Tony Mowbray Discussion

[RevidgeBlue]

3 hours ago, broadsword said:

It's a statistic created by opta. 

EXPECTED GOALS (XG)

EXPECTED GOALS (XG) MEASURES THE QUALITY OF A SHOT BASED ON SEVERAL VARIABLES SUCH AS ASSIST TYPE, SHOT ANGLE AND DISTANCE FROM GOAL, WHETHER IT WAS A HEADED SHOT AND WHETHER IT WAS DEFINED AS A BIG CHANCE.

ADDING UP A PLAYER OR TEAM’S EXPECTED GOALS CAN GIVE US AN INDICATION OF HOW MANY GOALS A PLAYER OR TEAM SHOULD HAVE SCORED ON AVERAGE, GIVEN THE SHOTS THEY HAVE TAKEN

"Whether it was defined as a big chance" you can't use that as a criteria it's completely subjective!

To give it some sort of credibility it'd have to have some form of definition

I.e. not more than ten yards out between the goal posts etc.

Edit: Oops Brian beat me to it.

Edited April 13, 2021 by RevidgeBlue

[Tom]

Oh bloody Nora, Lancs Live now writing filler pieces with xG (and xA....) as the source 

https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/football-news/bradley-dack-injury-impact-return-20375848.amp?__twitter_impression=true

 

[tomphil]

24 minutes ago, arbitro said:

For me personally it's another big lump of the block that used to be my love of football but the idiots have chipped away at it so much there's not much left. I honestly have not read so much bollocks on football related topics in my life. Expected goals, what does it mean, what does it prove, who actually believes in this shite. Winning football matches is all that matters, that is what success is built on but some have lost sight of that in the statistic driven world. It's simple, couldn't be simpler really - score more than your opponents and win the game. 

Still it keeps some people in a job.

It's that sterile now on and off the pitch that games at even championship level are played like chess by some managers. More content with stats and cancelling out some bog standard opposition right back than working on their own teams strengths to have a real go at winning.

The game is going to be overloaded by backroom staff it doesn't really need but has to have because everyone else is doing it.

What happened to real entertainment on the pitch and players as well as fans looking like they enjoy it ?

[Mattyblue]

‘His injury probably makes this meaningless ‘

Some way to open an article, that. 🤨

And generally the standard of writing in the rest of it, thought I was reading a Facebook post on TheRovers, not something from (presumably) a qualified journalist...

[Oldgregg86]

27 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

"Whether it was defined as a big chance" you can't use that as a criteria it's completely subjective!

To give it some sort of credibility it'd have to have some form of definition

I.e. not more than ten yards out between the goal posts etc.

Edit: Oops Brian beat me to it.

You could have the exact same outcome I.e ten yards out , proffered foot etc but put shearer and brereton in the same position and I’d expect the former to maybe do a little better

[Ewood Ace]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

Oh bloody Nora, Lancs Live now writing filler pieces with xG (and xA....) as the source 

https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/football-news/bradley-dack-injury-impact-return-20375848.amp?__twitter_impression=true

 

Terrible website the standard of the articles written about Rovers on there makes the LT's look like they were written by Brian Glanville.

[Boz]

I have noted a number of comments by these analysts who seem to want to come to ToMo's aid by using their laptops to come up with various statistics that might back him up, they also seem to get quite defensive when challenged. It's as if they might be fearing the gravy train might about to be leaving the station.

I heard ToMo speak a couple of years ago, when he was giving his thoughts on having twenty or so of these young lads analysing data to help with identifying potential signings. It all sounded fantastic, although at the time I did consider whether this was to be used as a tool in addition to good old fashioned scouting by football folk who knew or understood the game, rather than some pasty slightly chubby kid who had been in his bedroom too long playing FIFA.

It seems that these analytics types might have had even more of a say on using technology in other aspects too, looking at possession stats as a yard stick to performance, rather than footballing folk who have played the game lifting their heads out their laptops to see with their own eyes what is actually going on the grass.

[arbitro]

50 minutes ago, tomphil said:

It's that sterile now on and off the pitch that games at even championship level are played like chess by some managers. More content with stats and cancelling out some bog standard opposition right back than working on their own teams strengths to have a real go at winning.

The game is going to be overloaded by backroom staff it doesn't really need but has to have because everyone else is doing it.

What happened to real entertainment on the pitch and players as well as fans looking like they enjoy it ?

All this innovations would be far more palatable if they improved the product and helped to win matches. In 2000 the Select Group of referees came into being with the advent of full time, professional referees followed by Select Group 2 in 2017 who mainly operate on the Championship. They have access to sports psychologists, fitness coaches, referee coaches and pretty much the best of everything. Has anybody noticed a discernable difference in the standard of refereeing to justify the huge expenditure? If anything I believe the standard is worse. That's just how I view all these new fangled ideas which cost a fortune just as (I believe) the standard of entertainment is regressing as we are insulted by managers who have an excuse for everything.

[windymiller7]

xG = If my Auntie had bollocks..........

As a manger you know what players you have (or need), you know how you play and you play to these strengths. If you're a team that likes to play on the counter attack, you'll probably have a low xG, but what you do is make sure that the guy up front getting these chances is ruthless. You don't care about the expected number of goals, just that if you get a chance, or half chance, it'll end up in the back of the net. It doesn't matter whether or not it was a 'high quality' chance, or whatever bullshit phrase they use for it.

All this seems to show here is that we should be scoring goals but aren't - unless I'm missing something, isn't this is bad?

[broadsword]

"Yorath beasted us in training with an old-school regime of hill running and intense stamina sessions, all designed to see how far he could push us and what we were made of. We ran up and down terraces, up hill and down dale, always to the point of exhaustion. He was pushing us to the limits. Trust me, sports science was the last thing Taff had in mind but to me his methods were spot on. Modern-day football is full of sports scientists and statistical experts, but I have yet to see an energy drink or a Prozone reading that helps you win a 50–50 challenge. Taff was spot on with his methods and I had no problem with his approach because, when the pain kicks in, you discover who has the courage and strength to kick on and who is lacking in those qualities. There is definitely a place for that kind of training and it was an intelligent way to suss out the squad in the first few weeks. One day he made us do ten hill runs and, by the ninth, we were at the point of dropping, but at least we could see an end to it. ‘Right,’ he said when we had completed the tenth, ‘I want another three’. There were one or two who couldn’t hack it while others tried manfully but were by now out on their feet. It was his way of figuring out who would be able to dig deep in the battles to come and those who would fold when the going got tough."

 

Andy Morrison, the good, the mad and the ugly. Really good read. 

 

How would our lads get on with that training right now? 

Edited April 13, 2021 by broadsword

[den]

1 hour ago, arbitro said:

For me personally it's another big lump of the block that used to be my love of football but the idiots have chipped away at it so much there's not much left. I honestly have not read so much bollocks on football related topics in my life. Expected goals, what does it mean, what does it prove, who actually believes in this shite. Winning football matches is all that matters, that is what success is built on but some have lost sight of that in the statistic driven world. It's simple, couldn't be simpler really - score more than your opponents and win the game. 

Still it keeps some people in a job.

Hmmm, yeah Arbitro.

I much preferred the days when all the talk was about the players - how brilliant they were, how poor they’d been. 
 

Nowadays, with Rovers, it’s anything but. It’s about the owners, the manager. They dominate discussion and none of it is in a good way. That’s for them, between themselves, to ask why and do something about it.

While things are this way, success on the field will be nigh impossible.

[windymiller7]

2 minutes ago, broadsword said:

"Yorath beasted us in training with an old-school regime of hill running and intense stamina sessions, all designed to see how far he could push us and what we were made of. We ran up and down terraces, up hill and down dale, always to the point of exhaustion. He was pushing us to the limits. Trust me, sports science was the last thing Taff had in mind but to me his methods were spot on. Modern-day football is full of sports scientists and statistical experts, but I have yet to see an energy drink or a Prozone reading that helps you win a 50–50 challenge. Taff was spot on with his methods and I had no problem with his approach because, when the pain kicks in, you discover who has the courage and strength to kick on and who is lacking in those qualities. There is definitely a place for that kind of training and it was an intelligent way to suss out the squad in the first few weeks. One day he made us do ten hill runs and, by the ninth, we were at the point of dropping, but at least we could see an end to it. ‘Right,’ he said when we had completed the tenth, ‘I want another three’. There were one or two who couldn’t hack it while others tried manfully but were by now out on their feet. It was his way of figuring out who would be able to dig deep in the battles to come and those who would fold when the going got tough."

 

Andy Morrison, the good, the mad and the ugly. Really good read. 

 

How would our lads get on with that training right now? 

"I'm tired boss. I've played 2 full 90 minutes this month"

[broadsword]

"and I did an expected goal last week in training. Go easy on me, I've got to get home for my reality TV show episode" 

Edited April 13, 2021 by broadsword

[broadsword]

2 hours ago, den said:

 

While things are this way, success on the field will be nigh impossible.

You'd imagine that it would only be a matter of time before we get relegated again.

[Herbie6590]

Why xG is flawed & pointless

https://shewore.com/2018/10/09/xgs-why-it-is-flawed-and-pointless/

[TimmyJimmy]

So xG is a measure of failure?

The higher the score the worse you did?

Cool. No hiding place then. We're shit and we know how to measure it to prove it.

[RoversClitheroe]

48 minutes ago, Herbie6590 said:

Why xG is flawed & pointless

https://shewore.com/2018/10/09/xgs-why-it-is-flawed-and-pointless/

This is what I've said to both twitter analysts Watson and the other bloke.

But they literally bang on about it so much

[Angry_Pirate]

This shit fucks me off.

LAST SUMMER was the pivotal summer... and he well and truly flopped. No, bye.

The "give him the next window" mindset is going to take us back to L1.

Dino Tony has had EIGHT windows already and has been stealing a living since we went 2-0 up away to Brentford in 2019.

[DeeCee]

XG, expected goals! What has this fooking game evolved into? I really do despair 🙄

[tomphil]

First seaon back in the Championship after one season out.

We need to follow the Sheff Utd model, we are 2 years behind Preston...

I need 3 or 4 windows to build a squad to get out of this league...

We need to do it like Sheff Utd, i need the summer defenders are coming..

We need to transition to possession if we want to get into the top spots. We need to follow the Swansea model and dominate the ball.

We are 5 years behind Brentford we need to follow their model, even though iv'e sold them Raya for a few million and signing Gallagher with the proceeds. Him and Ben are our future.

We need a new pitch we can'[t play our game on it.

We need a new training ground to follow the Brentford model.

The statistical approach like Barnsley might be the way to go here.

We might be only be winning 1 in 15 but we are topping possession every week. We need to dominate possession and be like Swansea.....

Just a small collection of his pearllers over the last few years, arse and elbow spring to mind. In a similar amount of time the likes of Dyche & Wilder set out a plan, used their budgets wisely. Stuck to a style and got promoted.

Nee chance in hell of that with this mon.

[simongarnerisgod]

harrison reed needs to learn the position,on the excellent little midfielder being shuffled out wide so he can benefit  from the ability and wisdom of corry evans and richie smallwood

in the mowbray scale of ridiculous quotes,the above is by far the best example of why he should be placed in the ejector seat😲

[Ulrich]

5 hours ago, windymiller7 said:

"I'm tired boss. I've played 2 full 90 minutes this month"

It's not about fitness, it is all about recovery. Sport science has excelled other sports, fact but not football, why?

[davulsukur]

1 hour ago, RoversClitheroe said:

This is what I've said to both twitter analysts Watson and the other bloke.

But they literally bang on about it so much

I said similar previously that the quality of the player isn't taken into account.

BB and Gallagher aren't expected to score no matter how many shots they have.

It's bullshit.

[Stuart]

2 hours ago, Angry_Pirate said:

This shit fucks me off.

LAST SUMMER was the pivotal summer... and he well and truly flopped. No, bye.

The "give him the next window" mindset is going to take us back to L1.

Dino Tony has had EIGHT windows already and has been stealing a living since we went 2-0 up away to Brentford in 2019.

At this point Rich Sharpe is simply a cheerleader for Rovers.

As long as Mowbray wears the badge he’s in. As soon as he leaves it will be a different story.

You expect this from fans, the complete disregard for facts in favour of self-delusion. You don’t expect it from someone whose job it is to “get to the facts”. The exact reason journalists sign up in the first place. Truth and holding people to account.

Then they get a job and a mortgage and they “toe the line”. I blame the editor more than Sharpe but what a way to sell out to ‘the man’.

Noblesse oblige is dead.

[Banzai]

11 hours ago, broadsword said:

It's a statistic created by opta. 

EXPECTED GOALS (XG)

EXPECTED GOALS (XG) MEASURES THE QUALITY OF A SHOT BASED ON SEVERAL VARIABLES SUCH AS ASSIST TYPE, SHOT ANGLE AND DISTANCE FROM GOAL, WHETHER IT WAS A HEADED SHOT AND WHETHER IT WAS DEFINED AS A BIG CHANCE.

ADDING UP A PLAYER OR TEAM’S EXPECTED GOALS CAN GIVE US AN INDICATION OF HOW MANY GOALS A PLAYER OR TEAM SHOULD HAVE SCORED ON AVERAGE, GIVEN THE SHOTS THEY HAVE TAKEN

Is there an expected goals against?

I was just thinking back to the recent Norwich game where a lot of people seem to think that it was an amazing performance against the top team. But my memory is that we should have easily lost by at least 2 clear goals based on clear cut chances.

Expected Norwich 4-2 Expected Rovers would have been a fairer reflection and so Zero Expected points.

Edited April 13, 2021 by Banzai