[Archived] THE BATTLE FOR PROMOTION....WON.

[DE.]

6 minutes ago, JHRover said:

Shrewsbury have to win their game in hand on us to get above us. That is against Peterborough who are no pushovers. If they do that then they will be 1 point above us but with an inferior goal difference.

They don't play Peterborough for another 7 games though, so chances are the scenario will be entirely different by that point. Hopefully in our favour. Our fixtures leading up to the Shrews v Peterborough game are Bradford (H), MK Dons (A), Southend (H), Bristol Rovers (A) and Peterborough (H). IMV it's not unreasonable to expect us to win all of those. We're at least 20 points ahead of every team in that list. Other than Peterborough all of them are 10th and lower, which considering the quality of this league makes them pretty poor teams. If we have aspirations of automatic promotion I'd say at minimum we require 4 wins from those 5 games. Do that and I think Shrewsbury will be further behind us than just two points when their match against Peterborough comes around. 

[arbitro]

1 hour ago, oldjamfan1 said:

Unless I’m mistaken I thought they had got rid of the double whammy of a red card AND a penalty these days? Outside the box and it might have been a red maybe?

You are correct Andy. The referee has to decide if it was a genuine attempt to play the ball or a cynical denial of a goalscoring opportunity. I thought the referee called it right.

[had.e.nuff]

1 hour ago, DE. said:

They don't play Peterborough for another 7 games though, so chances are the scenario will be entirely different by that point. Hopefully in our favour. Our fixtures leading up to the Shrews v Peterborough game are Bradford (H), MK Dons (A), Southend (H), Bristol Rovers (A) and Peterborough (H). IMV it's not unreasonable to expect us to win all of those. We're at least 20 points ahead of every team in that list. Other than Peterborough all of them are 10th and lower, which considering the quality of this league makes them pretty poor teams. If we have aspirations of automatic promotion I'd say at minimum we require 4 wins from those 5 games. Do that and I think Shrewsbury will be further behind us than just two points when their match against Peterborough comes around. 

Don`t Shrewsbury play 2 games before we play again so we will then have a game in hand on them and hopefully not more than 3 points behind

[DE.]

20 minutes ago, had.e.nuff said:

Don`t Shrewsbury play 2 games before we play again so we will then have a game in hand on them and hopefully not more than 3 points behind

With our game against Gillingham to be played at an indeterminate time I don't know. Either way we have a decent run of fixtures coming up and need to take three points from as many as possible. Winning games will see us over the line, drawing too many could leave us looking at a playoff place. 

[RevidgeBlue]

I think the first team to slip up between us and Shrewsbury could well miss out. If it's the Shrews it puts matters back in our hands and really piles the pressure on them. If it's us it leaves us with a bit of a mountain to climb and needing quite a bit of help off the other two. Wigan have the luxury of probably being able to afford a slip up.

We have to make sure we don't blink first. Once we're ahead it may be that us and Shrews both slip up at some point on the same round of matches but of course that wouldn't be fatal, quite the opposite it would be one more match out of the way.

[lraC]

For those real pessimists amongst us, here is a way of perhaps easing the tension. The bookies haven't caught up with all of this yet, in my opinion, of there isn't enough money going on Shrewsbury, to win their games. As an example on Saturday at half time, they were 14/1 to win the game, granted at 1-0 down. I had a little bet, (not enough on reflection) but a 14/1 win isn't to be sniffed at. I didn't check the in play odds, but I suspect with 5 minutes to play, Wigan would have been around 10/1 to win against Bradford. Imagine that as a double!

Both Wigan and Shrewsbury play midweek and again on Saturday. As I type, the combined odds of them both winning both of their games is a touch under 11/1. Based on how much you are prepared to pay, to feel better before the Bradford game, here is my plan.

I will use £50 as an example of the amount I am prepared to pay. Starting with Northampton V Shrewsbury (6/5), stake the whole lot on that and if you lose, we will still be above them, come the Bradford game. If Shrwesbury win, you will be £60 up and have a pot of £110. Stake the £60 profit on Wigan to win at Walsall (4/6) if Wigan win you have a pot of £150 going into Saturdays games. On Saturday Shrewsbury at home to AFC Wimbledon at 5/6 and Wigan away at Bury are 4/6 which is a double at 3/1. Stake your profit of £100 on that and if that comes in you are £300 up and unhappy with the results. Of course the other way is go £50 on the four results going against us, all on the nose and you would have £550 profit if they all going against us.

As a quick afterthought to this, if Shrewsbury do win tomorrow night and you follow the strategy as above, you cannot lose your original stake. Of course if Shrewsbury don't win, you lose your money, but ease the tension.

[Bigdoggsteel]

10 minutes ago, lraC said:

For those real pessimists amongst us, here is a way of perhaps easing the tension. The bookies haven't caught up with all of this yet, in my opinion, of there isn't enough money going on Shrewsbury, to win their games. As an example on Saturday at half time, they were 14/1 to win the game, granted at 1-0 down. I had a little bet, (not enough on reflection) but a 14/1 win isn't to be sniffed at. I didn't check the in play odds, but I suspect with 5 minutes to play, Wigan would have been around 10/1 to win against Bradford. Imagine that as a double!

Both Wigan and Shrewsbury play midweek and again on Saturday. As I type, the combined odds of them both winning both of their games is a touch under 11/1. Based on how much you are prepared to pay, to feel better before the Bradford game, here is my plan.

I will use £50 as an example of the amount I am prepared to pay. Starting with Northampton V Shrewsbury (6/5), stake the whole lot on that and if you lose, we will still be above them, come the Bradford game. If Walsall win, you will be £60 up and have a pot of £110. Stake the £60 profit on Wigan to win at Walsall (4/6) if Wigan win you have a pot of £150 going into Saturdays games. On Saturday Shrewsbury at home to AFC Wimbledon at 5/6 and Wigan away at Bury are 4/6 which is a double at 3/1. Stake your profit of £100 on that and if that comes in you are £300 up and unhappy with the results. Of course the other way is go £50 on the four results going against us, all on the nose and you would have £550 profit if they all going against us.

I was thinking exactly this earlier. I am going to do likewise 

The club should do the same bet

[lraC]

10 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I was thinking exactly this earlier. I am going to do likewise 

The club should do the same bet

As fans we are fine, but I don't think anyone employed by a club is allowed, although that may only apply to players.

[superniko]

2 hours ago, lraC said:

For those real pessimists amongst us, here is a way of perhaps easing the tension. The bookies haven't caught up with all of this yet, in my opinion, of there isn't enough money going on Shrewsbury, to win their games. As an example on Saturday at half time, they were 14/1 to win the game, granted at 1-0 down. I had a little bet, (not enough on reflection) but a 14/1 win isn't to be sniffed at. I didn't check the in play odds, but I suspect with 5 minutes to play, Wigan would have been around 10/1 to win against Bradford. Imagine that as a double!

Both Wigan and Shrewsbury play midweek and again on Saturday. As I type, the combined odds of them both winning both of their games is a touch under 11/1. Based on how much you are prepared to pay, to feel better before the Bradford game, here is my plan.

I will use £50 as an example of the amount I am prepared to pay. Starting with Northampton V Shrewsbury (6/5), stake the whole lot on that and if you lose, we will still be above them, come the Bradford game. If Shrwesbury win, you will be £60 up and have a pot of £110. Stake the £60 profit on Wigan to win at Walsall (4/6) if Wigan win you have a pot of £150 going into Saturdays games. On Saturday Shrewsbury at home to AFC Wimbledon at 5/6 and Wigan away at Bury are 4/6 which is a double at 3/1. Stake your profit of £100 on that and if that comes in you are £300 up and unhappy with the results. Of course the other way is go £50 on the four results going against us, all on the nose and you would have £550 profit if they all going against us.

As a quick afterthought to this, if Shrewsbury do win tomorrow night and you follow the strategy as above, you cannot lose your original stake. Of course if Shrewsbury don't win, you lose your money, but ease the tension.

It's an emotional hedging strategy. I wouldn't advise it as it isn't very shrewd, but you're just hedging your rovers related emotions.

Saying the bookies haven't caught up on it is total nonsense. They will have multiple traders who price up League 1 alone with a conclusive ratings system.

Truth be told, working in the industry, is that Shrewsbury are not rated highly within bookies ratings (using ELO to calculate alongside asian markets which take millions from professional gamblers every week), this is why they've consistently been far bigger than Wigan and Blackburn all season in the outright markets and continue to be now. 

Obviously bookmakers get it wrong too and Shrewsbury could win the league, i'm just pointing out that the suggestion they haven't caught up with a league they take millions on each season isn't true, and that their prices are no way affected by how much money is going on Shrewsbury.

[lraC]

32 minutes ago, superniko said:

It's an emotional hedging strategy. I wouldn't advise it as it isn't very shrewd, but you're just hedging your rovers related emotions.

Saying the bookies haven't caught up on it is total nonsense. They will have multiple traders who price up League 1 alone with a conclusive ratings system.

Truth be told, working in the industry, is that Shrewsbury are not rated highly within bookies ratings (using ELO to calculate alongside asian markets which take millions from professional gamblers every week), this is why they've consistently been far bigger than Wigan and Blackburn all season in the outright markets and continue to be now. 

Obviously bookmakers get it wrong too and Shrewsbury could win the league, i'm just pointing out that the suggestion they haven't caught up with a league they take millions on each season isn't true, and that their prices are no way affected by how much money is going on Shrewsbury.

I don't for one minute doubt what you are saying and used what I have seen happening to construct that post. As mentioned the 14/1 offered at half time, for Shrewsbury, was good value in my view and I took that. I am by no means a professional punter, I just have my flutter based on what I see, with a bit of knowledge of the game and yes what I have suggested isn't shrewd and is 100% definitely based on my Rovers related emotions. I only suggested this strategy to help calm the nerves of the fans who are feeling that way (I am one) and I will be doing what I have suggested, in the hope that I lose my money.

[Craigyboy]

Hoping that Northampton win on Tuesday by 1 goal to nil then  Walsall to beat Wigan on Wednesday fingers crossed ?

[USABlue]

9 hours ago, markread said:

And there's a bogeyman living under the stairs, Martin. Watch out! If you make a noise when walking past, he'll jump out and grab ya. ?

Cue several more weeks of Rovers fans frightening themselves with stories about Shrewsbury and Wigan. 

If we keep winning, we'll go up. 

COYB. 

Is the bogey man the reason the Father Christmas never showed up?

[Oldgregg86]

0-0 it is then followed by three wins and being fifty quid out of pocket 

[skous18]

Can Bradford actually get relegated. Dont know what game they are playing but theirs last 11 games are L L L L L L D D L L L 

[lraC]

7 hours ago, Oldgregg86 said:

0-0 it is then followed by three wins and being fifty quid out of pocket 

I would settle for that, although you will get 13/2 on the 0-0. 

[BigUts]

On 19/03/2018 at 08:43, oldjamfan1 said:

Unless I’m mistaken I thought they had got rid of the double whammy of a red card AND a penalty these days? Outside the box and it might have been a red maybe?

I believe it's more to do with "intent". No more is there an automatic red card for last man situations. If it's deemed a "deliberate" denial of a goal scoring situation then it's a red. TBF he did try and play the ball.

[JHRover]

A bit of a worry that Shrewsbury play twice before we are next in action. Very much possible that we could be kicking off against Bradford 4 points behind them albeit with a game in hand, leaving zero margin for error.

They have an away tie at Northampton and a home game v Wimbledon. Two sides fighting to stay up but I don't have much confidence in their abilities to keep Shrewsbury at bay. Two sides there that we only collected 5 points from 12 against but have shown themselves over the season to be among the poorest in this league. It did look like Northampton might have enough to climb the table but recent results have dropped them right back in it.

We hold out hope that at least one of them can take something from these games but I won't hold my breath. Generally speaking Shrewsbury and Wigan have been more effective at overcoming the relegation fodder sides this season.

[Bigdoggsteel]

Shrewsbury and Wigan both to win today and tomorrow is 4/1.  Get on it 

[Lancs Rover]

16 hours ago, USABlue said:

Is the bogey man the reason the Father Christmas never showed up?

Nah! He went fishing and caught himself a big, fat one.

[lraC]

1 hour ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Shrewsbury and Wigan both to win today and tomorrow is 4/1.  Get on it 

I have done what I said yesterday and hope to lose. Hope you lose too, not that I have anything against you.  

[JHRover]

Concerned that Mulgrew might be involved in Hungary on the Tuesday before we play Bradford.

No way Mourinho, Ferguson etc. would allow their captain and star player to feature in a pointless international friendly 2 days before a huge league game. They'd probably get the fixtures re-arranged but if not the player wouldn't feature.

[Bigdoggsteel]

38 minutes ago, lraC said:

I have done what I said yesterday and hope to lose. Hope you lose too, not that I have anything against you.  

I really hope I lose 

[Bigdoggsteel]

22 minutes ago, JHRover said:

Concerned that Mulgrew might be involved in Hungary on the Tuesday before we play Bradford.

No way Mourinho, Ferguson etc. would allow their captain and star player to feature in a pointless international friendly 2 days before a huge league game. They'd probably get the fixtures re-arranged but if not the player wouldn't feature.

Mowbray has spoken to Mcleish. Hopefully he will be omitted from the squad for the second game. Makes no sense to make him play twice or even travel for the second game 

[RevidgeBlue]

3 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Shrewsbury and Wigan both to win today and tomorrow is 4/1.  Get on it 

?????

I make it only 12/5. I.e. £10 returns £34.

I started backing Shrewsbury before Saturday's fixtures. Put £20 on and got £55 back. The £35 profit will be rolling up on them tonight at roughly evens. 

Usually I can jinx teams a treat.

[lraC]

19 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

?????

I make it only 12/5. I.e. £10 returns £34.

I started backing Shrewsbury before Saturday's fixtures. Put £20 on and got £55 back. The £35 profit will be rolling up on them tonight at roughly evens. 

Usually I can jinx teams a treat.

I think both have come in a bit, since I backed them. Shrewsbury were 6/5 yesterday and have cone in to evens and Wigan were 4/6 and are now 7/10. That does equate to a 12/5 double like you say, but it may be smarter to go Shrewsbury on the nose tonight and rethink tomorrow if it does come in. Myself and BDS are already on it, I think so we are hoping to lose. If you can jinx teams, can you get a sizeable amount on Shrewsbury being promoted automatically please?