January transfer window 2020

[Bigdoggsteel]

Just now, JoeH said:

Only two of those have come through this year, and both have started one game between them. Does Lenihan count as ours? Didn't he come from elsewhere at a younger age?

Belvedere when he was 15. 

The 5 of them have spent a lot of time at the club. Could easily have 25 million worth of talent there between the 5 of them 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Belvedere when he was 15. 

The 5 of them have spent a lot of time at the club. Could easily have 25 million worth of talent there between the 5 of them 

My point is that JRC showed at Sheffield Wednesday he had the goods, and when Rothwell went off injured on Tuesday, he didn't have the balls to bring him on. Benno instead.

It's that mentality that will hold us back. Travis got 4/5 starts, and never looked back. We need to provide ALL of our good young prospects with these chances. When we had no left-backs Downing filled in and did okay, fine, but he could've just as easily brought up Thompson or Sam Hart and given them just 3/4 starts to prove themselves. One in four manage to do it  like Travis and you've got yourself a great, functioning system.

I'd sooner see:

Hilton over Leutwiler
JRC over Benno
Thompson over Bell

On the bench etc...

Edited January 30, 2020 by JoeH

[TheKitGuy]

41 minutes ago, JoeH said:

Do they? Name some good young Manchester United players out on loan... Biggest load of crap ever. It's all a facade.

If that Williams lad can get into that United team and look good, Thompson would be just fine. Rovers Under 23's a division above United's and that Williams hasn't been playing anywhere but their youth team. What a completely uneducated response!

Rovers Under 23's are literally the fifth/sixth best youth team in the country. The whole ideology that has seemingly been incorporated into the fan base as well, that these young players aren't all that much is a load of crap. There's about five in that team that within a few years could be as big as Travis is now for us, if not bigger.

Just look at Derby with Jayden Bogle... they've got a top quality Academy. Since Travis (who was stumbled upon due to injuries) we've produced bot all from our academy, and the output is there - we're just not utilising it.

 

That was this season. 4-0. Can guarantee that the Spurs Academy will produce three or four England player by 2030, and we'll waste our talents and not give them first team chances... but clearly as shown by the countless times we beat teams like this - we have better young players than them.

What makes their defence & goalkeeper any better than ours? Nothing at all. But you can guarantee "Brooklyn Lyons-Foster of Tottenham Hotspur will the next big thing in a few years and Lewis Thompson will still be sat in our 23's, or on the bench, or released.

I see your point and understand what you're getting at.. 

I'll raise you players that have gone through United's academy in recent times..

 

Frazier Campbell, Danny Drinkwater, Corry and Johnny Evans, Tom Cleverly, Fosu-Mensah, Tom Heaton, Adnan Januzaj, Michael Keane, Josh King, Tom Lawrence, Jesse Lingard, Paddy McNair, Scott McTominay, Oliver Norwood, Anthony Pilkington, Andreas Pereira, Gerard Pique, Paul Pogba, Marcus Rashford and Ryan Shawcross to name a few that you might recognise.. 

 

All of these players above have played Premier League and are solid players and barely played for United either. Could you name me that sort of calibre of players that have left rovers and gone on and done that? 

 

It's a proven fact that United have a better success rate of helping youngsters make the grade. 

[Guest]

Just now, TheKitGuy said:

All of these players above have played Premier League and are solid players and barely played for United either. Could you name me that sort of calibre of players that have left rovers and gone on and done that? 

It's a proven fact that United have a better success rate of helping youngsters make the grade. 

I agree.... we agree on that. United produce WAYYYY more top talents than us. I'm suggesting that's not simply because they have better players, it's because we're not utilising our academy players like they have/do. They're a division below us and producing Mason Greenwood, we're a division above and producing barely anything. Scary stuff.

Young players develop rapidly and randomly, and if you don't set them loose when they're ready, that little snippet of potential can be lost forever if left untapped.

Edited January 30, 2020 by JoeH

[Bigdoggsteel]

1 minute ago, JoeH said:

My point is that JRC showed at Sheffield Wednesday he had the goods, and when Rothwell went off injured on Tuesday, he didn't have the balls to bring him on. Benno instead.

It's that mentality that will hold us back. Travis got 4/5 starts, and never looked back. We need to provide ALL of our good young prospects with these chances. When we had no left-backs Downing filled in and did okay, fine, but he could've just as easily brought up Thompson or Sam Hart and given them just 3/4 starts to prove themselves. One in four manage to do it  like Travis and you've got yourself a great, functioning system.

I'd sooner see:

Hilton over Leutwiler
JRC over Benno
Thompson over Bell

On the bench etc...

Ya, he didn't trust JRC , which was wrong. It worked out though and we got the result, luckily enough.  I suspect he isn't far away from a start though. 

[Guest]

Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

Ya, he didn't trust JRC , which was wrong. It worked out though and we got the result, luckily enough.  I suspect he isn't far away from a start though. 

I hope so.

[TheKitGuy]

1 minute ago, JoeH said:

I agree.... we agree on that. United produce WAYYYY more top talents than us. I'm suggesting that's not simply because they have better players, it's because we're not utilising our academy players like they have/do. They're a division below us and producing Mason Greenwood, we're a division above and producing barely anything. Scary stuff.

Young players develop rapidly and randomly, and if you don't set them loose when they're ready, that little snippet of potential can be lost forever if left untapped.

That's because of the catchment and the pull of United... Like I said earlier a 10yr old Mason Greenwood is going to say yes to United over Rovers and that's a fact. 

[Wegerleswiggle]

12 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Belvedere when he was 15. 

The 5 of them have spent a lot of time at the club. Could easily have 25 million worth of talent there between the 5 of them 

Nyambe is worth £25million himself! 

[Guest]

Just now, TheKitGuy said:

That's because of the catchment and the pull of United... Like I said earlier a 10yr old Mason Greenwood is going to say yes to United over Rovers and that's a fact. 

If Manchester United had a better pull than us, or Derby County, or Brighton & Hove Albion, they wouldn't be a division below these teams. Mason Greenwood isn't the only example, but how can a team of players be a league below and go on to be better.... mismanagement and perception.

Blackburn Rovers First Team is clearly < Manchester United First Team
But
Blackburn Rovers Youth Team is clearly > Manchester United Youth Team

One club promotes its youth players with a clear strategy, uses the loan system well and has a healthy environment for younger players to grow into the first team squad, the other doesn't. That's it. 

[Gone to seed]

Please can we have some ''transfer news"?

[DE.]

34 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I don't see why some lump him in with BB. Not comparable. 

I think it's just that they both cost a lot of money (relative to what we normally pay) and neither have delivered in the way we would have wanted.

Agree that their situations are wildly different though. BB not only more expensive in fee but can't even get into the squad most weeks and looks utterly bereft of confidence, to the point where he doesn't even seem to be trying when he's on the pitch.

Gallagher meanwhile has been disappointing but being played out wide repeatedly obviously doesn't help when it's clearly not his favoured position or even a position his attributes lend themselves to. Just stupidity and stubbornness from TM on that one I'm afraid. At least SG is in the squad though, usually first team, and has contributed albeit not at the levels we would have hoped for considering the fee and likely considerable wages. 

[Mattyblue]

It doesn’t matter what ‘League’ U23 teams are in, it’s non competitive football made up of youngsters of differing ages and senior pros out of favour/coming back from injury who are often de-motivated.

It’s all about those 2,3 players in a crop that can make it. United’s 2 or 3 will usually be of a better standard than ours as they can cherry pick the region/country/world’s top talent whilst we try and polish up bigger club’s cast offs and whatever is left when those club’s have had their fill.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Mattyblue

[rickard]

1 hour ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

2014 not too bad

 

2012 on the other hand... 

[Paul Mani]

4 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

It doesn’t matter what ‘League’ U23 teams are in, it’s non competitive football made up of youngsters of differing ages and senior pros out of favour/coming back from injury who are often de-motivated.

It’s all about those 2,3 players in a crop that can make it. United’s 2 or 3 will usually be of a better standard than ours as they can cherry pick the region/country/world’s top talent whilst we try and polish up bigger club’s cast offs and whatever is left when those club’s have had their fill.

? 

[Paul Mani]

41 minutes ago, JoeH said:

If Manchester United had a better pull than us, or Derby County, or Brighton & Hove Albion, they wouldn't be a division below these teams. Mason Greenwood isn't the only example, but how can a team of players be a league below and go on to be better.... mismanagement and perception.

Blackburn Rovers First Team is clearly < Manchester United First Team
But
Blackburn Rovers Youth Team is clearly > Manchester United Youth Team

One club promotes its youth players with a clear strategy, uses the loan system well and has a healthy environment for younger players to grow into the first team squad, the other doesn't. That's it. 

I’m lost for words Joe. Genuinely.

[RoverCanada]

Thought this could help elucidate the FFP 'consequences' of the Brereton+Gallagher transfers, to focus everyone's minds a bit (and I was just curious myself!)

Quick reminder: for the sake of a club's profit + loss accounts, a player transferred in is treated as an 'intangible asset', which is amortised over the course of its 'useful life' like any other asset, e.g. a piece of machinery. For a footballer, that is determined by the length of the contract they sign. So a player purchased for £2m and signing a 4-year contract has an 'accounting' cost of £500k/year for 4-years, even if the 'cashflow' cost may be £2m in the year he's transferred.

Parameters: Brereton was transferred for £6m in January 2019 and signed to a 3.5 year contract. Annual amortisation: £1.71m. Gallagher was transferred for £5m in July 2019 and signed a 4-year contract. Annual amortisation: £1.5m.

I've simply assumed Brereton's wage is £7k/week (£364k/year) and Gallagher is on £20k/week (£1.04m/year). Obviously purely guess work, that would have to include NI, etc etc... but just to have a 'reasonable' number for the sake of scale.

I wanted to see how these costs actually fall within all our 3-year FFP windows. Also, for sake of 'scale', I've compared the total amortisation and wage costs for the two to a rough estimate of our annual turnover (£16m/year, assumed to be static but may rise a bit over the years), FFP-exempt allowances for academy + community spend (£2m/year), and allowed losses under FFP (£13m/year): £93m total, i.e. how much we can actually spend on everything within an FFP window. Key to note that this excludes potential player trading profits, which would directly tack on.

Yearly costs (by accounting year):

18-19: £1.71m amortisation, £0.18m wages, £1.9m total (all BB)

19-20: £2.96m amortisation (£1.71m BB, £1.25m SG), £1.4m wages (£0.36m BB, £1m SG), £4.37m total

20-21: £2.96m amortisation (£1.71m BB, £1.25m SG), £1.4m wages (£0.36m BB, £1m SG), £4.37m total

21-22: £2.96m amortisation (£1.71m BB, £1.25m SG), £1.4m wages (£0.36m BB, £1m SG), £4.37m total

22-23: £1.25m amortisation, £1.04m wages, £2.65m total (all SG)

Cost by FFP window

2019-21: £7.64m amortisation (£5.1m BB, £2.5m SG), £2.99m wages (£0.9m BB, £2.1m SG), £10.63m total or 11.4% of 'total spending allowance'

2020-22: £8.89m amortisation (£5.1m BB, £3.7m SG), £4.21m wages (£1.1m BB, £3.1m SG), £13.1m total or 14.1% of 'total spending allowance'

2021-23: £7.18 amortisation (£3.4m BB, £3.7m SG), £3.85m wages (£0.7m BB, £3.1m SG), £11.03m total or 11.9% of 'total spending allowance'

2022-24: £4.21m amortisation (£1.7m BB, £2.5m SG), £2.44m wages (£0.4m BB, £2.1m SG), £6.66m total or 7.2% of 'total spending allowance'

2023-25: £1.25m amortisation, £1.04m wages, £2.29m total (all SG) or 2.5% of 'total spending allowance'

As a quick note, with the way player trading profits work, suppose we were to try and flog off Brereton in the summer and "cut our losses", for say £1m. We would then need to book the rest of his transfer amortisation in the year of his sale and the £1m would have to be netted against the remaining £3.42m of amortisation on his transfer, so that would actually be an 'accounting loss' of £2.42m for that year. However, we would also no longer be on the hook for another £800k or so of wages.

Just from my own POV, I think a) £5m for Gallagher really isn't that ridiculous in today's market for a young striker with 'some' pedigree, particularly spread over 4 years b) at the very least, he's shown he can be 'effective' at this level, it's just a matter of consistently coaxing that out c) as the above suggests, it's his probably high wages rather than his transfer fee that deserve more scrutiny (I should perhaps also reveal a slight bias as Gallagher is an "acquaintance-of-a-friend" and apparently he's a 'good egg' )

As another note, I thought it was interesting that transfermarkt's 'market value' for Brereton at the time we bought him was £4.5m: https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/ben-brereton/marktwertverlauf/spieler/426192 I'm pretty sure transfermarkt's market values are purely based on regressions of historical transfer data against various explanatory variables. So, an 18/19-year-old striker with 8 goals (1 a pen) and 7 assists in 3,326 minutes of Championship play and 1 goal (a pen) in 273 minutes of Cup play would be 'expected' to be worth £4.5m. They now have Brereton down at £2.7m. Obviously looks to be an example of why "top-down regressions" should be treated with extreme caution when evaluating players and the 'eye test' is still needed (particularly for a pretty basic statistical approach haha), but I thought it was an interesting idea of what his 'expected value' was at the time given an 18-19-year-old with goals in the Championship are relatively rare!

Edited January 30, 2020 by RoverCanada

[chaddyrovers]

Very good post @RoverCanada

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

If there's anybody out there prepared to give us £2.7 million for Brererton we should take it.

[Vilesinner]

6 minutes ago, Paul Mani said:

?

 

14 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

It doesn’t matter what ‘League’ U23 teams are in, it’s non competitive football made up of youngsters of differing ages and senior pros out of favour/coming back from injury who are often de-motivated.

It’s all about those 2,3 players in a crop that can make it. United’s 2 or 3 will usually be of a better standard than ours as they can cherry pick the region/country/world’s top talent whilst we try and polish up bigger club’s cast offs and whatever is left when those club’s have had their fill.

It matters greatly to a club like ours. The Academy is our lifeblood, and great to see it is better than ever now.

Also no surprise to see Man Utd being rubbish recently when they have little quality coming through their academy.

[Amo]

1 hour ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I don't see why some lump him in with BB. Not comparable. 

We overpaid for both. Gallagher has made some contribution but that money could’ve been spent on a goalscorer or a right winger. We’ve got neither.

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

It doesn’t matter what ‘League’ U23 teams are in, it’s non competitive football made up of youngsters of differing ages and senior pros out of favour/coming back from injury who are often de-motivated.

It’s all about those 2,3 players in a crop that can make it. United’s 2 or 3 will usually be of a better standard than ours as they can cherry pick the region/country/world’s top talent whilst we try and polish up bigger club’s cast offs and whatever is left when those club’s have had their fill.

Couldn't disagree more with that assessment, and I believe other clubs are getting it right where we aren't. Look at Wigan who are consistently now bringing through youth players into their team at Category Two status. Yes, they're struggling as a team, but some PL clubs have been circling around a few of their lads.

Travis is the bench mark, there's plenty of players who look EVEN BETTER in the 23's than he did at that level, and have scope to be even bigger than him for us... we have to utilise it.

To say that the League doesn't matter is a load of tosh, genuinely. On the whole, we have a much better group of lads at 23's level than Manchester United... you can't argue it, we're a division above them. We just mismanage it and fail to capitalise, where other clubs do capitalise.

Edited January 30, 2020 by JoeH

[Bigdoggsteel]

2 minutes ago, Amo said:

We overpaid for both. Gallagher has made some contribution but that money could’ve been spent on a goalscorer or a right winger. We’ve got neither.

I don't think we overpaid for Gallagher. Not when I consider what others have moved for . He is doing well and I would back him to score more regularly at some point. 

[Mattyblue]

Not sure what you are disagreeing with Joe? It obviously doesn’t matter that United aren’t in PL2 as they are still producing Rashford, Greenwood, Williams etc. Players that will have a career at elite level. 

I love Travis, JRC looks a tidy player, Buckley has potential. But they aren’t and never will be elite footballers. It is very simplistic to think that just because we happen to be in a higher league than Man Utd for a level of football that is a mishmash of 17 to 22 year olds and recovering/frozen out first teamers, our Academy should be producing better players than MUFC. They have the pick of world talent, we don’t.

[Sparks Rover]

10 minutes ago, JoeH said:

Couldn't disagree more with that assessment, and I believe other clubs are getting it right where we aren't. Look at Wigan who are consistently now bringing through youth players into their team at Category Two status. Yes, they're struggling as a team, but some PL clubs have been circling around a few of their lads.

Travis is the bench mark, there's plenty of players who look EVEN BETTER in the 23's than he did at that level, and have scope to be even bigger than him for us... we have to utilise it.

To say that the League doesn't matter is a load of tosh, genuinely. On the whole, we have a much better group of lads at 23's level than Manchester United... you can't argue it, we're a division above them. We just mismanage it and fail to capitalise, where other clubs do capitalise.

Not true at all.  Utd don't give a toss if they win or lose a match in the 23s, it's all about how the one or two play well that they are focused on.  Utd take the best player round here until 14/15/16 and then they get released and filter down to rovers, preston, bolton etc.  We may have a "category A " academy but in reality you may aswell scrap it and just start from 16 as its o n the same level as the others round here.

Be interesting to see how the U18s get on next month v PNE in the youth cup. By your reckoning we should batter them.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Sparks Rover

[skous18]

Couldn’t care less if we were signing noone cause we were doing shit. However, we are literally one right midfielder and one left back away from the play offs and yet we seem incapable of doing the business. If we cant do it now when there is an excitement around the club and a lot of teams are underperforming, then surely we wont be able to sort this thing out in the summer, or even if we do, its not a guarantee that we will have a chance to attack the play offs.

idk, its just depressing with all this false ‘rumours/promises’