Ben Brereton Diaz

[Mattyblue]

Best lock the thread then.

[ben_the_beast]

Personally I'm of the opinion that in normal circumstances we should have sold him in the summer. But it wasn't a normal summer. The entire structure at the club changed and we weren't in a position to make choices backed up by data and a strong business case. Any replacement is a gamble, but any replacement we chose, without the time to due our due dilligence would have seen the risk increase. 

Hindsight is a wondrous thing though. Part of my thinking was that I didn't expect Rovers to be challenging for promotion. The more time that passes, the better the decision to keep him is looking. If we do manage to win promotion, it will have been an inspired choice.

[Dreams of 1995]

12 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Would you have chosen to sell him for £8.4m in the summer or would you have let him run his deal down?

Really difficult to answer

Last season he scored 22 goals - beaten only by £22m Mitrovic and £19m Solanke

He looked every bit a player to rival them, but has since fallen back. Players like Akpom and Piroe show that there are goal scorers out there for cheaper

I don't know how much of the £8m I would have to reinvest. History tells us not much. It would plug a financial hole in that years accounts; mean Venky's have to put in less in that financial year and maybe give us an extra million or so in the following windows

In that case, can I find a 15 goal striker for a couple of million? Knowing that if I don't then my goal scoring threat is Gallagher or Vale

Or, do I take what limited funds I have and try and strengthen in other areas, taking a gamble to go up?

Brereton has been part of a team that sees us in the play off positions so far. The gamble may pay off; the gamble might not. For me, the result is more or less the same, the £8m will not be given to properly "reinvest" and therefore we will be left with whatever funds Venkys sign off in summer for GB / JDT to play with and the cycle begins again

I also don't know whether the £8.4m was a serious bid. He would have been Nice's 10th most expensive signing. They signed Pepe on loan and dropped £10m on another striker. Okay it was reported, but how many teams really just walk away after 1 rejection? Surely you go back for him. And within a week they moved on to a new striker for £10m and signed him. I really don't know the intent was there

12 hours ago, ben_the_beast said:

That theory only makes sense in a closed market. At the end of the day Nice, Fulham, Celta Vigo, the Italian team I can't remember. None of them are getting Brereton for free if he's chosen to go to Villareal. Even if a players contract only has 12 months to run, unless you have a bombproof gentleman's agreement that your club is the only club he wants to go to, you have to pay money to reach the top of the pecking order. 

As much as I have my doubts around his ability to make the step up, £8million for Brereton in todays market is still a steal, regardless of the amount of time left on his contract. 

Should we have sold him in the summer. Maybe. But then it brings me out in a cold sweat that we would have had cash in the bank and maybe splashed up to £5million on George Hirst rather than bringing him in on loan.

I think they thought of it as a steal, threw a bid in for him and when it was rejected quickly moved on. All the while knowing they'd have at least a chance of negotiating on a free, whilst giving him 12 months to see if he could recreate that form

Had Brereton scored another 20 goals this year I do believe a Premier League team would have been in for him. As it stands I don't think that many clubs were prepared to take the risk and make a bid worth considering

[Ulrich]

Disappointed to be losing another player for nothing, seems a trend at Rovers these days.

[roversfan99]

5 hours ago, alex l said:

I accept your point that the signing of Hirst is hypothetical. But then so is the belief that we'd have spent all or any of the £8m.  And had we done, how those signings would have performed and where we'd be. 

What isn't hypothetical is our league position and, despite a poor run of form for a couple of months, BBD is still our top scorer. 

Had he downed tools, been poor all year and we we were 15th I think we'd all agree we should have cashed in. As it stands, I think it's worked out fairly well so far. 

 

1 hour ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

Really difficult to answer

Last season he scored 22 goals - beaten only by £22m Mitrovic and £19m Solanke

He looked every bit a player to rival them, but has since fallen back. Players like Akpom and Piroe show that there are goal scorers out there for cheaper

I don't know how much of the £8m I would have to reinvest. History tells us not much. It would plug a financial hole in that years accounts; mean Venky's have to put in less in that financial year and maybe give us an extra million or so in the following windows

In that case, can I find a 15 goal striker for a couple of million? Knowing that if I don't then my goal scoring threat is Gallagher or Vale

Or, do I take what limited funds I have and try and strengthen in other areas, taking a gamble to go up?

Brereton has been part of a team that sees us in the play off positions so far. The gamble may pay off; the gamble might not. For me, the result is more or less the same, the £8m will not be given to properly "reinvest" and therefore we will be left with whatever funds Venkys sign off in summer for GB / JDT to play with and the cycle begins again

I also don't know whether the £8.4m was a serious bid. He would have been Nice's 10th most expensive signing. They signed Pepe on loan and dropped £10m on another striker. Okay it was reported, but how many teams really just walk away after 1 rejection? Surely you go back for him. And within a week they moved on to a new striker for £10m and signed him. I really don't know the intent was there

I think they thought of it as a steal, threw a bid in for him and when it was rejected quickly moved on. All the while knowing they'd have at least a chance of negotiating on a free, whilst giving him 12 months to see if he could recreate that form

Had Brereton scored another 20 goals this year I do believe a Premier League team would have been in for him. As it stands I don't think that many clubs were prepared to take the risk and make a bid worth considering

I can't fathom this argument that we don't know how much we would be able to spend. Of course, it is dependant on some of those funds at least being reinvested. The Armstrong funds weren't because it needed to be use as a crutch due to the general poor running of the club. 

We obviously can't be that desperate for the money to plug a hole otherwise the owners wouldn't be so stubborn, therefore there would be no excuse not to reinvest some. Sell him for £8m, even if you reinvest £5m (on top of what we had to spend in the summer again to cover our negligence regarding not just player contracts, but moreso the owners being stubborn, any fee for Rothwell could have basically covered our summer spend, and it was reported in the LT last summer that Stoke had interest in Nyambe) it still leaves £3m on top to help with running costs that we now don't have.

I can't look far past the question that is often avoided, whether you would ever consider loaning a player even with the goalscoring threat of Brereton (he is our main goal threat and talk of us being better without him is nonsense) for £8.4m for a solitary season?

Obviously, it would be very difficult to replace Brereton, I don't doubt that, just as it was very difficult for Brentford to replace the likes of Watkins and Benrahma when a fraction of those funds ended up going back into the club. But you have to trust that you can find someone new to polish up, otherwise the process will never work. Brereton for 1 year compared to a new £5m striker for 4 or 5 years is a no brainer, as it is, when Brereton goes we have to then find further money externally if we want to replace him, and you can't keep doing that.

We have had staff members (Tomasson, Broughton, Mowbray) who have regularly talked about polishing up assets, becoming a trading club, comparisons to Brentford etc and obviously none have perfect judgement but I have sensed a desire to work like that for a while and it is the way forward at this level. The owners intervening to turn down bids for players with contracts running down is totally undermining that process and the ability to ever become successful at it. I dread to think where we would be without a first team packed with graduates from a brilliant academy that they inherited.

Regarding Nice moving on from Brereton, if the owners batted off the bid out of hand, it is little wonder.

[K-Hod]

4 hours ago, philipl said:

Do a simple net present value calculation with absolutely known probabilities and Diaz' scoring record and you arrive at the £15m valuation. 

Offers of £8m are no brainers to reject.

There is no debate to be had.

You’re right, there’s no debate to be had, he’s going on a free, so it’s a moot point anyhow.

[smiller14]

If we go up (and it's a big if), then keeping BBD was a fantastic decision as no doubt he will have contributed to our success. If we don't, then the debate rages on. I don't buy that he ever downed tools, even during his leaner period he was still working hard, he just wasn't as clinical or as effective as he was during his wonder season. We don't really know what offers we received in summer; there was a lot of talk but never appeared too concrete. 

He's sadly likely out for tomorrow, which is a big blow for us. I have no doubt that he'll give it his all until May regardless which shirt he'll be wearing in August. 

[rigger]

And if he does, he will leave with my thanks, and all the best for the future.

[roversfan99]

15 minutes ago, smiller14 said:

If we go up (and it's a big if), then keeping BBD was a fantastic decision as no doubt he will have contributed to our success. If we don't, then the debate rages on. I don't buy that he ever downed tools, even during his leaner period he was still working hard, he just wasn't as clinical or as effective as he was during his wonder season. We don't really know what offers we received in summer; there was a lot of talk but never appeared too concrete. 

He's sadly likely out for tomorrow, which is a big blow for us. I have no doubt that he'll give it his all until May regardless which shirt he'll be wearing in August. 

Even if it does work out, it would still have been a gamble that goes totally against the ethos of trying to develop a club that polishes up and trades assets in the hope of at least being somewhat self sustainable.

A club with our resources at Championship level would never dream of loaning a player for over £8m, that is essentially what he has done.

[smiller14]

9 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Even if it does work out, it would still have been a gamble that goes totally against the ethos of trying to develop a club that polishes up and trades assets in the hope of at least being somewhat self sustainable.

A club with our resources at Championship level would never dream of loaning a player for over £8m, that is essentially what he has done.

I think long term it certainly isn't the way to run a sustainable football club, and I hope it isn't repeated in future. I think the issues were that if there were any credible offers, they were so late in the day that it left us without a replacement - we'd started the season well and there was a lot of talk at the time of him being crucial to a promotion push. I hope in future we have much better contingency planning and plan more responsibly, but we were hamstrung by a previous lack of forward planning. 

 

[roversfan99]

9 minutes ago, smiller14 said:

I think long term it certainly isn't the way to run a sustainable football club, and I hope it isn't repeated in future. I think the issues were that if there were any credible offers, they were so late in the day that it left us without a replacement - we'd started the season well and there was a lot of talk at the time of him being crucial to a promotion push. I hope in future we have much better contingency planning and plan more responsibly, but we were hamstrung by a previous lack of forward planning. 

 

The Nice offer was 2 weeks before the deadline so I don't buy that as an excuse personally.

The owners won't change IMO so if a similar situation arises (it is good that we are being proactive with deals but not everyone will willingly renew) I can't see that changing.

[Dreams of 1995]

How much did we actually pay for Brereton?

I don't understand where this idea that we loaned him for £8.4m has come from

What we did was use the full extent of the contract that we agreed to 4 years ago. Which I believe was for £7m if I am right?

 

[rigger]

1 minute ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

How much did we actually pay for Brereton?

I don't understand where this idea that we loaned him for £8.4m has come from

What we did was use the full extent of the contract that we agreed to 4 years ago. Which I believe was for £7m if I am right?

 

I think what is meant is that if we turned down an offer for Brereton of £8.4m, then kept him for one season, with no transfer money at the end of that season. It is comparable to loaning a player for £8.4m for that season.  

[chaddyrovers]

17 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

But its £8.4m more than he will go for this summer. If he played for someone else, would you be happy if we paid that to loan him for a year as a loan fee?

The Hirst hypothetical deal is a totally seperate deal, it isn't a term and condition of selling Brereton.

But keeping BBD has seen us challenging for playoffs and as @Dreams of 1995has said given that GB and JDT had just been appointed that summer and probably hadnt done their proper research and planning who they would replace him with. They took the gamble with keeping BBD and trying to get promote with him. I still think if we achieve Promotion then I think he will stay. 

[Dreams of 1995]

2 hours ago, rigger said:

I think what is meant is that if we turned down an offer for Brereton of £8.4m, then kept him for one season, with no transfer money at the end of that season. It is comparable to loaning a player for £8.4m for that season.  

But that's faulty logic

We didn't agree to loan a player for £8.4m; we simply agreed to honour a contract we signed over 4 years ago

It isn't comparable to loaning a player at all. We made an agreement for a sum "up to" £7m for Brereton. Over 4 years, with an option for another year, that we exercised. So £1.4m a year.

The fact we rejected a bid for £8.4m doesn't mean it is comparable to agreeing to loan him for that year; it means we believed it was worth more to see out the contract we signed in 2018 and then allow him to move on

Edited March 30, 2023 by Dreams of 1995

[roversfan99]

38 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

But keeping BBD has seen us challenging for playoffs and as @Dreams of 1995has said given that GB and JDT had just been appointed that summer and probably hadnt done their proper research and planning who they would replace him with. They took the gamble with keeping BBD and trying to get promote with him. I still think if we achieve Promotion then I think he will stay. 

It wasn't Tomasson and Broughton that decided to reject all offers, infuriatingly like with Rothwell the decision is taken above the managers head at that time.

We as a club in the Championship cannot afford to be taking £8m gambles like that considering we have only spent around double that over 5 years. Or if we do, any talk of becoming like Brentford, polishing up assets, projects etc is all bollocks.

Fabrizio Romano has said that a deal with Villarreal is agreed.

3 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

But that's faulty logic

We didn't agree to loan a player for £8.4m; we simply agreed to honour a contract we signed 4 years ago

It isn't comparable to loaning a player at all. We made an agreement for a sum "up to" £7m for Brereton. Over 4 years, with an option for another year, that we exercised. So £1.4m a year.

The fact we rejected a bid for £8.4m doesn't mean we essentially agreed to loan him for that year; it means we believed it was worth more to see out the contract we signed in 2018 and then allow him to move on

In a literal sense, yes. But there is a clear opportunity cost of £8.4m. Two options, sell for that or let go for free after a year.

[rigger]

3 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

But that's faulty logic

We didn't agree to loan a player for £8.4m; we simply agreed to honour a contract we signed 4 years ago

It isn't comparable to loaning a player at all. We made an agreement for a sum "up to" £7m for Brereton. Over 4 years, with an option for another year, that we exercised. So £1.4m a year.

The fact we rejected a bid for £8.4m doesn't mean we essentially agreed to loan him for that year; it means we believed it was worth more to see out the contract we signed in 2018 and then allow him to move on

You asked for reasoning behind the loan statement, I gave one. If you can't understand my explanation, so be it. At no point have I agreed or disagreed with the merits of the explanation.  

[tomphil]

2 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

But keeping BBD has seen us challenging for playoffs and as @Dreams of 1995has said given that GB and JDT had just been appointed that summer and probably hadnt done their proper research and planning who they would replace him with. They took the gamble with keeping BBD and trying to get promote with him. I still think if we achieve Promotion then I think he will stay. 

Exactly.

There was never any sense in letting him go just to grasp back what was paid for him he's worth far more to the squad even for just one season when we were in with a top 6 shout.

 

[Sweaty Gussets]

4 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Even if it does work out, it would still have been a gamble that goes totally against the ethos of trying to develop a club that polishes up and trades assets in the hope of at least being somewhat self sustainable.

A club with our resources at Championship level would never dream of loaning a player for over £8m, that is essentially what he has done.

I think they messed up by not offering BBD a contract a couple of years ago when he started looking like a footballer. Once he became an International called Diaz it was game over for a Championship club. 

We now have a new regime in place on the football with a DoF in charge of transfers. The remit (project) now seems to be a bit more focussed than under Swag/Tm/Venus days. GB is doing a great job of signing up the young players at the club. 

It's what happens from now that matters. BBD, Lenihan, Nyambe and the rest are history as far as transfer fees go. The past doesn't mean we'll never have a functioning transfer policy that puts the club on a sustainable footing. 

[Dreams of 1995]

2 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

We as a club in the Championship cannot afford to be taking £8m gambles like that considering we have only spent around double that over 5 years.

In a literal sense, yes. But there is a clear opportunity cost of £8.4m. Two options, sell for that or let go for free after a year.

Okay

On the first point: yes we can. As has been shown over the previous 10+ years of this lot owning us. We absolutely can afford to be taking gambles like not selling Brereton. They’ve done it a few times now. What we can “afford” has been pretty constant over the past 5/6 years. Just look at the accounts to see that 

On the second point, I would start by saying if it is “literal sense” it is the only sense 

The contract Rovers signed with Brereton was for 4+1 years at the transfer cost of about £7m. He had one year left of that contract. As to tomphil says there wasn’t much point in recouping about what we paid for him

We paid only what we had decided to pay 5 years ago for a striker that could, and looks like will, be a big part in getting us in the play offs 

I don’t see it any other way. The £8m for him was an irrelevant offer

A case for this would be Lewandowski at Dortmund. They had an offer of £20m from Bayern the season before he joined them on a free. They said no - his worth to them in that season was worth more than that £20m. Did they effectively “loan him“ for £20m? 
Nope. In my eyes they turned down a bad transfer offer

Edited March 30, 2023 by Dreams of 1995

[roversfan99]

55 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

Okay

On the first point: yes we can. As has been shown over the previous 10+ years of this lot owning us. We absolutely can afford to be taking gambles like not selling Brereton. They’ve done it a few times now. What we can “afford” has been pretty constant over the past 5/6 years. Just look at the accounts to see that 

On the second point, I would start by saying if it is “literal sense” it is the only sense 

The contract Rovers signed with Brereton was for 4+1 years at the transfer cost of about £7m. He had one year left of that contract. As to tomphil says there wasn’t much point in recouping about what we paid for him

We paid only what we had decided to pay 5 years ago for a striker that could, and looks like will, be a big part in getting us in the play offs 

I don’t see it any other way. The £8m for him was an irrelevant offer

A case for this would be Lewandowski at Dortmund. They had an offer of £20m from Bayern the season before he joined them on a free. They said no - his worth to them in that season was worth more than that £20m. Did they effectively “loan him“ for £20m? 
Nope. In my eyes they turned down a bad transfer offer

There have been plenty of years in that Venkys ownership that we have either spent nothing and/or made big profits. The way they run the club isn't efficient. £8.4m is a lot to Rovers even if it isnt to Venkys, and it compounds the mismanagement that the question is often dismissed based on the unlikeness of any of that money being reinvested. It should be a continious flow of buying assets, profiting, reinvesting a % as many teams have who have been praised for their approach which led to repeated promotion pushes and eventually Premier League football.

Its not even about recouping what we paid in the past, it is about generating money to allow us to reinvest on a player or players that we can have for a number of seasons. It also provides some scope to offset a small part of any losses, crucial within FFP.

There were 2 choices, either take £8.4m or take a year of Brereton. Even if his amortised value is £1.4m now, it is irrelevant as we were offered £8.4m. The Lewandowski comparison is massively different with Dortmund being a side regularly in the Champions League, not a Championship club losing money every year. But I can't fathom how one year of Brereton firstly is more valuable than the money, considering potential reinvestment benefiting us for years to come aswell. But also the atttude to risk, whereby in the likely scenario probability wise of not being promoted, that we have no money to directly reinvest. Then come the summer, people will inevitably defend the owners because they supposedly cant reinvest due to FFP.

 

[chaddyrovers]

5 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

It wasn't Tomasson and Broughton that decided to reject all offers, infuriatingly like with Rothwell the decision is taken above the managers head at that time.

We had a valuation of BBD and no one met the asking price. No club meet that price. BBD being here has help us get into the top 6 and playoff place. 

5 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

We as a club in the Championship cannot afford to be taking £8m gambles like that considering we have only spent around double that over 5 years. Or if we do, any talk of becoming like Brentford, polishing up assets, projects etc is all bollocks.

I think we can take that gamble on BBD cos he only had 12 months left on his deal. The problem with BBD contract was the fault of Mowbray and Waggott not offering a new contract during the lockdown season/summer. 

 

5 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Fabrizio Romano has said that a deal with Villarreal is agreed.

But nothing announce tho? Maybe waiting to see if we reach PL then he might stay here and play in the PL. 

[Dreams of 1995]

1 hour ago, roversfan99 said:

There have been plenty of years in that Venkys ownership that we have either spent nothing and/or made big profits.

I feel like we are approaching this from two different angles 

You are preaching to the converted about what “should” happen 

I do need you to show me a season that we made big profits though. Plenty is a big word…I actually don’t think there’s been one year we have made a profit under Venkys, let alone big profits 

 

 

[roversfan99]

1 hour ago, chaddyrovers said:

We had a valuation of BBD and no one met the asking price. No club meet that price. BBD being here has help us get into the top 6 and playoff place. 

I think we can take that gamble on BBD cos he only had 12 months left on his deal. The problem with BBD contract was the fault of Mowbray and Waggott not offering a new contract during the lockdown season/summer. 

 

But nothing announce tho? Maybe waiting to see if we reach PL then he might stay here and play in the PL. 

That gamble only becomes worthwhile if we get promoted, not just into the play offs. But even then, I don't feel comfortable in the club making huge short term gambles as opposed to investing as part of a long term approach which allows us to sell at profit and reinvest.

Lots of talk has been about how things have changed this season with the new structure. And yes, we have signed new deals albeit most are recent graduates with minimal or no first team experience. That isn't a criticism but Brereton was beyond that in the summer as were Nyambe, Lenihan and Rothwell, all players who were not as easy to sign to new deals, and that will happen again at times. And for all the good any new staff do, Venkys will still intervene and reject offers regardless of what Broughton and Tomasson want.

Easy to blame Mowbray now he isnt here, and yes, there was definitely scope for a new deal. But even last summer, we could have generated a substantial amount for us as a club and we turned that down.

I don't think you have answered this question. But if Rovers signed on loan a proven Championship forward for a £8.4m loan fee this summer, how would you feel? I would like you to answer this question without going around the houses and avoiding it.

1 hour ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

I feel like we are approaching this from two different angles 

You are preaching to the converted about what “should” happen 

I do need you to show me a season that we made big profits though. Plenty is a big word…I actually don’t think there’s been one year we have made a profit under Venkys, let alone big profits 

 

 

Apologies, I meant solely from transfers. Ie before last season.

[chaddyrovers]

6 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

That gamble only becomes worthwhile if we get promoted, not just into the play offs. But even then, I don't feel comfortable in the club making huge short term gambles as opposed to investing as part of a long term approach which allows us to sell at profit and reinvest.

I think it was right approach and option to keep BBD here

6 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Lots of talk has been about how things have changed this season with the new structure. And yes, we have signed new deals albeit most are recent graduates with minimal or no first team experience. That isn't a criticism but Brereton was beyond that in the summer as were Nyambe, Lenihan and Rothwell, all players who were not as easy to sign to new deals, and that will happen again at times. And for all the good any new staff do, Venkys will still intervene and reject offers regardless of what Broughton and Tomasson want.

Did either JDT or Broughton want to sell?

6 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Easy to blame Mowbray now he isnt here, and yes, there was definitely scope for a new deal

He was Rovers manager at the time. 

6 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

. But even last summer, we could have generated a substantial amount for us as a club and we turned that down.

I don't think you have answered this question. But if Rovers signed on loan a proven Championship forward for a £8.4m loan fee this summer, how would you feel? I would like you to answer this question without going around the houses and avoiding it.

It's am irrelevant question to be honest. We decided to keep BBD cos no one put an offer we deem acceptable and cos he is key player for us. I thought the offers we received were unacceptable based on what previous players were sold for after scoring 20 goals plus at championship level in previous seasons..

Edited March 31, 2023 by chaddyrovers