[Archived] THE BATTLE FOR PROMOTION....WON.

[47er]

33 minutes ago, JHRover said:

Keep on working at a minimum of 2 points per game. That's the level we're exceeding at present and is the usual benchmark for promotion. That will get us to 96. That would mean Shrewsbury would need 16 points from 18 to finish above us. Unlikely to happen.

4 wins and a draw from 7 games would probably do it. That's well below what we are currently achieving.

Can't afford to lose more than 2 of the last 7 games imo.

[Oldgregg86]

2 hours ago, Biz said:

To be fair though, the playoffs make it more interesting for everyone - I mean if it was just 3 places, what would be the point of anyone’s games 4th-12th for the final third of the season?

It creates more excitement and opportunities for late surging teams or second chance for those who drop off.

I agree. Everybody knows where they stand in August and it's far more dramatic and entertaining

[Angry_Pirate]

LONG time reader, finally decided to get an account.

Looking at it, we know 6 wins (from 7) to mathematically go up, which is realistically actually 17 points due to a sizable +16GD on Shrews. Looking at their fixtures they look to have 3 gimmes in the form of Bury (H), Blackpool (A) and MK Dons (H) on the final day. Bradford (A), Charlton (H) and Peterborough (H) can wield anywhere from 4-7 points, giving them a points total of minimum 94, high of 97.

Meaning realistic scenario we require 5 wins (or 4 wins 3 draws) to place above them. Perhaps even 3 wins/4 draws will do it. So plenty of reason not to overreact when the eventual draw occurs.

For the record, if this season does end up the way we all want/expect, I personally wish Shrewsbury the best (bar their GK), as they have made this season far more entertaining, eventful and nerve wracking then we would have had otherwise, and arguably actually deserve promotion more than either us or Wigan.

Although, without them having the season they have - we'd be having a promotion party on Saturday...

[BillC]

55 minutes ago, Angry_Pirate said:

LONG time reader, finally decided to get an account.

Looking at it, we know 6 wins (from 7) to mathematically go up, which is realistically actually 17 points due to a sizable +16GD on Shrews. Looking at their fixtures they look to have 3 gimmes in the form of Bury (H), Blackpool (A) and MK Dons (H) on the final day. Bradford (A), Charlton (H) and Peterborough (H) can wield anywhere from 4-7 points, giving them a points total of minimum 94, high of 97.

Meaning realistic scenario we require 5 wins (or 4 wins 3 draws) to place above them. Perhaps even 3 wins/4 draws will do it. So plenty of reason not to overreact when the eventual draw occurs.

For the record, if this season does end up the way we all want/expect, I personally wish Shrewsbury the best (bar their GK), as they have made this season far more entertaining, eventful and nerve wracking then we would have had otherwise, and arguably actually deserve promotion more than either us or Wigan.

Although, without them having the season they have - we'd be having a promotion party on Saturday...

I don't think we will need even that. I expect all 3 front runners to stumble over the final hurdles. A combination of nerves, fatigue and other teams needing points desperately will combine to see a dip in results. If any of the three can maintain the form shown to date then I expect they will go up with something to spare. I think TM did a great job in refreshing our squad in January and it will be Armstrong, Payne along with the returning Lenihan who will see us over the line.

[JHRover]

1 hour ago, Angry_Pirate said:

Looking at it, we know 6 wins (from 7) to mathematically go up, which is realistically actually 17 points due to a sizable +16GD on Shrews. Looking at their fixtures they look to have 3 gimmes in the form of Bury (H), Blackpool (A) and MK Dons (H) on the final day. Bradford (A), Charlton (H) and Peterborough (H) can wield anywhere from 4-7 points, giving them a points total of minimum 94, high of 97.

 

Not so sure I'd class them three as gimmes. Bury at home yes because they're dead and buried and even when playing well are still losing games. Blackpool away and MK Dons home less so. Blackpool have made themselves hard to beat at home recently and still need points to survive, MK Dons I think are a better side than their league position suggests and might still be fighting for survival on the final day. I'd sooner have Southend or Oxford at home than Mk Dons.

[Angry_Pirate]

"Gimmes" was perhaps the wrong choice of word, but based over 40 games so far this season, those are three games i would "expect" them to win, with the other 3 fixtures being ones i'd be hoping for a loss/draw... Like Wigan at Portsmouth last night which i had down as their most challenging fixture left.

I feel if we can head into Peterborough in three games time with 89 points already secured i will be very confident of promotion.

For the record, i predicted we would lose 5 away games this season - Oldham, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Gillingham and Bristol Rovers. Two out of three so far so hoping i'm only 40% correct. 

I for one would love it if we could break 100 points. Amazing to think that someone could finish 3rd on 99 points.

Annoyingly, 22nd placed Barnsley need 17 points from their last 7 games just to match our relegation points total from last season,. surely we can't be that unlucky two years running?

[gumboots]

Yes we can. 

[LDRover]

5 hours ago, renrag said:

Chelsea retained their place, in the second season of the play offs they beat us home and away. I said in an earlier post that two teams from each of the top two divisions contested the first two seasons of play offs, but you are correct it was one from the First Div and three from the Second

I thought boro beat them in the final that year and Chelsea were relegated?

That was some team boro had back then with a young Tony Mowbray alongside Gary Pallister at centre half. In fact, Division 2 as it was back then had some real superstars in it such as Teddy Sheringham at Millwall, Gary McAllister and Mike Newell at Leicester and the magical Steve Archibald at the Rovers!!

[blueboy3333]

5 hours ago, 47er said:

Just saw the reference to Chelsea above so relieved to confirm I hadn't dreamt it!

Pat Nevin ran us ragged as i recall. 

[Darwen Rover 007]

I think we need to be really conscious of the Charlton game... they've had a real resurgence since Bowyer (Lee) took over?! Beating both Plymouth and Rotherham... That said Shrewsbury also playing them... 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Darwen Rover 007 said:

I think we need to be really conscious of the Charlton game... they've had a real resurgence since Bowyer (Lee) took over?! Beating both Plymouth and Rotherham... That said Shrewsbury also playing them... 

I’m conscious of every game but I’m glad we play them later on.

The most important game is always going to be the next one and if we do our job up to that point I think we could be up by then 

[JAL]

How much of an handicap will Samuel prove in this final run in if he can't finish or create chances for others ?

[Bigdoggsteel]

Just now, JAL said:

How much of an handicap will Samuel prove in this final run in if he can't finish or create chances for others ?

A big one. Hoefully it starts happening for him, otherwise Nuttall might be the better option 

[JAL]

Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

A big one. Hoefully it starts happening for him, otherwise Nuttall might be the better option 

Nuttall is worse than Samuel for me.

 

[DeeCee]

Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

A big one. Hoefully it starts happening for him, otherwise Stevie Wonder might be the better option 

Fixed that for you

[JacknOry]

I understand both sides of the story with the playoffs but in a season like this where there have obviously been three massively superior teams, it does seem unfair. Couldn't they implement a rule whereby the playoffs do not happen if third place is X many points away from anyone else?

[Fraserkirky]

Samuel looked like he wanted to come off after the big miss on Monday. Think he will disappear now.

[Paul]

7 hours ago, JAL said:

Nuttall is worse than Samuel for me.

 

If Graham has to come off or is unavailable I'd put Armstrong in his position and rearrange the team accordingly. Neither Nuttall or Samuel are good enough for the bench let alone the first team. There are certain basics a striker needs, ability to hold the ball up, control a pass first time and lay off to midfield - neither are capable of these. It's also useful to have the ability to shoot on target another aspect Nuttall and Samuel both lack. We are always weaker the moment either one steps on to the pitch..

[blueboy3333]

5 hours ago, Fraserkirky said:

Samuel looked like he wanted to come off after the big miss on Monday. Think he will disappear now.

Having him killed is a bit extreme. 

[blueboy3333]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

If Graham has to come off or is unavailable I'd put Armstrong in his position and rearrange the team accordingly. Neither Nuttall or Samuel are good enough for the bench let alone the first team. There are certain basics a striker needs, ability to hold the ball up, control a pass first time and lay off to midfield - neither are capable of these. It's also useful to have the ability to shoot on target another aspect Nuttall and Samuel both lack. We are always weaker the moment either one steps on to the pitch..

Nuttall can't shoot on target? Very harsh considering he's rarely played for the first team and has bagged a load for the U23's. 

[Jim Royle]

9 hours ago, JAL said:

How much of an handicap will Samuel prove in this final run in if he can't finish or create chances for others ?

JAL seems to be missing Nyambe!

[Paul]

11 minutes ago, blueboy3333 said:

Nuttall can't shoot on target? Very harsh considering he's rarely played for the first team and has bagged a load for the U23's. 

Nuttall is one of those players, and we've had a few, who the fans build up as a saviour when times are bad. Given the size of U23 crowds I doubt many had seen Nuttall before his first team debut and what has it amounted to? A couple of early goals. It's always a risky hope and evidence he can't, possibly yet, do the basics at first team level. Have you seen Nuttall in the U23s? I haven't so I can only base my observation on first team appearances.

[blueboy3333]

6 minutes ago, Paul said:

Nuttall is one of those players, and we've had a few, who the fans build up as a saviour when times are bad. Given the size of U23 crowds I doubt many had seen Nuttall before his first team debut and what has it amounted to? A couple of early goals. It's always a risky hope and evidence he can't, possibly yet, do the basics at first team level. Have you seen Nuttall in the U23s? I haven't so I can only base my observation on first team appearances.

You said he can't shoot on target. His goals record suggests he can. As neither of us have seen him at U23 level that's all we have to go on.

Which 1st team appearance made you think he can't shoot straight?

[philipl]

11 hours ago, renrag said:

 

You are right there (senior moment) Boro did go up and Chelsea walked the second division the following season, which ended with the Crystal Palace nightmare

We lost 0-2 to Chelsea at Ewood and 1-4 at Stamford Bridge if I remember correctly.

I went to Stamford Bridge with perhaps 500 other Rovers on that enormous open curve that was the away end. Chelsea went one up after about 12 minutes and we were all looking at each other wondering why we had bothered. At least I was only a couple of tube rides from home.

I suspect Chelsea beat us so easily, they totally underestimated Boro in the final.

With regards to other debates, I'd give Nuttall another chance from the bench over Samuel and play Payne ahead of Antonsson against Southend. 

Most people didn't think we would eke out all 6 points over the Easter weekend. A repeat performance home to Southend and away to Gillingham then not throwing it away against Bristol Rovers and Shrewsbury will have a mountain to climb with no margin for error irrespective of having a game in hand. 9 points would take us to 91 and that alone should inflict severe psychological damage on both Shrewsbury and Wigan.

We will only get there by Mowbray keeping all the lads' feet on the ground. His micro-focus on opponents could well pay off in these nervous closing stages whereas it might have damaged us in some games earlier in the season.

 

 

[Oldgregg86]

Samuel and nuttall sadly don't cut the mustard in this team and certainly not in the championship. If Graham and Armstrong can't play their , there is always Elliot Bennett. He can play there until Raya drops a clanger then he can go in goal for the second half and still probably would have ran more miles than them two. I've seen enough of both to know there not rovers players and that is me writing them off just to clarify.