[Archived] Automatic promotion

[JAL]

Looks like Wigan's next four games are their toughest then it's plain sailing all the way for them.

Shrewsbury looks a comfortable run in whilst Rovers next two are tricky then there's Bristol and Charlton away to come.

All to play for but Rovers must beat Wigan.

[Tom]

Think we have marginally the trickiest run in but all 3 have us have had slip ups against some of the less favoured teams.

I tend to think our biggest enemy is ourselves whilst Shrewsbury may be nervy at home after the managers comments about the crowd.

[Athlete]

Don't write Rotherham off automatic promotion 

[philipl]

So 10 and 17 April are going to be anxious evenings checking the phone every two minutes!

[Bigdoggsteel]

2 hours ago, JAL said:

Looks like Wigan's next four games are their toughest then it's plain sailing all the way for them.

Shrewsbury looks a comfortable run in whilst Rovers next two are tricky then there's Bristol and Charlton away to come.

All to play for but Rovers must beat Wigan.

Ya, I was looking at the run ins. Ours is the most tricky,but you never know. 

[MarkBRFC]

4 hours ago, philipl said:

So 10 and 17 April are going to be anxious evenings checking the phone every two minutes!

I imagine we'll play Doncaster on one of them evenings.

[Waggy76]

2 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Ya, I was looking at the run ins. Ours is the most tricky,but you never know. 

Wigan aside how can it be tricky in this league ???

We are top !

[Roverthechimp]

Scunthorpe could be key ?

[Bigdoggsteel]

1 hour ago, Waggy76 said:

Wigan aside how can it be tricky in this league ???

We are top !

Because we seem to be winning games by the odd goal. Not clear cut 

[Stuart]

3 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Ya, I was looking at the run ins. Ours is the most tricky,but you never know. 

Us and Shrewsbury seem to have a similar run in. Wigan meanwhile have a lot of away games in there. Not sure they travel all that well.

[Bigdoggsteel]

13 minutes ago, Stuart said:

Us and Shrewsbury seem to have a similar run in. Wigan meanwhile have a lot of away games in there. Not sure they travel all that well.

I hope we have promotion wrapped up asap 

[Stuart]

Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

I hope we have promotion wrapped up asap 

Indeed

[Paul]

12 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Ya, I was looking at the run ins. Ours is the most tricky,but you never know. 

I would argue Shrewsbury, Rovers, Wigan in terms of difficulty with Wigan the toughest by some margin. Factoring home and away is tricky, especially with our huge following, so it’s better to stick with the actual opposition.

Rovers and Shrewsbury play the same opposition in 7 out of 12 fixtures. 

Rovers and Wigan have 7 fixtures in common. Wigan have to go to Walsall and Portsmouth where we have just won plus play Scunthorpe and Rotherham who are both in the chase.

To the end of March all three sides have the same number of league fixtures plus Wigan have a cup match. Come April and Wigan have to play at least nine, possibly ten with a replay, matches in the same period Rovers and Shrewsbury play six.

Beating Wigan is essential for us, a real must win game, and hopefully puts us six points clear of them. With such an intense schedule and needing to match both Rovers and Shrewsbury results game for game it’s easy to see how one slip for Wigan could become two or three.

Provided we beat Wigan I think automatic promotion currently looks more likely for ourselves and Shrewsbury. The only real certainty is this will change every week, especially in April!

 

[Bigdoggsteel]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

I would argue Shrewsbury, Rovers, Wigan in terms of difficulty with Wigan the toughest by some margin. Factoring home and away is tricky, especially with our huge following, so it’s better to stick with the actual opposition.

Rovers and Shrewsbury play the same opposition in 7 out of 12 fixtures. 

Rovers and Wigan have 7 fixtures in common. Wigan have to go to Walsall and Portsmouth where we have just won plus play Scunthorpe and Rotherham who are both in the chase.

To the end of March all three sides have the same number of league fixtures plus Wigan have a cup match. Come April and Wigan have to play at least nine, possibly ten with a replay, matches in the same period Rovers and Shrewsbury play six.

Beating Wigan is essential for us, a real must win game, and hopefully puts us six points clear of them. With such an intense schedule and needing to match both Rovers and Shrewsbury results game for game it’s easy to see how one slip for Wigan could become two or three.

Provided we beat Wigan I think automatic promotion currently looks more likely for ourselves and Shrewsbury. The only real certainty is this will change every week, especially in April!

 

I like your thinking!

[AllRoverAsia]

57 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I like your thinking!

Agreed and thanks for the fixture spreadsheet, good work.

[Kamy100]

If Wigan's game tomorrow is cancelled due to the poor weather and they progress in the cup then they are looking at a massive fixture backlog and the scenario off having to play 4 games in the last week of the season to fit in all of their fixtures.

[JHRover]

Worth bearing in mind that both Wigan and Shrewsbury are still involved in cup competitions. Shrewsbury play tonight v Yeovil in the Checkatrade trophy and will probably field a full strength side as they are nearly at Wembley.

In theory that should be an advantage to us as Wigan have a backlog to come along with at least one more big FA Cup game whilst Shrewsbury should get past Yeovil and have a few more games in that competition to fit in.

Unfortunately it hasn't really worked that way as Shrewsbury have more or less kept it going with the same squad and Wigan are still in the driving seat despite mammoth efforts in the FA Cup (unless we attribute that surprise loss to Blackpool last week as them being distracted pre-Man City) So to date the old excuse of 'concentrate on the league, we don't need any cup distractions' is actually proving to be false, as our two rivals are showing it can be done. Hopefully it will catch up with them eventually.

I don't subscribe to the talk of easier run ins at this stage. When there's 4 or 5 games left then it might help to compare fixtures but really when you've 11,12, 13 games to go it doesn't matter. In the end we're going to need to win the bulk of ours irrespective of who they are and really with our squad and form since October then we should be doing. We need to beat Wigan on Sunday at home otherwise they are well and truly in the driving seat to finish above us, whereas if we win it will be a big message sent out.

Rotherham won't become an issue unless we allow them to. They're still effectively 8 points behind us and they've only 36 to play for. That clearly means that if we win 9 from our 12 then Rotherham aren't going to finish above us even if they win 11. When we start dropping points we open the door to them to cut our lead. Keep winning is the answer.

 

[Tom]

I remember last season looking at other teams fixtures (Huddersfield will beat Bristol City and Birmingham you'd think) and in the end teams around us just kept winning.

We need to assume Wigan and Shrewsbury will win all their games (expect Wigan at Ewood) and plan accordingly!

[Paul]

If that’s the case Tom only one plan will do?

[InBlue]

16 hours ago, Waggy76 said:

Wigan aside how can it be tricky in this league ???

We are top !

Yet again delusions of grandeur.

[AggyBlue]

Remaining fixtures can be a bit misleading. 

Opponents from the lower end of the league can be tougher games than playing teams near the top at this time of the season.

 

Look at our results and the teams around us last season

[arbitro]

Assumption is the mother of all @#/? ups. There will be lots of twists and turns, results turning on errors or referees decisions and injuries or suspensions. There will also be teams raising their games as we have seen a few times already this season. I read Jon Whitneys comments late last week when he talked about there being a buzz in training and around the club because Blackburn Rogers were coming to town.

 

[Tom]

40 minutes ago, Paul said:

If that’s the case Tom only one plan will do?

Indeed, maybe not realistic but last season we would have stayed up 9 times out of 10 with our run but other teams didn't let up, we can't assume that our rivals will slow down.

[speeeeeeedie]

7 hours ago, Paul said:

Provided we beat Wigan I think automatic promotion currently looks more likely for ourselves and Shrewsbury. The only real certainty is this will change every week, especially in April!

I agree it's going to be a topsy turvy few months. Each game is a must win for Rovers if automatic promotion is to be guaranteed, but the Wigan game is the must win of the must wins. It will give the team and fans a massive psychological boost.

Rovers are in promotion form, now is time for Mowbray to do his job and keep the players focused.

52 minutes ago, arbitro said:

 I read Jon Whitneys comments late last week when he talked about there being a buzz in training and around the club because Blackburn Rogers were coming to town.

 

Is that Buck's younger brother?

[philipl]

I am sticking with my view that we can afford not to win 4 of the run in fixtures. This now looks a far less daunting win 8 from 12 than the win 11 from 15 since we have won the last three on the bounce.