[Archived] Bayes, Seneca and Nixon interview

[Earlydoors]

If we owe £100m then that must cost £5m per year in interest to service that debt.

 

Even at £1 sale that values the club at £100m 

Nobody is going to touch that unless a deal can be struck with creditors via administration 

 

Will probably end in a pre-pack with the Raos still in charge......

[JHRover]

There'll be an additional black hole of between 5-10 million on top of what we were due to lose as a Championship club next season. A massive reduction in payments from the Premier League accounts for the bulk of that, but also likely to be a decline in season ticket sales, merchandise, sponsorship and obviously the big away day bonanzas that the club has tried to exploit so often these last few years - no more PNE, Burnley, Leeds, Wednesday, Villa or Newcastle bringing 5-7 thousand down at £30 a time. It'll be 300 tops from Southend and Northampton with only Bradford getting close to a big away following.

I doubt very much they've had the chance to assess the ramifications of relegation, though surely plans have been put in place already? Senior suggested he was brought into the place in January because of concern among the owners about our league position. His comments in the fans meeting back that up. So clearly someone in the hierarchy understands what we're facing and was looking to take action to avoid it. There really shouldn't be anything to think about as this has been on the horizon for months and they should have all the numbers to hand already.

Yes there's an obsession with Portsmouth which is created by the media. I don't know why because Southampton are the bigger and more recently successful club on the South Coast yet they get a fraction of the positive spin Pompey get. I think it all comes from the carnival atmosphere they created in their ramshackle ground whilst in the Premier League which was so different to everything else in there. Palace are getting something similar now.

For some reason the naysayers are already congregating trying to diminish our status as a club and make out as though we won't be a big fish next season. They'll be doing the same if we end up in the Conference and will find reasons to argue that the likes of Aldershot are bigger than Rovers. Its quite a bizarre attitude which has been entrenched in quite of lot of naysayers minds for a long time, even when we were challenging at the top of the Premier League. I've never fully understood it, seems quite bizarre to me why there is such eagerness to ignore our stature as a club and our glorious achievements and pretend we're just another run of the mill club, when nobody else on the outside world will really believe it. 

[Dunnfc]

Just now, JHRover said:

There'll be an additional black hole of between 5-10 million on top of what we were due to lose as a Championship club next season. A massive reduction in payments from the Premier League accounts for the bulk of that, but also likely to be a decline in season ticket sales, merchandise, sponsorship and obviously the big away day bonanzas that the club has tried to exploit so often these last few years - no more PNE, Burnley, Leeds, Wednesday, Villa or Newcastle bringing 5-7 thousand down at £30 a time. It'll be 300 tops from Southend and Northampton with only Bradford getting close to a big away following.

 

Quote

Buoyed by their latest record-breaking £8bn broadcast deal, Premier League clubs will pay Football League teams the following in 'solidarity payments' this year; £4.3m to each Championship side, and £650,000 and £430,000 respectively to clubs in League One and Two.

That's just the solidarity payments we know tv dips from 5 to 1 million. 7.7 million drop so i wasn't to far off with my estimate of 8 million especially when we could expect to see around 300k-500k extra from central funds from the 16 million parachute share of Newcastle bouncing straight back up this year.

That is what i meant when putting an assumption/estimate and rough costings together without seeing the extent of the books, a draft financial plan if you like. Now it would appear Ian hasn't got round to that stage even yet.

This could as you say become a real game changer.

[tomphil]

If you look at Pompey's crowds pre their stint in the Prem they weren't much different to ours back then. They deserve credit for getting behind their club in it's times of need of course but it's no big deal when you look at the size and make up of the place. Either they have great support now but @#/? before or it's never really been what it's cracked up to be.

[Tom]

Have to say a few months back on the Jim White phone in, the guest (Michael Calvin) set Ian up perfectly to blast the nefarious agent, instead Ian brushed it off as mere rumours.

That was a little alarming given that he knows at least as much as anyone of us, and the rest!

We would all take anyone but Venkys but I'm under no illusions if it ever does happen it's not going to be a white knight on a fine steed.

[AllRoverAsia]

I recall that interview and Ian B did give it a quick swerve.

I put it down at the time to Jim White trying to set Ian B up to say something live on air he may later regret.

I hope my reading was right.

[Tom]

Hope so!

We are probably all just so twitchy around that subject there's a level of paranoia especially when there is a tenuous link 

[Sparks Rover]

I'm not sure about this guy or seneca. Lots of employees and a net worth of £1m.  Ok, but certainly not in the bracket we need.  I know he talks of investors, but thats all pie in the sky really.  On paper, these guys can't afford the club or its ongoing operational costs, cannot be seperated from Anderson and in essence Battersby seems to be basically a salesman.  

Be great to be proved wrong.

[A cup of beans]

36 minutes ago, AllRoverAsia said:

I recall that interview and Ian B did give it a quick swerve.

I put it down at the time to Jim White trying to set Ian B up to say something live on air he may later regret.

I hope my reading was right.

Very smart move, why get involved with JA ? etc... that ship has sunk.

[A cup of beans]

18 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

I'm not sure about this guy or seneca. Lots of employees and a net worth of £1m.  Ok, but certainly not in the bracket we need.  I know he talks of investors, but thats all pie in the sky really.  On paper, these guys can't afford the club or its ongoing operational costs, cannot be seperated from Anderson and in essence Battersby seems to be basically a salesman.  

Be great to be proved wrong.

Extensive research, I presume ?

[RevidgeBlue]

Just now, A cup of beans said:

Extensive research, I presume ?

Is there any evidence to suggest the contrary?

[A cup of beans]

Just now, RevidgeBlue said:

Is there any evidence to suggest the contrary?

Anything in particular?  

[Stuart]

7 hours ago, AllRoverAsia said:

Ian B said we would probably get away crowds at Ewood over the season totalling 7,000 the same as Villa brought on their own.

The guy from Morcambe said Pompey will bring 2k Doncaster 1k and someone else 1k plus others so saying IB was way out in his estimation. He also said we will not be the L1 big club and that Pompey are. Maybe thats why Ian B ignored it.

The highest one would be Wigan I'd expect. But that would require a ticket offer and even then it suggest sub-4k. £25 ticket and you would that.

[1864roverite]

Slightly different perspective.

Impressed with IB and Nixon's views/comments.

One thing about BRFC is that they don't owe £100m VENKYS DO. Is the actual debt to BRFC only around £20m?

Venkyscum cannot take anything else from the club cash or asset wise. So they have a choice.

 

Walk away, invest heavily, sell the club, give the club away or embark on a joint enterprise with external partners to make it work.

Whatever path they choose it would appear administration will NOT happen in any circumstance.

[Manchester Blue]

59 minutes ago, Stuart said:

The highest one would be Wigan I'd expect. But that would require a ticket offer and even then it suggest sub-4k. £25 ticket and you would that.

Not listened to the interview yet but appreciate the summaries from all on here.  In terms of crowds from people I've spoken with and read I'm certain we are and will be seen as a big scalp in this league.  Got mates who are Oldham, Bury & Rochdale fans who would all expect to bring several thousand to Ewood as would be a big trip for them.  Obviously a lot depends on day, ie midweek wouldn't help.  In terms of Portsmouth they tend to travel in big numbers if doing well and think Wigan would bring fairly big numbers too, obviously a lot of others wouldn't so a lot depends on the home crowds.  Obviously much would depend on how we do, if we did have a season similar to Bolton i'd be surprised if people weren't tempted back and couldn't get close to the crowds they've managed this year.

[DE.]

Nixon actually came across as a decent guy in that interview (though I did notice he stopped short of saying he had any sympathy for the fans). Ian B got a couple of things wrong imo (particularly the part about League 1 away followings) but we will need people like him if we are ever given the chance to rebuild the club. 

Overall the programme just further established what an absolute mess we are in, close to being hopeless.

[blueboy3333]

41 minutes ago, Manchester Blue said:

Not listened to the interview yet but appreciate the summaries from all on here.  In terms of crowds from people I've spoken with and read I'm certain we are and will be seen as a big scalp in this league.  Got mates who are Oldham, Bury & Rochdale fans who would all expect to bring several thousand to Ewood as would be a big trip for them.  Obviously a lot depends on day, ie midweek wouldn't help.  In terms of Portsmouth they tend to travel in big numbers if doing well and think Wigan would bring fairly big numbers too, obviously a lot of others wouldn't so a lot depends on the home crowds.  Obviously much would depend on how we do, if we did have a season similar to Bolton i'd be surprised if people weren't tempted back and couldn't get close to the crowds they've managed this year.

Yeah, Ian Battersby seemed a bit off in his statement that we'd only get 7k away fans in total next season. His point was more about how little matchday revenue we will get next season compared to this but it showed his ignorance of the league a bit. Like you say, Rovers next season will be a bit of a day out for some local teams and some further afield. Like all clubs a few big away days are planned every season by clubs fans. Bury, Oldham, Rochdale and Fleetwood will make up the 7k on their own I'd imagine. Then you've got Wigan, Pompey, Donny, Rotherham, Plymouth and possibly Bradford or Millwall who could all bring a few. Bradford on a good day could bring 3 or 4k.

[G Somerset Rover]

Where will the £10 million be coming from? As I said yesterday, no doubt the loons will be watching the likes of King and Cairney very carefully this summer. 

[Glenn]

21 minutes ago, DE. said:

Nixon actually came across as a decent guy in that interview (though I did notice he stopped short of saying he had any sympathy for the fans). Ian B got a couple of things wrong imo (particularly the part about League 1 away followings) but we will need people like him if we are ever given the chance to rebuild the club. 

Overall the programme just further established what an absolute mess we are in, close to being hopeless.

One of the good things to come out of it is the number of people on twitter and Facebook who are now genuinely utterly stunned by just how bad things actually are. It's easy to forget if you don't have a constant stream of Rovers intel, it would be easy to fall into the "hey, we'll walk that league and bounce back, visit a few new away grounds and we'll be back in the Championship after 1 season".

[Gav]

When this football club comes up for sale I firmly believe the Seneca bid will be one of several on the table. The clubs proud history and potential will ensure that if the deal is right.

Whilst I'd like nothing more than the football club to go back into the hands of local investors/fans,  the inclusion of a certain individual  in that bid has me feeling somewhat nauseous. You can't have people involved that are more interested in 'feathering their own nests' than taking the club forward, so that's still a worry for me.

Time will tell.

 

 

[Torgeir]

25 minutes ago, Gavlar Somerset Rover! said:

Where will the £10 million be coming from? As I said yesterday, no doubt the loons will be watching the likes of King and Cairney very carefully this summer. 

King was out of contract and Bournemouth agreed to compensate us £1m. Are you sure there's a sell-on clause in place?

[JHRover]

Bayes said last night that they were expecting to speak to people at the club (in Blackburn, not India) over the coming day and that Mike Cheston would be speaking.

Given the blanket of silence from the club I don't know whether I'm looking forward to that or not. On the one hand any information/communication from the club is welcome, yet given Cheston's track record for ludicrous comments and his position in the food chain at the club I doubt he'll contribute anything other than more anger and embarrassment.

[tomphil]

38 minutes ago, Glenn said:

One of the good things to come out of it is the number of people on twitter and Facebook who are now genuinely utterly stunned by just how bad things actually are. It's easy to forget if you don't have a constant stream of Rovers intel, it would be easy to fall into the "hey, we'll walk that league and bounce back, visit a few new away grounds and we'll be back in the Championship after 1 season".

To be honest I've been stunned by the number of we' ll walk that league I've seen and heard !

[Dunnfc]

Just now, tomphil said:

To be honest I've been stunned by the number of we' ll walk that league I've seen and heard !

You have to consider though the small fan base we do and the level of acumen some lack to understand the off field issues

[DE.]

Just now, tomphil said:

To be honest I've been stunned by the number of we' ll walk that league I've seen and heard !

I can understand non-Rovers supporters thinking this. We went down by the skin of our teeth and on the face of it are no worse off than Bolton who have bounced back at the first attempt.

A deeper look into Rovers paints a much bleaker picture though. Our squad is going to be absolutely decimated this summer, and as noted by either Battersby or Nixon, we're looking at bringing in upwards of 15 players just to have a competitive squad. When you consider how slow Venky's are at making any decision, especially when it comes to signing players, how feasible is it that we are going to be anywhere near ready for the start of the season?   

I'm genuinely fearful of the team we're going to be putting out in our first league match. It's not a stretch to say we could be featuring half a dozen youth team players. It's a really scary situation.