[Archived] Takeover / Part Takeover ?

[tomphil]

I think there is more to this story than meets the eye.

I'm not sure about this 51% bid

If was part of a £60m consortium:

a) I wouldn't want to work with Venkys in a million years

b ) I wouldn't want the debt hanging over my investment

c) The club is virtually insolvent, why would I value half of it at £60m? You would want all of it for that money.

d) If promoted I wouldn't want to share 49% of any return with Venkys putting in ZERO extra funds.

IMO there are some games being played here I think.

I think a lot of it will depend on how the BOI view things. They could be the major players in this especially if they've been funding it on behalf of Venkys.

[Al]

I think there is more to this story than meets the eye.

I'm not sure about this 51% bid

If was part of a £60m consortium:

a) I wouldn't want to work with Venkys in a million years

b ) I wouldn't want the debt hanging over my investment

c) The club is virtually insolvent, why would I value half of it at £60m? You would want all of it for that money.

d) If promoted I wouldn't want to share 49% of any return with Venkys putting in ZERO extra funds.

IMO there are some games being played here I think.

I don't think they want to buy half the shares for £60mill. I think the deal is that they invest £60mill in the club and are given 51% of the shares as part of the deal. Venkys only get money back if the club makes a profit. That's my view anyway.

[roverstdt]

That is the way I understand it. Due to the debt we are currently in the club hasn't got much value.

I think Seneca Propose to put in place 60m for x amount of years which will be used to create a structure, bring in the right people and used to increase the transfer budget with the budget that Venky's have created for the forth coming year.

To honest I think it is a very good offer. I think fundamentally it goes down to the fact that Venky's have always operated in a way to try and make money (Just have to look at the Samba, Jones, Rhodes, saga). They aren't silly when it comes to that and while they are proud people my inclination will be that they will probably talk to the two Ian's, if only for the simple reason that if I had a company that was losing money and I had someone coming in and say"You don't need to do anything, and we will look after it all and guarantee your money back if not more" Hell i would say yes!

[koi]

Think Holdsworth and his crew brokered a similar deal with Davies to get control of Bolton.

Not a equity share, I mean a repayment of debt if they progress up the leagues.

[OJRovers]

Whatever way you look at it, £60m cash injection for 51% of the shares in BRFC suggests that the club is worth £120m which is madness.

Think Holdsworth and his crew brokered a similar deal with Davies to get control of Bolton.

Not a equity share, I mean a repayment of debt if they progress up the leagues.

i thought Davies wrote off all £100m+ of his debt which is no longer on the balance sheet of BWFC ( i might be wrong).

[koi]

Whatever way you look at it, £60m cash injection for 51% of the shares in BRFC suggests that the club is worth £120m which is madness.

Indeed. If I had £60m to invest think I'd sit on my hands for a bit as admin/liquidation is surely only round the corner.

[tomphil]

Venkys total stake in the club is about 120 mill including buying it so it seems they are coming in for half +1.

Indeed. If I had £60m to invest think I'd sit on my hands for a bit as admin/liquidation is surely only round the corner.

If V's sold 2 players this summer and two next its staves off admin and the hell continues but yes it's always been the eventual nailed on outcome since these lot & co began their reign of terror.

[joey_big_nose]

Do the sensible thing but lose face ? Carry on as they are and don't lose face ?

We all know the answer to that one.

The only way they'd sell is if somebody offered to pay them big bucks and that won't happen.

I think any face there is to be lost has been lost. Their manager has walked out and the club looks like it coukd be genuinely relegated next season.

I dont think losing face is really what its about. They just have other fish to fry and after being megastung by Kentero (to the tune of £100 million) have zero trust for anyone in football hence the impossibility to get through to them.

[Mercer]

Whenever you look at situations with huge vacuums or imbalances, you know something is going to change. It is inevitable.

What you don't know is when, how and whether what follows will be any good. I think the two Ians are to be applauded but at the end of the day, we are still looking at 141 years of history of Britain's most successful town club being deeply at risk unless and until a more football-centric ownership and management is in place.

The coming days may well prove very dramatic but I have no idea what the outcome will be.

Some very good pertinent points and warning bells that should be heeded.

I think a sense of realism is needed.

Some have doubted whether the two Ians have sufficient clout to pull this off or whether they would be sufficiently resourced to move Rovers forward. We should all hope they can pull this off because I think the stakes, not least in the short term, are high, very high.

Some have commented on some reported headline figures relative to what V's bought Rovers for. We need to remember this is a business haemorrhaging money at the rate of £20million+ per football season. I have flagged before that IMV, £40million+ would be needed for working capital just to keep the club afloat in the next two seasons (barring a miracle that we somehow got promoted next season) and to that you need to add a sizeable fighting fund (player recruitment).

There is no easy fix or solution. I think this is all very complex and critical. There will be a lot of fingers crossed amongst Rovers' fans.

[OJRovers]

Also highly likely that Bank of India would call in the £11m overdraft if there was a change in control.

That's £11m more in cash to find, because no sane bank is going to give the club an overdraft of that size at the moment.

Thinking about it, that could be the reason why the Ian's need Venkys to keep involved.

[roverstdt]

Can't there be away either through a petition or something that where the fans can voice there backing to the Seneca bid for them to at least hear it?

[Ricky]

If this doesn't happen we have to hope that Seneca still have the backers in place for when we go into administration.

[DE.]

Can't there be away either through a petition or something that where the fans can voice there backing to the Seneca bid for them to at least hear it?

The worry is that something like this could actually cause Venky's to dig their heels in further. They don't seem to take kindly to the proles attempting to make their voices heard.

[TBTF]

I think there is more to this story than meets the eye.

I'm not sure about this 51% bid

If was part of a £60m consortium:

a) I wouldn't want to work with Venkys in a million years

b ) I wouldn't want the debt hanging over my investment

c) The club is virtually insolvent, why would I value half of it at £60m? You would want all of it for that money.

d) If promoted I wouldn't want to share 49% of any return with Venkys putting in ZERO extra funds.

IMO there are some games being played here I think.

I think we have to understand that these two (Seneca ) do this stuff for a living and are very serious operators. Not for one minute will they have put up a half arsed plan. I read somewhere on here yesterday that Nixon I think (maybe even kamy) called at a ''very clever plan''.

I firmly believe it will be. The issue will be is it too clever for V's??

Theres no chance Seneca will have tabled something without regard for what is further down the line and how it is will be funded..I am convinced they will have covered all the right angles in trying to make this work.

I think we might be on a different level with these 2 and for that reason I pray that Venkys listen.

people with money to bring and nous to know what running a business entails AND being Rovers fans as well is like dreamland from where I am sat.at the minute.

[Mercer]

Also highly likely that Bank of India would call in the £11m overdraft if there was a change in control.

That's £11m more in cash to find, because no sane bank is going to give the club an overdraft of that size at the moment.

Thinking about it, that could be the reason why the Ian's need Venkys to keep involved.

We are told in Rovers' accounts that BOI reserves the right to ask for a debenture over company (The Blackburn Rovers Football and Athletic Limited) assets; should this happen, I would fear the worst. BOI would have up to 21 days (from the day after the date of creation) to register this at Companies House and a lot of water can flow under the bridge in 21 days!

[philipl]

I understand Venky's have put yet more money in to resolve net current liabilities, Thankfully at present we don't need to worry about bank liens over assets or the horrible player deals which are a legacy of recent past largesse.

[BigUts]

We are told in Rovers' accounts that BOI reserves the right to ask for a debenture over company (The Blackburn Rovers Football and Athletic Limited) assets; should this happen, I would fear the worst. BOI would have up to 21 days (from the day after the date of creation) to register this at Companies House and a lot of water can flow under the bridge in 21 days!

Does that mean that they could effectively force a "mortgage" on said assets, not that they could call it in immediately? [My financial knowledge is seriously lacking so I could be way off the mark here!!]

[scotty_beam_me_up]

I just don't understand the figures involved at all. This deal seems to put us around a value of £120. The thing that stops me getting excited is that if the people getting involved are good in business why would they go anywhere near this deal. Boro under a great chairman having been trying for 7 years to go up. Derby having been throwing money at it for a few years and still no joy. There is no set formula for getting out the league.

What I'm saying is I find it highly unlikely anyone sensible would gamble such a massive investment for such a small chance of a return. As has been stated above administration is not far away so why not wait for that.

It's fantastic news if it happens but I just don't understand it.

[Mercer]

If this doesn't happen we have to hope that Seneca still have the backers in place for when we go into administration.

Should Rovers go into Administration, they will start next season on -12 points and it could get worse! I think Administration would be more problematical and more difficult to recover from.

[Mercer]

Does that mean that they could effectively force a "mortgage" on said assets, not that they could call it in immediately? [My financial knowledge is seriously lacking so I could be way off the mark here!!]

'Debentures' and 'Charges' can be complex instruments. Needless to say, you would rather be a secured creditor if an insolvency situation was looming.

[Iceman]

I just don't understand the figures involved at all. This deal seems to put us around a value of £120. The thing that stops me getting excited is that if the people getting involved are good in business why would they go anywhere near this deal. Boro under a great chairman having been trying for 7 years to go up. Derby having been throwing money at it for a few years and still no joy. There is no set formula for getting out the league.

What I'm saying is I find it highly unlikely anyone sensible would gamble such a massive investment for such a small chance of a return. As has been stated above administration is not far away so why not wait for that.

It's fantastic news if it happens but I just don't understand it.

The way things are going, we will very well be worth £120 if these clowns dont sell

Venkys Out, or I'm Out!

[A cup of beans]

I'm holding onto the hope that the Ian's got encouragement somewhere along the line.

I'm also pretty sure that a deal of this nature has been extensively researched and finalised.

Therefore, I'd say any Rover (Rev) who's worried, that the deal wont have the finance in place, would be worrying unduly.

I'm staying positive. This new excitement means :I'm in a far better place than I was at 2:30pm on Saturday. Long may it continue.

[blue kiwi]

If venkys turn down this bid they must be mad.Its a way out for them they have been clueless from day one.Ok Indians don't like losing face but they are hemeraging money hand over fist.

Let them take kentro to court as minority shareholders and I think that will help there cause.At the end of the day the only people who have suffered are the fans.IF two of our own can get us back some stability I welcome it.The last fan we had in charge did great.

[JHRover]

But the figure of £60 million isn't just to obtain 51% of the club, it is the amount they will invest to presumably cover running costs, wages, investments, infrastructure over a period of time. If they keep the current status quo that £60 million would probably last the club 4 or 5 years before they needed to find more, but if they invest in quality players then it would probably last 2-3 years. If it achieved promotion then the gamble will have paid off with interest for Seneca as they would then control a Premier League football club for an investment of £60 million.

I remember when Jack Hayward sold out of Wolves for £10 to Steve Morgan on the proviso that he then invested £30 million into the club over time. That doesn't mean Wolves were worth £10 and it doesn't mean they were worth £30 million. This would be a similar arrangement, with the added sweetner for Venkys that they would be able to retain a share which in the event of promotion could be very valuable and would enable them to gain publicity and develop the club abroad.

In my opinion a minority shareholding is what Venkys should have gone for in the first place. Enough of a share to be able to get their name out and develop their brand, but not enough to have responsibility for running the club.

[koi]

Whatever way you look at it, £60m cash injection for 51% of the shares in BRFC suggests that the club is worth £120m which is madness.

i thought Davies wrote off all £100m+ of his debt which is no longer on the balance sheet of BWFC ( i might be wrong).

Yes he did, but as I understand it he kept some loans in place that will be repaid if they get in the PL. I also think he has a share of PL TV rights if they ever get that opportunity again.