[Archived] Dear Brexit & Trump Voters

[Dreyski]

First of all, it's probably no secret that I was in the remain camp, and wouldn't have voted for Trump had I been eligible. But we are where we are, and I accept that. This is not a thread for gloating, nor is it a thread for moaning. Think of this as an olive branch, from me to you.

What I would like to know is (answer any as appropriate):

1. One day, article 50 will be invoked. What do you want to happen on the date we leave, and where do you think UK will stand 1/5/10 years after we leave?

2. Trump is inaugurated sometime in the new year. With a pliant Congress and judiciary, what you hope he achieves in his first 100 days? Where do you think will the US stand at the end of his first term?

Thank you.

[yoda]

I would like the EU to revert to the common market and not a political behemoth

Be the USA's No1 European trade partner

[Steve Kean's Hypnotoad]

1. I want a "hard Brexit" and I'm pretty sure that's the only type the EU will allow us to have anyway. I then want us to negotiate new trade deals with the EU and continue a close political and military alliance with them but be very much an independent entity.

I want out of free movement of people and this will allow us to bring immigration figures down to what the Conservatives have always targeted anyway (below 100,000 per year). Not saying this will happen straight away, but being able to do it is good enough for now. This will slow overpopulation, slow the increasing strain on public services, the transport network, house building on green belt land etc.

It will also give us at least a shot at making integration work, particularly regarding Muslims. There's a quiet battle been raging in UK muslim communities since they arrived here between moderate western influences and ultra-conservative Islamist influences. It's a battle we're losing in my opinion, and constant mass immigration causes no end of trouble in losing it further.

2. I hope the US achieves what most of the people clearly want on immigration too. A big reduction in illegal immigration from Mexico and extremely tight screening from elsewhere. Trump obviously wants to fight domestic Islamic terror in its infancy by playing the numbers game. A concept I'm sure Nigeria, India, Thailand, Kenya, Phillipines, France etc can understand.

Regarding his other policies, well he's clearly an isolationist who puts America first. No more policing the world and no more tip-toeing around China on trade deals. The objective of both is to make America wealthier, which I then expect him to inject into the private sector, which he will then hope increases tax revenue for the public sector. Good luck to him, hope it works as personally I've always deemed America our truest friend.

[koi]

1. In my wildest dreams, euro flags on number plates banned. Philip says the country will collapse after Brexit so I predict African nations will hold annual charity events for our benefit.

2. A big wall.

[MarkBRFC71]

2. I hope the US achieves what most of the people clearly want on immigration too. A big reduction in illegal immigration from Mexico and extremely tight screening from elsewhere. Trump obviously wants to fight domestic Islamic terror in its infancy by playing the numbers game. A concept I'm sure Nigeria, India, Thailand, Kenya, Phillipines, France etc can understand.

Don't disagree that controls are needed, but weren't the Boston Bombers, Orlando nightclub and San Bernadino shooters (to use 3 recent examples) radicalised American citizens? If these people are already in the country, what is stopping or limiting immigration going to do other than further alienate Muslims already in the US by singling them out, and potentially turn them (in greater numbers) toward radicalisation? Yet again, he's come up with a soundbite and slogan with no real plan behind it - like 'build the wall' which in the real world is never going to happen, much less is Mexico going to pay for it.

[jim mk2]

.

1. A "soft" Brexit in which Britain continues to be full trading partner of the EU and in return accept the EU's "four freedoms" of movement of goods, services, capital and particularly the people who have enriched the life of our multicultural country in recent decades. Ten years on, I see us possible slightly weaker in terms of GDP growth than had we remained a full EU member and hopefully more outward looking again after this dreadful period of xenophobia and introspection which is destroying our international reputation as a fair-minded, tolerant nation.

2. Tax cuts for the richest and corporations. Trump is a member of the elite 1% and will act accordingly. Hopefully, the good people of the US who did not vote for Trump will not have to suffer him for a full term.

[Baz]

1. One day, article 50 will be invoked. What do you want to happen on the date we leave, and where do you think UK will stand 1/5/10 years after we leave?

I'd hope that despite noises about not being able to start until we trigger article 50, that we'd have a deal sorted with the EU for tariff free trade, and full access to the market, as well as deals agreed with our other major trading partners.

I think we'll see over the few years beyond that the gradual reversal of workers rights under the auspice of having to be 'more flexible' to get foreign investment, and more political influence in our justice system. Economically- really depends on the deals we can do, how well the EU does / doesnt do. Probably slightly lower immigration - more likely the government will change the rules and not include those on student visas or short term working visas as immigrants- and claim a massive success.

2. Trump is inaugurated sometime in the new year. With a pliant house and judiciary, what you hope he achieves in his first 100 days? Where do you think will the US stand at the end of his first term?

Think he'll start the demolition of obama care and bring in massive tax cuts for the super-rich, in the hope that having lower corporation (or equivalent) taxes will stimulate the economy to be bigger overall, and the money will trickle down through the rest of the population. If it does he'll have the investment money for infrastructure he needs, if its stifled away by the super-rich (eg trumps tax returns), then he'll either have a massive hole in the economy, or have to cut back his ambition. I also think he's going to have to spend a lot of time fleshing out his soundbites into workable policy. Renegotiating trade deals maybe a lot harder and take much longer than he anticipates.

[MarkBRFC71]

Well the man himself reckons he's going to do all this in 100 days. Back in the real world he'll be lucky if he gets through half of it in 4 years:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/contract/

[Steve Kean's Hypnotoad]

Don't disagree that controls are needed, but weren't the Boston Bombers, Orlando nightclub and San Bernadino shooters (to use 3 recent examples) radicalised American citizens? If these people are already in the country, what is stopping or limiting immigration going to do other than further alienate Muslims already in the US by singling them out, and potentially turn them (in greater numbers) toward radicalisation? Yet again, he's come up with a soundbite and slogan with no real plan behind it - like 'build the wall' which in the real world is never going to happen, much less is Mexico going to pay for it.

Well like I said its a numbers game. There's no predicting who will be radicalised into carrying out these attacks (even the immediate family members are always "shocked" after the event) so literally the only thing that can be deduced from them is it's always a Muslim. So it's simple logic and maths in my opinion. Reduce the number of Muslims, reduce the number of attacks. Evidence from around the world in the last 50 years backs this up, it's obvious.

It's obvious but you can't say it because it generalises a large group based on the actions of a tiny minority. So it gets labelled prejudiced. I honestly do get that but doesn't the same thing happen all the time? In England nobody accused Cameron of being prejudiced in his "hug a hoodie" speech. It was a generalisation based on low to mid-level crime being carried out by a disproportionate number of people wearing hoodies. Probably 99.9% or more of people who wear hoodies had never had anything to do with crime. Governments make policies based on positive or negative generalisations constantly, you have to when you're dealing with tens of millions of people.

If there was a better solution I'd be all for it, as you say a different solution would doubtless be less devisive. But I've not heard one. And at current levels of demographic change, America's muslim population will continue increasing. So the same small percentage of more and more people will be getting the same genocidal evil whispered into their ears that the Nice lorry attacker, Rouen priest murderers, 7/7 bombers etc were whispered.

It was interesting to me that when Trump first came out with the policy, he qualified it with "until we can figure out what's going on". What I really think that means is "until we can fully westernise Muslims already here". If you could somehow achieve that, maybe they'd tell the new arrivals to cut the pro-IS bull**** at the gate.

[onlyonetugay]

1) I'm not sure if the EU will exist in 5 years , but on the day we leave I hope the EU leaders and bureaucrats will have stopped talking and behaving vindictively, towards the UK, swallow their pride and realise that a sensible trade agreement will be good for the people on both sides of the channel. However I'm not particularly worried about the EU , it's the United Kingdom that concerns me. The rise of pernicious nationalism in Scotland and similar seeds being sown in Wales is my greatest worry. Politicians and political parties that wrap themselves up in their national flags and spout the nationalistic and populist policies of division must be challenged by both sides of the political spectrum. I hope that in 10 years we will have seen the back of both Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party and we can return to a united United Kingdom

2) This is a difficult one. In the first 100 days I hope he can unite the US and the violent demonstrations we saw in major cities from those that disagreed with the result of the election will not escalate . As Barack Obama said in his speech yesterday " We are now rooting for his success in uniting and leading the country" I hope he keeps his promises of investing in infrastructure and manufacturing, and after 4 years hopefully he'll have brought back jobs and prosperity to the working class communities across the US that have been failed by the political elite. If he does that he might even get another 4 years !

[Steve Moss]

1. I hope the UK and the USA are strong trade partners, regardless of what happens in the EU. Going further, if I were to bend on "free" trade, including movements of people, I would want to first see that with the USA and the UK, followed by the rest of the Commonwealth.

2. Trump's on record as to what he wants within the first 100 days. Here it is: http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days. And contrary to the belief of some, he'll get most of it within 100 days as the Republicans control all three branches of government (once he appoints his Supreme Court justice). That hasn't happened since 1928.

Don't disagree that controls are needed, but weren't the Boston Bombers, Orlando nightclub and San Bernadino shooters (to use 3 recent examples) radicalised American citizens? If these people are already in the country, what is stopping or limiting immigration going to do other than further alienate Muslims already in the US by singling them out, and potentially turn them (in greater numbers) toward radicalisation? Yet again, he's come up with a soundbite and slogan with no real plan behind it - like 'build the wall' which in the real world is never going to happen, much less is Mexico going to pay for it.

They were either immigrants themselves or children of radical immigrants. The Orlando shooter's father, for example, is a Taliban supporter who immigrated to the USA. Under Trump's plan the father would not have been here in the first place.

We have enough crazy shooters without importing them.

[yoda]

1. I hope the UK and the USA are strong trade partners, regardless of what happens in the EU. Going further, if I were to bend on "free" trade, including movements of people, I would want to first see that with the USA and the UK, followed by the rest of the Commonwealth.

2. Trump's on record as to what he wants within the first 100 days. Here it is: http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days. And contrary to the belief of some, he'll get most of it within 100 days as the Republicans control all three branches of government (once he appoints his Supreme Court justice). That hasn't happened since 1928.

They were either immigrants themselves or children of radical immigrants. The Orlando shooter's father, for example, is a Taliban supporter who immigrated to the USA. Under Trump's plan the father would not have been here in the first place.

We have enough crazy shooters without importing them.

That was a good year for Blackburn Rovers

[Dreyski]

2. Trump's on record as to what he wants within the first 100 days. Here it is: http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days. And contrary to the belief of some, he'll get most of it within 100 days as the Republicans control all three branches of government (once he appoints his Supreme Court justice). That hasn't happened since 1928.

Well, let's hope you don't get 'Trumpvilles' springing up across the US as happened after 1928.

It's quite an ambitious list, obviously I don't agree with everything on it, but he's certainly keeping his staff busy, and fighting corruption is always a crowd pleaser.

I see he still thinks Mexico is going to pay for the wall...

[Steve Moss]

I see he still thinks Mexico is going to pay for the wall...

He will. And he has 5 ways of sticking them with the bill, regardless of what they want,

[MarkBRFC71]

2. Trump's on record as to what he wants within the first 100 days. Here it is: http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days. And contrary to the belief of some, he'll get most of it within 100 days as the Republicans control all three branches of government (once he appoints his Supreme Court justice). That hasn't happened since 1928.

Except he won't - while his campaign team have some good ideas (they're clearly not his - he's not that clever), a lot of it was unworkable boll*cks to purely win votes, and fortunately I can't see even half of it getting implemented. He's a puppet - the real power will be in the wings - I don't think he has enough support within his own party to make it happen, especially not the crazy stuff. Not all Republicans are bigoted or foolish enough to risk the party's future on the slogans and soundbites of a madman so be ready for a lot of vetoed propositions. They're surely not that blind to see that if they DO try to push ALL these things through, then they'd better be prepared for possible widespread civil unrest, the GOP being sidelined to history and the biggest Democratic majority in history in 2020? One thing for sure, he's going to be the most universally disliked, disrespected President in history - the rest of the world think he's a joke. And not a particularly funny one.

And when are you guys going to ditch the daft electoral college system - it seems unnecessarily complicated and can end up with what we have now - a President that the majority of the country don't want. Make it simple - whoever gets the most votes, wins?

He will. And he has 5 ways of sticking them with the bill, regardless of what they want,

Which are? I'm interested to see how he thinks he'll get them to pay because I think it was yet more pie-in-the-sky nonsense designed to stir up hate and bigotry and win votes and was never a serious proposition. Even if he does try to build it it's going to cost $40bn at the last estimate - how is he going to get Mexico to pay for that - in only 4 years?

[Steve Moss]

And when are you guys going to ditch the daft electoral college system - it seems unnecessarily complicated and can end up with what we have now - a President that the majority of the country don't want. Make it simple - whoever gets the most votes, wins?

Which are? I'm interested to see how he thinks he'll get them to pay because I think it was yet more pie-in-the-sky nonsense designed to stir up hate and bigotry and win votes and was never a serious proposition. Even if he does try to build it it's going to cost $40bn at the last estimate - how is he going to get Mexico to pay for that - in only 4 years?

No thanks. We are a Republic, not a Democracy, which far too many people tend to forget.

Here's a list of 5 ways Trump could make Mexico pay for the wall. http://klewtv.com/news/nation-world/five-ways-donald-trump-can-make-mexico-pay-for-the-wall

You can add a 6th, which is taxing foreign remittances. Last year, Mexicans sent $24 billion back into Mexico for their families. This is about 2% of their GDP.

None of these methods require Mexico to write a single check, but Trump can still extract the cash.

Personally, I favor a combination of: 1) taxing remittances; 2) imposing a fee the 5.4 million trucks that cross the border; and, 3) imposing a tariff on goods coming into from Mexico. The wall will get built and if Mexico controls it's side of the border, then they can all be dialed back once it's up and the border secure.

And a former foreign minister for Mexico agrees that Trump could easily build the wall at Mexico's expense and deport millions of illegals. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ex-mex-diplomat-trump-can-get-mexico-to-pay-for-wall-deport-4m-illegals/article/2602588

[ultrablue]

He'll turn the existing fences into a wall, impose some small tariffs or fees on Mexican imports and say that paid for it. He'll go down there, wearing a daft flak jacket like something out of sicario and cut the ribbon and Johnny Budweiser in DeMoines will cream his pants.

In the meantime, net migration over the border will not be much affected. It may go up, or it may continue the decrease its been going through over the last few years.

That by the way is a win win for Trump. He gets his photo op and doesnt annoy his fellow fat cats (or his own contractors) that rely on immigrant labour.

If he does put his foot down and increases border security to a greater extent, there are a lot of experts that say it would increase the number of illegal immigrants in the States. Rather than going back and forth as many have always done, illegal immigrants already in America will likely stay for fear of never being able to get back in if they leave. Measures that supposed to keep people out actually trap them in.

https://m.mic.com/articles/141512/here-s-what-d-happen-if-we-tried-to-build-trump-s-wall-and-it-s-not-what-he-thinks#.gsBZ0XQs5

So yes, a wall might be built, Mexico might indirectly pay for it. But illegal immigrant labour will still be a major part of the US economy. And Trump may just be dumb enough to reverse the currently declining numbers.

[philipl]

That list of ways of getting Mexico to pay for a wall is a joke. The pain they will inflict on the American economy will be far greater than the income generated. People have no idea how integrated modern supply chains are.

Add them up and there is still a zero missing off the cost of the wall.

[Steve Kean's Hypnotoad]

I'm pretty sure a big enough wall would severely decrease illegal border crossings. A source I read said that while there's obviously no official record of the numbers crossing, its roughly measured by an educated estimate that a third of of those who attempt it are caught. I think it was from 2014 this figure but something like 330,000 were caught during that year. So 660,000 illegally crossed in one year. That's a pretty big number and I'm pretty sure say a 10-15 foot wall would reduce that by at least 90%.

I would imagine the cost of the thing would be gargantuan, it'd have to be 2,000 miles long! You'd probably be able to see the thing from space. I'm pretty sure when Trump says Mexico would pay for it, he means either cutting aid or putting a tax on money sent back across the border from immigrants in the US. Seriously, seriously doubt its gonna happen though.

[Claytons Left Boot]

May be they could get the Chinese to build it. They're pretty good at them or, at least, they were. lol.

[koi]

Wonder if they'll get the Hoff to sing on the top of it?

[MarkBRFC71]

Wonder if they'll get the Hoff to sing on the top of it?

That'll be in 4 years when the next Democratic President tears it down - assuming it ever gets built.

[Steve Moss]

That list of ways of getting Mexico to pay for a wall is a joke. The pain they will inflict on the American economy will be far greater than the income generated. People have no idea how integrated modern supply chains are.

Add them up and there is still a zero missing off the cost of the wall.

Your math is very poor.

[Steve Kean's Hypnotoad]

Wonder if they'll get the Hoff to sing on the top of it?

They could paint Trump's face on it every 5 metres or so with one of his slogans, that would lift everyones' spirits.

[yoda]

Wonder if they'll get the Hoff to sing on the top of it?

They could paint Trump's face on it every 5 metres or so with one of his slogans, that would lift everyones' spirits.

Everybody knows her, little Miss Rosa The queen of the trailer park Well, she's a hot pepper and you'll never forget her

If you ever let her break your heart Senor' Jose, works all day Sweatin' in the red hot sun Row after row, everybody knows What they do when the weekend comes He drinks tequila, and she talks dirty in spanish Him in his sombrero, her in her purty pink jammies They dance all night to the Mariachis Till there ain't nobody left standin' He drinks tequila, and she talks dirty in spanish Well, the music is blarin' and the neighbors are starin' That whole dang trailer is a-rockin' Jose's a-howling', the Chihuahua's growlin' And Rosie's peelin' off her silk stockings "Your so naughty, kiss my body, abrzame fuerte." "Ay, yi yi yi yi, hoochie-coo, toda la noche" He drinks tequila, and she talks dirty in spanish Him in his sombrero, her in her purty pink jammies They dance all night to the Mariachis Till there ain't nobody left standin' He drinks tequila, and she talks dirty in spanish He drinks tequila, and she talks dirty in spanish Him in his sombrero, her in her purty pink jammies The dance all night to the Mariachis Till there ain't nobody left standin' He drinks tequila, and she talks dirty in spanish