[Archived] Unsustainable Rovers

[JBiz]

8 minutes ago, Stuart said:

You "feel a lot better"? I certainly don't. High interest loans together with our existing debt suggest Venkys have completely turned off the taps. If they have then we will be in administration sooner rather than later. Sooner still if fans hold off buying a season ticket depending on which division we are in and then won't pay £349 if we are relegated.

We are about to find out just how many hardcore supporters we really have. If it's 8,000 then we will crawl on for another half season. To have any future hope we need to be attracting fans back. We will not get back to 15,000 fans unless there is something for those who have left to return to.

I'm sure you can grasp the concept of having different types of "fans". Perhaps like Parson, you would be happy in this fantastical, imaginary world where we have 4,000 hardcore fans behind the team "even if we are in League Two" because you only care about true fans. Personally I think the club needs the fair-weather fans as well.

Rollback to last summer, no season tickets on sale, no budget, no manager.

We then went on to sell the valuable players whilst hiring a joke manager.

Fast forward to now, no real assets left, on the brink of third tier football BUT we have some legitimate plans in place i.e the season tickets, lists for different outcomes and most importantly a proper manager.

Very real reasons to potentially see some light at the end of the tunnel. I am well aware of the potential threat to the clubs existence, but that's the result of previous decisions.

Nothing will change that unfortunately, and since I cannot have an impact on the overall ownership - what is the point of concentrating on actions that are a result of their woeful era? They are borrowing money to keep a business that's running cost above 100% of their turnover? Hardly a surprise is it.

The owners switched the taps off the minute they bought the club. They've always done the same, converting debt into shares - they've never put a substantial hand in pocket! They allowed the wolves through the front door, they are responsible but that doesn't mean everything is futile. If it does, I'd suggest a new interest.

It has nothing to do with grouping fans either, I cannot fathom this obsession you have with putting people into metaphorical boxes. Fair weather, hardcore, Rovers Fans etc... 

[MCMC1875]

Just now, J*B said:

I believe (although could be correct) it is just the season ticket sales which have been loaned against - not the walk ons. Kind of feel like its neither here nor there.

He's just comparing the cost of ST v match by match payment J*B

[RoverCanada]

27 minutes ago, Mike E said:

It's new to me and my dad, who have both decided not to renew on the back of it.

Had enough of being fiddled by the owners. We're not quite at NAPM stage yet (I am, but if it makes my dad happy I'm going with him) but we'll pick and choose games next season.

Thought I'd take a quick look back at our 'other loans' history.

Looking at the 2014 accounts, for 2013 and 2014 we had a £5M loan that was secured against our parachute payments and it was fully repaid in August 2014. That loan was at a 9% interest rate. In the 2015 accounts, the other loan drops to £4.5M, again secured against parachute payments and this time at a 9.5% interest rate. This was repaid in August 2015.

Looking back to 2013, the overdraft used to be 2.4%+LIBOR, now it's 2.65%+LIBOR. The overdraft really came into play in 2013, as it rose from £3.7M in 2012 to £13.7M in 2013. It's been fluctuating around that level since.

So the £1.8M loan at 8.6% isn't all that different from our parachute payment-backed loans (so the same mess we've always been). Doesn't strike me as all that extortionate either for a loan to a financially high-risk endeavour like football. The £431k loan at 14% that was paid off in July 2016 rings more alarm bells though.

It's a sad situation though. People are clamouring for the cuts to stop, but that would require either Venky's increasing its interest-free loan from £87M, which doesn't appear to be happening (and do we really want to be even more indebted to them?) or taking on these short-term loans which of course hurt the short-term finances themselves.

How we still have the 9th highest wage bill in the league strikes me as the most pertinent question when we should really be down to more like 15th-ish. Either we've still got a bunch of payoffs going on, Graham, Stokes and co. are still on absurd wages, or maybe some agents are playing games with the wage bill, or a combination of all three! Cheston took lots of s*** for announcing more cuts are coming but what other choice is there?

[Dunnfc]

Canada look at your liabilities for this season.

4.5 Million isn't paid of around 2.4 Million is still outstanding.

Look at your VLL accounts as that is where it funnels too.

2.5 Million football creditor too suggest that's the balance on FA loans too as the 2.44 Rhodes to Huddersfield monies has been paid and confirmed page before I think.

Overdraft exasperated, Barclays was 18 million on take over then payment to take down to around 5 million which at 10 million they pulled the plug as venkys broke the schedule of agreement with them for interim payments which is when SBOI stepped in.

[Stuart]

Just now, Jbizzle said:

Rollback to last summer, no season tickets on sale, no budget, no manager.

We then went on to sell the valuable players whilst hiring a joke manager.

Fast forward to now, no real assets left, on the brink of third tier football BUT we have some legitimate plans in place i.e the season tickets, lists for different outcomes and most importantly a proper manager.

Very real reasons to potentially see some light at the end of the tunnel. I am well aware of the potential threat to the clubs existence, but that's the result of previous decisions.

Nothing will change that unfortunately, and since I cannot have an impact on the overall ownership - what is the point of concentrating on actions that are a result of their woeful era? They are borrowing money to keep a business that's running cost above 100% of their turnover? Hardly a surprise is it.

The owners switched the taps off the minute they bought the club. They've always done the same, converting debt into shares - they've never put a substantial hand in pocket! They allowed the wolves through the front door, they are responsible but that doesn't mean everything is futile. If it does, I'd suggest a new interest.

It has nothing to do with grouping fans either, I cannot fathom this obsession you have with putting people into metaphorical boxes. Fair weather, hardcore, Rovers Fans etc... 

It's not an obsession, it's an observation.

A football club survives because of the hardcore. It thrives because it attracts fair weather fans, and it is maintained by generations of both following their predecessors.

This club is on its knees and the owners who put us there have no interest in helping us get back up off them. They will look down every now and again and expect our gratitude for keeping us alive.

At some point in the near future we have to go into administration. The alternative used to be that the delta between the fans pockets and the losses was Venkys. That has turned out to be a myth as they have simply laodednus with unsustainable debt. Given they now appear to be utilising high interest loans that suggests that previous loan sources (e.g. Bank of India) have been cut.

The accounts don't lie. We are in financial dire straits and they have painted a worse picture year on year - but for some reason some people seem to want to wipe memory and reload. I expect it's how some people avoid facing the inevitable but it's tough to stomach for somebody like you to say "that doesn't mean everything is futile" when that is precisely what you think that protesting against Venkys is.

However, because there are a lot of people like you (whatever box you would like me to put them in so that you can focus on trivialities rather than the important stuff) who will not turn minority protests into majority protests, that's exactly what the protesting has become though.

[tomphil]

If the FA are lending badly run clubs crisis loans at 9.5% it's no wonder they don't clamp down of dodgy unfit and unproper owners. It's a right earner the corrupt barestewrds !

[Mike E]

42 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Don't understand 'picking your games'.

With the massive difference between ST and match day prices, even If you go to just half of them you'll still be giving the club your ST money.

 

We'd be going to 5 games, about £200 between us instead of £600. Plus that's £100 not spent on the concourse. Knock another £50 off for my replica top.

So with just my dad and I, that's £550 we keep instead of spending on the club.

[RoverCanada]

3 minutes ago, Dunnfc said:

Canada look at your liabilities for this season.

4.5 Million isn't paid of around 2.4 Million is still outstanding.

Look at your VLL accounts as that is where it funnels too.

2.5 Million football creditor too suggest that's the balance on FA loans too as the 2.44 Rhodes to Huddersfield monies has been paid and confirmed page before I think.

Overdraft exasperated, Barclays was 18 million on take over then payment to take down to around 5 million which at 10 million they pulled the plug as venkys broke the schedule of agreement with them for interim payments which is when SBOI stepped in.

Sorry I'm not quite following. VLL accounts say £5M was paid in other loans in 2015, and this was down to £2.8M in 2016. Latest Rovers accounts have the £4.5M from 2015, but the 2015 accounts say this was paid in August 2015. Are you saying that was just added to the VLL debts (as part of the £7M share issue maybe?). What was the VLL £5M 'other loans' repayment for then?

The other loans for 2016 are listed as £2,131,191, which consists of the £431,191 that was repaid in July 2016 and the £1.8M that was due to be repaid by today. Sorry if I'm just being daft, but what's not adding up there? Where are you getting the £2.4M figure from?

Otherwise the overdraft increased by about £1.3M. What's owed to creditors dropped from £117M to £112m, at least going by the Rovers accounts.

Who knows what kind of loans they had to take on this year and at what rates. I also admittedly don't know the exact implications of the bank overdraft going forward.

(sorry to bog things down with boring accounting questions! Clarifications appreciated)

The new loans may not be anything too drastic given the transfer outgoings and cuts supposedly still ongoing, but hence why I'm wondering how long it'll take to get this club into a reasonably sustainable shape, i.e. say £3M-£5M losses a year like any other Championship club given we still apparently have the league's 9th highest wage bill, which is ridiculous (hence why I'm wondering what is still in that wage bill exactly)

[tomphil]

14 minutes ago, RoverCanada said:

Thought I'd take a quick look back at our 'other loans' history.

Looking at the 2014 accounts, for 2013 and 2014 we had a £5M loan that was secured against our parachute payments and it was fully repaid in August 2014. That loan was at a 9% interest rate. In the 2015 accounts, the other loan drops to £4.5M, again secured against parachute payments and this time at a 9.5% interest rate. This was repaid in August 2015.

Looking back to 2013, the overdraft used to be 2.4%+LIBOR, now it's 2.65%+LIBOR. The overdraft really came into play in 2013, as it rose from £3.7M in 2012 to £13.7M in 2013. It's been fluctuating around that level since.

So the £1.8M loan at 8.6% isn't all that different from our parachute payment-backed loans (so the same mess we've always been). Doesn't strike me as all that extortionate either for a loan to a financially high-risk endeavour like football. The £431k loan at 14% that was paid off in July 2016 rings more alarm bells though.

It's a sad situation though. People are clamouring for the cuts to stop, but that would require either Venky's increasing its interest-free loan from £87M, which doesn't appear to be happening (and do we really want to be even more indebted to them?) or taking on these short-term loans which of course hurt the short-term finances themselves.

 

How we still have the 9th highest wage bill in the league strikes me as the most pertinent question when we should really be down to more like 15th-ish. Either we've still got a bunch of payoffs going on, Graham, Stokes and co. are still on absurd wages, or maybe some agents are playing games with the wage bill, or a combination of all three! Cheston took lots of s*** for announcing more cuts are coming but what other choice is there?

Some money going through the pipes and straight out the other side for other investments or whatever would be my guess with non of it actually touching matters at the club. How many employees are on the books these days despite the cuts ?   Who are they all and what do they do for BRFC ?

[JBiz]

Stuart, it's all well and good focussing on what the owners have done or will do but neither of us have an option bar being involved or walking away. If you believe a total boycott will make them walk tomorrow, that's fair enough but I have my own views on that.

I can understand frustration at other fans for not joining in protests but I can also fully understand why there are those that will not join in with futile actions that have no impact at all, bar personal feelings.

I keep having things directed towards me that I know. I'm well aware of the clubs financial plight, its stark enough without buying into the daily smoke and mirror discussion. The point from this morning remains - what's different? The clubs borrowing money at different rates? That's enough to suggest that any positives are false,  such as better organisation or hiring an actual manager who brings results?

There is nothing trivial about sweeping different perspectives and backgrounds into groups with your own cute nicknames. It's just basically stereotyping folk and is as divisive as it gets.

 

[1arC]

I wonder why Bigdogsteel has stopped posting all of a sudden?

[Bigdoggsteel]

Just now, 1arC said:

I wonder why Bigdogsteel has stopped posting all of a sudden?

Sick of listening to posters like yourself. Some good posters here, but they are hounded by the empty vessels. 

Took a break from reading for a few days, came back and had a look today,  I have never seen so much childish bickering on a message board before. 

Going to leave my posts for match threads until the summer. 

[Mike E]

Maybe he's been given a posting restriction without an actual ban? I had that for a while under my original username years ago.

[Mike E]

Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

Sick of listening to posters like yourself. Some good posters here, but they are hounded by the empty vessels. 

Took a break from reading for a few days came back and had a look today, conspiracy and negativity levels went off the charts during the international break I see. 

Going to leave my posts for match threads until the summer. 

The 'conspiracy' is plainly written in the club's own accounts...

Also, those 'empty vessels' include Alan Myers, Henry Winter, David Conn, Michel Salgado, as well as at least 6 fans with vast experience in law or accountancy.

They've more credibility on here than someone who's been on here a few weeks with his fingers in his ears yelling "LALALALALALALALA".

[Bigdoggsteel]

Just now, Mike E said:

The 'conspiracy' is plainly written in the club's own accounts...

Also, those 'empty vessels' include Alan Myers, Henry Winter, David Conn, Michel Salgado, as well as at least 6 fans with vast experience in law or accountancy.

They've more credibility on here than someone who's been on here a few weeks with his fingers in his ears yelling "LALALALALALALALA".

Are you not meant to be a mod? It seems like you spend most of your time going around bickering with posters these days.

I edited my post before you responded. I wasn't actually referring to the issue that you have responded to. So, I think you need to go back to some other poster with that response  

[Stuart]

14 minutes ago, Jbizzle said:

Stuart, it's all well and good focussing on what the owners have done or will do but neither of us have an option bar being involved or walking away. If you believe a total boycott will make them walk tomorrow, that's fair enough but I have my own views on that.

I can understand frustration at other fans for not joining in protests but I can also fully understand why there are those that will not join in with futile actions that have no impact at all, bar personal feelings.

I keep having things directed towards me that I know. I'm well aware of the clubs financial plight, its stark enough without buying into the daily smoke and mirror discussion. The point from this morning remains - what's different? The clubs borrowing money at different rates? That's enough to suggest that any positives are false,  such as better organisation or hiring an actual manager who brings results?

There is nothing trivial about sweeping different perspectives and backgrounds into groups with your own cute nicknames. It's just basically stereotyping folk and is as divisive as it gets.

 

Firmly disagree with your last two paragraphs but we are never going to bridge those two different perspectives. I can't believe you can be so obtuse. You get upset more about me using the word obtuse than the reasons why.

I think, in the past, Venkys may have ridden out a total boycott. Now that all of the cash has dried up and sources of loans appear to be dry, I think that a total boycott would be catastrophic from a financial perspective. If Venkys are no longer able or willing to cover losses then then we are totally reliant on our meagre revenue. Season tickets, match day sales, corporate sales and merchandise. They are even starting a new 1875 club initiative. If these are all completely boycotted then there is no money.

Now the real question is what would that mean. Venkys sell? Or liquidation? If it's the latter then it would be what comes next, and whether a Phoenix club would be possible and at what level.

The trouble is Venkys strategy (or lack of one) is taking us closer and closer to that prospect.

What seems futile (and bloody awful) is the thought of 4000 fans trying to keep Venkys vision alive.

[JBiz]

Just now, Stuart said:

Firmly disagree with your last two paragraphs but we are never going to bridge those two different perspectives. I can't believe you can be so obtuse. You get upset more about me using the word obtuse than the reasons why.

I think, in the past, Venkys may have ridden out a total boycott. Now that all of the cash has dried up and sources of loans appear to be dry, I think that a total boycott would be catastrophic from a financial perspective. If Venkys are no longer able or willing to cover losses then then we are totally reliant on our meagre revenue. Season tickets, match day sales, corporate sales and merchandise. They are even starting a new 1875 club initiative. If these are all completely boycotted then there is no money.

Now the real question is what would that mean. Venkys sell? Or liquidation? If it's the latter then it would be what comes next, and whether a Phoenix club would be possible and at what level.

The trouble is Venkys strategy (or lack of one) is taking us closer and closer to that prospect.

What seems futile (and bloody awful) is the thought of 4000 fans trying to keep Venkys vision alive.

Its been the same on BRFCS for some time that we have differing ways of seeing something. 

So you agree that nothing's changed?  

What can be fruitless and often frustrating, I can at least thank you for offering a frank answer to question relating to boycotts/season ticket holders with a scenario that you see unfolding, but probably already previously thought would happen based on the direction this club has been taking for some time.

Whilst more credible, it's no more definite than a scenario where we stay up and take a giant leap forward at this point. Obtuse to you is a viewpoint that may involve something other than the absolute worse case scenario.

I personally don't believe in Venkys or bust. I don't want the ground, the academy, the legacy of Jack Walker to go for good because of an ideology amongst the remaining support that anything will do BUT Venkys.

I don't have an answer, and I certainly will not have an appetite for football as a sport if this club dies, never mind the will to form a new club.

 

[1arC]

42 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Sick of listening to posters like yourself. Some good posters here, but they are hounded by the empty vessels. 

Took a break from reading for a few days, came back and had a look today,  I have never seen so much childish bickering on a message board before. 

Going to leave my posts for match threads until the summer. 

Its a shame you are sick of listening to posters like myself, as most of my posts are received pretty well. I am pretty sure you are a plant and I would imagine that others are too. I know you haven't posted for a few days, but noticed you logged on. Where you just having a look at other things, seeing as you were sick of listening to posters like me?

[Stuart]

Just now, Jbizzle said:

Its been the same on BRFCS for some time that we have differing ways of seeing something. 

So you agree that nothing's changed?  

What can be fruitless and often frustrating, I can at least thank you for offering a frank answer to question relating to boycotts/season ticket holders with a scenario that you see unfolding, but probably already previously thought would happen based on the direction this club has been taking for some time.

Whilst more credible, it's no more definite than a scenario where we stay up and take a giant leap forward at this point. Obtuse to you is a viewpoint that may involve something other than the absolute worse case scenario.

I personally don't believe in Venkys or bust. I don't want the ground, the academy, the legacy of Jack Walker to go for good because of an ideology amongst the remaining support that anything will do BUT Venkys.

I don't have an answer, and I certainly will not have an appetite for football as a sport if this club dies, never mind the will to form a new club.

 

How can it be more credible but no more definite?

In absolute terms nothing is definite until it has happened but given the facts as laid out in our accounts and confirmed by the talking heads at the club our perilous position makes liquidation far more definite and outcome than recovery.

Surely we most both agree that given our debt position, our salvation lies in promotion to the PL whilst there is still money there? And our chances of promotion are minuscule, whereas - unless you believe in benevolent banks or have any reason to believe Venkys will change tack - our chances of having our debt crush is are far higher.

[JBiz]

Just now, Stuart said:

How can it be more credible but no more definite?

In absolute terms nothing is definite until it has happened but given the facts as laid out in our accounts and confirmed by the talking heads at the club our perilous position makes liquidation far more definite and outcome than recovery.

Surely we most both agree that given our debt position, our salvation lies in promotion to the PL whilst there is still money there? And our chances of promotion are minuscule, whereas - unless you believe in benevolent banks or have any reason to believe Venkys will change tack - our chances of having our debt crush is are far higher.

You answered your own question in the first sentence of the second paragraph. 

Whilst I'm opening myself up to being accused of being blissfully unaware, I don't need to cite past instances when miracles have happened, just like you don't need to reference Pompey, Darlington, Fleetwood, Coventry et al as differing examples of the other more likely outcome for us.

Ofcourse I'm aware that probably 95% of the damage has been done. The odds of redemption is not worth even an each way, but whilst a lot has gone wrong in the past 6 years(massive understatement), some more recent actions have potential to blossom into something more fruitful.

 

[Stuart]

Just now, Jbizzle said:

You answered your own question in the first sentence of the second paragraph. 

Whilst I'm opening myself up to being accused of being blissfully unaware, I don't need to cite past instances when miracles have happened, just like you don't need to reference Pompey, Darlington, Fleetwood, Coventry et al as differing examples of the other more likely outcome for us.

Ofcourse I'm aware that probably 95% of the damage has been done. The odds of redemption is not worth even an each way, but whilst a lot has gone wrong in the past 6 years(massive understatement), some more recent actions have potential to blossom into something more fruitful.

 

Interesting that you could quickly pick out four examples to support the more probably path we will follow but no examples of miracles. Do you have any examples?

[blueboy3333]

6 hours ago, 47er said:

All about provocation with you, no wonder so many people can't stand you. I'll leave you to it.

 Loads of people I've never met can't stand me 

 

[JBiz]

Just now, Stuart said:

Interesting that you could quickly pick out four examples to support the more probably path we will follow but no examples of miracles. Do you have any examples?

Well Burnley are the hardest one to swallow really, Dyche is a miracle. Can you believe some think he's done all he can?

Hughes was a miracle, the job he did. As for this league, massive debt, from bottom to top in a flash? Bar Leicester of recent times, I'd have to do some research to be honest Stuart but I was referring to miracles in football in general.

[blueboy3333]

6 hours ago, Oldgregg86 said:

Can I have a glass of what your having. You think going to league 1 and dessimating the squad will lead to a promotion your in for a shock. If we, by some form of a miracle do get promoted think 20000 + will return to ewood after a promotion from league 1 especially with venkys in charge your deluded. If you think 100 million plus of debt plus ever increasing interest adding to it will just " float away" because we have unloaded some nobody's and replaced with worse I'm lost for words. As far as who owns us. Never forgive, never forget

It's amazing 5 people 'liked' this considering I never mentioned League 1 

[Stuart]

Just now, Jbizzle said:

Well Burnley are the hardest one to swallow really, Dyche is a miracle. Can you believe some think he's done all he can?

Hughes was a miracle, the job he did. As for this league, massive debt, from bottom to top in a flash? Bar Leicester of recent times, I'd have to do some research to be honest Stuart but I was referring to miracles in football in general.

Hughes wasn't a miracle, he was the product of an established infrastructure at the club, doing things the right way. He had plenty of money and got some decent players on the cheap.

Leicester was certainly a miracle but again, they had plenty of cash, one of the richest clubs in the world due to the new Sky deal.

Burnley/Dyche is an interesting one. Sacked unfairly by Watford due to not being Italian (on the face of it). Burnley in the final year of their second lot of parachute payments, following their early luck of Coyle motivating Howe's cleverly constructed side. But again again, they had a board and owners who were determined to be successful and in the right way. It's a one-off though - almost as much of a Cinderella story as Leicester just not as fashionable. As sickening as it is it's hard not to have a lot of respect for what they've achieved as a club. Definitely lucked out with Dyche and one or two of the players he signed early on.