[Archived] Half Way Stage 2017/18

[JimEdd]

Apologies if there's anything wrong with this post, or if I've incorrectly opened a new topic as it's my first post.  We are exactly half way through the Season and I, like a lot of other messagers, have been complaining that we started the Season poorly, haven't played a particularly attractive style of play and maybe we should have a lot more points than we actually have.  BUT, when you look at the history of League 1 over the last 10 years, the data below shows that if we do as well in the second half of the season as we did in the first half of the season, we are virtually sure of promotion.

Teams finishing 1st and 2nd in League 1 over the last 10 years:

2017    1) Sheffield United 100 points; 2) Bolton Wanderers 86 points

2016    1) Wigan 87 points; 2) Burton Albion 85 points

2015   1) Bristol City 00 points; 2) MK Dons 91 points

2014   1) Wolves 103 points; 2) Brentford 94 points

2013  1) Doncaster Rovers 84 points' 2) Bournemouth 83 points

2012   1) Charlton Athletic 101 points' 2) Sheffield Wednesday 93 points

2011   1) Brighton and Hove Albion 95 points; 2) Southampton 92 points

2010   1) Norwich City 95 points' 2) Leeds United 86 points

2009   1) Leicester City 96 points; Peterborough 89 points

2008   1) Swansea City 92 points; Notts Forrest 82 point

Here's me thinking we'd had a poor first half of the Season with only 47 points at the halfway stage when, in recent history, no Team who has scored 94 points has failed to get automatic promotion.  So all we need to do is to get another 47 points from the second half of the season to get to the magic number of 94 points and seal promotion.

I really think this is achievable in the second half of the season,  COYB

 

 

[J*B]

Well that’s put me in my place. I thought we where off the pace! Wigan are looking so well we can all but write off 1st. It’s a battle for second I think. 

[Boroblue]

I agree with Jimedd it’s achievable. It’s not pretty but it seems to be effective.

Will we get another 47 points ?

Yes and possibly a few more. 

[blueboy3333]

...and if Shrewsbury and Wigan do as well in the second half of the season we'll still finish third.  We might need 95+ points to finish 2nd. We need to be scarily consistent with the wins from here on in.

Does anyone have the league 1 table handy from the half-way point of last season?

[JimEdd]

I honestly think that both Wigan and Shrewsbury have over-achieved in the first half of the season and that we are the only ones of the top 3 who have under-achieved.  Wigan have been absolutely superb and may keep it up, Shrewsbury have exceeded all their expectations whilst Rovers have under-performed.  Think we will go up, well clear of 3rd place.

[only2garners]

24 minutes ago, blueboy3333 said:

...and if Shrewsbury and Wigan do as well in the second half of the season we'll still finish third.  We might need 95+ points to finish 2nd. We need to be scarily consistent with the wins from here on in.

But on the basis of the stats that is very, very unlikely to happen. I've quickly gone back another 10 years and JimEdd's point still holds - no team has got 94 points in a season and not been automatically promoted.

Of course it's technically possible but it would require a very weird distribution of results with all other challengers falling away in the second half of the season and there is no sign whatsoever of that happening.

From JimEdd's numbers for the last 10 years the average second placed team has 88.1 points. Get 94 and any team is almost guaranteed automatic promotion, which I think is his point.

[HowieFive0]

56 minutes ago, blueboy3333 said:

...and if Shrewsbury and Wigan do as well in the second half of the season we'll still finish third.  We might need 95+ points to finish 2nd. We need to be scarily consistent with the wins from here on in.

Does anyone have the league 1 table handy from the half-way point of last season?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38360809

[Pedro]

We just have to outperform Scunthorpe and Shrewsbury between now and the end of the season and we'll get 2nd. Top spot isn't out of reach but I only care for promotion.  

I still feel like we yet to 'click' and I expect more to come from Nuttall, Samuel and Whittingham in the second half of the season. Lenihan is on the verge of a return and fingers crossed for Chapman hitting the ground running upon his comeback.

[Boroblue]

Statistically two teams with more than 88.1 points will finish in the top two unless something unusual happens ie last seasons relegation.

The question is then which teams we believe subjectively are best equipped to achieve this. Are form after a stuttering start, squad numbers and a style of play that relies on organisation and flashes of individuality suggests that it is achievable.

if you had to place your last money on us or  one of the others barring maybe Wigan were would you put it?

[Sparks Rover]

With a couple of decent signings and Lenihan back we will walk up

[Butty]

I thought we'd start slowly which we did, but our squad for me beats Wigans as the best in the division and we've started to show that recently. To have won as many games as we have playing poorly in a lot of them, surely if performance levels increase we will definitely be promoted, we might not even need to increase performance levels as we are getting results regardless. Our record against teams in the top half is where it should be, if we start blowing those in the bottom half away, which we our squad should most definitely be capable of, then it should be a very enjoyable second half of the season. Bradley Dack could win us promotion on his own  Our squad will 100% need serious investment if/WHEN we get promoted but let's not get hung up on that yet and just enjoy winning football matches for now. COYB #VenkysOut 

[JacknOry]

4 hours ago, Butty said:

I thought we'd start slowly which we did, but our squad for me beats Wigans as the best in the division and we've started to show that recently. To have won as many games as we have playing poorly in a lot of them, surely if performance levels increase we will definitely be promoted, we might not even need to increase performance levels as we are getting results regardless. Our record against teams in the top half is where it should be, if we start blowing those in the bottom half away, which we our squad should most definitely be capable of, then it should be a very enjoyable second half of the season. Bradley Dack could win us promotion on his own  Our squad will 100% need serious investment if/WHEN we get promoted but let's not get hung up on that yet and just enjoy winning football matches for now. COYB #VenkysOut 

I agree getting up is the most important thing but we should also be preparing for the Championship with regards to any signings in January. We need to be thinking now about players in this league that have the ability to step up at the very least. We are in a position of strength and should be using that to pick up the better players in this league.

If we had proper owners - thats what we would be doing anyway.

[arbitro]

Our home fixtures are a worry for me as Wigan, Shrewsbury, Bradford and Scunthorpe still have to come to Ewood where our performances haven't been very good. I think all four will set up defensively and be happy with a point. Our struggles against this type of tactic have been clear for all to see. Away from home I don't really have any fears where our ability to counter attack should stand us in good stead.

Keeping Mulgrew fit and three new signings who can change the way we operate at home will undoubtedly keep us in the frame.

[47er]

30 minutes ago, arbitro said:

Our home fixtures are a worry for me as Wigan, Shrewsbury, Bradford and Scunthorpe still have to come to Ewood where our performances haven't been very good. I think all four will set up defensively and be happy with a point. Our struggles against this type of tactic have been clear for all to see. Away from home I don't really have any fears where our ability to counter attack should stand us in good stead.

Keeping Mulgrew fit and three new signings who can change the way we operate at home will undoubtedly keep us in the frame.

Cutting out the giveaway goals at the back and taking chances anyone else would gobble up will do.

[dingles staying down 4ever]

1 hour ago, 47er said:

Cutting out the giveaway goals at the back and taking chances anyone else would gobble up will do.

Just get the basics right. We need to create more chances at home though.

[JHRover]

12 hours ago, J*B said:

Well that’s put me in my place. I thought we where off the pace! Wigan are looking so well we can all but write off 1st. It’s a battle for second I think. 

Not having that J*B. If we're writing Wigan off already at the half way stage then we've failed. We should be aiming for 1st place with this squad and run we are on. 5 points can be overcome especially with Wigan to come to Ewood. 

[rigger]

My view is, so far Wigan & Shrewsbury are over-achieving, we are under-performing, a slight shift from anyone and we will be automatically promoted. This is only an opinion and has no basis in facts.

[Rover_Shaun]

Halfway stage......7/10

[DE.]

I still think we need to improve our performances to sustain our form to the end of the season. We have too many 50/50 games and we're so reliant on Mulgrew and Dack that an injury to either would be a brutal blow. 

We've got into the winning habit and results are unarguably very good right now. If we can inject some confidence and belief into our play and start dominating teams like automatic promotion candidates should then we'll be fine. If we can't then it'll be a very nervous few months ahead. I don't see us finishing outside the playoffs at this point, but I can't say I'm hugely confident we'll end up in an automatic promotion spot either. 

[Paul]

19 hours ago, J*B said:

Well that’s put me in my place. I thought we where off the pace! Wigan are looking so well we can all but write off 1st. It’s a battle for second I think. 

Sorry 100% disagree with this. Although we still have not played consistently well I think Rovers could be a better side than Wigan. Five points is easily overcome.  

[robbojohnno]

My minimum target for the season was top 6. I was hopeful of a top 2 challenge and the dream scenario top 2. This was based on us having the best team on paper but the fact we are still run by the farcical indians and have been on a downward spiral for years. The start to the season was what I expected after around 15 games as we were in and around the top 6. Thankfully we have kicked on since then and now sit in 3rd with an average of 2 points a game. If we don't go up then the likes of Mulgrew/Dack will be off and it will be an even bigger slog next year so I think we have to now take advantage of a good firs half to the season. Lenihan will be a boost and hopefully we dip into the market for a first team starter, ideally a winger. 

The football overall this season has been fairly inconsistent and generally slow so it hasn't been fantastic to watch BUT we have won at some tough places - Scunthorpe & Bradford for example which has counteracted some poor early home form. Hopefully we can be a bit more ambitious in the next few months but not at the detriment of the results.  The camaraderie between player's,  manager and fans a like has been a real strength and Mowbray has to take credit for that.

Mowbray gets a 7.5/10 for me at half-way.

[JacknOry]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

Sorry 100% disagree with this. Although we still have not played consistently well I think Rovers could be a better side than Wigan. Five points is easily overcome.  

Its only easily overcome if they slip and we keep up our current form. The ball is in their courts and while they are beating teams 0-7 away from home, we are struggling to beat bottom feeders 2-1 at home. I dont think it is easily overcome at all, they have been bashing teams while we have flattered to deceive. 

[J*B]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

Sorry 100% disagree with this. Although we still have not played consistently well I think Rovers could be a better side than Wigan. Five points is easily overcome.  

My only concern with Wigan is they seem to be getting better. They properly put teams to the sword where we often win by a couple of goals.

[1864roverite]

14 more wins required. Beat Shrewsburynandnpie scoffers at home and the six pointers make it a cert we will take a top 2slot

[Paul]

12 hours ago, JacknOry said:

Its only easily overcome if they slip and we keep up our current form. The ball is in their courts and while they are beating teams 0-7 away from home, we are struggling to beat bottom feeders 2-1 at home. I dont think it is easily overcome at all, they have been bashing teams while we have flattered to deceive. 

 

12 hours ago, J*B said:

My only concern with Wigan is they seem to be getting better. They properly put teams to the sword where we often win by a couple of goals.

 By taking parts of your comments I'm not point scoring but looking to illustrate why I can't agree with either opinion. The results September to December don't reflect your opinions. I've only seen Wigan play once when I genuinely believe but for Bennett's dismissal we would have beaten them. I haven't seen the rest of the league play other than those teams who have visited Ewood. Wigan have had one 4-0 victory at Wimbledon and what I would call a "Christmas result," (we've all seen them) at Oxford. The difference between Rovers and Wigan is we have drawn too many games in the period:

Wigan

• W 16
• D 1
• L 1

Winning margin by goals

• By 1 = 6 matches
• By 2 = 4 matches
• By 3 = 4 matches
• By 4 = 1 match
• By 7 = 1 match

Rovers

• W 12
• D 5
• L 2

Winning margin by goals

• By 1 = 4 matches
• By 2 = 5 matches
• By 3 = 3 matches

Take out the 4 and 7 goal margins and Rovers over the 1,2 and 3 goal victories outscored Wigan 42 to 38 but Wigan have a better goal difference as they seem to concede fewer.

I can't see much to suggest Wigan " properly put teams to the sword where we often win by a couple of goals" - and what is wrong with winning by a couple of goals? Nor can I see evidence Wigan are "bashing teams while we have flattered to deceive" As I say I've seen Wigan once, if you have seen them play brilliantly multiple times I'll accept the bashing bit but the actual results, to date, show otherwise. Yes we have lost more, that is what we have to address and if we continue to "often win by a couple of goals" I'l be delighted.

I know we aren't a brilliant team, I've yet to see a brilliant team this season but I have seen a one or two that are better than the rest - that's all. I think we will win on Saturday and hopefully get at least 4 points from the following to fixtures. If our results continue in a similar vein we will beat Wigan in early March and at some point by then they will have lost.

I rarely agree with Vinjay17 but do think we have to concentrate on how well we are doing and forget the rest. As it stands I feel we will gain automatic promotion and perhaps as Champions - that is very much in the balance. It's pretty clearly in our hands to lose out on promotion. I don't fancy our lot in a play off though!!