[Archived] The math's behind survival

[bazza]

On 26/04/2017 at 9:01 PM, bazza said:

Will we go for the win against Villa? I doubt it.

Too many rubber dingy men in the squad.

I was wrong. We did it. We need heroes at Griffin Park next Sunday.

[Butty]

I can't see Ipswich causing Forest any problems whatsoever. We HAVE to go for it at Brentford from the off and just concentrate on our own game not how anyone else is doing. There's still hope for the Great Escape yet lads. The bigger picture is though although I'd be delighted to stay up it would only be delaying the final destruction of our club for a bit longer! 

[47er]

4 hours ago, Stuart said:

If ROVERS WIN (51 pts):

Birmingham must only draw (51 pts, -7 GD worse off) or lose (50 pts).

 

Forest must lose (48 pts) - a draw sees Rovers relegated by -1 GD.

That'll be the one then.

[martonrover]

Bristol City our best hope, in my opinion, (irony considering they have been a rival this season).

Let's hope they don't make ten changes 

[north_ender]

I think you have the toughest fixture as Brentford are a high-scoring and quality outfit at home but anything can happen on this type of day.

Goodness knows how Forest are down there with the quality they have in their squad.

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

As predicted down to the last game...what a Saturday it's going to be.

Prozac to sell out in Blackburn come Wednesday!!

[philipl]

The realistic hope for next Sunday is we scab a win and Brum only draw (or lose) at Bristol City.

No way are we going to reverse a two goal adverse goal difference in a shoot out between us away at Brentford and Forest away at Ipswich.

[punerover]

17 minutes ago, philipl said:

The realistic hope for next Sunday is we scab a win and Brum only draw (or lose) at Bristol City.

No way are we going to reverse a two goal adverse goal difference in a shoot out between us away at Brentford and Forest away at Ipswich.

What happens if we lose 1-0 and Forest lose 2-0?

[Stuart]

10 minutes ago, punerover said:

What happens if we lose 1-0 and Forest lose 2-0?

Then we'll have equal GD but Forest have more goals scored. They are about 6 ahead.

[martonrover]

57 minutes ago, philipl said:

The realistic hope for next Sunday is we scab a win and Brum only draw (or lose) at Bristol City.

No way are we going to reverse a two goal adverse goal difference in a shoot out between us away at Brentford and Forest away at Ipswich.

Agreed, that is our best hope, (& Forest are at home).

[Blue blood]

Think Forest will bottle it. They've botched a lot of winnable games recently including us and QPR. I really think we can better their result. Ipswich aren't great but (I think/could be wrong) they generally don't let in that many goals. The worry is TM has had us nicking wins whereas we really need to score a few this time round to be sure of being safe. It's an interesting need to change tactics which could hamper us but there are goals in the side.

[Kamy100]

In the last month Brentford have played QPR, Derby, Leeds and Bristol. Won all four matches scoring 11 goals and conceding just 1. 

It is a tough ask for us given that Brentford will be free of any pressure and will want to sign off a god season for them with a win.

However, under Coyle we would have been relegated weeks ago so it is a minor miracle that we have managed to get this to the last day. It would be heartbreaking if somehow manage to win next week and end up going down on goal difference or goals scored.

[AllRoverAsia]

Just now, Kamy100 said:

In the last month Brentford have played QPR, Derby, Leeds and Bristol. Won all four matches scoring 11 goals and conceding just 1. 

It is a tough ask for us given that Brentford will be free of any pressure and will want to sign off a god season for them with a win.

However, under Coyle we would have been relegated weeks ago so it is a minor miracle that we have managed to get this to the last day. It would be heartbreaking if somehow manage to win next week and end up going down on goal difference or goals scored.

Under TM our GD is currently -1

It may be Coyles negative GD that finally nails us.

[Earlydoors]

Would anyone take a draw at Brentford? 

It would be enough if Forest crumble under the pressure. 

I can see it happening.....

[lraC]

6 minutes ago, Earlydoors said:

Would anyone take a draw at Brentford? 

It would be enough if Forest crumble under the pressure. 

I can see it happening.....

If I knew Forest would lose, then yes I would take a draw. I think we will need to win it though, which will be tough. That said, Brentford are currently 8/5 to beat us, whoch seems good odds given their recent results.

[lraC]

10 hours ago, SIMON GARNERS 194 said:

As predicted down to the last game...what a Saturday it's going to be.

Prozac to sell out in Blackburn come Wednesday!!

Games are being played on Sunday.

[lraC]

2 hours ago, Kamy100 said:

In the last month Brentford have played QPR, Derby, Leeds and Bristol. Won all four matches scoring 11 goals and conceding just 1. 

It is a tough ask for us given that Brentford will be free of any pressure and will want to sign off a god season for them with a win.

However, under Coyle we would have been relegated weeks ago so it is a minor miracle that we have managed to get this to the last day. It would be heartbreaking if somehow manage to win next week and end up going down on goal difference or goals scored.

If we go down on goals scored, can we not claim the 3 Shane Duffy goals as ours and stay up by default?

[Athlete]

5 hours ago, Kamy100 said:

In the last month Brentford have played QPR, Derby, Leeds and Bristol. Won all four matches scoring 11 goals and conceding just 1. 

It is a tough ask for us given that Brentford will be free of any pressure and will want to sign off a god season for them with a win.

However, under Coyle we would have been relegated weeks ago so it is a minor miracle that we have managed to get this to the last day. It would be heartbreaking if somehow manage to win next week and end up going down on goal difference or goals scored.

It's not Coyle or Mowbray it's venkys fault we're in this situation 

[J*B]

Here's the maths simplified. 

 

Blackburn Rovers Football Club + Venkys = no long term future x continuous downgrading. 

When we go down, it'll be the academy next.