[Archived] Eu Referendum, In Or Out - Looks Like Blackburn Wants Out !

[Mike E]

Following on from the possible Ford job losses and Ryanair cancelling British investment plans yesterday, many of the world's leading banks today announced plans to relocate key staff from London to European financial centres. As many as 60,000 jobs could be at risk.

Oh, and before Thursday we had the 5th largest economy in the world. Thanks to the Moody's downgrade and slump in sterling we've now been overtaken by France (a sclerotic failed state according to Leavers).

So to sum up, thanks to Brexit, we now have a political crisis, an impending constituiiional crisis and down the road a likely economic crisis as the country haemorrages jobs and investment.

So according to those brackets, you CAN trust Leave when it suits you, eh jim?

[MCMC1875]

The world will keep spinning. I doubt the average guy on the street will even know the difference.

Personally, I'm excited to see the status quo shook up and the establishment clutching at straws.

People will always find a way to trade.

[ultrablue]

oh yea because our economy has been so great in the past 10 years, and with the disgusting 'austerity' cuts the torys have been making the next ten were not looking to good either(and lets not forget which awful party let the countries finances get in such a mess in the first place )

The electorate just gave the Tories more control over public spending. It's like giving a greedy child more cake, hoping they'll learn to share.

[T J Hooker]

there is that of course

[MCMC1875]

I'm pointing out the consequences of the vote. You'll have to get used to it because the repercussions are going to be nasty and will continue for years.

Pure speculation jim. You didn't win. Move on.

[T J Hooker]

My money would be on things not turning out so black and white by the end of these 2 years, I believe we will end up staying part of the eu in some capacity and most of us will be content with the end outcome.

[philipl]

OK, this is what is going to happen- nothing except a hugely damaging period of uncertainty which will almost certainly swing a big majority behind remaining in the EU.

The one simple reason for the Brexit position disappearing is that the Leave campaign was one huge set of lies which is already 50% unravelled just two days after the winning result was announced.

Those of you who voted Brexit simply are not and cannot get what you thought you were voting for...

Anne McElvoy in the Mail on Sunday says pro-Brexit voters who wanted an end to free movement might not get their wish:

Less than an hour after Cameron announced he would stand down, I interviewed Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary. He knows the realities and constraints of our EU dealings inside out.

The price of free trade access to Europe’s large single market will, he told me, be retaining freedom of movement with only cosmetic tweaks. Without that commitment the EU has no reason to keep trade with Britain free of barriers that will do us severe economic damage. That might not be what the jubilant Brexiteers want to hear this weekend. It is nonetheless true.

So freedom of movement for EU citizens will remain- the cost of leaving the Single European Market is just too high. Boris and Gove are of this opinion- they disgracefully conned leave voters it was possible to cherry pick the single market and it isn't.

Farage has let the Tories off the hook from providing £350m a week extra to the NHS by telling us all that this was always a huge lie.

If you still think the UK is leaving the EU and want the definitive on what happens next- this is the authoritive answer:

http://CBP-7632.pdf

In a nutshell, unless Britain is expelled from the EU by the other members, it is all but impossible to draft the legislation for Westminster to legislate to apply for Section 50 under the Lisbon Treaty.

I hadn't realised this but the Government of Scotland Act in effect gives Scotland a veto over it- Westminster will have to vote to repeal whole sections of Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolution BEFORE it can propose the legislation to leave the EU.

This Conservative Government will fall and quite probably split, a fate facing Labour following the sacking of Benn this morning. However, the fixed term Parliament legislation is as likely to result in a zombie Tory Government until 2020 as an early General Election.

The de facto reality as we all wake up this morning is Nicola Sturgeon is single most powerful politician in the UK. She knows that she has a united country and is very cleverly playing her hand.

Quite probably the second most powerful politician in Britain this morning is Sadiq Khan who is going to see London hammered by the economic consequences of Brexit before any other part of the country suffers. He will be forced to take positions by the reality on the ground in London before the internal turmoil of the Tories and Labour is resolved.

Meantime I advise everybody to find out where exactly their grandparents were born...

[Stuart]

Corbyn sacks Hilary Benn from the shadow cabinet. The only one on either party's cabinet with a shred of integrity.

Labour will never be elected whilst he is in charge, and have never been credible since they elected the wrong Milliband, allowing the Tories to rule unchecked.

[oldjamfan1]

Corbyn sacks Hilary Benn from the shadow cabinet. The only one on either party's cabinet with a shred of integrity.

Labour will never be elected whilst he is in charge, and have never been credible since they elected the wrong Milliband, allowing the Tories to rule unchecked.

What price a return for David Milliband?

[Stuart]

The one thing I can agree with is Cameron caused the mess as he called the referendum for the wrong reason.

The EU is already making clear the UK cannot be a special case. Access to the single market will be under EU rules. Nothing will change in relation to this.

European nations will still want to trade with Britain and sell to its consumers. "Single market" or not.

[Paul]

European nations will still want to trade with Britain and sell to its consumers. "Single market" or not.

Yes I agree completely but there's a problem here. EU member states have to comply with the single market rules which allow for two key points, the EU negotiates trade deals on its members behalf and individual members are not permitted to make other deals. These are two of the arguments against EU membership.

I'm 100% in agreement the EU will wish to trade with us. The issue is the rules. No one country can make a trade deal with the UK without breaking EU rules. The UK has effectively rejected the EU single market rules. We are though in the weaker position meaning if we want trade we will have to accept:

Free movement of labour

Pay in to the EU coffers

Comply with EU legislation

I've yet to see any argument has to how any single EU member will trade with us outside of the single market. I don't think there is one.

[oldjamfan1]

I hadn't realised this but the Government of Scotland Act in effect gives Scotland a veto over it- Westminster will have to vote to repeal whole sections of Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolution BEFORE it can propose the legislation to leave the EU.

Does such an Act even exist Phillip?

And in any case if the legislation you mean is the Scotland Act 1998 was this not significantly amended this year by the Scotland Act 2016?

(I'm not a lawyer but when you posted something the other day about Scotland possibly having obtained 'de facto independence' as a consequence of Brexit I asked a Scottish constitutional lawyer I'm friendly with about this and he didn't think what you had suggested was correct)

[otto man]

Yes I agree completely but there's a problem here. EU member states have to comply with the single market rules which allow for two key points, the EU negotiates trade deals on its members behalf and individual members are not permitted to make other deals. These are two of the arguments against EU membership.

I'm 100% in agreement the EU will wish to trade with us. The issue is the rules. No one country can make a trade deal with the UK without breaking EU rules. The UK has effectively rejected the EU single market rules. We are though in the weaker position meaning if we want trade we will have to accept:

Free movement of labour

Pay in to the EU coffers

Comply with EU legislation

I've yet to see any argument has to how any single EU member will trade with us outside of the single market. I don't think there is one.

So are you telling us that America, China, Australia etc etc do exactly this to trade with the EU? If your assertion were true the whole world would be one common market.

There are 190 plus countries through out the world, most of them ticking along quite nicely without EU membership and whatever you may think Britain can and will prosper outside of that failing club.

[ABBEY]

Funny how the loudest ones are the ones who have abandoned Blighty .

[gumboots]

Corbyn sacks Hilary Benn from the shadow cabinet. The only one on either party's cabinet with a shred of integrity.

Labour will never be elected whilst he is in charge, and have never been credible since they elected the wrong Milliband, allowing the Tories to rule unchecked.

Funnily enough, listening to him on Thursday night, I said to my husband he, along with the Scottish Conservative leader, are the 2 most sensible people on here.. calm rational and speaking clearly

[Stuart]

Funnily enough, listening to him on Thursday night, I said to my husband he, along with the Scottish Conservative leader, are the 2 most sensible people on here.. calm rational and speaking clearly

I expect if there is enough will in the Labour Party, there may well be a new leader soon, or maybe even a splinter Labour Party group.

Corbym, meanwhile, seems the type of character who would just elect a new shadow cabinet and move on.

Party politics as we know it is now being shaken up. If the referendum has done nothing else it has woken Westminster from its slumber, cocooned by its insulated London sleeping bag, to the fact that there is a disillusioned electorate out there.

The campaigns of both parties have exposed the palpable lack of faith in the British political system - but most of all the lack of faith in its so-called leaders.

[chaddyrovers]

Corbyn sacks Hilary Benn from the shadow cabinet. The only one on either party's cabinet with a shred of integrity.

Labour will never be elected whilst he is in charge, and have never been credible since they elected the wrong Milliband, allowing the Tories to rule unchecked.

Stuart great points.

Corbyn is unelectionable as a PM.

Benn should replace Corbyn as Labour leader.

Labour did a huge mistake when they didn't appoint David Milliband.

BBC News are reporting at least half of the Labour shadow cabinet are quitting

[Wing Wizard Windy Miller]

Following on from the possible Ford job losses and Ryanair cancelling British investment plans yesterday, many of the world's leading banks today announced plans to relocate key staff from London to European financial centres. As many as 60,000 jobs could be at risk.

Oh, and before Thursday we had the 5th largest economy in the world. Thanks to the Moody's downgrade and slump in sterling we've now been overtaken by France (a sclerotic failed state according to Leavers).

So to sum up, thanks to Brexit, we now have a political crisis, an impending constituiiional crisis and down the road a likely economic crisis as the country haemorrages jobs and investment.

Big difference between Moodys FORECASTING a risk of a downgrade and an ACTUAL downgrade. Also, the job relocation is a 'possibility' not a fact

From the FT

There was sabre-rattling by the big banks ahead of the vote, with the likes of JPMorgan Chase and HSBC warning that thousands of jobs would be moved out of Britain. But since the results came out they have gone quiet.

and to be honest - bankers (predominantly) in London have long been overdue a slap!

Article regarding William Oliver Healey who started the petition , a bit of a twist in the story if it is correct

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/683410/EXCLUSIVE-The-VOTE-LEAVE-backer-whose-petition-could-inadvertently-derail-the-Brexit

Missing Postal votes

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-disenfranchised-expats-denied-eu-referendum-missing-postal-votes-demand-re-run-hundreds-a7103066.html

The postal vote was heavily forecast to be in support of Brexit - if there's missing votes, that may not help the desperate losers.

[otto man]

Funny how the loudest ones are the ones who have abandoned Blighty .

Is that aimed at me ABB's?

[dave birch]

Big difference between Moodys FORECASTING a risk of a downgrade and an ACTUAL downgrade. Also, the job relocation is a 'possibility' not a fact

From the FT

There was sabre-rattling by the big banks ahead of the vote, with the likes of JPMorgan Chase and HSBC warning that thousands of jobs would be moved out of Britain. But since the results came out they have gone quiet.

and to be honest - bankers (predominantly) in London have long been overdue a slap!

Ahh, Moodys, weren't they part of that cabal that awarded to billing to mortgage securities that started the whole GFC?

And we still trust their judgement?

[Paul]

I hadn't realised this but the Government of Scotland Act in effect gives Scotland a veto over it- Westminster will have to vote to repeal whole sections of Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolution BEFORE it can propose the legislation to leave the EU

Have you got some more on this other than the parliamentary notes document? I would like to read more.

[Wing Wizard Windy Miller]

Yes I agree completely but there's a problem here. EU member states have to comply with the single market rules which allow for two key points, the EU negotiates trade deals on its members behalf and individual members are not permitted to make other deals. These are two of the arguments against EU membership.

I'm 100% in agreement the EU will wish to trade with us. The issue is the rules. No one country can make a trade deal with the UK without breaking EU rules. The UK has effectively rejected the EU single market rules. We are though in the weaker position meaning if we want trade we will have to accept:

Free movement of labour

Pay in to the EU coffers

Comply with EU legislation

I've yet to see any argument has to how any single EU member will trade with us outside of the single market. I don't think there is one.

It's all threats from the EU. They can be heavily influenced by members though. Imagine what would happen to Spain's economy/tourism industry if Brits boycotted it for a year.

[Paul]

So are you telling us that America, China, Australia etc etc do exactly this to trade with the EU? If your assertion were true the whole world would be one common market.

There are 190 plus countries through out the world, most of them ticking along quite nicely without EU membership and whatever you may think Britain can and will prosper outside of that failing club.

Obviously those countries do not contribute financially to the EU nor, for very practical reasons, do they have free movement of labour. They will though have to comply with EU legislation in many areas.

There is a huge difference between trading across the world with the EU and across the channel.

The EU cannot make us a special case simply because other near neighbours will demand the same. Other states may elect to leave the EU and expect similar treatment. If the EU is to remain strong and navigate the problems it faces its' only choice is to stand firm otherwise it probably will fail.

[Al]

In the words of Rudyard Kipling:

I could not dig; I dared not rob:

Therefore I lied to please the mob.

Now all my lies are proved untrue

And I must face the men I slew.

What tale shall serve me here among

Mine angry and defrauded young?

This article sums up the Leave trio for me https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars?CMP=share_btn_fb

Just accept the democratic result and shut up. Poor looser.

[matt83]

So we have still not started world war 3 by leaving the E.U like the pig head romancer suggested. Who would have believed it. Also the sun came up and let me just check out of the window there doesn't appear to be the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse running amok. Perhaps they've just not reached the Ribble valley yet...