Mowbray: Stay or go?

[Atko's Engine]

8 hours ago, XLM said:

This can be put very simply. The owners set out goals for the season after a discussion about what can be achieved with the finances available. That's how it works. This season the goal will have been survival, last season the goal was promotion. Mowbray has achieved both of those goals in his only full seasons at the club, fairly comfortably too it must be said.

Judge all you like on the relatively minute detail. It's pointless in this context. The choices he has made have achieved what has been asked of him, so he's earnt the right to continue. If he had a different remit, he may have made different choices. Who the hell knows... Fail to reach the goal next season (or not look like achieving it halfway through) and it's a different story.

If you don't agree with the goal that's set out or TM isn't financed properly, place the blame above Mowbray's head. If the goal isn't met due to tactics, motivation, coaching, whatever else, place the blame on his.

My point in a nutshell, cheers! I'm by no means saying TM is wonderful or ought to be above criticism, far from it; I was hugely disappointed by his selection for the Stoke match (especially given his comments earlier in the week re flooding youth) and that in particular has come back to bite him, much like his comments & failure to sign anyone in January (coupled with loaning out Downing). I also accept some older players appear not to attract as much criticism for their weaknesses as younger ones, though I have no problem with adopting a "tough love approach" to try to help younger players improve their all-around game for the benefit of their careers.

So by all means constructively criticise his actions, his comments / treatment of individual players, his tactics in individual games. But none of this adds up to him being unable to improve us further overall.  It can't be denied that he improved our points per game significantly when he took over from Coyle, got us promoted from L1 with a near record points tally, and will finish this season in mid - lower table with more points than we had when we went down. That's progress year on year in terms of his own individual performance, so for that alone he will get a deserved shot IMO at progressing further next season. 

This season is crucial in the TM project. Too many are waiting for him to slip up to then be able to say "I told you so", which I guess is the lot of all modern professional managers; even Klopp, Guardiola & Poch have come in for criticism from some quarters this season! 

The goal next season has to be to push for promotion, which will need a change in tactics, personnel & style of play. His signings (Rothwell, Armstrong, Brereton, Chapman) hint at attempting to move to a more progressive style in the longer term; there's no guarantees that will succeed of course. I hope he marginalises the likes of Smallwood, Evans and Bennett (and avoids plays 2 CDMs together except in the toughest 1/2 games) and strengthens us at CB, LB, CF and GK thru new signings & promoting youth. A top third finish with a tangible challenge for the playoffs has to be the minimum aim; fail to be in the mix by March and he should not see out the season.

[blueboy3333]

Just now, Atko's Engine said:

So by all means constructively criticise his actions, his comments / treatment of individual players, his tactics in individual games. But none of this adds up to him being unable to improve us further overall.  I

In your opinion. I've seen nothing to suggest he can take us any further and that's the whole point of the argument you are missing. And I'd say its for the very reasons quoted that prove he isn't right for the job. Add in his transfer dealings and the picture gets even more clearer

Edited April 19, 2019 by blueboy3333

[Blue blood]

1 posted a while back a car driving analogy that shows achieving the objective isn't the be all and end all. For brevity's sake if I drive you somewhere on time but had 3 near misses that nearly ended in crashes you wouldn't get back in the car with me. Objective achieved enough said is too simplistic and one we don't use in everyday life. 

 

2 what makes you think he will get the right transfers in? His record is sketchy at best. Bereton, Whittingham, Harper, Hart, Caddis and more - there are zero guarantees the guy will rectify it in the transfer market. At best he has a 50:50 record. Is that what people are trusting in?

 

3 assuming TM does get the right pieces what makes you think he will use them properly? We've consistently had over the last 2 years players played out of position, talented players not being played, favourites playing in poor form, others dropped for only a few mistakes and singled out publicly. Again what of this makes you think TM will improve us with this kind of performance. 

 

I should point out points 2 & 3 are facts. There have been transfer flops. There have been players kept in during horrendous form and others scapegoated. There have been players played out of position. The facts are pretty damning and I really hope TM goes before losing the plot overshadows the positives. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I'd add to that players being put into systems that don't suit their skill set. 

What separates the clubs pushing for promotion in this league from the also rans is being smart in the transfer market. That doesn't just mean spending big, it means getting the pieces that actually fit the spaces in the jigsaw.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Tyrone Shoelaces

[tomphil]

If he'd spent 7 million on a first team player and he'd flopped or 10 million on Assombalonga and 30k pwk and we hadn't got near the play offs he'd be staring down the barrel right now.

One thing the BB deal does is buy him time, next season, next year etc etc - double your money in time etc - only on an average wage etc.

He's a wiley old dawg and now he's changing tack to the old backups line again.  The fact that their might be investment but he won't invest it in the right areas and put pressure on himself and the team could be a big sticking point in our progress as I think he's confident enough in this group and his methods to sustain midtable again with very little help. That worries me but of course it could all be above his head but first and foremost at Ewood it' seems very much back to court favour with and please the owners and the money men.   Fine if you're after them opening the bank vault for players but not so much if it's just self preservation.

It needs them to set down a clear and realistic remit and then for him to act accordingly in the transfer market. Remember we'll be entering season 3 of this mythical 3 year plan laid down by these so called football auditors.  Is it a slow build to promotion or grow a team to sell again ... ?

[DE.]

50 minutes ago, tomphil said:

Remember we'll be entering season 3 of this mythical 3 year plan laid down by these so called football auditors.  Is it a slow build to promotion or grow a team to sell again ... ?

If it's the latter then I think they've got the wrong manager in place. Have any of our young(ish), saleable assets increased in value this season?

Raya - made a number of mistakes and has been publicly criticised by Mowbray, can't see his value having increased

Nyambe - can't get ahead of a utility man in Bennett, been on the bench for huge portions of the season, so probably a decrease in value

Armstrong - possibly a slight uptick in value but I don't think we'd get much more than the £2m or so we paid for him, add in wages and at best we'd probably break even

Rothwell - based on the past few games maybe a slight increase, but again has spent most of the season on the outside looking in

Chapman- yet to play

Bell - can't see too many Championship clubs being interested based on his performances

Brereton - we'd be lucky to sell him for £700k let alone recoup the £7m we paid

Dack - a fairly poor second half of the season means that at best his value has stayed the same, but more likely I'd say it's decreased by a few million at least

Lenihan - injuries and our terrible defensive record means at best another one whose value has probably stayed roughly the same

Travis - a definite uptick

So, really, just Travis, and I'm not sure how much he'd sell for. Maybe £3-4m? Either way if the plan is to make a ton of money increasing the value of our players and selling them on I don't think this season has been much of a success in that regard, as I think we could have sold most of these players for more or the same price at the start of the season.

[Oldgregg86]

3 hours ago, Blue blood said:

posted a while back a car driving analogy that shows achieving the objective isn't the be all and end all. For brevity's sake if I drive you somewhere on time but had 3 near misses that nearly ended in crashes you wouldn't get back in the car with me. Objective achieved enough said is too simplistic and one we don't use in everyday life. 

If Tony was the driver most people would get back in the car after he says in his calm reassuring accent he understands the passengers frustration. You get back in the car and he reverses you all the way home with w few more bumps and near misses. He apologizes and they book him again. 

This time you have kids with you so he is extra careful. He puts the child locks on, seat belt and drives safely round the corner to the Petrol station where he tells the kids to stretch there legs. He forgets all about the kids and drives off.  A passer by sees the crying lost child and picks him up. The kid grows up and gets his own car comes back, with a vengance and a baseball bat and destroys Tony's battered Volvo .

Or maybe not and I've  just started drinking since 11 ?

Edited April 19, 2019 by Oldgregg86

[Stuart]

Question: In the PL era, are former attackers better managers than former defenders?

Attacker: sharper, both reactive and proactive, more liable to take risks, more confident, their reward is a goal?

Midfielder: greater vision, quicker of thought, more adaptable

Defenders: slower, more risk averse, more worries about the opposition than their own strengths, their reward is no goals?

Bowyer = full back

Mowbray = centre back

Berg = centre back

Hughes = striker

Dalglish = striker

Souness = midfielder

Wenger = midfielder

Guardiola = midfielder

Ferguson = striker

Southgate = defender and midfielder

[Oldgregg86]

Eddie howe- defender

It's a good theory but I think it's down to how the individual thinks the game should be played

[SBlue]

Mourinho - translator

Sarri - banker

 

dont think it really matters!

[Oldgregg86]

Pulis and allardyce help your argument though. There is possibly something in it as a generalisation and Howe and alike could be the exception to the rule. You would have to analyse alot of managers from a few leagues to make a good assessment

What we need is Chris Sutton who played both. Although Lincoln fans might disagree

Edited April 19, 2019 by Oldgregg86

[tomphil]

3 hours ago, DE. said:

If it's the latter then I think they've got the wrong manager in place. Have any of our young(ish), saleable assets increased in value this season?

Raya - made a number of mistakes and has been publicly criticised by Mowbray, can't see his value having increased

Nyambe - can't get ahead of a utility man in Bennett, been on the bench for huge portions of the season, so probably a decrease in value

Armstrong - possibly a slight uptick in value but I don't think we'd get much more than the £2m or so we paid for him, add in wages and at best we'd probably break even

Rothwell - based on the past few games maybe a slight increase, but again has spent most of the season on the outside looking in

Chapman- yet to play

Bell - can't see too many Championship clubs being interested based on his performances

Brereton - we'd be lucky to sell him for £700k let alone recoup the £7m we paid

Dack - a fairly poor second half of the season means that at best his value has stayed the same, but more likely I'd say it's decreased by a few million at least

Lenihan - injuries and our terrible defensive record means at best another one whose value has probably stayed roughly the same

Travis - a definite uptick

So, really, just Travis, and I'm not sure how much he'd sell for. Maybe £3-4m? Either way if the plan is to make a ton of money increasing the value of our players and selling them on I don't think this season has been much of a success in that regard, as I think we could have sold most of these players for more or the same price at the start of the season.

Give it another season though and things could look decidedly different.

[Stuart]

25 minutes ago, S8 & Blue said:

Mourinho - translator

Sarri - banker

dont think it really matters!

That is irrelevant to the question.

[Tom]

On 06/04/2019 at 19:41, Tom said:

I think go, I don’t want to start hating him, if he goes now like Bowyer he’ll leave with good faith with the fans and be fondly remembered after taking us as far as he could.

His comments are really starting to grate now and there’s a real lack of honesty coming through 

Every time, every bloody time!

I finally decide it’s time and then we immediately go on a winning run making me look daft 

[Stuart]

Just now, Tom said:

Every time, every bloody time!

I finally decide it’s time and then we immediately go on a winning run making me look daft 

Not sure that you’ve been proven wrong yet, Tom.

We are now in the territory of accepting that he has the Summer transfer window to improve the first team.

Do you have any confidence - at all - that the starting line up in August will be any different (or better, I don’t count Smallwood coming in for Evans) than today’s?

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Stuart said:

Not sure that you’ve been proven wrong yet, Tom.

We are now in the territory of accepting that he has the Summer transfer window to improve the first team.

Do you have any confidence - at all - that the starting line up in August will be any different (or better, I don’t count Smallwood coming in for Evans) than today’s?

It’s a big summer job, the Brereton saga may have scared the owners off having much to spend, we can’t be in a place at the start of next season where Smallwood is even considered.

I just hope we don’t start the summer giving Conway a new deal! 

He’ll get summer but he has to be more ruthless now, he’s done his loyalty bit and some have gone as far as that will take them 

[Atko's Engine]

10 hours ago, blueboy3333 said:

In your opinion. I've seen nothing to suggest he can take us any further and that's the whole point of the argument you are missing. And I'd say its for the very reasons quoted that prove he isn't right for the job. Add in his transfer dealings and the picture gets even more clearer

Yes it's my opinion that he ought to be given the chance to further improve us, but it is supported by the fact that improving the club overall as a whole is precisely what he's done throughout his time here, despite there being many bumps in the road along the way to where we are now.

I started my involvement in this thread stating that I didn't expect many to agree with me, or people to change their minds on the back of my opinion. And so it's proved, which is fine.  One thing is for sure, over the next 3-6 months it'll be interesting to see what he does to put his plans to further develop our club into practise. I'm sure there'll be plenty to discuss!

[blueboy3333]

Just now, Atko's Engine said:

Yes it's my opinion that he ought to be given the chance to further improve us, but it is supported by the fact that improving the club overall as a whole is precisely what he's done throughout his time here, despite there being many bumps in the road along the way to where we are now.

I started my involvement in this thread stating that I didn't expect many to agree with me, or people to change their minds on the back of my opinion. And so it's proved, which is fine.  One thing is for sure, over the next 3-6 months it'll be interesting to see what he does to put his plans to further develop our club into practise. I'm sure there'll be plenty to discuss!

I'm sure it will and its good to discuss it with someone who doesn't resort to straw men because they can't back up their arguments. You're talking @#/? but at least it's reasoned @#/??

[Atko's Engine]

11 hours ago, Blue blood said:

1 posted a while back a car driving analogy that shows achieving the objective isn't the be all and end all. For brevity's sake if I drive you somewhere on time but had 3 near misses that nearly ended in crashes you wouldn't get back in the car with me. Objective achieved enough said is too simplistic and one we don't use in everyday life. 

 

2 what makes you think he will get the right transfers in? His record is sketchy at best. Bereton, Whittingham, Harper, Hart, Caddis and more - there are zero guarantees the guy will rectify it in the transfer market. At best he has a 50:50 record. Is that what people are trusting in?

 

3 assuming TM does get the right pieces what makes you think he will use them properly? We've consistently had over the last 2 years players played out of position, talented players not being played, favourites playing in poor form, others dropped for only a few mistakes and singled out publicly. Again what of this makes you think TM will improve us with this kind of performance. 

 

I should point out points 2 & 3 are facts. There have been transfer flops. There have been players kept in during horrendous form and others scapegoated. There have been players played out of position. The facts are pretty damning and I really hope TM goes before losing the plot overshadows the positives. 

I see what you're driving at (!) with your motoring analogy, though I'm not sure that it transposes well into football management. Managers get judged on results across the season, that's the long & short of it.

The rest of your post I agree is fact, but ignores / glosses over the many positives he's brought. He's galvanised the club, stabilised it, got us looking up instead of down, signed gems as well as flops.

It's not fair to just look at the negatives and say he's not good enough for the next stage based on those.  It's important to have a balanced view of his tenure here; I think overall he has done more good than harm and therefore has earned the right to try to take us on still further.

There's real attacking flare & promise within our squad, which I might add is down to his transfer dealings (Dack, Rothwell, Armstrong, Chapman, and hopefully BB in the longer term).  His job now is to supplement them and find the right style of play to get the best from them.

[XLM]

This is probably the last I'll post on the subject and I'll go back into obscurity for the next 5 years again, but to address a few of the responses...

If the owners wanted promotion at the start of the season and mowbray talked them down from that, then that's still on the owners. They're responsible for the strategy for the club and the target for the manager. That's a basic principle of business. People aren't responsible for what their goals are, they're responsible for achieving them (within reason). Whether they have input in what they are or not.

Also, with us getting so close to being a part of the playoff race up until the end of January and then capitulating up until April doesn't have an impact on the success of this season for me. The goalposts can't be moved and to judge mowbray on what could have been this season is unfair. If we had been in a relegation scrap and come out of the season 15th, it would have been a success and would have been seen as such by most people. To be basically safe by march is a greater success, just we're hardwired as humans to want progress. We're given 5 so we want 6. 

As for whether mowbray can take us to the next level, ie the playoffs, which I believe will be the aim for next season, remains to be seen. I'm sceptical that he can in all truth. He needs to sort out a shockingly poor defensive record for a start. But, he has earnt the right to have a crack at it. He has done everything asked of him exceptionally well.

Put it this way, if your manager asked you to achieve x and you did, and even got beyond that and they turned around and said that because you got so close to y but didn't make it, they're letting you go... Would you think that was reasonable or not?

[blueboy3333]

Nobody knows what Mowbray's target for the season was. Therefore, nobody can say if he's met his target. 

If it was lower-mid table he's succeeded. If it was top 10 he may fail. If it was play-offs he has failed massively. If it was avoid relegation he's smashed it. 

Inventing a target then basing a whole argument around it is just a bit nuts. 

[StubbsUK]

5 hours ago, blueboy3333 said:

Inventing a target then basing a whole argument around it is just a bit nuts. 

You've never worked in software development ... that's exactly how managers work  ?

[CrouchingNunhiddenCucumber]

Just now, StubbsUK said:

You've never worked in software development ... that's exactly how managers work  ?

Software sales is very similar. At my company they spend months creating a target that is so complex that it actively looks to take money out of your pocket. 

[Pedro]

I'm just really frustrated with our approach and selections, especially between Feb and April. We should be in those play off places, I honestly believe that. 

Like the Bowyer era, the tools are there, just not used correctly or set up to play to our own strengths.  The games were there to be won (we had ourselves in countless winning positions) but we invited pressure into our 18yrd box when we are much better on the front foot - strangely, substitutions seemed to be inspired by the clock, rather than tactics. Weak-minded defending and a lack of desire didn't help either - add to that, Downing should never have been shipped out, leaving us with makeshift centrebacks and Magloire.

It also annoys me when you sit back and realise too that Dack and Graham's goal return isn't light years behind Gestede and Rhodes' and SO many goals conceded were mistakes or preventable - the constant chopping and changing and rolling the dice to decide what position certain players would play can't help.  

It's been a massively frustrating season where some terrible management decisions were made along the way and in both transfer windows. I'm sure Mowbray knows it.

[Paul Mani]

Just now, Pedro said:

I'm just really frustrated with our approach and selections, especially between Feb and April. We should be in those play off places, I honestly believe that. 

Like the Bowyer era, the tools are there, just not used correctly or set up to play to our own strengths.  The games were there to be won (we had ourselves in countless winning positions) but we invited pressure into our 18yrd box when we are much better on the front foot - strangely, substitutions seemed to be inspired by the clock, rather than tactics. Weak-minded defending and a lack of desire didn't help either - add to that, Downing should never have been shipped out, leaving us with makeshift centrebacks and Magloire.

It also annoys me when you sit back and realise too that Dack and Graham's goal return isn't light years behind Gestede and Rhodes' and SO many goals conceded were mistakes or preventable - the constant chopping and changing and rolling the dice to decide what position certain players would play can't help.  

It's been a massively frustrating season where some terrible management decisions were made along the way and in both transfer windows. I'm sure Mowbray knows it.

Eh!? Bowyer had Hanley, Duffy, Ollsen, Cairney, Marshall, King, Gestede, Rhodes etc....he MASSIVELY underachieved with a squad that were the envy of the whole league! 

Mowbray doesn’t have that. The end.