[Archived] THE BATTLE FOR PROMOTION....WON.

[Parsonblue]

Just now, blueboy3333 said:

It's been said before.  Meanwhile, you just resort to straw men arguments and are incapable/unwilling to acknowledge the potential seriousness of the situation if we don't go up.

If we don't go up we will have to regroup.  Some players will leave of that there is no doubt.  We may well not be as strong next season or, like Shrewsbury, we may surprise people.  Ultimately, the only people who can influence the situation are the players.  If they can get more points than Shrewsbury and Wigan we will go up, if not it we will have to settle for the play-offs.  No amount of despair on here is going to influence the situation one way or another.

[BRFC4EVA]

I mean it doesnt change anything and we need to worry about ourselves first and foremost, but jeez it Shrews dont go up this season, they'll never go up. The amount of luck they have had this season has been ridiculous, they'll never have a season like it. Under the cosh vs scunny, 1-0 down, hit the upright, penalty missed, should have been 2 or 3 down at half time and game over. Yet somehow come back to win. Last week against Walsall, 1-0 up and they hit the post/bar, miss chances to make it 1 each. How many late goals have they scored this season and had pens missed against them?!

 

[bazza]

What worries me is that, despite being top of the league for a few weeks, we are not the best side in the division. Wigan are by far the best and Shrewsbury are better than us. Coming close are Plymouth, Scunthorpe and Rotherham.

Two main reasons;  our defence has been poor all season and we are slow to attack on the break.

The three best sides who deserve automatic promotion are Rovers, Wigan and Shrews.

Now, if Wigan or Shrews finish 3rd, I think they will win promotion. If we finish 3rd I don't think we will be ruthless enough to beat the likes of Plymouth, Rotherham or Scunthorpe. 

[Waggy76]

5 minutes ago, bazza said:

What worries me is that, despite being top of the league for a few weeks, we are not the best side in the division. Wigan are by far the best and Shrewsbury are better than us. Coming close are Plymouth, Scunthorpe and Rotherham.

Two main reasons;  our defence has been poor all season and we are slow to attack on the break.

The three best sides who deserve automatic promotion are Rovers, Wigan and Shrews.

Now, if Wigan or Shrews finish 3rd, I think they will win promotion. If we finish 3rd I don't think we will be ruthless enough to beat the likes of Plymouth, Rotherham or Scunthorpe. 

By your logic we are going to finish 3rd and lose play off .....

 

Thats it season over !

[DE.]

Plymouth, Scunthorpe and Rotherham are absolutely nowhere near us. Rotherham have lost 7 more games than us and Scunthorpe haven't won in five matches. We're 11 points ahead of Rotherham and nearly 20 points ahead of Scunthorpe and Plymouth so you'd need to have a very loose definition of "close" to describe any of those teams like that.

Wigan and Shrewsbury are better at defending than us, but not at attacking. It remains to be seen whether a sound defence or attacking prowess ultimately seals an automatic promotion place. We certainly know which side of the equation we're on.

[47er]

6 hours ago, Parsonblue said:

With Shrewsbury having Northampton (away) and AFC Wimbledon (home) before we play again, I expect us to be four points behind them and the pressure will be on us for the Bradford City game.  Bottom line is that whoever finishes in the top two will fully deserve to do so after 46 games.  If we miss out we can only hope that we can repeat our Play-off success under Kenny.  However, as we know only too well the Rovers and play-offs tend to end in tears - and not in a good way.  Sadly, I suspect today may well prove to be a major turning point.

We can't really call it a turning point when we don't play. In retrospect the turning point may well have been when we bottled it at Ewood against Wigan.

That game rightly terrifies us for the Play-offs too, if that is our fate.

[47er]

Top 3 form over last 10 games:

Wigan---18 points from 10 games

Shrewsbury---22 from 10 games

Rovers----21 from 10 games

Extrapolate to the rest of the season:

Wigan----12 games at 1.8 points per game, 22 points =total of 95

Shrewsbury----10 games at 2.2 points per game, 22 points =total of 96

Rovers----9 games at 2.1 points per game, 19 points =total of 95.

Conclusion-----SCARY!

Caution---this is all based on the doubtful premise that I got the sums right!

[Waggy76]

Just now, 47er said:

Top 3 form over last 10 games:

Wigan---18 points from 10 games

Shrewsbury---22 from 10 games

Rovers----21 from 10 games

Extrapolate to the rest of the season:

Wigan----12 games at 1.8 points per game, 22 points =total of 95

Shrewsbury----10 games at 2.2 points per game, 22 points =total of 96

Rovers----9 games at 2.1 points per game, 19 points =total of 95.

Conclusion-----SCARY!

Caution---this is all based on the doubtful premise that I got the sums right!

And the teams concerned getting the same average per game ! Let us all be honest , if we could predict football matches none of us  would need to work anymore and  all would be very wealthy ! 

The truth is anything can happen and usually does !

[47er]

Its a guide, everyone knows we can't predict the actual outcome. However its also a wake-up call to those who think that if we carry on as we have been doing we will be promoted.

We may actually need to improve from a very high base.

[roversfan99]

1 hour ago, BRFC4EVA said:

I mean it doesnt change anything and we need to worry about ourselves first and foremost, but jeez it Shrews dont go up this season, they'll never go up. The amount of luck they have had this season has been ridiculous, they'll never have a season like it. Under the cosh vs scunny, 1-0 down, hit the upright, penalty missed, should have been 2 or 3 down at half time and game over. Yet somehow come back to win. Last week against Walsall, 1-0 up and they hit the post/bar, miss chances to make it 1 each. How many late goals have they scored this season and had pens missed against them?!

 

Late goals are not lucky, nor are they coincedental. Otherwise Man United are lucky to have won so many Premier League titles.

[RevidgeBlue]

1 hour ago, 47er said:

Its a guide, everyone knows we can't predict the actual outcome. However its also a wake-up call to those who think that if we carry on as we have been doing we will be promoted.

We may actually need to improve from a very high base.

This is why when a lot of people were saying a point against Wigan would be acceptable, I was referring to the match as the must win of all must win games. Everyone seemed to assume that as soon as we hit the front Wigan and Shrewsbury would start slipping up with their games in hand even though they haven't performed like that all season.

I'd say that whilst any one of the top three could implode, the likeliehood is that all three will continue to perform in similar fashion to how they have all season and in very similar manner to each other. Therefore we need to try and perform better than the usual two points per game until the end of the season and hope that that tips the balance. Either way it will probably be exceedingly tight and goal difference could well come into play.

[Stuart]

9 hours ago, Parsonblue said:

The bigger picture is that clubs have good times and bad times.  Good times come and go as do bad times.  We've been going since 1875 and have experienced plenty of ups and downs.  There are no guarantees in football and yet there are some on here who seem to think we have a 'right' to promotion.  Ultimately, the teams who perform with the greatest consistency over 46 games will usually go up.  After 46 games the top two will deserve promotion irrespective of their budgets, size of gates or depth of squads.  If those things decided the promotion places Leeds wouldn't have spent three seasons at this level or Sheffield United six.

Woah! Just how old are you and your mates?

[Atomicrover]

5 hours ago, RevidgeBlue said:

This is why when a lot of people were saying a point against Wigan would be acceptable, I was referring to the match as the must win of all must win games. Everyone seemed to assume that as soon as we hit the front Wigan and Shrewsbury would start slipping up with their games in hand even though they haven't performed like that all season.

I'd say that whilst any one of the top three could implode, the likeliehood is that all three will continue to perform in similar fashion to how they have all season and in very similar manner to each other. Therefore we need to try and perform better than the usual two points per game until the end of the season and hope that that tips the balance. Either way it will probably be exceedingly tight and goal difference could well come into play.

That's my nightmare, imagine the top 3 places being decided by goal difference alone & if that difference was only a single goal....

[philipl]

We have nine games to play.

Which of these nine clubs we are playing (this is all we can affect when all said and done) has a better team man for man than us?

Go for nine wins and if 103 points puts us in third, then just win the next three as well!

 

 

[47er]

5 hours ago, RevidgeBlue said:

This is why when a lot of people were saying a point against Wigan would be acceptable, I was referring to the match as the must win of all must win games. Everyone seemed to assume that as soon as we hit the front Wigan and Shrewsbury would start slipping up with their games in hand even though they haven't performed like that all season.

I'd say that whilst any one of the top three could implode, the likeliehood is that all three will continue to perform in similar fashion to how they have all season and in very similar manner to each other. Therefore we need to try and perform better than the usual two points per game until the end of the season and hope that that tips the balance. Either way it will probably be exceedingly tight and goal difference could well come into play.

Absolutely agree Rev. We have convinced ourselves that the pressure exerted by us occupying top spot will cause the other two clubs to misfire.

Its not looking that way! 

[AllRoverAsia]

3 minutes ago, Atomicrover said:

That's my nightmare, imagine the top 3 places being decided by goal difference alone & if that difference was only a single goal....

No way will Shrews get anywhere near our GD.

Yesterdays debacle may work in our favour by getting Wigan and Shrews to get level or whatever with us on games played, by our next game.

It will give the table a more real world look and go some way to stopping the nonsense of  "points on the board v games played", let's be honest, we choose whichever suits us at any given time.

My feeling is that we are on course to finish 2nd and above Shrews on GD, so get ready for a roller-coaster.

The only way we could finish as Champions is for Wigan to implode. I do not believe that bang average bunch will.

It's a damm shite league so fingers crossed we can escape it.

[philipl]

Wishing Wigan every success in a full blooded bruising FA Cup Quarter Final this afternoon.

It is winnable for them...

So it is another game to play win or draw and gutting disappointment if Southampton beat them.

[FGS5635]

9 minutes ago, philipl said:

Wishing Wigan every success in a full blooded bruising FA Cup Quarter Final this afternoon.

It is winnable for them...

So it is another game to play win or draw and gutting disappointment if Southampton beat them.

I think they stop replays at this round onwards. So ideally we want Wigan to win on penalties after an 120min slugfest in dreadful weather

[Paul]

28 minutes ago, AllRoverAsia said:

No way will Shrews get anywhere near our GD.

Yesterdays debacle may work in our favour by getting Wigan and Shrews to get level or whatever with us on games played, by our next game.

It will give the table a more real world look

This is what I was thinking yesterday. For the next few games, until we play Soutend on April 7th, we will have a game in hand or be level with Shrewsbury on matches played. 

Where we stand at 5.00 that Saturday may be a good indicator of final league positions.

[Derby Blue]

Much snow in the Wigan area? Any chance of the game being postponed if so?

Derby's game today has been called off

[FGS5635]

Just now, Derby Blue said:

Much snow in the Wigan area? Any chance of the game being postponed if so?

Derby's game today has been called off

Not enough to cancel the game unless it snows again

[blueboy3333]

9 hours ago, 47er said:

Top 3 form over last 10 games:

Wigan---18 points from 10 games

Shrewsbury---22 from 10 games

Rovers----21 from 10 games

Extrapolate to the rest of the season:

Wigan----12 games at 1.8 points per game, 22 points =total of 95

Shrewsbury----10 games at 2.2 points per game, 22 points =total of 96

Rovers----9 games at 2.1 points per game, 19 points =total of 95.

Conclusion-----SCARY!

Caution---this is all based on the doubtful premise that I got the sums right!

http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england3

Shrewsbury have only got 20 points from their last 10 games. The way things are panning out it could well be a last day of the season job like last season. The football gods owe us one so hopefully a better outcome this time.

[STFC]

10 hours ago, BRFC4EVA said:

I mean it doesnt change anything and we need to worry about ourselves first and foremost, but jeez it Shrews dont go up this season, they'll never go up. The amount of luck they have had this season has been ridiculous, they'll never have a season like it. Under the cosh vs scunny, 1-0 down, hit the upright, penalty missed, should have been 2 or 3 down at half time and game over. Yet somehow come back to win. Last week against Walsall, 1-0 up and they hit the post/bar, miss chances to make it 1 each. How many late goals have they scored this season and had pens missed against them?!

 

Shrews fan in peace!  First look at your board today after seeing a few of yours on our board!

Thanks to the majority of you for your well reasoned comments about our season so far, but come on BRFC4EVA, your post above is laughable!!  A side doesn’t maintain top 3 all season through luck, as I’m sure you prob really know.  You mention the Scunny and Walsall games, were you at both? Yes Scunny won the first half but they didn’t miss the penalty, it was saved by a good keeper and a good signing in the summer. We bossed the second half and hit the woodwork, so a bit of bad luck there ;). As for the Walsall game, we should have been 4 up at halftime but like so many games recently, we don’t convert good chances.  Walsall were awful but we also hit the post in that match.

Due to an amazing pre season inc a training camp abroad, we are one of, if not the fittest sides in the league and I think you’ll find that has a part to play with late goals.

So come on, a bit of respect from all sides, it’s gonna be a cracking end to the season and we are just enjoying going toe to toe with the two big teams of this league, with incomparable budgets.

 

 

[Parsonblue]

2 hours ago, Stuart said:

Woah! Just how old are you and your mates?

There are times I feel ancient Stuart - particularly when I come on here 

[Stuart]

Just now, Parsonblue said:

There are times I feel ancient Stuart - particularly when I come on here 

Ha. I think you perhaps just need to recognise that you hold a very controversial opinion about the reasons, timing and anything natural about Rovers recent accelerated fall from grace.