Adam Armstrong

[Ulrich]

If say East spam offered 40m in January then I would snap there hands off. That's a lot of money and we could... 

Actually we should keep him TMs track record with money to spend is not the best. How about we try getting a club agent like wolves? 

[MarkBRFC]

5 hours ago, philipl said:

Nine matches before the window opens.

Anything can happen and in this crazy season and probably will.

The track record of Mrs Desai from years back is that if she doesn't want to sell a player, she is awkward squad and the January window is short enough for her to be out of contact for most if not all of it.

If she thinks Rovers are capable of promotion this season, her valuation of Arma is going to be very different from the way football manager video game algorithms work.

For a start, the %age add on for Newcastle will be the buyer's problem, not her's so far as she is concerned.

January is a difficult window to buy players in. I doubt Armstrong would be released without an immediate replacement and a significant strengthening elsewhere in the squad  plus enough profit for the FFP ceiling problem being pushed back more than the temporary extension granted to all clubs.

So either Rovers drop off the pace dramatically with a Mowbray slump of the kind we are all too familiar with which changes the balance of probabilities calculus,

 or Armstrong continues his scoring spree for someone to decide he is worth a £40m+ punt.

At that price, not many PL clubs are at the races and any club in another country has the problem of him being a third country national.

I am second guessing Venky's so could be completely wrong but in the final analysis they make the decision. Reasonable valuation is reasonable to them, not anyone else.

 

Haha

We're in trouble if we're basing things off what Mrs Desai thinks on a football level.

[SBlue]

5 hours ago, Ulrich said:

If say East spam offered 40m in January then I would snap there hands off. That's a lot of money and we could... 

Actually we should keep him TMs track record with money to spend is not the best. How about we try getting a club agent like wolves? 

You’re literally talking about making a £38m profit on ONE player and in the same sentence saying Mowbray is shite at signings.

[47er]

We absolutely won't get £40M for Arma! He'd have to be scoring regularly in the top Division for that.

He doesn't convert a big enough % of his chances and he wouldn't get anywhere near as many chances in the Premier League as he does now.

And--he takes the penalties don't forget, of which we've had quite a few.

He's a very good striker in the Championship in my opinion.

[Mattyblue]

3 hours ago, MarkBRFC said:

Haha

We're in trouble if we're basing things off what Mrs Desai thinks on a football level.

Can just imagine the tactical brains trust with Balaji and Venkatash as they pore over the latest xG stats.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Mattyblue

[philipl]

3 hours ago, MarkBRFC said:

Haha

We're in trouble if we're basing things off what Mrs Desai thinks on a football level.

She does happen to have 99.98% of the issued share capital in her purse so yes we are based on her judgement.

And thankfully I don't think she listens to Balaji on the subject of Rovers as much as she did...

[Ulrich]

19 minutes ago, S8 & Blue said:

You’re literally talking about making a £38m profit on ONE player and in the same sentence saying Mowbray is shite at signings.

Come now S8, Gally and Brereton have both either not done too well or taken a couple of years to bear fruit. Yes he has signed better players but when armed with millions? Hughes was no different at City, after us. Some managers do better with less... 

[SBlue]

16 minutes ago, Ulrich said:

Come now S8, Gally and Brereton have both either not done too well or taken a couple of years to bear fruit. Yes he has signed better players but when armed with millions? Hughes was no different at City, after us. Some managers do better with less... 

I’d be fairly confident personally, looking at how far the squad has come.

Though we all agreed that 15m for that front 3 is a snip now? ?

[Hoochie Bloochie Mama]

16 minutes ago, S8 & Blue said:

Though we all agreed that 15m for that front 3 is a snip now?

Yes, even when taking into account loss-leaders like BB and SG?

[Hoochie Bloochie Mama]

When Waggott floated the £30m figure, did not say he'd recommend whether we'd sell or not to the owners?  They may just agree with his recommendation. 

[Hoochie Bloochie Mama]

[Ulrich]

1 hour ago, S8 & Blue said:

I’d be fairly confident personally, looking at how far the squad has come.

Though we all agreed that 15m for that front 3 is a snip now? ?

No Armstrong was a snip, no one is giving us 7m for Brereton nor 5m for Gally. 

He has spent serious money twice and..... 

I guess third times the charm and the sun today means blue n white tinted glasses. Would you really be confident of giving him 30m plus to spend? TM seems best when he has to little to splash. 

Enjoy the game today S8 

[Ulrich]

Out of curiosity does he have a release clause? I bloody well hope not. 

Imagine if he and dack went at the end of the year we could have 60-70m lying around. Even if we miss out on promotion this years those funds could easily get us back where we belong. 

[JacknOry]

1 hour ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Ha! Took me a while to find him is so far in front.

[philipl]

Where is Toney?

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

5 hours ago, philipl said:

Where is Toney?

Laid out on the grass.

[bboy]

9 hours ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

I'm going to play devils advocate but that graph says very little. If you take more shots your expected goals will naturally be higher. In fact it was interesting to see T. Dolan doesn't take many shots but usually they are expected to score.

I'd rather see a graph of expected goals Vs goals scored.

 

That said Armstrong is vital to us and he gets himself in places to be able to score

[Ulrich]

There is a J Lowe there as well, so I'm not going to read too much into that chart. ??

He's on his own is Arma, cracking start to the season! 

[EwoodGlory]

7 hours ago, philipl said:

Where is Toney?

He's really good tbf, if we go up I would sign him

[Hoochie Bloochie Mama]

10 hours ago, Ulrich said:

Out of curiosity does he have a release clause? I bloody well hope not. 

Imagine if he and dack went at the end of the year we could have 60-70m lying around. Even if we miss out on promotion this years those funds could easily get us back where we belong. 

Either Mowbray or Waggott was in the press recently saying someone at the club had a 'substantial' sell-on clause inserted when we bought them. I can't remember who it was but think it may have been AA. By 'substantial' I presume they mean 30% or 40%. If so a big chunk of any fee will go to Newcastle. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Hoochie Bloochie Mama

[Ulrich]

I know it's 30% on FM haha. I generally sell him in Jan as he scores loads as a lone AF and I always go up 1st anyway. You can get greenwood on loan LOL. If only. 

We got him cheap, was it 1.8m?  So I'm not going to complain, too much. He's flying at present and let's say he doubles his current tally by the end of the season. He's gotta be worth 30m, so 20m to us. 

That's one hell of a war chest for us, but I do hope we keep him till the end of the season and preferably get him a new contract. If he can smash near enough 30, we will surely make the play offs. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Ulrich

[Hoochie Bloochie Mama]

Just now, Ulrich said:

I know it's 30% on FM haha. 

We got him cheap, was it 1.8m?  So I'm not going to complain, too much. He's flying at present and let's say he doubles his current tally by the end of the season. He's gotta be worth 30m, so 20m to us. 

That's one hell of a war chest for us, but I do hope we keep him till the end of the season and preferably get him a new contract. If he can smash near enough 30, we will surely make the play offs. 

We aren't going to have £60m - £70m from selling him and Dack was the point. Anyway this was the link 

https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/transfer-news/blackburn-rovers-armstrong-waggott-newcastle-19304432

[Ulrich]

Cheers for that ?

Well perhaps not 60-70m but even 40-50m is considerably more then we have ever had in the kitty before. Waggers n Co will be smiling 

Spent wisely that sort of cash could give rovers a serious boost, in all aspects. But you never know, if we keep the pair till season end and both perform, we could sneak a cheeky promotion ??

Edited December 6, 2020 by Ulrich

[bluebruce]

20 hours ago, bboy said:

 

I'd rather see a graph of expected goals Vs goals scored.

Well, that graph was posted before yesterday's game, at which point Arma had 14 goals in 15 games. Which I make 0.9333 goals per game. The graph says he has had about 0.8 expected goals per game.

Not a fan of this newfangled expected goals per game stat though. Feck knows what or who decides if it is 'expected'. 

[roversfan99]

Expected goals is something that I am heavily skeptical of. If a player was given a tap in and missed the ball, would that not register on the expected goals statistic out of interest?