[Archived] Eu Referendum, In Or Out - Looks Like Blackburn Wants Out !

[JAL]

Cameron had nowt to do with it, it is German protesters that brought it into the public gaze, it is still in the EU/USA pipeline though so it's not dead and buried, even though it should be. It is a Bilderberg/Corporate America trade deal which will be detrimental to you and I

Your wrong yoda .......Cameron did the dirty deed on behalf of Europe for the TTIP deal and the French and the Germans rightly @#/? him off !

[jim mk2]

John Major must be the poorest PM in my lifetime but he was right yesterday in lambasting the "squalid" Leave campaign and describing Boris Johnson as a "court jester".

“Michael Gove wanted to privatise it [the NHS], Boris Johnson wanted to charge people for using it, and Iain Duncan Smith wanted a social insurance system,” he said. “So the NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python.”

Major attacked Duncan Smith who, he said, had repeatedly rebelled when Sir John led the Tories in the 1990s “and then was surprised nobody was loyal to him” when he led the party a decade later.

“Boris should learn from that,” Major said, calling Johnson “a very engaging and charming court jester”.

[oldjamfan1]

John Major must be the poorest PM in my lifetime but he was right yesterday in lambasting the "squalid" Leave campaign and describing Boris Johnson as a "court jester".

“Michael Gove wanted to privatise it [the NHS], Boris Johnson wanted to charge people for using it, and Iain Duncan Smith wanted a social insurance system,” he said. “So the NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python.”

Major attacked Duncan Smith who, he said, had repeatedly rebelled when Sir John led the Tories in the 1990s “and then was surprised nobody was loyal to him” when he led the party a decade later.

“Boris should learn from that,” Major said, calling Johnson “a very engaging and charming court jester”.

I must admit I saw Major in a different, better, light after listening to him on the Marr show yesterday.

But answering questions on 'in' or 'out' must have brought back memories of Edwina Currie for the poor fella.

[philipl]

I must admit I saw Major in a different, better, light after listening to him on the Marr show yesterday.

But answering questions on 'in' or 'out' must have brought back memories of Edwina Currie for the poor fella.

Currie has not aged at all well but when I first met her through her first husband, she was extremely attractive if you didn't listen to her Thatcherite views.

And yes the hamster and the hungry python is the only memorable phrase to have come out of this wretched campaign so far...

[RibbleValleyRover]

Even leave admit there will be job losses as a consequence of leaving the EU. Perhaps they just think it will be those evil bankers that lose their jobs when the reality is that all across the economy jobs will go.

They seem to be advocating that job losses and the economic impact of a leave vote is worth it in to get some sovereignty back and control over our borders. They also seem to be using the Syrian refuge crisis and the turmoil in the middle east as an argument against the freedom of movement within the EU when they are completely different things entirely.

And yet all the polls are trending towards Leave, remarkable.

[yoda]

Your wrong yoda .......Cameron did the dirty deed on behalf of Europe for the TTIP deal and the French and the Germans rightly @#/? him off !

You are going to have to find some evidence for that JAL. As far as I can see Cameron supports TTIP

[yoda]

I see Cameron has started the threat phase of the campaign, I'm going to go make Boris pay, warns Cameron,

Yes Dave, who called the referendum again ?

[RibbleValleyRover]

"Cash is leaving the country at the fastest rate since the financial crisis in 2009 with £77bn flowing out of the UK in six months".

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/billions-of-pounds-leave-uk-ahead-of-eu-vote

Sky News has uncovered the first statistical evidence that investors are shifting billions of pounds out of British assets in light of the EU referendum.

Some £65bn either left the UK or was converted into other currencies in March and April - the fastest rate since the financial crisis in early 2009.

The figures, published by the Bank of England in its monthly register of banking statistics, represent the first evidence of capital flight from the UK - where money rapidly flows out of a country in response to concerns over economic instability.

[Stuart]

Listening to the scaremongering rhetoric on both sides it's like trying to decide if you'd rather die by drowning or being burned alive.

Is there anywhere with a list of objective pros and cons?

Reading some of the stuff out there it reads as though leaving will save the government billions and cost businesses billions. Why wouldn't the government subsidise businesses to maintain the current costbase but enable Britain to take control back from the EU bureaucrats?

[Paul]

Probably because government subsidies to business would not be popular with the EU if it came to, the unlikely, negotiating of a new trade agreement.

Subsidised business is rarely profitable business.

The way I view the campaigns is this. I believe in and am a strong supporter of Europe and the EU. I don't need convincing to vote remain but do need convincing to change my opinion. Something the leave campaign and its leaders who hold no political power or authority have so far failed to do.

[Stuart]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JFt-pRIvL9E

https://www.brexitthemovie.com/

[jim mk2]

There are huge political risks with a Brexit vote.

1. Scotland wants to remain part of the EU and a UK vote to leave would almost certainly lead to a second independence vote which this time would likely see the Yes campaign win by a significant margin.

2. Cameron would have to resign as PM (he wouldn't last 30 seconds after a Brexit according to Ken Clarke) leading to a Tory leadership battle and the likelihood that leading Brexiteers such as Michael Gove or Boris Johnson would be the next prime minister and deputy PM.

3. Within 12 months of a Brexit the 300-year-old United Kingdom would no longer exist and we would be left with a diminished country all on its own and excluded from the the globe's biggest trading bloc .

4. The remaining rump-UK comprising little England and Wales (and N Ireland presumably though N Ireland is also very pro-EU and may seek the powers to exit the UK) would be governed by two extreme right wing ideologists with a toxic neo-liberal agenda that will include further attacks on workers rights, public services and the NHS in particular. Gove has said in the past he wants to privatise the NHS.

If that appeals to you, vote Leave on June 23.

[Stuart]

I think that your point 2 is a calculated gamble by the Tories. Putting Johnson, and particularly the odious, marionette-like, Gove.

Point 3. Why would Scotland (or Wales for that matter) be allowed back in the EU having been part of a leave vote? By that reckoning, England too would also be allowed to re-join, with everyone blaming each other.

There's no real substance to your post though, Jim, just conjecture and scaremongering.

It'd be good to be able to see a chart with:

Scenario A - Leave means X; Remain means Y

All be it, nobody has a crystal ball.

[philipl]

For me the downsides of a Brexit vote are:

- I pay all my taxes in the UK and am a regular UK resident

- all my work is in other countries in the EU for which I qualify as a resident of the EU taking advantage of single European market. So I would become unemployed.

- my expertise and current experience is in transnational investment, tourism and universities. All of these are part of the single European market and so with Britain leaving the EU would make the likelihood of finding new contracts vastly reduced.

- I fly within the EU at least twice a month. As a non-EU citizen I would not be able to have the advantage of either the Schengen zone or EU freedom of movement so I would have to join the non-EU citizens queue on every flight, enormously adding to my travel time were I to be fortunate to have contracts like the ones I have at the moment.

- I am about to marry a Chinese citizen and we plan to live in Malta. With Brexit being determined by immigration, the likelihood of the peculiar politicians backing Brexit allowing me and my wife to live in the UK or for her ever to get a British passport are close to zero.

Fortunately, I had an Irish born grandfather who died 56 years ago so I qualify for Irish citizenship and can retain my EU status that way and overcome the life destroying consequences of the UK opting for Brexit.

Sorry for the airport and ferry queues folks.

[Stuart]

I can well see why it would be a problem for people who earn their living in continental Europe, Philip.

Are non-EU citizens not allowed to work in Europe with the skills you have? Would you be replaced the day after Brexit took effect? (Which presumably would be a few years after such a vote).

[jim mk2]

I think that your point 2 is a calculated gamble by the Tories. Putting Johnson, and particularly the odious, marionette-like, Gove.

Point 3. Why would Scotland (or Wales for that matter) be allowed back in the EU having been part of a leave vote? By that reckoning, England too would also be allowed to re-join, with everyone blaming each other.

There's no real substance to your post though, Jim, just conjecture and scaremongering.

It'd be good to be able to see a chart with:

Scenario A - Leave means X; Remain means Y

All be it, nobody has a crystal ball.

Scotland would be an independent country when it applies to rejoin the EU. My post is conjecture but it's only repeating what's been said many times by leading commentators as a likely scenario in the event of a Brexit. If you think that's "lacking substance" you obviously haven't put any thought into the matter.

The answer to your query can be easily found on the internet.

[philipl]

I can well see why it would be a problem for people who earn their living in continental Europe, Philip.

Are non-EU citizens not allowed to work in Europe with the skills you have? Would you be replaced the day after Brexit took effect? (Which presumably would be a few years after such a vote).

Ask any person of non-EU, non-EEA nationality how easy it is to work in the UK.

The answer is very difficult, costly and with lots of form filling and queueing.

The problem for me is that I would have to do this in EACH EU country I work in- all seven of them!

So to all extents and purposes I would not be able to do what I do as a citizen of a non-EU nation.

Scotland would be an independent country when it applies to rejoin the EU. My post is conjecture but it's only repeating what's been said many times by leading commentators as a likely scenario in the event of a Brexit. If you think that's "lacking substance" you obviously haven't put any thought into the matter.

The answer to your query can be easily found on the internet.

Scotland as an independent country in the EU with England in the EU doesn't make much sense economically.

However, Scotland in the EU with England outside the EU completely turns the tables and Scotland would be viable as an independent nation.

The SNP will inevitably be looking for a formula with Brussels which would mitigate the impact of Brexit on Scotland pending the second independence referendum.

[Paul]

Watching Farage on ITV. I thought this was meant to be a debate?

[jim mk2]

Ask any person of non-EU, non-EEA nationality how easy it is to work in the UK.

The answer is very difficult, costly and with lots of form filling and queueing.

The problem for me is that I would have to do this in EACH EU country I work in- all seven of them!

So to all extents and purposes I would not be able to do what I do as a citizen of a non-EU nation.

Scotland as an independent country in the EU with England in the EU doesn't make much sense economically.

However, Scotland in the EU with England outside the EU completely turns the tables and Scotland would be viable as an independent nation.

The SNP will inevitably be looking for a formula with Brussels which would mitigate the impact of Brexit on Scotland pending the second independence referendum.

The SDP is looking for an excuse to call a second referendum - a Brexit will provide it.

[Steve Kean's Hypnotoad]

The trouble the Brexit campaign leaders have is they're not allowed to call a spade a spade. The extreme left in this country has bullied and fascistly banned straight forward discussion of large-scale immigration and its short and long-term consequences. Specifically large-scale Muslim immigration.

The latest country currently clamouring for EU membership is Turkey. A country where the Islamists have all but seized total control, where the religious nutjob of a President has forced out the moderate Prime Minister and set about making extremely dangerous statements like Turkish women using contraception amounts to treason, and they shouldn't do it so "we can increase our descendants". This is a country which has been modernised and consider a, if not the, shining example of moderate Islam working in a secular nation state for decades. Its had huge funding in international aid, has benefitted immensely from being a close ally of America and Nato, and its ​still goin​g down the barbaric route of hardline religious doctrine. Pursuing a fanatical war against the Kurds, shooting a Russia plane down with mere seconds of warning, and as I said marginalising or excluding moderate voices from government.

At some point you have to ask whether this is simply the inevitable outcome, sooner or later, for all countries with a Muslim majority population. Tunisia and Morocco are going the same way as Turkey, Saudi Arabia has enough wealth to create a paradise and yet suffers from widescale child abuse, human trafficking, inbreeding, poverty and zero rights for women, not to mention also pursuing its own hyper-aggressive war on the Houthis in Yemen and its extremely suspect links to IS. Egypt barely, by the absolute skin of its teeth, repelled a democratic takeover by the monstrous Muslim Brotherhood, whose supporters managed to kill hundreds of Coptic Christians nonetheless. Even the small population economic powerhouses like where Kean resides are extremely intolerant of other religions.

I say all this because the population trends point to a majority Muslim Europe sooner or later, its absolutely inevitable. Anyone who claims it isn't either has their head wedged 3 feet into sand or doesn't understand how maths works. And if people expect the societal freedoms and tolerance they currently enjoy then it will be a first for a majority Islamic country in world history. I honestly hope that's what happens when the time comes. But the only way it possibly will happen is by the demographic change being a slow one. By new immigrants from third world, highly authoritarian Islamic countries, having time to integrate here rather than simply contributing to the swift change of our own country. And that means controlled immigration. Controlled immigration is impossible whilst remaining in the EU. That Cameron can even hint otherwise is one of the biggest lies in the history of politics given the Conservatives repeated target of under 100,000 net per year, and the reality: 2012 - 185,000, 2013 - 205,000, 2014 - 320,000, 2015 - 330,000

[philipl]

Sorry but every point in the post above is factually incorrect.

It also has nothing to do with the referendum question.

[tomphil]

Really don't know which way to go on this, admittedly I'm not that politically savvy as it winds me up. If it was simply a matter of immigration I'd be on the OUT straight off because it needs sorting and quickly. A firm but fair policy along the lines of Australia for me as when you see these young guys at the French ports diving on trucks most of them are well dressed, designer trainers, watches etc. Hard to believe they are desperate people and not benefit seekers and along with the vermin which is pitching up on our streets on a daily basis it has to stop, end of.

On all the rest of it I just don't know it does make me extremely concerned what will happen if we leave. Anyway it doesn't matter to half the nation it seems as big effin brother was on the other side.

I despair I really do.

[Paul]

Before joining the EU Turkey must satisfy negotiations on 35 EU chapters. To date 13 chapters have been opened and one closed, completed.

Negotiations began in 2005 and are expected to last another 15 years after which member states decide if Turkey joins or not.

If we leave the EU we have no influence on the decision of admitting Turkey or not.

[Steve Kean's Hypnotoad]

Before joining the EU Turkey must satisfy negotiations on 35 EU chapters. To date 13 chapters have been opened and one closed, completed.

Negotiations began in 2005 and are expected to last another 15 years after which member states decide if Turkey joins or not.

If we leave the EU we have no influence on the decision of admitting Turkey or not.

Except Turkey charged a very high monetary and political price for exerting some semblance of control over the migration flow across its borders. The political part of which was a fast-tracked and favourable approach to their membership of the EU. If Europe goes back to stalling it then migration into the EU through Turkey turns back into a tsunami, if Europe doesn't stall it then welcome aboard Mr. Erdogan, a man whose views disgust and horrify me the more I read about him.

[Paul]

Quite agree with your points regarding the financial and political price Turkey charged and the likely "cost" if the EU reneged on the deal in some way.

Surely though the answer to controlling migration is not as simple as getting Turkey to close the border. I think you have posted something on similar lines to the following. I see ahead of us, I'm unlikely to be around but my kids will be, a world in which tens of millions look at the developed world and see our riches while they face increasingly poor living standards brought on through war, terrorism, drought, health and food shortages. The constant population growth in many poorer countries fuels these huge issues. As a consequence millions will continue to look towards the West and attempt to migrate here. There will be so many the result will be overwhelming both physically and financially.

We cannot build walls of any type be it quite literally a physical wall or one which is made of political border control. The numbers fleeing poverty and war will simply overwhelm any sort of defence. If we want to avoid this the West, all of us, has to have the will to give these migrants hope in their own countries. If we don't the long term future is frightening.

I don't though see this as anything to do with culture, religion or belief. Simply people have always fled war and famine, have always migrated towards a better life. Leaving the EU is not going to change or prevent this.

I've no problem with migration of any sort and agree it must be controlled in the long term but this is a global issue not just a Britsh one. Out of Europe our influence will be reduced on this and many other issues.

If we want to control both EU and non EU migration to the UK, either economic or refugee, the conditions which create the desire to migrate have to be tackled.

An example. 25-30 years ago the predominant sources of seasonal migrant labour in Horticulture were Portugal and to a lesser extent Spain. Following those countries accession to the EU the numbers coming for seasonal work declined quite rapidly as their home economies grew. This labour force was then replaced by Eastern European labour. Creating wealth and opportunity in the home country strongly influences or "controls" migration.

From an economic view I don't believe leaving the EU will have any impact on migration. We need the labour. What I do not understand, and I don't hear leave campaigners tackling it, is the overall problem of migration. Currently Europe protects us, hundreds of thousands are kept away from our door. What are we going to do if our immediate neighbours allow migrants to cross the Channel in the way they currently cross the Mediterranean? Border controls, immigration policy, sovereignty will not stop such a flow.

If we believe in tackling migration we have to look way beyond today and work with our European neighbours. Trying to do this from outside the EU will reduce our influence. Why would the EU care about the UK? Who would the EU put first? Not us.

As an aside watching the ITV "debate" last night should have convinced many to support the remain campaign. Cameron treated the audience and questioners in a serious and respectful manner. Farage simply grinned, nodded and smiled at questioners in an arrogant fashion which implied he knew better than those asking the question. He saw himself as superior - now Cameron might think the same but at least he hid it

Do out voters really want the like of Farage and Johnson in charge? That will be one result of your vote. Governed by our version of Trump? Terrible thought.