[Archived] Election called for 8th June

[perthblue02]

33 minutes ago, Gav said:

Strong Labour seat, just as all working class towns up and down the country should be.

Sadly we have far to many people with illusions of grandeur thinking they're better than they are and voting Tory after a couple of visits to Northcote and curry in the Ribble Valley.

Really? there is a very strong view that Labour abandoned the traditional working class years ago , chasing both the minority.(sorry somebody had to say it) and traditional middle class vote.. The traditional working class got wise to it during Blairs time hence they turned away and once the middle class labour love in hit the rocks during the 00's they jumped ship as well.

Interesting that the question has been posed earlier in the thread ,why would anybody born in the North vote Tory, maybe it should be why would anybody born in the traditional Labour heartlands chose not to vote Labour if they have done such a fantastic job for the traditional working class. Unfortunately the London Labour clique  live in their fantasy world so they will never grasp the reasons why.

 

 

[onlyonetugay]

4 minutes ago, Gav said:

Strong Labour seat, just as all working class towns up and down the country should be.

Sadly we have far to many people with illusions of grandeur thinking they're better than they are and voting Tory after a couple of visits to Northcote and curry in the Ribble Valley.

So before you go to Northcote ( for a second time ?) you're a Labour voter and  when you get home you're a Conservative ?. If that's the case I'm surprised Nigel Howarth  hasn't got a peerage ! 

[perthblue02]

Just now, onlyonetugay said:

So before you go to Northcote ( for a second time ?) you're a Labour voter and  when you get home you're a Conservative ?. If that's the case I'm surprised Nigel Howarth  hasn't got a peerage ! 

He could not afford one now that Blair is not providing the donation for peerage service

[den]

2 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

 

 

How many people votes in total and the majority voted for out? Is this correct?

If people didnt vote well they should have done

 

Chaddy, you're trying to be cocky.

last time...... you said over half of the country voted for Brexit. No matter how you try to wriggle, you're wrong.

and if you want to get your teeth further into it, this article from a member of the LSE argues brexit is not the will of the British people and never was.

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/24/brexit-is-not-the-will-of-the-british-people-it-never-has-been/

[philipl]

This is a totally weird election.

My gut feel is the result will see a small increase in the Tory majority to about 30 but with a lot of chopping and changing of seats.

I will just throw some facts out:

The current 21% Tory lead produces a Tory majority of 122 if the country swings uniformally.

This is less than the Thatcher majority because the SNP has a lock on Scotland- if the SNP poll slightly less well than in 2015, the Lib Dems, Tories and Labour stand to gain roughly equally- Lib Dems because some of the 10 SNP gains from the Lib Dems are super marginal, Tories because they are now running the SNP second in Scotland and Labour because they picked up three seats in the last MSP elections.

BUT 

If the Conservative/ Lib Dem swing which won the Richmond by-election is repeated nationally, the Lib Dems pick up 120 seats from the Tories.

We do know May was against holding the election now because 30 Conservative MPs in seats they won from the Lib Dems in 2015 were certain losers according to leaked private Conservative Party polling. That probably looks like a safeish bet for at least 20 of those seats to go back to Lib Dem.

Let's look at Conservative/Labour. Labour are ALREADY close to historic lows so the cupboard is relatively bare for easy Tory wins- remember Ed Balls lost his seat last time.

A 12% Tory lead yields (in theory) 58 gains from Labour

BUT 

That number includes 12 seats which have never been Conservative for over 100 years. Even in the time of Corbyn, are both Stoke-on-Trent seats going Tory?

And this includes Tory gains in London where Labour hasn't collapsed so perhaps some "easy" pick ups in the capital won't be turning blue.

 

Here are some wild cards to consider:

- Corbyn won the Labour leadership because he is a good public speaker, comes over as affably honest and mobilises the base. Let's suppose he somehow manages that trick in this General Election and he winds up the Labour support quite rightly over austerity. public service cuts, NHS threats, rich fat cats etc. Suddenly the Tories might not be sitting on that much of a lead.

- the UKIP vote is up for grabs. The Tories have taken their UKIP defectors but if the Labour UKIP defectors go home, the expected Tory pick up in the Labour heart lands of the Midlands and North might not happen. On the other hand: 

- Labour were wiped out in Scotland in 2015, it is possible that Labour MPs outside the major cities of England are wiped out in 2017. Hyndburn going Tory?- that's one of the first 40 gains the Tories would make on a 10% swing.

- The Lib Dems have picked up three council seats from Labour in places like Sunderland on 40%+ swings this year. The Labour vote is soft.

 

And of course events:

- it looks like Manchester Gorton by-election will go ahead in two weeks time. Lib Dems to gain from Labour there is a distinct possibility and that would change the dynamic of the general election campaign

- there are also the local elections in early May which by all accounts look good for the Tories, great for the Lib Dems and catastrophic for Labour

- but a remaining/soft Brexit bandwagon won't get going if this Saturday's French election produces a run off between Melenchon and Le Pen, both of whom would kill the EU...

- then there are 30 Conservative MPs who could be arrested for electoral fraud from the 2015 Election during the campaign

- and given the speed of events in the USA, if the FBI start pulling in Trump associates for treason, someone is going to ask the obvious question.. the masterminds of the Trump connection to Russia are all British, what did they do to the Brexit referendum?

- and what are the Russians doing to our General Election

 

And finally, might it be that rich toff Cameron didn't stick in the craw in the way prissy Head Girl, Vicar's daughter, ever so Home Counties hectoring Theresa May really pisses people off?       

Nobody loves her and quite a few natural Tories really hate her.

 

[only2garners]

57 minutes ago, Gav said:

Strong Labour seat, just as all working class towns up and down the country should be.

Sadly we have far to many people with illusions of grandeur thinking they're better than they are and voting Tory after a couple of visits to Northcote and curry in the Ribble Valley.

Doesn't seem to be working with me Gav. I've been going to Northcote once or twice a year for the last 10 at least and I still can't bring myself to vote Tory. I was at the Chef's Table 10 days ago for my son's wedding and I don't think any of the 10 of us will be either. Mind you, 6 of them were from that there London......

[JohnD]

2 hours ago, Gav said:

You quite simply have no idea what you're talking about John, with respect.

 

 

No offence taken, we just disagree.

My experience comes from 44 years as a nurse

[otto man]

49 minutes ago, den said:

Chaddy, you're trying to be cocky.

last time...... you said over half of the country voted for Brexit. No matter how you try to wriggle, you're wrong.

and if you want to get your teeth further into it, this article from a member of the LSE argues brexit is not the will of the British people and never was.

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/24/brexit-is-not-the-will-of-the-british-people-it-never-has-been/

And yet they voted to leave.  Hypothesise  till the cows come home, it won't change the fact we're leaving, whether you like it or not!

[jim mk2]

6 hours ago, onlyonetugay said:

 

Latest figures show nearly 1m workers on zero hours contracts. That's 1m people working for bosses who treat workers like disposable labour. If you’re on a zero-hours contract you have no guarantee of work from one day to another. Put a foot wrong and you can be let go in a heartbeat. Turn down a shift because your kid’s sick and you can be left with little or no work

Yet evil creatures like Ian Drunken Smith continue to defend zero hours contracts, while Theresa May laughably tries to portray the Tories as the "workers party". Well, if you believe that, you're even more naive and deluded then you already appear.

[jim mk2]

2 hours ago, Gav said:

Strong Labour seat, just as all working class towns up and down the country should be.

Sadly we have far to many people with illusions of grandeur thinking they're better than they are and voting Tory after a couple of visits to Northcote and curry in the Ribble Valley.

[chaddyrovers]

1 hour ago, den said:

Chaddy, you're trying to be cocky.

last time...... you said over half of the country voted for Brexit. No matter how you try to wriggle, you're wrong.

and if you want to get your teeth further into it, this article from a member of the LSE argues brexit is not the will of the British people and never was.

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/24/brexit-is-not-the-will-of-the-british-people-it-never-has-been/

Like I said before over half of the people that voted, voted to leave. Its aint my fault that 12.9 million didnt vote. Maybe they should. 

You can try to spin it anyway you want but 52% of those that voted, voted to leave like I said previously..time to get over it and face the fact that we are leaving the EU. 

[chaddyrovers]

3 hours ago, dulwich said:

For a nurse???

How much do you want to pay them? 

 

[broadsword]

28 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Like I said before over half of the people that voted, voted to leave. Its aint my fault that 12.9 million didnt vote. Maybe they should. 

You can try to spin it anyway you want 

NO, that wasn't what you said before. You are wriggling on the hook, sir. 

The majority of the votes cast, and the majority of the country... Not necessarily the same thing. It is you who are spinning

[dulwich]

27 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

How much do you want to pay them? 

 

More, how much would you pay them???

[chaddyrovers]

Just now, dulwich said:

More, how much would you pay them???

I think 24k a year is enough tbh. Depending on the hours and shift worked. Be talking to a family member today who spoke to a nurse who was earning 28k and she said it was pitance she was on. She worked 4 on 4 off 12 shift pattern. Thats work out at 12.82 pounds a hour. 

 

[jim mk2]

Brilliant speech by Jeremy Corbyn today, a superb call for a more equal society and rail against a "rigged system" in which the elites benefit at the expense of the majority.

Brexiteers wanted out of the EU because their opposition to the supposed "elites" in Brussels. Voting for the elites in Britain in the form of the Conservative party would be the height of hypocrisy. 

 

 

[broadsword]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/eu-toughens-brexit-stance-and-demands-uk-pay-liabilities-in-euros

 

Losing the EMA would be a big kiss for the UK economy. The EU is really going to nail our nuts to the wall

[Gav]

2 hours ago, JohnD said:

No offence taken, we just disagree.

My experience comes from 44 years as a nurse

Well I never put you at retirement age JohnD......What band are you if you don't mind me asking?

But regardless of that, if you think staff on the ground in the NHS are paid well you need a reality check.

Healthcare assistants and trainee paramedics on 14k a year, I pay data input staff more than that.

 

 

 

[chaddyrovers]

Just now, Gav said:

Well I never put you at retirement age JohnD......What band are you?

But regardless of that, if you think staff on the ground in the NHS are paid well you need a reality check.

Healthcare assistants and trainee paramedics on 14k a year, I pay data input staff more than that.

 

 

 

Do you not think 24-28k per year is enough? Some senior nurse are on that. 

I think nurses and nurse assistants who work on the A and E departments should be on more pay cos they on the front line. 

 

[Mike E]

6 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

Brilliant speech by Jeremy Corbyn today, a superb call for a more equal society and rail against a "rigged system" in which the elites benefit at the expense of the majority.

Brexiteers wanted out of the EU because their opposition to the supposed "elites" in Brussels. Voting for the elites in Britain in the form of the Conservative party would be the height of hypocrisy. 

While I sort of agree re: hypocrisy, it's the slightly different. The country voted under FTTP for a Tory government. The EU has a vast number of people governing OUR governance, that nobody ever voted for.

[jim mk2]

Yep, so why would you vote for elites if you don't like them ? 

[perthblue02]

20 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

Brilliant speech by Jeremy Corbyn today, a superb call for a more equal society and rail against a "rigged system" in which the elites benefit at the expense of the majority.

Brexiteers wanted out of the EU because their opposition to the supposed "elites" in Brussels. Voting for the elites in Britain in the form of the Conservative party would be the height of hypocrisy. 

 

 

Any link to the full speech (video) ?

All i can find is 50 odd seconds on the mirror website

[JBiz]

Just now, chaddyrovers said:

I think nurses and nurse assistants who work on the A and E departments should be on more pay cos they on the front line. 

Then vote for a manifesto that wants to bring more nurses into work, make the training free again and improve working conditions! Not a profit run NHS, the first thing they'll save on is the cost of expertise! If you read a bit about the strike, many don't leave for an extra 2k a year, it's the nature of being overworked. 

Equally, they've essentially had a wage cut for the 7 years, all wage increase below inflation! 

[perthblue02]

Brilliant and we are off

First ooops of the campaign (seems rigged / rig are the new buzzwords)

Dawn Butler (Labour) highlights Costa Coffee for tax avoidance in a BBC radio interview also struggling to explain how May is trying to rig democracy and the election. Apparently one of the bright new stars in the Labour party, not convinced myself

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39659304?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Full interview starts at 9 minutes http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08m8z3b#play

 

Costa Coffee has benefited from the Starbucks boycott. As newspapers have noted, in a single year its parent company Whitbread pays twice the amount of UK tax that Starbucks managed in the fourteen years before its ‘voluntary donation’. It receives our best rating for likely use of tax avoidance strategies.

http://www.ethicalconsumer.org/buyersguides/drink/coffeeshops.aspx

No doubt there will be a few more from all parties in the coming weeks

[JohnD]

53 minutes ago, Gav said:

Well I never put you at retirement age JohnD......What band are you if you don't mind me asking?

But regardless of that, if you think staff on the ground in the NHS are paid well you need a reality check.

Healthcare assistants and trainee paramedics on 14k a year, I pay data input staff more than that.

 

 

 

Well I am at retirement age and my very close friend of 44 years has just retired from a career nursing

I'm not suggesting that all NHS staff are well paid but neither are the nurses underpaid "angels". There are good and bad as in every other walk of life.

The waste in the NHS defies belief as does the management. The staff deserve much better. Money and privatisation aren't the answer but modernisation is. There's only one place you will find bed sores in first world medical care and that is in the NHS. Completely avoidable and entrely because of poor nursing.

Modern processes will cure the NHS not sentiment.