[Archived] Automatic promotion

[philipl]

Any hopes that Wigan or Shrewsbury are going to stop their magnificent runs might as well be filed now in the forlorn category.

Assuming we keep going whoever comes third is going to be setting an unfortunate points record this season...

So 16 games left and 12 wins is the minimum target in my reckoning taking us to 95 points.

Draws are only one point better than a defeat. A new long unbeaten run with plenty of Ds in the sequence is not going to see us celebrating promotion.

Our defence is leaking a goal a game. Unless Mulgrew and Lennahan get fit, stay fit and play to their maximum ability, we can be pretty certain we are going to need to be averaging 2.5 goals per match by scoring at least 40 in these 16 remaining games.

Thankfully Mowbray seemed to have worked this out with his January transfer business but unfortunately he forgot to put it on the park at Plymouth. Goals are spread around our team and that is before Payne and Armstrong get going so scoring the necessary is well within our ability provided Mowbray sets us up to go for the 3 points every game from first whistle to last.  

[chaddyrovers]

Good balance post @philipl

I feel we need 95 points to get promote which 12 wins out of the 16 games. 36 points on top of us already having 59 points. Maybe even another win to be sure. 

We have to win the Wigan game at home. 

We got to remain positive and create a positive home atmosphere like the last 3 games from the start 

[Wing Wizard Windy Miller]

Agree fully.  Caution has to go out the window.  We are nailed on for a play off place so time to gamble. Draws not much use now. Very similar to the Bowyer season...too much respecting the point against Yeovil scenarios.  

High pressing, attacking football every game because we can't keep clean sheets and grind out wins.  

Teams are also finding ways to stifle Dack so even more reason to have Payne on the park. 

11 to 12 wins should do it. Anything less requires Shrewsbury to blow up and I can not see that happening. 

[Cherry Blue]

Remaining fixtures give us some idea of task ahead. Wigan still two away game dates tbc due to FA cup. 

                                                 Shrewsbury Town (17)      Wigan Athletic (18)         Rovers (16)               
Saturday 10th February        H    Plymouth Argyle        A    Southend United        H    Oldham Athletic
Tuesday 13th February         A    Fleetwood Town        H    Blackpool                   A    Portsmouth
Saturday 17th February        H    Rotherham United                        
Monday 19th February                                                                                                 H    Bury
Tuesday 20th February        H    Gillingham                        
     tbc                                                                                    A    Bradford City 

     tbc                                                                                    A    Rochdale           
Saturday 24th February       A    Charlton Athletic         H    Rochdale                    A    Walsall
Tuesday 27th February                                                     A    Bristol Rovers            A    AFC Wimbledon
Saturday 3rd March             H    Peterborough United                        
Sunday 4th March                                                             A    Blackburn Rovers      H    Wigan Athletic
Saturday 10th March           H    Walsall                         H    Scunthorpe United    H    Blackpool
Saturday 17th March           A    Scunthorpe United     A    Walsall                        A    Gillingham
Saturday 24th March           H    AFC Wimbledon         A    Bury                             A    Doncaster Rovers
Thursday 29th March                                                                                                  H    Bradford City
Friday 30th March                A    Rochdale                     H    Oldham Athletic            
Monday 2nd April                 H    Oxford United             A    Portsmouth                A    Milton Keynes Dons
Saturday 7th April                A    Northampton Town    H    Milton Keynes Dons H    Southend United
Saturday 14th April              A    Bradford City               H    Rotherham United    A    Bristol Rovers
Tuesday 17th April               H    Charlton Athletic        H    Oxford United            
Saturday 21st April              H    Bury                               A    Fleetwood Town        H    Peterborough United
Saturday 28th April             A    Blackpool                      H   Wimbledon                  A    Charlton Athletic
Saturday 5th May                H    Milton Keynes Dons    A    Doncaster Rovers      H    Oxford United
 

[Bigdoggsteel]

Shrewsbury and Wigan won't win every game between now and the end of the season. We just need to make sure we win as many as possible. If shrewsbury draw their game in hand and then lose a week where we win ,we are ahead on goal difference. Plenty of twists and turns yet

[Blue blood]

H

4 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Shrewsbury and Wigan won't win every game between now and the end of the season. We just need to make sure we win as many as possible. If shrewsbury draw their game in hand and then lose a week where we win ,we are ahead on goal difference. Plenty of twists and turns yet

Problem is we won't win every week either!

The odds of Shrewsbury drawing and then losing are small, with the odds of us winning on top of that - I think barring an injury crisis there or some bad luck for them - is pretty slim.

Caution to the wind time indeed. Fear it's too late although there's always an in form team that has a wobble. Here's hoping Shrewsbury are that team this year.

[Bigdoggsteel]

19 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

H

Problem is we won't win every week either!

The odds of Shrewsbury drawing and then losing are small, with the odds of us winning on top of that - I think barring an injury crisis there or some bad luck for them - is pretty slim.

Caution to the wind time indeed. Fear it's too late although there's always an in form team that has a wobble. Here's hoping Shrewsbury are that team this year.

The odds of Shrewsbury drawing and losing are completely dependent on who they are playing and they have some tricky away ties to come. 

[Cherry Blue]

For Shrewsbury they have Rovers v Wigan fixture for at least one team to drop points. They're very good at nicking a late goal but how on earth are they still 2nd after only scoring 39 goals?? Are Wigan too good that we might as well not worry or will their fixture tally creep up?? Can't see them beating MCFC but a draw would be a (welcome) distraction.

[DE.]

Just now, Cherry Blue said:

For Shrewsbury they have Rovers v Wigan fixture for at least one team to drop points. They're very good at nicking a late goal but how on earth are they still 2nd after only scoring 39 goals??

Defensive solidity. That's ultimately what wins matches, not needing to score 2-3 goals per match to get anything out of it. 

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

The odds of Shrewsbury drawing and losing are completely dependent on who they are playing and they have some tricky away ties to come. 

I thought they'd come undone at Portsmouth, but they came back victorious. Prior to that, they only managed a draw at home to Doncaster. I don't think anybody can predict how the run-in is going to unravel.

[roversfan99]

Shrewsbury are the ones that would rankle if they got promoted at our expense.

Wigan have a core of players, Will Grigg, Max Power, Sam Morsy, Nick Powell, Dan Burn, Michael Jacobs, they are players that have either done well at this level in the past or shown signs of quality at higher levels. If they got promoted no one would bat an eye lid.

Thats very similar to ours, Mulgrew, Whittingham, Bennett, Graham and Williams have all shown that they are more than capable at the level above. We signed Dack, player of the season in League 1 the year before last. We signed Smallwood, got League 1 promotion before. 

Shrewsburys budget and resources are meagre in comparison, theyve barely added to a squad that finished I think 18th last season. If they finished above us, they'd have exceeded expectations just as we'd have underachieved. They'd then deserve as much praise as we'd deserve criticism, its not arrogant to say that, the thing that people miss is Mowbray saying himself, what sort of manager would he if he failed to achieve promotion. Shrewsbury have done brilliantly and arent going away, lets hope our quality is utilised efficiently by the manager and shines through.

[blueboy3333]

56 minutes ago, OnePhilT said:

I thought they'd come undone at Portsmouth, but they came back victorious. Prior to that, they only managed a draw at home to Doncaster. I don't think anybody can predict how the run-in is going to unravel.

Indeed...and pressure will come into it at some point. There's still the chance that Shrews, Wigan or us will go on a bad run or collapse completely. Bradford have lost 7 of their last 10. They were level with us around Christmas.

[1864roverite]

It’s gonna be a close call. All have some tasty games wigons pitch with the rugby and fa cup spanking might work against them

 

[RevidgeBlue]

I was thinking the same as Philip in terms of points total. Wigan and/ or the Shrews could blow up but we can't rely on it. If the Shrews average two points a game from their remaining fixtures that would take them onto 95 points which would require us to amass 36 points from our last 16 games to pip them on goal difference. A huge ask, 12 wins, or 11 wins and 3 draws out of sixteen minimum.

I keep going back to it but perhaps if we hadnt gone to Wigan looking for a point and tried to win it instead, we'd have slightly more wiggle room now.

[DeeCee]

The lack of clean sheets miught come back to bite us in the backside

[Rover_Shaun]

4 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

The odds of Shrewsbury drawing and losing are completely dependent on who they are playing and they have some tricky away ties to come. 

Well DUH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Replace Shrewsbury with the name of any other team in world football Nostradamus ????????

[Pedro]

Attack. Attack. Attack, attack,attack!

[Rover_Shaun]

It took an unbeaten run of 18 games to almost claw back the ground Mowbray lost us at the start of the season. Anything less than an unbeaten run from now on won't hack it.

 

 

[den9112]

Luck can play a big part in the run in ,lots of twists and turns and anyone who as played the game knows how things change when you can see the finishing line, some players  take it on the run were others just change their game altogether and the fear factor kicks,its all down to who handles it best and which way a lot of refereeing decisions go especially in Leauge 1  and we have certainly had our share of luck in the past as well as a few dodgy decisions but at the end of the day the top two sucessful teams will go up automaticly  which will no doubt be deserved whethere  it be a small medieval town team in Salop or ex-premiership winning Blackburn  ......

 

[Bigdoggsteel]

30 minutes ago, Rover_Shaun said:

Well DUH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Replace Shrewsbury with the name of any other team in world football Nostradamus ????????

I was replying to someone who said the odds were always low. Keep up ,numb nuts 

[Blue blood]

a few more thoughts:

1 our goal difference is far superior to Shrewsbury. If we can overtake them or get even with them that will work to our advantage. We only need to catch up with them, not overtake them.

 

2 read Swansea have just lost Fer and Boney for the season. Appreciate not directly linked but does illustrate a couple of key injuries could have a huge effect.

[Rover_Shaun]

44 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I was replying to someone who said the odds were always low. Keep up ,numb nuts 

Abuse, nice point well put

Cheers flower ??

[Butty]

5 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

The odds of Shrewsbury drawing and losing are completely dependent on who they are playing and they have some tricky away ties to come. 

This is one of the most Michael Owen lines I've ever seen on this forum. Not as good as Owens "when Man City don't score, they hardly ever win" but credit where it's due big dog that was decent. 

[Athlete]

Keep an eye on Rotherham coming up on the rails on a cracking run 

[Bigdoggsteel]

26 minutes ago, Butty said:

This is one of the most Michael Owen lines I've ever seen on this forum. Not as good as Owens "when Man City don't score, they hardly ever win" but credit where it's due big dog that was decent. 

If we get more points than wigan and shrewsbury ,we will be promoted.