[Archived] Election called for 8th June

[Paul]

2 hours ago, blueboy3333 said:

Why? If someone wants to protect their anonymity that's up to them. There are many reasons for wanting to do that. If the site owners on here deem that someone is pursuing an obvious agenda, being abusive or threatening, or is breaking the law in some way then they can ban them. If the latter warrants it they can inform the police.

It could be said that using your real name is a bit 'look at me all over social media pontificating and airing my oh so important views, I'm all over facebook and twitter too, aren't I ace', But then I wouldn't be so ignorant as to assume such a thing

 

Just to answer this and hopefully not get in a prolonged discussion. Yes I do understand some will have valid reasons - I have a good friend who is CID and takes great care on FB and Instagram for example. Overall though I believe if you have something to say, and do not potentially put yourself at risk - my friend - one should be prepared to put one's name to comments. If anonymity is to allow one to post at work etc. that in itself is wrong.

I only use FB, never post to politically etc. a cycling forum, as FB and here.

As Glenn says using anonymity creates difficulties of maintaining that status. I've discovered who many people are on here through slips they have made. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I just like having non de plume. I go on an international engineering site. People contact me personally quite often regarding my area of engineering expertise. I always reply using my proper name . One or two people have contacted me on this site, the same applies.

[den]

So what are people's thoughts on any Tory majority. If she gets a landslide she will probably claim that she has the backing for any brexit that she wishes, even one where we leave with no deal. What about if she gets a similar majority to what she has now, or even a reduced majority - what exactly will that mean? Would she be under pressure to step down and if so, what kind of mandate would a new Tory PM have?

dont these questions highlight the absurdity of this election? What do people think?

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Just now, den said:

So what are people's thoughts on any Tory majority. If she gets a landslide she will probably claim that she has the backing for any brexit that she wishes, even one where we leave with no deal. What about if she gets a similar majority to what she has now, or even a reduced majority - what exactly will that mean? Would she be under pressure to step down and if so, what kind of mandate would a new Tory PM have?

dont these questions highlight the absurdity of this election? What do people think?

The Tory grandees will have been shaken by May's poor performance in the election campaign. Her reputation for being  " a safe pair of hands " is shot to pieces. Under real pressure for the first time she lost the plot for large chunks of hustings. If she gets a similar majority to the one she had previously she'll be moved on at the first sign of trouble in the Brexit negotiations.

She will need a massive majority ( 100 ish ) to be safe and that will only be for the medium term future if things go as badly as people are predicting. The economy was hardly ever mentioned in the campaign but I think we're heading for another stumble, that's before you factor Brexit into the equation.

[Batman.]

Just now, den said:

So what are people's thoughts on any Tory majority. If she gets a landslide she will probably claim that she has the backing for any brexit that she wishes, even one where we leave with no deal. What about if she gets a similar majority to what she has now, or even a reduced majority - what exactly will that mean? Would she be under pressure to step down and if so, what kind of mandate would a new Tory PM have?

dont these questions highlight the absurdity of this election? What do people think?

In 24 hours you'll see it first hand..

"Mrs May, you've won with a reduced majority to that of Mr Cameron despite starting the campaign with a seismic gap between you and Labour in the polls, does that make your position untenable?"

-"The British people have voted for a strong and stable government to get the best Brexit, and be tough on terrorism, and that's what they'll get."

"But Mrs May, that was the question.."

-"But the real question here is "what have the British people voted for?" The British people have voted for a strong and stable government to get the best Brexit, and be tough on terrorism, and that's what they'll get."

As I've said before, "slogan politics, for idiots."

[Glenn]

Yep, I predict that even WITH a solid majority, her own party will oust her as leader before Winter. She has been shown to be a liability to the point of farce.

[BaldEagle]

14 hours ago, Baz said:

You appear oddly obsessed for someone who has been a member on here for less than a week, and made 10 posts in total. I'm guessing your a banned member who has re-registered and with an axe to grind?

Any thoughts on the Election?

I suppose I should be flattered that you seem to follow my activities so closely.

I'm not a banned member, nor have I ever been.

Rather than making baseless assertions and ad hominem attacks why don't you state which part of my post you disagree with?

[JBiz]

Just now, BaldEagle said:

I suppose I should be flattered that you seem to follow my activities so closely.

I'm not a banned member, nor have I ever been.

Rather than making baseless assertions and ad hominem attacks why don't you state which part of my post you disagree with?

So, any input on the election or is this account solely for causing arguments? 

[BaldEagle]

Just now, Biz said:

So, any input on the election or is this account solely for causing arguments? 

Tory majority of between 50 - 80 seats. TM's authority much reduced after a lame duck campaign.

JC to entrench his authority in the LP at large after a rousing campaign, but the PLP and its Momentum base, to drift even further apart.

LibDems: no change or worse after being squeezed by the Greens and other fringe parties of the left.

Labour to become the third party in Scotland as the Scottish Tories make slight in roads in to the SNP's still huge majority.

Unionists to make up ground in Northern Ireland as the Nationalist vote splits.

As you were really.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I would have thought one down side for the Tories of Saint Teresa calling this unnecessary election is that barring an event of cataclysmic proportions this next Parliament will have to run the full five years. The Tories will be left with very little room for manoeuvre.

[JBiz]

1 hour ago, BaldEagle said:

Tory majority of between 50 - 80 seats. TM's authority much reduced after a lame duck campaign.

JC to entrench his authority in the LP at large after a rousing campaign, but the PLP and its Momentum base, to drift even further apart.

LibDems: no change or worse after being squeezed by the Greens and other fringe parties of the left.

Labour to become the third party in Scotland as the Scottish Tories make slight in roads in to the SNP's still huge majority.

Unionists to make up ground in Northern Ireland as the Nationalist vote splits.

As you were really.

Thanks for this input. Sure as hell beats reading complaints, and I apologise for you got the sharp end, because lots of posters have been turning this and the Manchester Bombing threads into out and out racial hatred and intolerance, hence why the "tap on the head" comment was relatively mild compared to most.

I think I agree with your predictions TBH. I think May will fall on her sword though. I don't think I've ever seen a politician fall from grace so quickly without being embroiled in some sort of scandal(running through fields of wheat etc...)

I can't see the conservatives taking much of Scotland to be honest, whilst it may be predicted I just can't see many jocks voting for TM and her hard brexit.

I do think that lib dems could be wiped out but my democrat friend (a rare breed in the NW) has explained they could take a few marginal seats back, especially after the damage in 2015  with many being over the Clegg debacle.

 

[Jimbo]

On 6/5/2017 at 23:48, den said:

I can't see the conservatives taking much of Scotland to be honest, whilst it may be predicted I just can't see many jocks voting for TM and her hard brexit.

 

I'm not too sure about that, I'm guessing that the rabid NATs in Scotland also hate Brussels just as much, which will leave them spinning in circles trying to decide between who to hate most, the English or Brussels, and could result in a movement of votes away from the SNP and towards the Conservatives. I could also be really wrong though

[jim mk2]

Unlike Labour, the Tories understand power. If May doesn't get a 50-100 majority she will be perceived to have failed and more than likely be ousted so a  better leader will be in place with a view to winning the 2022 election.

A better than expected Labour showing will encourage Corbyn to stay on but looking ahead 5 years the party will clearly need a new direction under a younger, more progressive leader.

I wish Labour would show more ruthlessness with its leaders. I'm not interested in supporting a protest party; I want that party to be in govt to make radical changes the country desperately needs.

 

[Gav]

Hung parliament is the best the anti-Tories can hope for and maybe just maybe it's going to happen, some polls suggest it's much closer than most think. 

Anything but 5 more years of Tory rule will do me.

[only2garners]

The key is how many under 35s turn out to vote. Two of the polling companies, Survation and YouGov have assumed that turnout amongst this group will be as great as older groups and they have been the ones producing the closer polls which if correct might well create a hung parliament. the other polling companies have assumed that turnout amongst younger voters will be a lot less than older voters i.e. like recent previous elections. They have produced polls giving a large Tory lead.

My best guess is that there will be more turnout of younger voters but not enough to make a real difference. My best guess is a Tory majority of 50-60 seats. A very workable majority but May's days numbered as PM.

[perthblue02]

1 hour ago, Biz said:

Thanks for this input. Sure as hell beats reading complaints, and I apologise for you got the sharp end, because lots of posters have been turning this and the Manchester Bombing threads into out and out racial hatred and intolerance, hence why the "tap on the head" comment was relatively mild compared to most.

 

Personally thought the majority of the conversation was regarding those of the extremist end of a religion which contains people of all races. . Questioning a religion or religious ideology is not racist

Needlessly playing the R card dilutes it's effectiveness for when it is needed

[JBiz]

Just now, perthblue02 said:

Personally thought the majority of the conversation was regarding those of the extremist end of a religion which contains people of all races. . Questioning a religion or religious ideology is not racist

Needlessly playing the R card dilutes it's effectiveness for when it is needed

Honest question; What does semantics have to do with it? Intolerance/Racism/Hatred/Xenophobia - why make it about the word, not the question? 

Playing the R card, as if it's some sort of game. You know, there is a difference between racist and making a racist post! Thankfully, they're hidden.

Also - if you wish to reply, why not PM? I'm sure we don't need to divert the thread again.

[matt83]

Obviously anyone from any walk of life can vote any party but generally the middle/upper class who are centre right vote Tory, working class left wing vote Corbyn's Labour, right wing vote BNP, environmentals vote green, middle/upper class left wing and non of the above vote Lib Dems. But there doesn't currently seem to be any options for working class right wing which I suspect makes up a decent percent.

I reckon that's why Tony Blair did so well he took the centre ground away from the Tory middle voters and not left enough to put off working class right wing blokes. 

[perthblue02]

No, I will keep it public and short, thanks, Intolerance could have summed it up to some extent . If you thought some posts were racist then that is your opinion, I have mine, hence I challenged your use of it.

Will not derail the thread again with it. Happy to take it to PM now.

[Baz]

Just now, perthblue02 said:

No, I will keep it public and short, thanks, Intolerance could have summed it up to some extent . If you thought some posts were racist then that is your opinion, I have mine, hence I challenged your use of it.

Will not derail the thread again with it. Happy to take it to PM now.

Some that definitely where have been hidden. I don't think they where on view for very long.

[Baz]

4 hours ago, BaldEagle said:

I suppose I should be flattered that you seem to follow my activities so closely.

I'm not a banned member, nor have I ever been.

Rather than making baseless assertions and ad hominem attacks why don't you state which part of my post you disagree with?

Attacks? I was just curious. You need to be a little less precious.

 

 

[Paul]

I know I'm being hopelessly optimistic but I'm feeling very excited, it's going to be a long night.

[Dreyski]

At least until the 10 o'clock bongs go and we see a picture of disMay on our screens...

[BaldEagle]

2 hours ago, jim mk2 said:

Unlike Labour, the Tories understand power. If May doesn't get a 50-100 majority she will be perceived to have failed and more than likely be ousted so a  better leader will be in place with a view to winning the 2022 election.

A better than expected Labour showing will encourage Corbyn to stay on but looking ahead 5 years the party will clearly need a new direction under a younger, more progressive leader.

I wish Labour would show more ruthlessness with its leaders. I'm not interested in supporting a protest party; I want that party to be in govt to make radical changes the country desperately needs.

 

She won't be challenged until after the negotiations with Brussels is complete. Can't see any of the pretenders wanting to be identified with a deal which either the grassroots, or the rest of the country is not happy with. Besides, and maybe I'm underestimating her managerial skills, even if she gets a good deal, the negotiations are likely to be so exhausting and time-consuming; the incumbent will likely be worn down by the end of them.

Corbyn will stay on whatever. He's had a an average campaign, but much better than his critics expected. Corbyn is not interested in winning power - on his own account at least. His aim is to wrestle control of the levers of power within the party from the moderate majority within the PLP who are still tainted, in his eyes, by association with the Blair years. His successor is probably being groomed already, but Corbyn will not step aside until he's sure it's a successor made in his own image.

Labour will never form a majority in England until they find someone to don the mantle of Blair. The upcoming boundary changes will all but ensure that for a generation. Labour's only hope of forming a majority going forward is to build an informal alliance with the SNP and some of the other nationalist parties from the 'Celtic fringes'. Voters in the English marginal constituencies are highly unlikely to allow that to happen.

[Mike E]

I actually wonder if Keir Starmer would be willing to step up into Labour leadership. The more I read about and listen to him, the more I like him.