Loan Window

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

3 hours ago, Heinz said:

News doing the rounds we have again made an improved offer for Ben Brereton. From 6m earlier this week to 8m now.

 

https://www.thesun.ie/sport/football/2998074/blackburn-make-improved-8m-offer-for-ben-brereton-after-nottingham-forest-rejected-6m/

thats a hell of a lot of money if you ask me for an unproven player at this level.

Not for me at that price. Walk away.

[JHRover]

It won't be £8 million, just like Rhodes wasn't £8 million. It might be half of that up front with the same again in installments, bonuses, add ons etc. Much of that will probably hinge on us surviving in the Championship, getting to the Premier League or him scoring X amount of goals or playing for England. If any of those happen his value will increase with it and Rovers will benefit by more than £8 million be that through his value increasing or by increased revenues as a club through being at a higher level.

In some ways it is a no brainer. At the age of 19 barring a horrendous injury his value is likely to at the very least stand still and probably increase further over the next 3-4 years by which time he will still only be 22-23 with a lot of Championship experience behind him.

Don't know much about him but I certainly won't be grumbling if the owners finally see sense and invest a substantial amount for a new forward. 

Seems a bit odd that people are so concerned by the prospect of spending such a sum of money when the motive here from the owners is investing now in a talent that ought to be worth more in a few years who they can sell then if they fancy, just like with Dack, Lenihan, Cairney, Duffy etc. They've made plenty out of sales without reinvesting so I think it is well overdue that they spend on a new player or two.

[deryck guyler's spoon]

6 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

There's a reason why " he wouldn't be on that much compared to other strikers in the division". 

Would that reason be because he's 19 and not necessarily reflective of his ability?

 

Let`s get this lad in in before Venkys shares take a nose dive and we`re back to rummaging through the reject bin to pad out squad numbers.

Edited August 17, 2018 by deryck guyler's spoon

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

6 minutes ago, JHRover said:

It won't be £8 million, just like Rhodes wasn't £8 million. It might be half of that up front with the same again in installments, bonuses, add ons etc. Much of that will probably hinge on us surviving in the Championship, getting to the Premier League or him scoring X amount of goals or playing for England. If any of those happen his value will increase with it and Rovers will benefit by more than £8 million be that through his value increasing or by increased revenues as a club through being at a higher level.

In some ways it is a no brainer. At the age of 19 barring a horrendous injury his value is likely to at the very least stand still and probably increase further over the next 3-4 years by which time he will still only be 22-23 with a lot of Championship experience behind him.

Don't know much about him but I certainly won't be grumbling if the owners finally see sense and invest a substantial amount for a new forward. 

Seems a bit odd that people are so concerned by the prospect of spending such a sum of money when the motive here from the owners is investing now in a talent that ought to be worth more in a few years who they can sell then if they fancy, just like with Dack, Lenihan, Cairney, Duffy etc. They've made plenty out of sales without reinvesting so I think it is well overdue that they spend on a new player or two.

I'm not looking at us in a few years time, I'm looking at where we're going to be next May.

[Pedro]

Seems a weird target to me. We were scrabbling around for freebies pretty much 12months ago. Cutting the costs of electric, stewarding, groundkeeping, cleaning and probably even the milk bills...and now throwing £8m at an unproven teenager with a meagre goal return. It could turn out to be a masterstroke but there's a lot riding on it. If it fails, are the V's going to sign off a future key £1m deal in Jan? Unlikely.

All very odd.

[47er]

We still need a centre-back(imo). Is the Chapman deal dead? That McGinn would have been a good buy.

I'd sooner see what money we have spread over several players who are better than we have than take a punt on one young lad.

That's just me but I always felt Mowbray had the same sort of caution. 

This is an exciting time---potentially. I hope we don't blow it.

[RovingRover]

It's quite possible that we'd have an opt-out if he doesn't sufficiently impress during his loan.

I guess the questions we need to ask ourselves is do we trust Tony Mowbray's scouting network? Is BB sufficiently different enough from cheaper other options to warrant the fee?

Remember, Mowbray's network got us Dack. Guess the question is will BB be a Gladwin or a Dack.

[roversfan99]

1 minute ago, RovingRover said:

It's quite possible that we'd have an opt-out if he doesn't sufficiently impress during his loan.

I guess the questions we need to ask ourselves is do we trust Tony Mowbray's scouting network? Is BB sufficiently different enough from cheaper other options to warrant the fee?

Remember, Mowbray's network got us Dack. Guess the question is will BB be a Gladwin or a Dack.

Theres not a chance that the deal would be such a big fee but if we decide before Christmas that we dont fancy it after all, we can send him back and not pay.

It is practically a buy, through the workaround of a loan initially with an obligation to buy in the flawed transfer window.

I don't think the question is do we trust Mowbray's scouting network, which has given mixed results. It is whether we feel that spending such a large fee on one player rather than 3 or 4 is wise, whether the player is worth and what role the player will play, in our personal opinions. 

[tomphil]

6 hours ago, yeti-dog said:

Slight whiff of sour grapes there - you not in the sheep club and want in or something? 

And before you ask, I don't follow Nicko.

Ha ha i'd like to say I saw right through him and stopped following but no he blocked me when Kean was still boss. Do I want in ?  Not on your nelly he'd pretty soon block me again besides chaddy is the middleman for the legions of us Rovers FUDS.

[tomphil]

1 hour ago, Stuart said:

@chaddyrovers £8m just seems way over the top for a player with potential.

It also seems hugely unlikely for us to pay that much and would make us the third highest net spenders in the division after Stoke (£14m) and Forest (£15m - if we buy Brereton from them). Nobody else comes close.

(Source: https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2018&s_w=&leihe=0&intern=0)

The only way this one works is if we sell a player - with Dack being the most obvious.

It makes no sense at the prices being discussed.

I'm not one for trying to spread a million or two around the team for the sake of bodies and end up with a load of average squad men on 10k pwk I think we've seen enough of that here even going back to the Trusts last days.

However 8 million in the hands of a good manager with a real ambition to get promoted could get 3 or 4 good players in or even two quality ones. That argument got banded about enough by the Rhodes knockers so it should still stand.

 

[RovingRover]

30 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Theres not a chance that the deal would be such a big fee but if we decide before Christmas that we dont fancy it after all, we can send him back and not pay.

It is practically a buy, through the workaround of a loan initially with an obligation to buy in the flawed transfer window.

I don't think the question is do we trust Mowbray's scouting network, which has given mixed results. It is whether we feel that spending such a large fee on one player rather than 3 or 4 is wise, whether the player is worth and what role the player will play, in our personal opinions. 

To be fair. I don't think Mowbray's scouting network has given mixed results.

Look at what has been signed and the resale values (excluding academy prospects and loans):

- Bradley Dack - £750,000 - Smash-hit + must be worth closer to £10 million now
- Ben Gladwin - £0-£200,000 - His injury record has been abysmal, if not unpredictable. Will likely depart on a free
- Richie Smallwood - £0 - Mr reliable in CM last season. Excellent squad option. Worth £500,000-£1 million.
- Peter Whittingham - £0 - Everyone expected him to be a stand out signing last season. Alas it hasn't worked for him. No resale value.
- Dominic Samuel - £500,000 - Decent quality League One signing who struggles with consistency. Will easily make his money back with a little profit maybe. £500,000-£1 million resale.
- Paul Caddis - £0 - Squad player, who gave us an okay option for League One. Again will likely depart for free.
- Joe Nuttall - £0 - Excellent prospect going forward. Loan spell might do him some good. Worth at least £500,000.
- Jayson Leutwiler - Undisclosed (reported fee under £100,000) - Solid bench option. I'd suggest worth £100,000-£250,000
- Sam Hart - Undisclosed (minimal fee under £50,000) - Given a few chances. Honestly cannot work out whether he will make it or not. Resale around £50,000.
- Paul Downing - Undisclosed (minimal fee under £100,000) - Decent quality option for CB. Worth around £250,000.
- Amari'i Bell - Undisclosed (around £300,000 fee reported by Sky Sports News) - Has pace and talent. Worth around £500,000 at present.
- Joe Rothwell - Undisclosed (around £200,000 fee paid) - Has plenty of talent and looks like a class signing. Worth around £500,000 in contract.
- Jacob Davenport - Undisclosed (around £500,000 fee paid) - Looks to have plenty of talent and still only young. Worth around what we paid for him at present.
- Adam Armstrong - Undisclosed (around £1.75 according to Mowbray) - Steeped in talent and will be class when settled. Worth around £2m-£3m at present.

The only player out of that list we would make a loss on is Ben Gladwin.

The only players it hasn't really worked out for (bar Gladwin) are players we signed on free transfers.

Of course it is hard to tell how successful Mowbray will be spending larger sums of money.
But the age of his transfer targets for the positions needed to fill are spot-on. It is nice to see fresh players making the move and not just players we had on loan previously. Bar Armstrong and Downing, both of which made sense to sign for the sums being requested.

Edited August 18, 2018 by RovingRover
Spacing issue.

[roversfan99]

Just now, RovingRover said:

To be fair. I don't think Mowbray's scouting network has given mixed results.

Look at what has been signed and the resale values (excluding academy prospects and loans):

- Bradley Dack - £750,000 - Smash-hit + must be worth closer to £10 million now

- Ben Gladwin - £0-£200,000 - His injury record has been abysmal, if not unpredictable. Will likely depart on a free

- Richie Smallwood - £0 - Mr reliable in CM last season. Excellent squad option. Worth £500,000-£1 million.

- Peter Whittingham - £0 - Everyone expected him to be a stand out signing last season. Alas it hasn't worked for him. No resale value.

- Dominic Samuel - £500,000 - Decent quality League One signing who struggles with consistency. Will easily make his money back with a little profit maybe. £500,000-£1 million resale.

- Paul Caddis - £0 - Squad player, who gave us an okay option for League One. Again will likely depart for free.

- Joe Nuttall - £0 - Excellent prospect going forward. Loan spell might do him some good. Worth at least £500,000.

- Jayson Leutwiler - Undisclosed (reported fee under £100,000) - Solid bench option. I'd suggest worth £100,000-£250,000

- Sam Hart - Undisclosed (minimal fee under £50,000) - Given a few chances. Honestly cannot work out whether he will make it or not. Resale around £50,000.

- Paul Downing - Undisclosed (minimal fee under £100,000) - Decent quality option for CB. Worth around £250,000.

- Amari'i Bell - Undisclosed (around £300,000 fee reported by Sky Sports News) - Has pace and talent. Worth around £500,000 at present.

- Joe Rothwell - Undisclosed (around £200,000 fee paid) - Has plenty of talent and looks like a class signing. Worth around £500,000 in contract.
- Jacob Davenport - Undisclosed (around £500,000 fee paid) - Looks to have plenty of talent and still only young. Worth around what we paid for him at present.
- Adam Armstrong - Undisclosed (around £1.75 according to Mowbray) - Steeped in talent and will be class when settled. Worth around £2m-£3m at present.

The only player out of that list we would make a loss on is Ben Gladwin.

The only players it hasn't really worked out for (bar Gladwin) are players we signed on free transfers.

Of course it is hard to tell how successful Mowbray will be spending larger sums of money.
But the age of his transfer targets for the positions needed to fill are spot-on. It is nice to see fresh players making the move and not just players we had on loan previously. Bar Armstrong and Downing, both of which made sense to sign for the sums being requested.

Not sure what you based them figures on. No way wed profit on Samuel and Leutwiler, or get a fee for Sam Hart. Even Armstrong and Rothwell havent gone up in value from when we signed them.

Its all opinion based but if you was to pick our first 11, Dack and Armstrong massively improved it, Smallwood would get in as probably a main weakness. The rest of his signings are either squad players, unneeded players or loan players who have gone back.

[RovingRover]

46 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Not sure what you based them figures on. No way wed profit on Samuel and Leutwiler, or get a fee for Sam Hart. Even Armstrong and Rothwell havent gone up in value from when we signed them.

Its all opinion based but if you was to pick our first 11, Dack and Armstrong massively improved it, Smallwood would get in as probably a main weakness. The rest of his signings are either squad players, unneeded players or loan players who have gone back.

Samuel has proven himself a capable goalscorer and has shaken off injury concerns.

Leutwiler has International football pedigree and has proven himself capable between the sticks over the years.

Sam Hart is still young. Coming from the Liverpool Academy initially would garner a small transfer fee.

Armstrong was purchased on the cheap. Most would recognose that.

Again, Rothwell was relatively inexpensive because of his contract situation. He was playing below his level and under contract would be worth an amount more than we paid.

[dinglebasher]

Those figures are meaningless because of the likely resale value of Dack, Lenihan, Armstrong etc. Something seriously crazy would have to happen for those to fail to make £15 million plus if we sold up. 

We desperately need a talisman up front. Dragging strikers up from League 1 or signing Championship rejects won’t get us promoted. We’ve tried that with Brown / Samuel etc and it doesn’t work. Look at Brereton’s record for the England youth teams - convinced he’ll be quality given the care and attention Mowbray will provide. 

Mowbray has earnt the right to spend £8 million on a striker, but if Brereton fails then Mowbray will be gone. We won’t lose financially because of the quality of the players we’ve either developed or bought for peanuts. The fact we got Dack for £750k is scarcely believable. He’s probably one of the best footballing and financial investments we’ve ever made. 

I understand the anxiety about spending £8 million given the long list of charlatans and jokers we’ve had in charge, but in the context of having an experienced manager who has shown he can organise and motivate a team full of promising youngsters, what exactly is the alternative if we want  to give ourselves a chance of getting to the PL? 

Sometimes you have to take a risk and go for it. This is one of those times, in my opinion. 

[Miker]

I’ve seen a lot of comments about Brereton being inexperienced, but he’s been playing in the Championship on a fairly regular basis with Forest for a season and a half now. The season before last he played against us at just 17. How many players are given regular game time at Championship level at such a young age? 

While his goal scoring record hasn’t been stellar, his general contributions have earned him rave reviews. I’m confident that he will score his share of goals for us and develop into a star player.

I honestly think that Karanka is crazy for considering selling him, but I guess they have gone for broke and signed proven goal scorers to try and get out of this league and don’t have the luxury of helping a young player develop. 

[sparky12]

Shrewd bit of business from Mowbray if you ask me. Same with Armstrong, two England youth internationals, half a decent season for Brereton and the worse we would do is get our money back, look at Conor Whickham, spent the last few years bouncing round for 10-12 million fees. 

[Paul Mani]

7 hours ago, Stuart said:

Odd question. Surely it needs no explanation? How about a couple of players at £4m. Christ, Dack is being touted as the best player outside the PL and he cost less than £1m. Armstrong was £1.2m plus add-ons. £8m is a bloody fortune for us.

Are you telling me we couldn’t find that kind of value anywhere? May as well sack our scouting team if the fans need to put names forward.

As noble as it is, we seem obsessed with British and English players. Other clubs find value overseas yet we do not. There should be a balance. I’ve never known a Rovers squad with so few foreign players. Raya and Nyambe bring the only first team regulars with Leutweiler making up the squad’s foreign players.

??????

7 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

Interesting, because in June you said:

‘Rovers clearly arent willing chuck millions and Millions at Promotion but do it a smarter way less cost way of building a squad with good players. 

Well lets agree on 3 million pounds come from season tickets sales thats 25% percent of our wage budget. Big help to Mowbray signing players. Yes you are right it wouldnt get us signing players at 10 million but I wouldnt want that anyway.’

 

 

Stalker!! Haha - though we could use a man with your skill set to pull all the ‘pessimists’ who said we had no money to spend! (Assuming pessimists is a reasonable description now that it’s ok to call the other group the ‘optimists)

6 hours ago, Stuart said:

What made you change your mind?

Was it when you thought there was no money that you tried to spin it positively and now that there might be money you are trying to spin it positively?

???? sane thing as you pal. Only change ‘positively’ with ‘negatively’ then you’ve cracked it.

[Mattyblue]

Ha, does seem slightly stalker-ish, or I have a rain man memory, but in reality I stumbled across that post when looking for another in the season ticket thread.

Got to hand it to the chadster, he reminds me of a media trained politician trying to spin his way out of a bind after being caught out by Andrew Neil...

Edited August 18, 2018 by Mattyblue

[chaddyrovers]

20 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Ha, does seem slightly stalker-ish, or I have a rain man memory, but in reality I stumbled across that post when looking for another in the season ticket thread.

Got to hand it to the chadster, he reminds me of a media trained politician trying to spin his way out of a bind after being caught out by Andrew Neil...

Very OTT there Matty. Explained why Im happy to spend 8 mil on one player. Why cant you accept that? 

Politician? Haha. No thanks. 

[Wing Wizard Windy Miller]

3 hours ago, Paul Mani said:

??????

Stalker!! Haha - though we could use a man with your skill set to pull all the ‘pessimists’ who said we had no money to spend! (Assuming pessimists is a reasonable description now that it’s ok to call the other group the ‘optimists)

???? sane thing as you pal. Only change ‘positively’ with ‘negatively’ then you’ve cracked it.

Whoah there. You were starting to smell a rat on deadline day! We've still not got anyone over the line with an agreed fee.  Pessimistic until proven wrong.  Which I am sure pessimists everywhere will be only too glad to be.

Must say that £8 million is too much.  If it exists, I'd rather we spread it out a bit.  

 

 

[Stuart]

7 hours ago, tomphil said:

I'm not one for trying to spread a million or two around the team for the sake of bodies and end up with a load of average squad men on 10k pwk I think we've seen enough of that here even going back to the Trusts last days.

However 8 million in the hands of a good manager with a real ambition to get promoted could get 3 or 4 good players in or even two quality ones. That argument got banded about enough by the Rhodes knockers so it should still stand.

Good point. And Rhodes was a prolific goal scorer before he came and a prolific goal scorer while he was here yet still didn’t justify his price tag to many.

Also could you imagine if Venkys had given Neil Warnock £8m instead of signing Coyle on the cheap two years ago?

Nothing they do makes any sense. They are schizophrenic.

Which is why I’ll believe we have £8m when we spend it.

If we spend it all on one player (another prospect) I’ll be even more bemused. He will need to be sold for £15m to be classed as good value in the sell-on stakes - unless we are promoted in the next two years.

[Mattyblue]

I knew you would want to spend it back then, indeed after you said it on that thread I said

‘Yeah right! You'd be swinging from the chandeliers of Chez Chadwick if we signed someone for 10 million!’

 

Which is fair enough and I hope they are still intact the morning. 

So my advice to you would be stop blindingly agreeing with the club’s stance, if you’ve always wanted us to buy players for big money, say so, otherwise you look a bit daft when just two months ago you ‘didn’t want us to pay big money for one player, we should build a squad instead’ now we should DEFINITELY pay £8million for a Championship 19 year old

Edited August 18, 2018 by Mattyblue

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Those of us with long memories can recall managers betting the ranch on other young upcoming stars.  Jimmy Kerr and Steve Agnew anybody ?

Did they play 20 games for us between them ? 

[blueboy3333]

8 hours ago, 47er said:

We still need a centre-back(imo). Is the Chapman deal dead? That McGinn would have been a good buy.

I'd sooner see what money we have spread over several players who are better than we have than take a punt on one young lad.

That's just me but I always felt Mowbray had the same sort of caution. 

This is an exciting time---potentially. I hope we don't blow it.

Mowbray admitted to the same dilemma earlier in the summer. He said he didn't know whether to spread the money around and bring in a few attacking players or splash it all on one striker. Looks like he chose the latter. That said he also wanted Freeman who might have come as well as Brereton.

[blueboy3333]

6 hours ago, RovingRover said:

Samuel has proven himself a capable goalscorer and has shaken off injury concerns.

Leutwiler has International football pedigree and has proven himself capable between the sticks over the years.

Sam Hart is still young. Coming from the Liverpool Academy initially would garner a small transfer fee.

Armstrong was purchased on the cheap. Most would recognose that.

Again, Rothwell was relatively inexpensive because of his contract situation. He was playing below his level and under contract would be worth an amount more than we paid.

Mowbray has been very hit and miss in the transfer market. For every Dack there's been a Gladwin. Samuel at £500k was a very poor piece of business.