[Archived] Next season budget already in place

[Bigdoggsteel]

Hopefully this year will have been developmental for our squad. In fairness they were pretty much just lumped together at the start of the season, which probably goes towards explaining our terrible start. A good solid season under their belt, getting to know each other etc can only be positive 

[Dreams of 1995]

  On 18/04/2018 at 09:37, Bigdoggsteel said:

Hopefully this year will have been developmental for our squad. In fairness they were pretty much just lumped together at the start of the season, which probably goes towards explaining our terrible start. A good solid season under their belt, getting to know each other etc can only be positive 

Expand  

Development for who, BDS? Raya and Nyambe are the only young players that have had regular game time. Travis almost got a shot but unfortunately we haven't been in the position to play the younger lads.

As for the teamwork of the squad there will be a lot of outgoings this year also. Plenty of key squad players are going back to their parent clubs and will need replacing. Next season will be another "get to know each other season".

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 18/04/2018 at 09:48, Dreams of 1995 said:

Development for who, BDS? Raya and Nyambe are the only young players that have had regular game time. Travis almost got a shot but unfortunately we haven't been in the position to play the younger lads.

As for the teamwork of the squad there will be a lot of outgoings this year also. Plenty of key squad players are going back to their parent clubs and will need replacing. Next season will be another "get to know each other season".

Expand  

Developmental for the squad as a whole. Have you ever played team sports? The more players play together and get to know each other the better it is. 

I hope we can keep Chapman and Armstrong. Other than them and Antonnson, who else will be going back to their parent clubs?

Some players will leave and will need replacing, but we have a far more consistent and solid base to build on than we have had in years. 

[Dreams of 1995]

  On 18/04/2018 at 10:08, Bigdoggsteel said:

Developmental for the squad as a whole. Have you ever played team sports? The more players play together and get to know each other the better it is. 

I hope we can keep Chapman and Armstrong. Other than them and Antonnson, who else will be going back to their parent clubs?

Some players will leave and will need replacing, but we have a far more consistent and solid base to build on than we have had in years. 

Expand  

That's true enough but the fact remains that the players haven't stayed the same and won't stay the same this year either. We had double figures for incomings and outgoings for roughly 4/5 years now. I can't see it being any different next year.

The only positive is that you'd expect Raya, Mulgrew, Smallwood, Dack and Graham to remain so there is a core there to build around. Although I'm sure the offers put forward for Dack will be hard to resist for any club.

I honestly don't buy this idea that this season can be used as anything other than a warning of what to expect if we perform badly against next year. Character building, maybe, squad development, no. It's a terrible league and we've out performed every team despite having quite an average squad in terms of quality, particularly going forward which is also the area we lose all of our players. Substitute Dack and you seriously lack any real incisive quality. You definitely wouldn't score 80+ goals in the Championship with this line up.

There will be big changes next season and they will have to learn how to play with each other again. Unfortunately I see this going on for this summer and the following summer before any real squad cohesiveness can occur. This barring any sudden reverse back to norm in transfer policy and off loading our better players that is.

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 18/04/2018 at 10:39, Dreams of 1995 said:

That's true enough but the fact remains that the players haven't stayed the same and won't stay the same this year either. We had double figures for incomings and outgoings for roughly 4/5 years now. I can't see it being any different next year.

The only positive is that you'd expect Raya, Mulgrew, Smallwood, Dack and Graham to remain so there is a core there to build around. Although I'm sure the offers put forward for Dack will be hard to resist for any club.

I honestly don't buy this idea that this season can be used as anything other than a warning of what to expect if we perform badly against next year. Character building, maybe, squad development, no. It's a terrible league and we've out performed every team despite having quite an average squad in terms of quality, particularly going forward which is also the area we lose all of our players. Substitute Dack and you seriously lack any real incisive quality. You definitely wouldn't score 80+ goals in the Championship with this line up.

There will be big changes next season and they will have to learn how to play with each other again. Unfortunately I see this going on for this summer and the following summer before any real squad cohesiveness can occur. This barring any sudden reverse back to norm in transfer policy and off loading our better players that is.

Expand  

You can't just brush it off and say playing a full season together and winning a large number of games wont stand to the players. At least 6-7 of the current team will start the first game of next season I bet. You can see that a really good togetherness and team spirit has developed this season. Not just with the players, but between the team and the fans 

Why are you laughing when I asked if you played team sports?  

[Dreams of 1995]

  On 18/04/2018 at 10:58, Bigdoggsteel said:

You can't just brush it off and say playing a full season together and winning a large number of games wont stand to the players. At least 6-7 of the current team will start the first game of next season I bet. You can see that a really good togetherness and team spirit has developed this season. Not just with the players, but between the team and the fans 

Why are you laughing when I asked if you played team sports?  

Expand  

It will help the players-the ones that stay, at least. A large portion of our attackers will leave the club at the end of this season and it will mean the attacking side of our team is back to square one. The defence will, barring the sale of Mulgrew/Lenihan/Raya, remain the same. As a whole, however, the defence has had questions raised about it all season, particularly in the full back position.

There is no doubting that togetherness. I doubt the fans will have the same community spirit next season if we are fighting relegation again though. For some reason it's almost nailed on for some we should mount a promotion challenge next year, as if the previous 5 years never happened. Teams have bounced through the league and it's true that a good campaign in the lower league can see performances raised-see Millwall, Huddersfield, Brighton, Southampton (they did back to back) as evidence of this. I think our circumstances are quite different to theirs though.

It was just a weird question to ask. You don't need to play sports to know that the more you play together, the more you know each other. The fact remains though that a overhaul of the squad will have to happen next season to compete so the idea that this season can be used to gel a first 11 is wrong. I'd argue most of our starting 11 isn't good enough to perform well in the Championship.

[DE.]

I think we could survive in the Championship with the current squad plus decent replacements for those that depart, but I'd say to be properly competitive we'd need to look at first team additions at both full back positions, the entire midfield (if you count Dack as an attacker), and we'd need support for Graham up front as well. So yeah, a lot of potential work.

[neophox]

Oztumer and Marriot may arrive if we are promoted.

[47er]

  On 18/04/2018 at 12:34, DE. said:

I think we could survive in the Championship with the current squad plus decent replacements for those that depart, but I'd say to be properly competitive we'd need to look at first team additions at both full back positions, the entire midfield (if you count Dack as an attacker), and we'd need support for Graham up front as well. So yeah, a lot of potential work.

Expand  

Team's getting old though? Time to graft some youngsters in if transfer money isn't sufficient?

[MarkBRFC]

  On 18/04/2018 at 21:01, neophox said:

Oztumer and Marriot may arrive if we are promoted.

Expand  

Or, they might not..

[DE.]

  On 18/04/2018 at 23:04, 47er said:

Team's getting old though? Time to graft some youngsters in if transfer money isn't sufficient?

Expand  

If the transfer money is't there we won't have much choice, although Mowbray seems loathe to use many of our youth prospects which may not bode well for anybody expecting our youngsters to be blooded.

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 19/04/2018 at 09:32, DE. said:

If the transfer money is't there we won't have much choice, although Mowbray seems loathe to use many of our youth prospects which may not bode well for anybody expecting our youngsters to be blooded.

Expand  

I would be surprised if they didn't get a chance during pre-season 

 

  On 18/04/2018 at 21:01, neophox said:

Oztumer and Marriot may arrive if we are promoted.

Expand  

They would be 2 great additions imo. I would consider that Camp lad at Rochdale too along with Nolan from Shrewsbury

Bit of a left wing one, but I thought John Joe O'Toole looked pretty decent this season for Northampton as well 

[K-Hod]

  On 19/04/2018 at 09:32, DE. said:

If the transfer money is't there we won't have much choice, although Mowbray seems loathe to use many of our youth prospects which may not bode well for anybody expecting our youngsters to be blooded.

Expand  

It's one of my criticisms of Mowbray is this. We've got a great youth setup and some strong players who've acquitted themselves well and their path to the first team seems to be blocked by at times, inferior players.

Tomlinson and Travis have both looked sound when they've played, now they seem to have been banished back to the U23s. (With the latter I assume that's because of his red card).

[oldjamfan1]

  On 19/04/2018 at 09:43, Bigdoggsteel said:

I would be surprised if they didn't get a chance during pre-season 

 

They would be 2 great additions imo. I would consider that Camp lad at Rochdale too along with Nolan from Shrewsbury

Bit of a left wing one, but I thought John Joe O'Toole looked pretty decent this season for Northampton as well 

Expand  

This made me chuckle more than it probably should have done BDS.

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 19/04/2018 at 09:53, oldjamfan1 said:

This made me chuckle more than it probably should have done BDS.

Expand  

 He is very Camp 

Coincidence with the sad news about Dale Winton today. I always found him very funny 

 

[ruggles1995]

I would like to see the following postions incoming next season if we go up -

Keeper (someone that can deal with set pieces)

RB

CAM (another as a backup for dack/alternative

CDM (Evans always injured)

ST x 2 (We only really have graham the others arent good enough)

LM/RM

[RoverCanada]

Just spitballing some potential budget figures:

Our wage bill was £22m last year. I'd guess it's down to ~£15m after relegation clauses and all the player shuffling that happened likely causing a net drop in overall wages. The latter is obviously uncertain given we definitely spent a bit this past summer and held on to more players than expected, but we also dropped Greer, Henley, Lowe, Akpan, Guthrie, Brown, Mahoney, and Steele, most of which were probably on decent Championship wages, in place of players who should be on more reasonable, let's say "upper-tier League One" wages. So our wage bill in League One next year would probably be in the £12-£15m range (obviously depending on Venky's...)

Operating expenditure was down sharply from  £10.7m to £5.9m, but apparently this was largely due to 'one-off charges to Venky's London Limited'. £10-£11m has been more of the norm in that regard, so let's say it's down to £8m in League One, and would be £10m in the Championship.

Our turnover last year, our first without any parachute payments, was £14.9m (£3.3m matchday, £6.7m media, and £4.9m commercial). Our attendance is down about 5%, so matchday is probably about £3m this year. Let's be optimistic and say our matchday returns to £4m in the Championship with the warm glow of a promotion season. We lose out on the Championship solidarity payments dropping to League One (£4.3m + £2.3m distribution). As a quick example, Millwall had £2.8m in League One distributions last year, so that's probably roughly where we are in media income this year (maybe a bit higher). Lets' say back to £7m in the Championship. Commercial revenue... no idea. Maybe down to £4m in League One, £5m in the Championship.

In sum, excluding any player trading, our turnover is probably about £10m in League One, with wages of £13m and operating expenditure of £8m, so a loss of £11m.

In the Championship, our turnover would be £16m, with operating expenditure of £10m. So it depends on the loss Venky's is willing to bankroll. Looking at 16/17 Championship wages, ignoring Aston Villa, Norwich, Newcastle parachute payment fuelled-extravagance, we'd need to spend about £30m to be in the top third. That'd imply a £24m loss (which is par for the course of clubs like Wolves spending like mad and gambling on promotion, and similar to our 12/13, 13/14 'extravagances'). A roughly median wage budget would be £22m, implying a £16m loss. Clubs like Wigan, Brentford and Ipswich spent about £16m, implying a £10m loss. And if we want to slum it, we can spend £9m like Rotherham and Burton and only lose £3m haha.

[JAL]

  On 18/04/2018 at 08:45, Dreams of 1995 said:

Is that what you expect?

 

I think a lot of posters need to temper expectations a little. We were relegated with a weak squad, albeit that would have done enough to survive in any other season. If we get promoted there are certain areas that we have improved in but still lack depth and quality in several key parts of the pitch to compete in that league. Our better players are also getting on in years (Mulgrew and Graham) and you'd expect interest in Dack and Lenihan.

I can't see us bouncing through the leagues personally. I think a mid-low table finish will be a successful season although I wouldn't be surprised to see us, at least for a while, embroiled somewhat in the "relegation battle" group.

Expand  

Yes !

It's a sport you should always be in it to win it.

 

[47er]

If we go up you'd have to expect our better players to seek a pay rise or leave for a better contract. Will Venkys cough up?

[Bigdoggsteel]

I don't see it mentioned here, but I would highly recommend listening to the BRFCS podcast. There is a piece at the end about the accounts, budgets etc. I wouldn't do it justice by quoting it, but I urge you to listen to it. 

[Fraserkirky]

  On 19/04/2018 at 12:22, Bigdoggsteel said:

I don't see it mentioned here, but I would highly recommend listening to the BRFCS podcast. There is a piece at the end about the accounts, budgets etc. I wouldn't do it justice by quoting it, but I urge you to listen to it. 

Expand  

Would like to see the conversation transcript on the finances and pinned in a thread. 

[tomphil]

  On 19/04/2018 at 09:45, K-Hod said:

It's one of my criticisms of Mowbray is this. We've got a great youth setup and some strong players who've acquitted themselves well and their path to the first team seems to be blocked by at times, inferior players.

Tomlinson and Travis have both looked sound when they've played, now they seem to have been banished back to the U23s. (With the latter I assume that's because of his red card).

Expand  

They took gambles on Raya and Nyambe this season and one or two others have had a sniff here and there so next season you'd expect a couple more to be stepped up and involved and to seeif they can hack it.

Zero point in messing about with the likes of that kid from West Brom etc just because they belong to a Prem club.  Coyle brought a few in under similar circumstances who then played little or no involvement but just blocked the way for ours.

Maybe they did it on purpose as they wanted our youngsters to stay together and grow as a group so they just got cheap bods in to fluff out the first team squad in the meantime. Can understand that but now's the time for our own to fill up the squad surely whilst any spare wages are directed to quality not quantity.

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 19/04/2018 at 13:42, tomphil said:

They took gambles on Raya and Nyambe this season and one or two others have had a sniff here and there so next season you'd expect a couple more to be stepped up and involved and to seeif they can hack it.

Zero point in messing about with the likes of that kid from West Brom etc just because they belong to a Prem club.  Coyle brought a few in under similar circumstances who then played little or no involvement but just blocked the way for ours.

Maybe they did it on purpose as they wanted our youngsters to stay together and grow as a group so they just got cheap bods in to fluff out the first team squad in the meantime. Can understand that but now's the time for our own to fill up the squad surely whilst any spare wages are directed to quality not quantity.

Expand  

Our current squad, some of the under 23s and four 5 million pound players(2 wingers, centre mid and a striker). That's promotion right there  

[Fraserkirky]

  On 19/04/2018 at 10:33, ruggles1995 said:

I would like to see the following postions incoming next season if we go up -

Keeper (someone that can deal with set pieces)

RB

CAM (another as a backup for dack/alternative

CDM (Evans always injured)

ST x 2 (We only really have graham the others arent good enough)

LM/RM

Expand  

I think we need a towering centre half, quality centre midfielder and massive striker or two, whilst signing Chapman and Armstrong. 

Nyambe and Travis can fight it out for RB. 

[Exiled in Toronto]

  On 19/04/2018 at 10:52, RoverCanada said:

Just spitballing some potential budget figures:

Our wage bill was £22m last year. I'd guess it's down to ~£15m after relegation clauses and all the player shuffling that happened likely causing a net drop in overall wages. The latter is obviously uncertain given we definitely spent a bit this past summer and held on to more players than expected, but we also dropped Greer, Henley, Lowe, Akpan, Guthrie, Brown, Mahoney, and Steele, most of which were probably on decent Championship wages, in place of players who should be on more reasonable, let's say "upper-tier League One" wages. So our wage bill in League One next year would probably be in the £12-£15m range (obviously depending on Venky's...)

Operating expenditure was down sharply from  £10.7m to £5.9m, but apparently this was largely due to 'one-off charges to Venky's London Limited'. £10-£11m has been more of the norm in that regard, so let's say it's down to £8m in League One, and would be £10m in the Championship.

Our turnover last year, our first without any parachute payments, was £14.9m (£3.3m matchday, £6.7m media, and £4.9m commercial). Our attendance is down about 5%, so matchday is probably about £3m this year. Let's be optimistic and say our matchday returns to £4m in the Championship with the warm glow of a promotion season. We lose out on the Championship solidarity payments dropping to League One (£4.3m + £2.3m distribution). As a quick example, Millwall had £2.8m in League One distributions last year, so that's probably roughly where we are in media income this year (maybe a bit higher). Lets' say back to £7m in the Championship. Commercial revenue... no idea. Maybe down to £4m in League One, £5m in the Championship.

In sum, excluding any player trading, our turnover is probably about £10m in League One, with wages of £13m and operating expenditure of £8m, so a loss of £11m.

In the Championship, our turnover would be £16m, with operating expenditure of £10m. So it depends on the loss Venky's is willing to bankroll. Looking at 16/17 Championship wages, ignoring Aston Villa, Norwich, Newcastle parachute payment fuelled-extravagance, we'd need to spend about £30m to be in the top third. That'd imply a £24m loss (which is par for the course of clubs like Wolves spending like mad and gambling on promotion, and similar to our 12/13, 13/14 'extravagances'). A roughly median wage budget would be £22m, implying a £16m loss. Clubs like Wigan, Brentford and Ipswich spent about £16m, implying a £10m loss. And if we want to slum it, we can spend £9m like Rotherham and Burton and only lose £3m haha.

Expand  

Thanks for that, very thought-provoking. It seems to be completely impossible to break even outside of the Premiership without selling your best players every year. I guess that what Accrington do so it can work to a certain level.