[Archived] When will the next general election be called?

[philipl]

The Tories will have to be dragged out by their ankles regardless of internal divisions. 

With the DUP prop and Sinn Fein ever absent, that is half a dozen by-election losses or about four years away.

[Gav]

I did hear an argument recently that supported another general election and a Labour victory, but from a Tory. 

The thinking was that the tories are making such a hash of Brexit, that handing it over to Labour to take the fall instead would probably see the tories back in power at the next election for 3 terms!

Made me laugh anyway. 

[Tim Southampton Rover]

I know it's very easy for me to suggest this, and in reality it probably wouldn't work in our country, but you'd think after the hung parliament the two main parties should come together as a coalition and sort out the Brexit deal. After that we hold a new general election. 

[Dunnfc]

23 hours ago, jim mk2 said:

Tories don't like May and are livid with her for mucking up the recent election but they always stick together in times of crisis and at the moment their greatest fear is Corbyn in Downing Street.

I can't see an election any time soon. The Tories have the Commons majority they need to pass legislation after buying off the DUP at a cost of £100m per MP and there won't be any Tory backbench rebellions.

Incidentally, the £1bn DUP deal proves that the "magic money tree" does exist when necessary and shows also that the recent cancellation of northern rail electrification schemes on cost grounds was an act of pure political spite by the Tories,

 

Err that’s not why the electrification was annulled at all, it’s entirely inaccurate for you to be even suggesting as such and somewhat gravely naive. It’s simply nothing to do with politics what so ever. Network Rail (NWR) have failed to deliver to budget several of the electrification schemes and others bar the Northern Hub project which Is one if it’s key successes and as such now have a shortfall to fund other projects in the stages of CP5 (Budget 2014-2019). There is now more investment under a “Tory” government in infrastructure projects since the Victorian ages in which eclipses most “Labour” reigns. Below is a recent table of expenditure taken from the Government Office of Rail and Road.

Additionally the decisions made to electrify are not so much based on environmental views/carbon reduction which was aimed at 30% or electrification being just greener but the capacity of the traffic on the lines and timing improvements such as the Ordsall Chord (Package A) in Manchester providing additional capacity requirements by connecting Piccadilly and Victoria in Manchester for the first time allowing services to cross. “Transpire” known as Trans Pennine which is currently underway is a process of improving individual routes, the contractors Amey/BAM Nuttall etc will in effect propose timetable enhancements from upgrading track alignment and civil delivery to quicken journeys between Manchester and York and as such survived and remained in CP5.

It wasn’t just cuts to the Lake District lines and Swansea lines (two of the most underused) off the top of my head Package C delivering a further 350 million + worth of works in Manchester (Oxford Road to Piccadilly) also got withdrawn from CP5 but likely to re-enter into CP6 for new platforms and capacity. The trains using the weather laden lakes line and Swansea lines require the TOCS (Train Operating Companies) to upgrade their fleet soon anyways under the franchise agreement and previously undertaken last year was the trialling of “Bio-Mode” trains and upgraded models of existing rolling stock which were trialled as converted green. The Bio Mode (BMU) trains would cost more per unit than the works themselves so it certainly isn’t being cut by the “Torys” in any way you suggest. Given the lakes suffer from tremendous weathering affects the OLE stations (Steel Masts for Cables) installed would take a battering and provide reliability issues and require long-term maintaince whilst given the terrain and distance of the lines ruling a 3^rd rail option inappropriate and unsuitable.

I work with costs and contracts on behalf of NWR so quite happily to advise you further.

[Skiptonrover]

On 24/07/2017 at 15:38, chaddyrovers said:

My disinterested comes from the same old people not willing to work to together for the national good..

Bored of the same old stuff.

Ive stopped watching PMQ's now since Cameron went. Its boring.and just a shouting match

Same here I got fed up with it people saying the same things & nothing ever changing. Too much waffle & big ego's completely different to the old school politicians I used to enjoy listening to & debating. Just cheap petty point scoring the only modernist politician I had any time for was Tim farron now he's gone I hardly watch it.

[Baz]

8 hours ago, Dunnfc said:

Err that’s not why the electrification was annulled at all, it’s entirely inaccurate for you to be even suggesting as such and somewhat gravely naive. It’s simply nothing to do with politics what so ever. Network Rail (NWR) have failed to deliver to budget several of the electrification schemes and others bar the Northern Hub project which Is one if it’s key successes and as such now have a shortfall to fund other projects in the stages of CP5 (Budget 2014-2019). There is now more investment under a “Tory” government in infrastructure projects since the Victorian ages in which eclipses most “Labour” reigns. Below is a recent table of expenditure taken from the Government Office of Rail and Road.

Additionally the decisions made to electrify are not so much based on environmental views/carbon reduction which was aimed at 30% or electrification being just greener but the capacity of the traffic on the lines and timing improvements such as the Ordsall Chord (Package A) in Manchester providing additional capacity requirements by connecting Piccadilly and Victoria in Manchester for the first time allowing services to cross. “Transpire” known as Trans Pennine which is currently underway is a process of improving individual routes, the contractors Amey/BAM Nuttall etc will in effect propose timetable enhancements from upgrading track alignment and civil delivery to quicken journeys between Manchester and York and as such survived and remained in CP5.

It wasn’t just cuts to the Lake District lines and Swansea lines (two of the most underused) off the top of my head Package C delivering a further 350 million + worth of works in Manchester (Oxford Road to Piccadilly) also got withdrawn from CP5 but likely to re-enter into CP6 for new platforms and capacity. The trains using the weather laden lakes line and Swansea lines require the TOCS (Train Operating Companies) to upgrade their fleet soon anyways under the franchise agreement and previously undertaken last year was the trialling of “Bio-Mode” trains and upgraded models of existing rolling stock which were trialled as converted green. The Bio Mode (BMU) trains would cost more per unit than the works themselves so it certainly isn’t being cut by the “Torys” in any way you suggest. Given the lakes suffer from tremendous weathering affects the OLE stations (Steel Masts for Cables) installed would take a battering and provide reliability issues and require long-term maintaince whilst given the terrain and distance of the lines ruling a 3^rd rail option inappropriate and unsuitable.

I work with costs and contracts on behalf of NWR so quite happily to advise you further.

Ok how do you account for the rolling stock in the north-west vs the rolling stock in the south?

Are you saying that every project in the south has been on time and on budget?

[jim mk2]

1 hour ago, Baz said:

Ok how do you account for the rolling stock in the north-west vs the rolling stock in the south?

Are you saying that every project in the south has been on time and on budget?

Javelins capable of 125mph for Kent commuters.

Pacers capable of barely 25mph for northern commuters.

Northern rail improvements cancelled by a southern Tory minister who a day later approved another £15bn for London infrastructure.

And the idiotic Brexiteers think the problem of the "elites" lies in Brussels

 

[Jimbo]

12 hours ago, jim mk2 said:

Javelins capable of 125mph for Kent commuters.

Pacers capable of barely 25mph for northern commuters.

Northern rail improvements cancelled by a southern Tory minister who a day later approved another £15bn for London infrastructure.

And the idiotic Brexiteers think the problem of the "elites" lies in Brussels

 

Lets get the context right - If I commute from Preston to Warrington then I'd also get a nice fast comfortable train, and pay a premium to do so. If I commute from Ebbsfleet to St Pancras ditto. But I don't, I live in Kent with a 10 mile commute into Cannon St. It takes 30 mins on stinking, overcrowded and uncomfortable trains Any journey after 7:30 I don't get a seat and pay £2k per year for the priviledge, It's not all a bed of roses commuting into London. 

 

I'm so peeved with the whole thing that I've started to commute by bike - It only takes me 45 mins door to door, so 5 minutes quicker than by train and all it costs is sweat (and lots of money on lycra, and maybe a new bike)

[Gav]

Jimbo you're right about some commuter lines in the south, having done them myself for a year I can certainly sympathise with you.

But I have to say again, how can it be right that it takes between 2.5 and 3hrs to get to Sheffield from Blackburn by train? a trip of some 65 miles?

Leeds to Sheffield - 1hr? 30 miles away?

Blackburn to Ravenglass in west lakes - 3hrs - 80 miles?

Blackburn to Liverpool - 2hrs!!! 40 miles away?

Clitheroe to Manchester isn't a bad time just over an hour, but often 1/2 carriages full to bursting and £2200 for a season ticket......

Scandalous and the Tories have promised to electrify the lines and pulled the funding.

Thankfully they'll be out at the next election and lets see if Labour can do anything about it.

[Jimbo]

I'm not defending the state of the trains - they are a shambles where ever you are - But it does depend on the line you are on - I have a  couple of options in to work - Croydon East into London Bridge is a mainline route and takes 19 Minutes. My train to Cannon Street takes 30 minutes purely commuter line and if I get my backup solution Southern Trains from Beckenham to London Bridge 45 mins - All for the same-ish 10 mile journey, which makes Leeds Sheffield look quite speedy

London gets the funding because of the sheer number of commuters travelling (350,000 into the City alone on a daily basis) This would not be remotely possible without a robust public transport system in place. Also you have to remember that housing costs in London make living there prohibitively expensive for all but the richest. It would be much easier to reduce you commuting distance anywhere else.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2016/jun/08/how-far-distance-workers-commute-uk-cities-mapped shows commuter travel for major cities around England and nothing compare to London - How much of this is down to the fact that people do it because the infrastructure is in place to allow them to is another question.

 

It does seem a bit strange that Diesel cars are being banned but Diesel trains are acceptable - but hey ho that what you get from any politician disjointed thinking, unless they are lining their own pockets.

 

 

[jim mk2]

4 hours ago, Jimbo said:

Lets get the context right - If I commute from Preston to Warrington then I'd also get a nice fast comfortable train, and pay a premium to do so. If I commute from Ebbsfleet to St Pancras ditto. But I don't, I live in Kent with a 10 mile commute into Cannon St. It takes 30 mins on stinking, overcrowded and uncomfortable trains Any journey after 7:30 I don't get a seat and pay £2k per year for the priviledge, It's not all a bed of roses commuting into London. 

 

I'm so peeved with the whole thing that I've started to commute by bike - It only takes me 45 mins door to door, so 5 minutes quicker than by train and all it costs is sweat (and lots of money on lycra, and maybe a new bike)

The trains I quoted are extreme examples but the general point is correct. Even the trains in service on the newly electrified Liverpool -Manchester route are 35-year old cast offs from Thameslink. A similar London improvement would have received new trains. 

The problem of the sheer volume of London commuter demand is the result of 30 year govt policies - ie, an overheated economy in one vast city and relate decline and neglect elsewhere. 

[jim mk2]

2 hours ago, Gav said:

Jimbo you're right about some commuter lines in the south, having done them myself for a year I can certainly sympathise with you.

But I have to say again, how can it be right that it takes between 2.5 and 3hrs to get to Sheffield from Blackburn by train? a trip of some 65 miles?

Leeds to Sheffield - 1hr? 30 miles away?

Blackburn to Ravenglass in west lakes - 3hrs - 80 miles?

Blackburn to Liverpool - 2hrs!!! 40 miles away?

Clitheroe to Manchester isn't a bad time just over an hour, but often 1/2 carriages full to bursting and £2200 for a season ticket......

Scandalous and the Tories have promised to electrify the lines and pulled the funding.

Thankfully they'll be out at the next election and lets see if Labour can do anything about it.

Some of those journey times are worse than before the first world war. It's the result of decades of lack of investment and indifference towards the north by Westminster. The north will never realise its economic potential until there is either proper devolved govt with real powers and / or govt departments are moved lock stock and barrel out of London. Do you think northern infrastructure would be so bad if Sir Humphrey had to commute into Blackburn? 

[den]

1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

I'm not defending the state of the trains - they are a shambles where ever you are - But it does depend on the line you are on - I have a  couple of options in to work - Croydon East into London Bridge is a mainline route and takes 19 Minutes. My train to Cannon Street takes 30 minutes purely commuter line and if I get my backup solution Southern Trains from Beckenham to London Bridge 45 mins - All for the same-ish 10 mile journey, which makes Leeds Sheffield look quite speedy

London gets the funding because of the sheer number of commuters travelling (350,000 into the City alone on a daily basis) This would not be remotely possible without a robust public transport system in place. Also you have to remember that housing costs in London make living there prohibitively expensive for all but the richest. It would be much easier to reduce you commuting distance anywhere else.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2016/jun/08/how-far-distance-workers-commute-uk-cities-mapped shows commuter travel for major cities around England and nothing compare to London - How much of this is down to the fact that people do it because the infrastructure is in place to allow them to is another question.

 

It does seem a bit strange that Diesel cars are being banned but Diesel trains are acceptable - but hey ho that what you get from any politician disjointed thinking, unless they are lining their own pockets.

 

 

When you say London gets the investment due to the sheer numbers commuting, this graph of all transport investment, even though it's three years ago, is investment per head. Does that not give a real feel of how the south of England sees far, far more attention than anyone north of London? The further north you go, the less the investment.

£2595 per person invested in London. 

£5 per person invested in the north east.

 

[Jimbo]

Don't mistake my replies for defending Tory policies on the railways, I'm not, I'm an avid proponent of re-nationalisation but to reply to Den - Those figures are per person and not per commuter - A fairer figure would be for the subsidy per train journey in each region. Those figures are skewed massively towards the Capital because most journeys into London are by public transport. This is not the case in the regions.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics comes to mind.

And I know, you can commute into London because the infrastructure is there, where you can't in the regions. But for most cities outside London it wouldn't make sense to spend on the infrastructure.

Also look at the mess that was the Edinburgh light rail project - These are the types of things that should be happening everywhere, but they can't even get those in place.

[matt83]

Ah yes the old "rolling stock cascade". Must admit it slightly sticks in my craw to get the south easts hand me downs when they're deemed substandard for southerners. Those pacer trains still in use up here are beyond a joke.

When more of the manchester was electrified, the 1981 electric trains which ran on Bedford to Brighton via central London were repainted and sent up here. In the meantime London got brand new trains.

Investing in railways in and out of London is always top priory due to high passenger numbers. Obviously they're looking at pure economics. Both Labour and Tory govts don't get much bang for their buck if they bought state of the art, Japanese toilet, air conditioned train where a handful of bozos get on from Hebden Bridge to east garforth.

At the end of the day they don't give shiny @#/? about doing what's fair.

[Baz]

The point Jim makes is important and very truthful. Because of the London centric economic policies over the last several decades, the top companies and better paid jobs are there, and the infrastructure in London has followed.

In other countries not everything has to be located in the capital, so jobs, infrastructure, housing bubbles etc are not as prevelant.

A recent example is that the houses of parliament need major refurbishment , at a cost of many millions if not billions.

Why not use the opportunity to build new ones outside of London, where the costs are lower, the costs for paying for Mps housing is lower, where it would bring investment into a different area etc? Leave the current buildings for some property development. Not even up for discussion.

HS2 / Northern Powerhouse - heavily discussed, little funding.

[Skiptonrover]

7 minutes ago, Baz said:

The point Jim makes is important and very truthful. Because of the London centric economic policies over the last several decades, the top companies and better paid jobs are there, and the infrastructure in London has followed.

In other countries not everything has to be located in the capital, so jobs, infrastructure, housing bubbles etc are not as prevelant.

A recent example is that the houses of parliament need major refurbishment , at a cost of many millions if not billions.

Why not use the opportunity to build new ones outside of London, where the costs are lower, the costs for paying for Mps housing is lower, where it would bring investment into a different area etc? Leave the current buildings for some property development. Not even up for discussion.

HS2 / Northern Powerhouse - heavily discussed, little funding.

All savings which will be made cutting the EU bureaucractic red tape. How many quangos really???

[jim mk2]

.....to be replaced by British red tape. But at least it will be OUR red tape, eh what ??

[Skiptonrover]

4 hours ago, jim mk2 said:

.....to be replaced by British red tape. But at least it will be OUR red tape, eh what ??

Exactly. "idiotic brexiteers" only gripe. We all had our say a democratic process has already taken place. No need for a second referendum. Disregard the past to get a firm grip of the future. In life certain decisions haven't gone my way however frustrating you just got to get on with things & accept whatever the situation has presented itself.

[den]

18 hours ago, Bluebarley said:

Exactly. "idiotic brexiteers" only gripe. We all had our say a democratic process has already taken place. No need for a second referendum. Disregard the past to get a firm grip of the future. In life certain decisions haven't gone my way however frustrating you just got to get on with things & accept whatever the situation has presented itself.

Referendums can either be democratic or irreversible. They can't be both.

 

[Skiptonrover]

1 hour ago, den said:

Referendums can either be democratic or irreversible. They can't be both.

 

True. As a side idea why don't we keep having referendums until we get what the remainers want then when the brexiteers aren't happy we can have another & so on. Surely a referendum isn't irreversible but it shouldn't happen at the drop of a hat to pander to 1 side when the result has already been declared.

[den]

No, not at the drop of a hat, just when we know what's in front of us. Unless the view is that we leave whatever harm it's going to do.

what could be more democratic than that?

[Skiptonrover]

9 minutes ago, den said:

No, not at the drop of a hat, just when we know what's in front of us. Unless the view is that we leave whatever harm it's going to do.

what could be more democratic than that?

I think we've got to have the courage of our convictions with this 1 & just go ahead with it. There will be positives & negatives with it but other countries have managed without too many problems. I can't say whether it will be a success or failure time will decide that. We can't be haunted by the past its 1 of them you never know until you do. I take it you've got lot's of doubts & maybe a cautious person?

[den]

21 minutes ago, Bluebarley said:

I think we've got to have the courage of our convictions with this 1 & just go ahead with it. There will be positives & negatives with it but other countries have managed without too many problems. I can't say whether it will be a success or failure time will decide that. We can't be haunted by the past its 1 of them you never know until you do. I take it you've got lot's of doubts & maybe a cautious person?

I'm a person who's reaped the benefits and freedoms of being part of the single market, then the EU for many years. I don't like the idea that the older generation have had a big hand in denying the future generations that same opportunity. Far from cautious and certainly not of the belief that immigration is a negative factor for the UK. Tariff free trade coupled with freedom of movement for all Europeans is something to be cherished. Negativity is the idea of withdrawing from a growing Europe and isolating the country based largely on Xenophobia and Islamaphobia. That solves nothing.

[Skiptonrover]

1 hour ago, den said:

I'm a person who's reaped the benefits and freedoms of being part of the single market, then the EU for many years. I don't like the idea that the older generation have had a big hand in denying the future generations that same opportunity. Far from cautious and certainly not of the belief that immigration is a negative factor for the UK. Tariff free trade coupled with freedom of movement for all Europeans is something to be cherished. Negativity is the idea of withdrawing from a growing Europe and isolating the country based largely on Xenophobia and Islamaphobia. That solves nothing.

Having taking time out to articulate a careful & considerate response to the post leaves me to agree with most points whilst being a staunch brexiteer if thats the tag! The only point I really don't agree with is the immigration policy, I do think that is a negative factor with people being deprived of job employment opportunities & a crumbling infrastructure which is clearly close to a breaking point with the demands that is being forced upon it.