[Archived] Will 45pts save us.

[Oldgregg86]

I was with you until you said we are better than huddersfield. Even with Fergie as manager and Clough as his assistant he wouldn't get that squad into top 3

[skous18]

On Wednesday, March 08, 2017 at 9:14 AM, 1864roverite said:

my take on it.

 

The other teams around us have similar run ins with a lot of difficult games. I know that at the end of a season there are some freak results but looking at the fixtures now we have to forget about Rotherham who are now almost gone, once conformed they will haver little else but pride to play for, they may just upset one of either Wolves or Wigan. Leeds, Huddersfield and Brighton feature heavily and will no doubt take 3 points from the games v our rivals, which helps us enormously. Interestingly, there are not many 6 pointers. Rovers have MUST WIN games versus Bristol C, Bristol have Wigan, Wolves and us, Wigan have Bristol, Wolves have Bristol and Rovers whilst Burton have none. What Burton do have is derby matches v Forest, Villa and Birmingham whilst also having to face Leeds, Huddersfield, Reading and Newcastle, all promotion chasing clubs. So the key is our 4 home games, win all and we are home and dry (almost), anything gained on the road is a bonus and the must not lose games being Forest, Bristol and Wolves.

Its interesting that of all the teams Rovers are the only away team on the last match of the season ! Could be a tasty game at Brentford.

Rovers.

Norwich A 1pt

Fulham A 1pt

PNE H 3pt

BHA A 0pt

Reading A 0pt

Barnsley H 3pt

Forest A 1pt

Bristol city H 3pt

Wolves A 1pt

Villa H 3pt

Brentford A 1pt

 

Wigan	Bristol City	Wolves	Burton
Bristol City (h) 1	Wigan (a) 1	Rotherham (h)3	Notts Forest (h)1
		Brentford (a)
Villa (h) 0	Huddersfield (h) 0	Fulham (a) 0	Brentford (h) 1
Newcastle (a)0	Brentford (a)0	Cardiff (h) 0	Huddersfield (a)0
Ipswich (a) 0	PNE (a) 0	Notts Forest (h)1	Newcastle (a)0
Rotherham (h)3	Wolves (h)1	Bristol City (a) 1	Villa (h) 0
Barnsley (h) 1	QPR (h) 1	Brighton (h) 0	Ipswich (h)1
Brighton (a)0	Rovers (a)0	Leeds (a) 0	Birmingham (a)1
Cardiff (h) 1	Barnsley (h)1	Rovers (h)1	Leeds (h)0
Reading (a)0	Brighton (a)0	Derby (a)0	Barnsley (a) 0
Leeds (h)0	Birmingham (h)1	PNE (h)0	Reading (h) 0

Lol so Wigan and Wolves to win just once, and Bristol and Burton without even a win until the wend of the season :d:d

Lets hope so

[Athlete]

Looking at the run ins wigan and Bristol have the hardest 

[blueboy3333]

1 hour ago, dingles staying down 4ever said:

I agree that Rovers are a poor team. But Mercerman is quite right this a poor league. I think with a decent management team who could have got fitness and tactics better I think Rovers could have been pushing the edge of the playoffs.

At the risk of sounding wee Owen, with the exception of the first two games of the season no team has giving us a pasting. Sure on the pitch we lacked leadership, ran out of steam after an hour and generally looked like we did not know what we were doing but that IMO comes down to poor management.

I feel if Warnock had turned up instead of wee Owen this season would have been very different. If only someone during the summer had a bit of vision and declared it an opportunity.....eh Venky's?

I agree, and I think Preston & Barnsley are proof of that.  Birmingham too if they hadn't sacked Rowett. Their players are no better than ours, it's just ours were so embarrassingly poorly prepared. 

Holloway once got promoted with one the lowest wage bills in the division.

Players count obviously, but good managers can get a very good tune out of a fairly average squad.

[TBTF]

8 hours ago, blueboy3333 said:

I agree, and I think Preston & Barnsley are proof of that.  Birmingham too if they hadn't sacked Rowett. Their players are no better than ours, it's just ours were so embarrassingly poorly prepared. 

Holloway once got promoted with one the lowest wage bills in the division.

Players count obviously, but good managers can get a very good tune out of a fairly average squad.

Agreed . I am not quite at the ''Mowbrays new dawn'' stage yet however. Sure ,we look at lot more organised in a defensive sense but I somehow think we look less threatening albeit we created chances when chasing the game against Cardiff- but only after we had gone behind and we barely created much in the 2 1-0 wins before that.

The flaws in our squad (which venkys didn't see the need to eradicate with a half decent transfer budget ) are still there for all to see and in 5 games time we will know exactly how good Mowbray has been at getting this tune out of them. As much as I'd like to think we wont be back in the bottom 3 again this season , the truth is I fear we will be during the course of the next 5 games, largely because draws are unlikely to suffice and i don't see us winning more than one if any at all of the next 4 away games.

Please god let me be talking rubbish and prove me wrong but I still thin we have a lot to do yet. Even 7 points from the next 5 games wouldn't be horrendous looking at them but if that's all we get we could well be back in the relegation places.

 

Put it this way, back on topic , no way will we be safe with 45 points this season. I think we will need 50 plus.

  

[scotty_beam_me_up]

With Rotherham basically giving everyone (apart from us) 6 points, I think it will be 48 points at least to stay in the league. We do have a slightly easier run in than some but I don't hold much faith in run ins when a lot of mid table championship teams are on the beach once they know they are safe.

 I said 4th from bottom at the start of the season and sticking with that but doesn't make me any less nervous.

[blueboy3333]

Next lot of fixtures and table. Draw at Fulham and we're back above Brizzle. We've brought a few teams back into it since Mowbray came in and given ourselves a chance:-

16	Ipswich	37	10	15	12	37	44	-7	45	DDDDDD
17	Birmingham	37	11	11	15	38	54	-16	44	LLWLLD
18	Burton	37	10	11	16	36	48	-12	41	WDDDDW
19	Nottingham Forest	37	11	7	19	51	62	-11	40	LLDWLL
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers	35	10	9	16	41	46	-5	39	LLLLDW
21	Bristol City	37	10	8	19	46	53	-7	38	LDLDDW
22	Blackburn	36	9	11	16	42	53	-11	38	LDWWDD
23	Wigan	37	8	10	19	31	42	-11	34	DLDLWL
24	Rotherham	37	4	5	28	32	82	-50	17	LLLLLL

 

Tuesday, Mar 14 2017
	19:45		Fulham	vs	Blackburn
	19:45		Brentford	vs	Wolverhampton Wanderers
Friday, Mar 17 2017
	19:45		Bristol City	vs	Huddersfield
	19:45		Sheffield Wednesday	vs	Reading
Saturday, Mar 18 2017
	13:00		Nottingham Forest	vs	Derby
	13:00		Blackburn	vs	Preston
	15:00		Norwich	vs	Barnsley
	15:00		Birmingham	vs	Newcastle United
	15:00		Burton	vs	Brentford
	15:00		Cardiff	vs	Ipswich
	15:00		Fulham	vs	Wolverhampton Wanderers
	15:00		Queens Park Rangers	vs	Rotherham
	15:00		Wigan	vs	Aston Villa
	17:30		Leeds	vs	Brighton

[Blue blood]

Reckon a number of teams are looking very worriedly over their shoulders. Very hard to call as teams like Forrest and Wolves can play excellently or be appalling. A few bad performances from them and they could well be replacing us in the zone. (Think both will survive though.) Brum probably will also survive thanks to Rowett. Bristol and Burton have weak squads, Wigan have a weak manager so there's a convincing case for many of the teams that they could go down.

[Tom]

Draw at Fulham and the pressure is on Bristol on Friday night, a win and we leapfrog a few, a loss and we still aren't adrift.

Anyone have the table from when Mowbray joined?

[wolfie]

14	Brentford	32	6	5	4	25	16	5	2	10	21	30	0	40
15	QPR	33	5	4	8	17	25	6	3	7	19	21	-10	40
16	Birmingham	33	7	4	6	21	23	3	6	7	13	25	-14	40
17	Aston Villa	32	6	7	2	22	16	2	5	10	8	22	-8	36
18	Nottm Forest	33	8	3	5	27	22	2	3	12	19	36	-12	36
19	Wolves	31	4	3	8	18	24	5	5	6	20	18	-4	35
20	Burton	33	7	2	7	17	16	2	6	9	16	30	-13	35
21	Bristol C	31	7	2	6	20	18	2	3	11	22	28	-4	32
22	Wigan	33	3	5	8	12	18	4	4	9	18	22	-10	30
23	Blackburn	31	5	5	6	22	24	2	3	10	14	25	-13	29
24	Rotherham	33	4	4	8	20	25	0	1	16	10	48	-43	17

 

[47er]

Interesting. From that table, we were 6 points behind Burton then and we are still 5 points behind them now, despite a superb revival.

Only Wigan have hit the dust. Going to be a cliff-hanger.

Bristol's fixtures may save us but, to me, its between us and them.

[Tom]

But we are now 2 behind forest, 1 behind wolves and level with Bristol (with a game in hand) and above Wigan, that's some going in 2 weeks or so 

[47er]

37 minutes ago, Tom said:

But we are now 2 behind forest, 1 behind wolves and level with Bristol (with a game in hand) and above Wigan, that's some going in 2 weeks or so 

The game in hand is Fulham away though. You never known ,of course, but you wouldn't bank on anything there would you?

 

[duggy9197]

fulham season has been full of false dawns,look at the barcodes take 7 pts in 3 tough away games then lose to fulham,put it this way i will be dissapointed if we lose at foolham.

[dingles staying down 4ever]

You can't be disappointed if we lose at Fulham. Take anything from there will be a bonus.

[Parsonblue]

I don't believe 45 points will be anywhere near good enough to keep us up.  We need to be looking to get to the 50 mark and possibly one or two points more.  Whilst Bristol have some difficult games they also have four very winnable home games.  I still think Burton will get dragged into the drop zone at some point but the bottom line is that we need to win games irrespective of what the others do.  Wigan have now lost two huge games against ourselves and Bristol and are starting to look to be in real trouble.   

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

Not looking forward to the next two games against revitalized teams tbh.

Going down to the wire is this,nerves will be shredded.

[duggy9197]

3 hours ago, Parsonblue said:

I don't believe 45 points will be anywhere near good enough to keep us up.  We need to be looking to get to the 50 mark and possibly one or two points more.  Whilst Bristol have some difficult games they also have four very winnable home games.  I still think Burton will get dragged into the drop zone at some point but the bottom line is that we need to win games irrespective of what the others do.  Wigan have now lost two huge games against ourselves and Bristol and are starting to look to be in real trouble.   

You can only go off what has happened previously and over the last 6 seasons 45 pts has been enough,saying that i think we are 4pts ahead of my total when i started the topic.IMO the new manager effect has worked wonders and Bristol could still use that as a last throw of the card.Easter Monday will be the crunch day.

[Bigdoggsteel]

Wigan are gone. They have lost their last 2 games against their 2 direct rivals. I can't see them going and getting results other teams where needed. 

There is 1 relegation place left between around 5 teams; Us, Bristol, Burton, Wolves and Forest. If Coyle was still here we would be cut adrift just like Wigan and teams ahead of us would be breathing easy. It is credit to Mowbray that we have managed to turn this into a 5 team shoot-out for the final place. The fact that us, Bristol and Burton have been down here a while (and us getting a proper manager) could stand to us ,as we have been under no illusion that we are in a scrap. The reality has just crept up on Wolves and Forest and thats why I predict one of them will go. I also think we will be safe with 2-3 games remaining. 

The highlighted sequence of games are so big in actually makes me nervous looking at them. Thank God Mowbray has a bit of a break after PNE to work with the squad in more detail

Win - Derby H 

Win - Wigan H 

Lose - Cardiff H 

Lose - Norwich A 

Draw - Fulham A 

Win - PNE H 

Lose - BHA A 

Lose - Reading A 

Draw - Barnsley H 

Draw - Forest A 

Win - Bristol city H 

Draw - Wolves A 

Draw - Villa H 

Lose - Brentford A 

[philipl]

Let's be scientific- these are the points and goal difference needed for the 22 nd placed club to get above the 21st placed club and achieve survival in each of the last ten seasons:

2015/16  49 pts -17 GD

2014/15  46 pts -20 GD 

2013/14  44 pts -15 GD (Doncaster went down on GD)

2012/13  55 pts -13 GD (Peterborough went down with 54 pts and Wolves went down with 51 pts- we only stayed up by a margin of 4pts) 

2011/12  48 pts -24 GD

2010/11  48 pts -25 GD

2009/10  49 pts -2 GD (Palace had 10 points deducted for going bust)

2008/9    51 pts -12 GD

2007/8    53 pts -11 GD

2006/7    49 pts -15 GD

 

So the average survival target over 10 Championship seasons is 49.2 points and a goal difference of -15.4

We need to collect 11 points from the 10 remaining games and not let the goal difference worsen by more than 4 over what it is now if we are to get to the about the average survival target.

My gut feel with the recent managerial changes is survival will be at about 51 points this season which means we need something like W3 D4 L3 from the last 10 starting tonight. Not impossible but by no means a certainty.

 

[blueboy3333]

35 minutes ago, philipl said:

Let's be scientific- these are the points and goal difference needed for the 22 nd placed club to get above the 21st placed club and achieve survival in each of the last ten seasons:

2015/16  49 pts -17 GD

2014/15  46 pts -20 GD 

2013/14  44 pts -15 GD (Doncaster went down on GD)

2012/13  55 pts -13 GD (Peterborough went down with 54 pts and Wolves went down with 51 pts- we only stayed up by a margin of 4pts) 

2011/12  48 pts -24 GD

2010/11  48 pts -25 GD

2009/10  49 pts -2 GD (Palace had 10 points deducted for going bust)

2008/9    51 pts -12 GD

2007/8    53 pts -11 GD

2006/7    49 pts -15 GD

 

So the average survival target over 10 Championship seasons is 49.2 points and a goal difference of -15.4

We need to collect 11 points from the 10 remaining games and not let the goal difference worsen by more than 4 over what it is now if we are to get to the about the average survival target.

My gut feel with the recent managerial changes is survival will be at about 51 points this season which means we need something like W3 D4 L3 from the last 10 starting tonight. Not impossible but by no means a certainty.

 

They are the points totals for the team in 21st. They aren't the points totals needed to stay up.

For example, last season Rotherham stayed up on 49pts but they only actually needed 41 because Charlton, who finished 22nd, only got 40pts:-

21	Rotherham	46	13	10	23	53	71	-18	49
22	Charlton	46	9	13	24	40	80	-40	40
23	MK Dons	46	9	12	25	39	69	-30	39
24	Bolton	46	5	15	26	41	81	-40	30

Agree though that it might take over 50 points to survive.

 

[mcflash]

45 points would have kept you up in four of the last five seasons but looking at the table right now and I'd say you'll need close to 50 to survive this season. If we get 10 points from our last 10 games we'll have done worse than our average over the season so far so 48 points is not certain to keep us up. If we can manage 12 points from our remaining 10 games then I'd fancy we survive.

[philipl]

Just now, blueboy3333 said:

They are the points totals for the team in 21st. They aren't the points totals needed to stay up.

For example, last season Rotherham stayed up on 49pts but they only actually needed 41 because Charlton, who finished 22nd, only got 40pts:-

21	Rotherham	46	13	10	23	53	71	-18	49
22	Charlton	46	9	13	24	40	80	-40	40
23	MK Dons	46	9	12	25	39	69	-30	39
24	Bolton	46	5	15	26	41	81	-40	30

Agree though that it might take over 50 points to survive.

 

If you were Charlton in 22nd last season, how many points did you need to survive by climbing to 21st and putting three clubs below you?

We are currently 22nd this season.

To survive we need to get enough points to push someone from 21st down into 22nd.

 

[bluefred]

Simple answer NO .

[blueboy3333]

Just now, philipl said:

If you were Charlton in 22nd last season, how many points did you need to survive by climbing to 21st and putting three clubs below you?

We are currently 22nd this season.

To survive we need to get enough points to push someone from 21st down into 22nd.

 

Understand your logic but it's irrelevant. 41pts kept you up last season. Not 50pts.