makes no difference who he intended to target, facts are his comments were critical of ALL of those who turned up for the Dingle game and not other fixtures, with disregard for circumstance. It's easy to cherry-pick the context of his comments but when you read them in black and white (or listen to them), he doesn't discern between the niches within this group, but simply tars them all with the same brush.

It's naive of him to think the Burnley game wouldn't have attracted a larger attendance and it's baffling for him to then insult the fans that he should be trying to win over for more games. It pains me seeing an emptier Ewood but there is very good reason for that and I don't believe it's simply down to a lack of Prem football. A lot of fans left due to Kean and Venky's and a number have left under Bowyer's stewardship, I imagine because they remain disgruntled with Venky reign, put off by poor football/tactics and now see Bowyer as part of the problem and not the solution. If people are unhappy with the direction the club is heading they will vote with their feet unfortunately.

At its simplest, the challenge for every football club (except those who sell out every game maybe) is to CONVERT casual walk-ons into

permanent fans.

I don't understand why GB doesn't see that.

How do you do that? By offering them an experience they want to repeat. Not by insulting them! Ludicrous.

[Reedy You're A Star]

See Gumboots... I don't know her personally, but from the recent posts, she seems the perfect example of what you're talking about. We Rovers fans need to believe in something again. Our club has had its soul ripped out since Sam was sacked and John Williams et al were shunted out. The only man I've, personally, had any belief in the last 5 years was Berg and he was victim of the infighting that was going on behind the scenes, which ultimately cost us a couple of million because the MD doesn't want to read contracts properly. I will be forever grateful for GB for helping save us from relegation to league 1, but he should've taken a leaf out of Parkes' book and stayed away from the big job full time. We had the likes of Holloway and Sherwood interested at the time and could probably appointed better than an inexperienced youth coach, which with a 20 goal striker with the likes of Cairney, Conway and Marshall backing them up, may well have at least had a good shot at the playoffs. Whereas now, we are supposed to be thankful we are not in the relegation places because we have been in a worse position some 25 years ago and are back at our natural level. Jack Walker would be having kittens at the think small attitude running amok throughout the club at the minute. And anyone who is settling for it and not aspiring for better shames everything the great man lived for and died believing for HIS club. And I don't give 2 @#/? how many season tickets You have or how many youth games you've been too, if you settle for mediocrity for the mighty Rovers, then Jack would be ashamed of you!

[den]

Off you go then, ask Ste B for contact details of all 3000 plus members

I've yet to see any evidence that the results on here are way out. Where is it? There is none. They might not be 100% representative, but it would take a huge swing in opinion from any under represented group to make a real difference to a poll result on this particular one. For instance let's say the over 70's aren't represented fully. Well they are only a small percentage anyway and what evidence is there that they think any differently to the rest of the fan base?

[chaddyrovers]

Is Kamy around?! Any substance in this Nixon story?!

From Kamy on twitter:-

Others managers may have been sounded out BUT Mrs D still supports GB, while he has her support then no chance of him being sacked

Reason why she supports him is down to a model of making profit on players bought to finance club. GB delivering that for her

Joker novice? Don't we already have one?

Sounds like another Runyer Bolaksov!

Slavisa Jokanovic was the Watford manager who guided them to Promotion last season

He has led Maccabi Tel Aviv to the group stages of the Champions league.

Tomorrow's fish n' chip paper.

Nixon no longer has an inside track at the club, and besides, the decision-makers are 4,000 miles away and won't have a clue who any of these people are.

So, who exactly is headhunting these managers? Shaw? Do me a favour.

Nixon has said on twitter that contact was made between a person in the Venky's camp and Jokanovic last week after the Burnley game. He has said that Their top advisor was over recently.

and Nixon also said that Interesting part for me is that Venkys still think can go up. If Jokanovic really fancied it he would have been here last week... Not sure how it plays out after Leeds win now.

Plus he has also said that He think there was a call at a minor level to Pearson a few weeks back.

Nixon has said that

The Nixon story is no surprise.

I think Shaw was looking at replacements for Bowyer as soon as last season ended (with Warburton a rumoured target), however, the Raos' apparent indifference to all things Rovers over previous months would have left that one on the starting grid.

As disorganised as the Raos seemingly are, at least where football matters are concerned, I would be amazed if they have not evaluated the options for exiting. If they didn't already know, they most likely realise now that promotion is the only way that they will have any chance of recouping a decent slug of the £130m+ that so far has gone into Rovers. Our very poor start to the season has probably dented their confidence in Bowyer to deliver following his statement following the last match of the season - words to the effect 'top six is the minimum objective'. Perhaps they are at last beginning to see through, IMV, Bowyer's constant bull s h I t and hence a potential last throw of the dice.

IMV, there is a quiet noise to suggest that something may be happening behind the scenes and the manager's position is just one part of those deliberations. I think things will become clearer before the year is out.

I really wouldn't be surprised if the owners are split on the future of Bowyer with Mrs D(and her husband) backing Bowyer and the Rao's brothers wanting a new manager in.

But at the end of the day, Mrs D makes the final decisions.

On Shaw, he will do as he is told by Mrs D/Owners and nothing else

I guess they will make a decision on Bowyer's future during the international break.

But Alan Nixon is suggesting that Some of the camp are more active than others. I said that"all depends on what Mrs D thinks. she the boss" and Alan respond with this "I wouldn't count on that."

[DE.]

CapnHanley potted!!

Has 'Jason' off the Halloween films become a mod?

Duplicate accounts aren't allowed. Seems obvious CapnHanley was TeamGB-11, who will probably be back with another account shortly.

[Reedy You're A Star]

Well Mrs D has been proved to be a dumbass before now and the lesser of 4 evils has proved to be Barry Venky. Whilst he's also a dumbass, he at least seems to have a small grasp on what needs to be done. Give him control and let's see what happens. This decision by committee rubbish is killing us. At least Barry Venky doesn't seem to give a @#/? about if you've got a nice wife or if you've brought in a few quid while the rest of the business loses a few million more.

[yoda]

From Kamy on twitter:-

Others managers may have been sounded out BUT Mrs D still supports GB, while he has her support then no chance of him being sacked

Reason why she supports him is down to a model of making profit on players bought to finance club. GB delivering that for her

Slavisa Jokanovic was the Watford manager who guided them to Promotion last season

He has led Maccabi Tel Aviv to the group stages of the Champions league.

Nixon has said on twitter that contact was made between a person in the Venky's camp and Jokanovic last week after the Burnley game. He has said that Their top advisor was over recently.

and Nixon also said that Interesting part for me is that Venkys still think can go up. If Jokanovic really fancied it he would have been here last week... Not sure how it plays out after Leeds win now.

Plus he has also said that He think there was a call at a minor level to Pearson a few weeks back.

Nixon has said that

I really wouldn't be surprised if the owners are split on the future of Bowyer with Mrs D(and her husband) backing Bowyer and the Rao's brothers wanting a new manager in.

But at the end of the day, Mrs D makes the final decisions.

On Shaw, he will do as he is told by Mrs D/Owners and nothing else

I guess they will make a decision on Bowyer's future during the international break.

But Alan Nixon is suggesting that Some of the camp are more active than others. I said that"all depends on what Mrs D thinks. she the boss" and Alan respond with this "I wouldn't count on that."

I don't understand Chaddy, if he has the support of Madam why are we sounding out managers and who is doing the sounding out ?

[jw_]

I've yet to see any evidence that the results on here are way out. Where is it? There is none. They might not be 100% representative, but it would take a huge swing in opinion from any under represented group to make a real difference to a poll result on this particular one. For instance let's say the over 70's aren't represented fully. Well they are only a small percentage anyway and what evidence is there that they think any differently to the rest of the fan base?

Correct, I'm well over 70 and I and I don't think any differently to the majority (in the poll) simply because its nothing to do with age, just common sense.

[patrickvalery]

Not sure I agree with that reidy. It's only my gut instinct and I know you shouldn't judge a book by its coverand all that. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that Barry and the runt of the litter (the little one who looks like Barry's ventriloquist dummy) were calling the shots during the berg, Appleton saga. Barry strikes me as a man who has very little grasp on reality and would buckle at the whim of fans opinion.

I'm no fan of (what was it Abbey called her?) the owd hag. But I think I'm more comfortable with someone who takes a more considered approach.

The trouble is it seems there's two extremes. Knee jerk or ponderous ditherer. Neither are much use I'll grant you. If only we had a chief exec who was competent and trusted to run things. Im blue sky thinking here. But maybe someone like John Williams.

[DE.]

Not sure I agree with that reidy. It's only my gut instinct and I know you shouldn't judge a book by its coverand all that. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that Barry and the runt of the litter (the little one who looks like Barry's ventriloquist dummy) were calling the shots during the berg, Appleton saga. Barry strikes me as a man who has very little grasp on reality and would buckle at the whim of fans opinion.

I'm no fan of (what was it Abbey called her?) the owd hag. But I think I'm more comfortable with someone who takes a more considered approach.

The trouble is it seems there's two extremes. Knee jerk or ponderous ditherer. Neither are much use I'll grant you. If only we had a chief exec who was competent and trusted to run things. Im blue sky thinking here. But maybe someone like John Williams.

Neither mean a damn thing when at both ends of the scale they know the square root of f all about our club or football in general.

As Gav had said countless times, the only real way out of this mess is to somehow remove Venky's. We may strike lucky in the manager department, but their methods are always going to hold us back. It's been over 4 years since we had a competent board structure in place, let alone a manager capable of delivering the supposed aim of promotion.

[Exiled in Toronto]

Off you go then, ask Ste B for contact details of all 3000 plus members

I fall into the 90% of fans on this MB who couldn't even be bothered to vote

[OJRovers]

The owners still being advised by Kentaro?

(Nicko on Twitter)

Thought we were past all that!

[Exiled in Toronto]

I actually think that the range of fan types represented on here would surprise you. But even so, I'd say that the vast majority of Rovers, nay football m, fans are of a narrow demographic. Therefore if 80% of the fanbase are of the same demographic as the majority of the pollsters I don't think there would be an issue.

Also you say self-selecting. Presumably you mean voluntary rather than conscripted. Doesn't that also make the answer likely to be more honest?

I still maintain that a poll on returning 90% in a digital question would be a decent yardstick - even with a margin for error.

Cheers for the follow up.

Likewise I've pre-responded. I think there is a demographic overlay that makes it a very decent representation.

Thinking and knowing are two different things in research.

[yoda]

I fall into the 90% of fans on this MB who couldn't even be bothered to vote

You will have to qualify that statement or it is invalid

Anyway the 90 % may well vote the same way as the 10 % QED

[davulsukur]

The owners still being advised by Kentaro?

(Nicko on Twitter)

Thought we were past all that!

Didn't Shaw say at the q&a, that Anderson was not involved with the club anymore?

Not that you can trust either Nixon or Shaw as far you could throw them but still that's quite a whopper for Shaw to lie about.

[OJRovers]

Didn't Shaw say at the q&a, that Anderson was not involved with the club anymore?

Not that you can trust either Nixon or Shaw as far you could throw them but still that's quite a whopper for Shaw to lie about.

Not Anderson but another advisor, that's if I am understanding it properly

[chaddyrovers]

I don't understand Chaddy, if he has the support of Madam why are we sounding out managers and who is doing the sounding out ?

Thats a question you need to ask Kamy or Alan Nixon.

I think we have split with the owners regarding the future of the Bowyer. Like I said before.

Alan Nixon has reporting/said that someone from the Venky's camp made contact with Jokanovic last week after the Birnley loss.

I will say that the 4 man shortlist that has been reported by Alan Nixon is impressive. Not a fan of Holloway btw.