January transfer window 2020

[Waggy76]

15 minutes ago, Mercer said:

Some need to get real, as I have posted over the last fortnight or so, IMO, we are brassic and there will be more income (transfer fees received and wages saved) than expenditure (transfer fees paid and wages spent) - this seems to have since been confirmed in LT stuff.  I think we are closer to a 'tipping point' than some would imagine and, IMO, there will be at least one 'big' player departure this window.

I also think Mowbray is closer to the exit door than some would imagine.  With no money, injuries to key players, five games into another poor run of form and results, I think we are in a right old mess.  It would not surprise me if Mowbray is not looking for a way out now - got £25 on him being the next Championship Manager to go at 20/1.

 

It is a great shame Middlesbrough have started winning !!!

 

[Blue blood]

There is so much to do on this squad it is untrue. 

Keeper situation - Walton isn't good enough but is miles better than the reserve keeper. Even on our good run this was identified as a place that needed improvement. Think January is the hardest time to recruit a keeper as most are on loan by now who are surplus to requirements. 

Defence - depth and quality. Our only decent left back is a converted midfielder so this needs sorting asap. For all the "like a new signing" cliche Downing being released from covering left back would massively improve our midfield options and balance. (As an aside in Bell and Williams is there any team with 2 more abject left backs in the division?) 

All the other positions do have decent quality - Nayambe, Tosin and Lenihen -but all seem to miss huge amounts of games. Even if they were all regularly fit a hard nut centre back would give us lots more options tactically, but given the injuries the trio sustain a centre half is also a must imo. Tosin can switch between CB and cover for RB as required. As it is an injury to any one of these 3 and the quality downgrade is so appalling it's like swapping a car for a bike. 

Midfield - glut of them and many of them can do a job. Bennett, Johnson, Armstrong, Evans, Rothwell, Holtby are all ok/solid/have potential to be doing better than they are and with so many other areas needing strengthening this really isn't a priority. If we can get all of these players, heck half of these players, playing at the top of their game (which we have seen glimpses of, albeit infrequently) then we have a very strong midfield. Certainly no need to spend money here. 

Strikers - when the conversation is who is least worst Bereton or Gally you know you have problems. We need to replace Dack's goals and neither of these guys, nor Graham, look like they will do it. Ergo a striker is a must. Clean sheets mean you don't need to score many but we do need some goals and only Dack reliably scores them. We're high on quantity low on quality so would ship a couple out on loan and get in someone else who knows where the net is. Keep Graham too as he is the only reliable one in there but get the rest out on loan where one of them may develop into a decent player. 

So imo we need 4 players in January - striker, centre back, keeper and left back. Given we do well to get 2 in during January that means we are likely to end up with half of what we actually need! TM is tied to Bereton and Gally doing well so cannot see us getting a striker. In fact the only one I can see him getting is a left back for Cunningham replacement. I'll be honest if we only do have the budget for 2, and 4 signings is a lot for any club in January, much less a non functional one like ours, then I have no idea which to prioritise as they are all desperately needed. 

[chaddyrovers]

38 minutes ago, K-Hod said:

Is that a serious comment? If it hampers our ability to improve our squad and therefore get promoted, given our latest financial results, I’d say it matters a lot!

Yes he right. We can complain and moan about past decisions or we can deal with present circumstances 

[Guest]

Take away Walton, Adarabioyo and Cunningham on loan... and then remove all players with virtually no re-sale value, or who's playing time at the club is unlikely to be long-term. Players like Bennett, Graham, Downing, Johnson who aren't ever going to make the club any money from this point onwards...

This is the squad you're left with, players of a good/decent age, who are long term players in your side, who could potentially move for big sums.

Players in orange are academy assets. First team players wise, when you remove Bradley Dack from the equation, and pull those green highlighted first teamers together... you've got:

Now compare this graphic with the 2016/17 relegation side, also not including Bradley Dack. Long term players back then included the likes of Graham and Mulgrew, but even then they didn't have a significant re-sale value. Sam Gallagher and Marvin Emnes where here on loan, Jason Lowe the captain was worth bugger all... Danny Guthrie, Liam Feeney, Lucas Joao (another loan), Gordon Greer, Elliott Ward...

Whilst we may feel that between 2016 - NOW we've gone barely anywhere (besides Bradley Dack)... that's not necessarily the case.

BUT... I hear you cry, this doesn't take into account the money spent on these players... We've spunked away £12m on shit strikers!!!!

So here it is. Estimated profits if each saleable asset was sold. Now of course the academy doesn't run for free, but those figures don't come into FFP, and it's hard to distribute academy money spent to specific players like Lewis Travis and Ryan Nyambe. Actual money spent on Ben Brereton isn't £7m as of Jan 2020, and same with Gallagher being slightly lower too. So are we better off (even without Dack) than we were pre-relegation? I guess it's hard to say.

We're operating at a loss each season, of over £20m now, but we absolutely have more on the field assets than we did two/three years ago. It could be argued that by next season, Travis, Lenihan, Rothwell and Nyambe could all be worth more... depending on how they perform. Even Adam Armstrong is probably slightly undervalued at £2.5m but I've tried to be realistic.

We all get frustrated at Rovers, I myself included. Many of us have just travelled about 13 hours in 6 days following the lads away from home over the new years period... and the rewards were non-existent. But when you assess where we are now vs where we were in 2016, we're in a better position. Yes Gallagher is bloody useless, and Buckley is weak as a butter left out in summer - but things are naturally on the up over the last few years. This is going to take time, and as much as so far Mowbray has had a VERY mixed bag in the transfer market, you can't deny the current clubs player value vs the 2016 player values we had. 

 

[Amo]

7 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Yes he right. We can complain and moan about past decisions or we can deal with present circumstances 

Like removing the man who blew £12m on two duds?

[Guest]

53 minutes ago, joey_big_nose said:

Our striking options are terrible at the moment. Much worse than Emnes, Jao etc.

Only area we are definitely better now than 2017 is central midfield and attacking mid.

Both Emnes AND Joao were never ours. Gallagher and Brereton, whilst both performing poorly, are Blackburn assets, whereas the two you mentioned were not. 

[LeftWinger]

2 minutes ago, JoeH said:

But when you assess where we are now vs where we were in 2016, we're in a better position.....you can't deny the current clubs player value vs the 2016 player values we had. 

 

I think the market has moved on a lot in those three years though. Players are costing a lot more to buy now thanks to the current Premier League TV deal, so are we actually any better off?

[Guest]

Just now, LeftWinger said:

I think the market has moved on a lot in those three years though. Players are costing a lot more to buy now thanks to the current Premier League TV deal, so are we actually any better off?

Yes. Massively. Only players worth anything in that squad in 2016 are either here now, or were never Rovers assets to begin with (loans)

[chaddyrovers]

2 hours ago, Mercer said:

Some need to get real, as I have posted over the last fortnight or so, IMO, we are brassic and there will be more income (transfer fees received and wages saved) than expenditure (transfer fees paid and wages spent) - this seems to have since been confirmed in LT stuff.  I think we are closer to a 'tipping point' than some would imagine and, IMO, there will be at least one 'big' player departure this window.

I also think Mowbray is closer to the exit door than some would imagine.  With no money, injuries to key players, five games into another poor run of form and results, I think we are in a right old mess.  It would not surprise me if Mowbray is not looking for a way out now - got £25 on him being the next Championship Manager to go at 20/1.

 

Mercer you said this stuff all before and it never happens Mercer. 

Mowbray wont walk away from Rovers and very much his job is under no threat from the owners. My view and view of many away from this messsgeboard. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by chaddyrovers

[roversfan99]

1 hour ago, JoeH said:

Yeah, cmon, at least for me anyway.

Adam Armstrong
Lewis Holtby
Joe Rothwell
Ryan Nyambe

vs

Liam Feeney
Jason Lowe
Danny Guthrie
Elliott Ward

I did an analysis on the whole squad yesterday on this thread. I concluded that the squad is perhaps slightly more valuable but it is nominal either way. Most of our poorest players back then had deals which were about to expire, sadly now that is not quite the case.

What you have done is selected 4 players, one of whom was already here, 2 of whom have done nothing to warrant becoming sellable assets, and a 4th who I would be sceptical as to whether we could break even on. You have then unfairly compared them to 4 of our worst players in that squad, 3 of them whose contracts were nearing expiry. Ward who numerically was in addition to Lenihan, Williams and Mulgrew/Adarabioyo. 

I feel that your valuations are too high and unrealistic, quite a few of those players are almost liabilities rather than assets. Gallagher for example is on a long contract I suspect as one of if not our highest earners. Theres not a cat in hells chance that someone would take that wage on in full AND pay 1.5m (Which would make a loss of 3.5m) so we are stuck with him. Likewise Brereton, who in their sane mind would pay 1m (a 6m loss) and take on his wage. Neither are even assets to us really at this moment. 13m of your 20m (totally fabricated but to be fair its incredibly difficult to accurately value players not being sold) is based on players we had at the club when Mowbray appointed, I couldnt see anyone paying 1m for Buckley and am unconvinced about the other 3 but Lenihan and Nyambe were in the team back then so we havent gained them in comparison, and whilst Mowbray has brought Travis through he was technically already at the club. I doubt anyone would come in for Rothwell, Chapman and Bell at them prices either.

It certainly doesnt bode well considering how much we have spent under Mowbray.

[Butty]

12 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Mercer you said this stuff all before and it never happens Mercer. 

Mowbray wont walk away from Rovers and very much his job is under any threat from the owners. My view and view of many away from this messsgeboard. 

Your view changes twice a week though Chaddy, It wasn’t that long ago you thought Mowbrays time was up. 

[islander200]

7 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Mercer you said this stuff all before and it never happens Mercer. 

Mowbray wont walk away from Rovers and very much his job is under any threat from the owners. My view and view of many away from this messsgeboard. 

Before our good run you thought it was near the end for Mowbray?

We have reverted back to type,I know there are injuries and fitness issues etc but the amount of changes  Mowbray made to the team over the festive period was ridiculous.

I had a little teeny glimmer of hope during our decent spell that Mowbray had finally cottoned on and would start to play a settled line up with players mostly in their correct positions.

He has been unfortunate with Dacks injury but since it  Mowbray doesn't seem to have a clue on what to do since he got injured.

At any other club I do think he would have been sacked already.I like Mowbray and think he has done some good things for the club but we need someone in who can improve players with their coaching,who is better in the transfer market and who doesn't have to tinker every single match 

[chaddyrovers]

Just now, Butty said:

Your view changes twice a week though Chaddy, It wasn’t that long ago you thought Mowbrays time was up. 

Sadly with some members people cant change their mind or even accept people can change their mind. 

Sadly this is something you bring up with me even tho I came on the board and explain fully why I change my opinion. I shouldn't need to keep explaining it. 

[Guest]

Just now, roversfan99 said:

I did an analysis on the whole squad yesterday on this thread. I concluded that the squad is perhaps slightly more valuable but it is nominal either way. Most of our poorest players back then had deals which were about to expire, sadly now that is not quite the case.

What you have done is selected 4 players, one of whom was already here, 2 of whom have done nothing to warrant becoming sellable assets, and a 4th who I would be sceptical as to whether we could break even on. You have then unfairly compared them to 4 of our worst players in that squad, 3 of them whose contracts were nearing expiry. Ward who numerically was in addition to Lenihan, Williams and Mulgrew/Adarabioyo. 

I feel that your valuations are too high and unrealistic, quite a few of those players are almost liabilities rather than assets. Gallagher for example is on a long contract I suspect as one of if not our highest earners. Theres not a cat in hells chance that someone would take that wage on in full AND pay 1.5m (Which would make a loss of 3.5m) so we are stuck with him. Likewise Brereton, who in their sane mind would pay 1m (a 6m loss) and take on his wage. Neither are even assets to us really at this moment. 13m of your 20m (totally fabricated but to be fair its incredibly difficult to accurately value players not being sold) is based on players we had at the club when Mowbray appointed, I couldnt see anyone paying 1m for Buckley and am unconvinced about the other 3 but Lenihan and Nyambe were in the team back then so we havent gained them in comparison, and whilst Mowbray has brought Travis through he was technically already at the club. I doubt anyone would come in for Rothwell, Chapman and Bell at them prices either.

It certainly doesnt bode well considering how much we have spent under Mowbray.

When you look at money spent, and current value of this squad, we're in a significantly better position than in 2016/17. 

Steele - Broke Even
Raya - Profit

Henley - Loss (released on a free)
Greer - Loss (released on a free)
Ward - Loss (released on a free)
Brown - Loss (released on a free)
Lowe - Loss (released on a free)
Williams - Still Here
Mulgrew - Still Here

Feeney - Loss (released on a free)
Akpan - Loss (released on a free)
Guthrie - Loss (released on a free)
Lenihan - Still Here
Mahoney - Profit of £500,000...
Conway - Loss (released on a free)
Bennett - Still Here

Graham - Still Here
Stokes - Loss (released on a free)

That's the 2016/17 squad minus the loan players who didn't make us any profit either.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I watched that video that Chaddy posted earlier regarding our new enhanced training methods. It all looks very slick and well thought out but as soon as we take to the field there is absolutely no evidence in our play that any of it is working. I'm not a stick in the mud but there seemed to be a lot of theoretical work and gym work but I didn't see much evidence of us actually playing full size games.

[Mashed Potatoes]

1 hour ago, K-Hod said:

Is that a serious comment? If it hampers our ability to improve our squad and therefore get promoted, given our latest financial results, I’d say it matters a lot!

What was meant was that shouting "you are to blame" at whoever comes in to sight gets nobody anywhere .

[Mashed Potatoes]

31 minutes ago, Amo said:

Like removing the man who blew £12m on two duds?

You have missed out half of your sentence because you haven't said who comes in to replace him.

[Guest]

Can't see how it's even a question as to whether this current side is better/worth more than the relegation side of 2016/17. Sometimes I fear that people are naive to undervalue current players and overvalue past ones. Do you lot not remember the days of Hope Akpan, Jason Lower, Danny Guthrie, Adam Henley, Elliott Ward, Gordon Greer, Wes Brown, Jason Lowe, Anthony Stokes..........

It was such a shit team. I can't fathom how we're even contemplating comparing this current side to anywhere near the low levels of that side. In terms of market value, quality on the pitch and everything in between.

Just look at the two squads next to each other... Christ, even the team we had in League One would've faired better in the Championship than this side did!

Steele > Leutwiler
Raya > Walton (LOAN)
Nyambe < Still Here
Henley > JRC
Greer < Adarabioyo (LOAN)
Ward > () 
Brown > ()
Lowe > ()
Williams < Still Here
Mulgrew < Still Here
Lenihan < Still Here
Feeney < Rothwell
Akpan < Holtby
Guthrie < Dack
Mahoney <> Chapman
Conway < Downing
Bennett < Still Here
Tomlinson < Travis
Graham < Still Here
Stokes < Gallagher
Joao (LOAN) > Brereton
Emnes (LOAN) > Samuel
() < Armstrong

[Madon]

I've not been following this thread at all lately so it may have already been mentioned but a guy from work has just said we are about to sign Nikolas Schmidt on loan to replace Dack. 

Anyone any idea? I've never heard of him!

[Sparks Rover]

Just now, Madon said:

I've not been following this thread at all lately so it may have already been mentioned but a guy from work has just said we are about to sign Nikolas Schmidt on loan to replace Dack. 

Anyone any idea? I've never heard of him!

I said it first on here before..bagsy

[Bigdoggsteel]

Just now, Madon said:

I've not been following this thread at all lately so it may have already been mentioned but a guy from work has just said we are about to sign Nikolas Schmidt on loan to replace Dack. 

Anyone any idea? I've never heard of him!

All I know is he is everything Mowbray disagrees with regards starting a new signing, both young and foreign. He might get a game in May. 

[Amo]

14 minutes ago, Mashed Potatoes said:

You have missed out half of your sentence because you haven't said who comes in to replace him.

Not my job. I could offer alternatives and you'd blithely dismiss them for your own agenda.

You act like mediocre Mowbray is the best we could possibly hope for. What a depressing mindset.

[Tom]

46 minutes ago, JoeH said:

Take away Walton, Adarabioyo and Cunningham on loan... and then remove all players with virtually no re-sale value, or who's playing time at the club is unlikely to be long-term. Players like Bennett, Graham, Downing, Johnson who aren't ever going to make the club any money from this point onwards...

This is the squad you're left with, players of a good/decent age, who are long term players in your side, who could potentially move for big sums.

Players in orange are academy assets. First team players wise, when you remove Bradley Dack from the equation, and pull those green highlighted first teamers together... you've got:

Now compare this graphic with the 2016/17 relegation side, also not including Bradley Dack. Long term players back then included the likes of Graham and Mulgrew, but even then they didn't have a significant re-sale value. Sam Gallagher and Marvin Emnes where here on loan, Jason Lowe the captain was worth bugger all... Danny Guthrie, Liam Feeney, Lucas Joao (another loan), Gordon Greer, Elliott Ward...

Whilst we may feel that between 2016 - NOW we've gone barely anywhere (besides Bradley Dack)... that's not necessarily the case.

BUT... I hear you cry, this doesn't take into account the money spent on these players... We've spunked away £12m on shit strikers!!!!

So here it is. Estimated profits if each saleable asset was sold. Now of course the academy doesn't run for free, but those figures don't come into FFP, and it's hard to distribute academy money spent to specific players like Lewis Travis and Ryan Nyambe. Actual money spent on Ben Brereton isn't £7m as of Jan 2020, and same with Gallagher being slightly lower too. So are we better off (even without Dack) than we were pre-relegation? I guess it's hard to say.

We're operating at a loss each season, of over £20m now, but we absolutely have more on the field assets than we did two/three years ago. It could be argued that by next season, Travis, Lenihan, Rothwell and Nyambe could all be worth more... depending on how they perform. Even Adam Armstrong is probably slightly undervalued at £2.5m but I've tried to be realistic.

We all get frustrated at Rovers, I myself included. Many of us have just travelled about 13 hours in 6 days following the lads away from home over the new years period... and the rewards were non-existent. But when you assess where we are now vs where we were in 2016, we're in a better position. Yes Gallagher is bloody useless, and Buckley is weak as a butter left out in summer - but things are naturally on the up over the last few years. This is going to take time, and as much as so far Mowbray has had a VERY mixed bag in the transfer market, you can't deny the current clubs player value vs the 2016 player values we had. 

 

Great effort gone into this thanks 

Striking though that after Dacky the two or three worth the most are lads that were already here in Lenihan, Travis and Nyambe!

It also highlights that the owners would be right to be sceptical of giving Mowbray money to spend 

[Bigdoggsteel]

36 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

I did an analysis on the whole squad yesterday on this thread. I concluded that the squad is perhaps slightly more valuable but it is nominal either way. Most of our poorest players back then had deals which were about to expire, sadly now that is not quite the case.

What you have done is selected 4 players, one of whom was already here, 2 of whom have done nothing to warrant becoming sellable assets, and a 4th who I would be sceptical as to whether we could break even on. You have then unfairly compared them to 4 of our worst players in that squad, 3 of them whose contracts were nearing expiry. Ward who numerically was in addition to Lenihan, Williams and Mulgrew/Adarabioyo. 

I feel that your valuations are too high and unrealistic, quite a few of those players are almost liabilities rather than assets. Gallagher for example is on a long contract I suspect as one of if not our highest earners. Theres not a cat in hells chance that someone would take that wage on in full AND pay 1.5m (Which would make a loss of 3.5m) so we are stuck with him. Likewise Brereton, who in their sane mind would pay 1m (a 6m loss) and take on his wage. Neither are even assets to us really at this moment. 13m of your 20m (totally fabricated but to be fair its incredibly difficult to accurately value players not being sold) is based on players we had at the club when Mowbray appointed, I couldnt see anyone paying 1m for Buckley and am unconvinced about the other 3 but Lenihan and Nyambe were in the team back then so we havent gained them in comparison, and whilst Mowbray has brought Travis through he was technically already at the club. I doubt anyone would come in for Rothwell, Chapman and Bell at them prices either.

It certainly doesnt bode well considering how much we have spent under Mowbray.

Youth and potential much better now. You are underestimating how bad that squad that went down was. Out of contract duds who generally ended up at league 2 standard or worse. Not knocking your analysis,  you put a fair bit of work into it and made some valid points, but if you cant see the difference, then I think you dont want to. There is a reason that side went down and it's not just the one in tiny shorts. 

I take your main point as being that we have better players,but they haven't performed as well as they can. The midfield in particular is like night and day. 

You give Warnock or Mick McCarthy both squads and which one are they doing better with? Answer is pretty clear I think. The only debate is upfront and let's not make out that Emnes or Joao were more consistent than they actually were. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Bigdoggsteel

[davulsukur]

1 hour ago, Mercer said:

Some need to get real, as I have posted over the last fortnight or so, IMO, we are brassic and there will be more income (transfer fees received and wages saved) than expenditure (transfer fees paid and wages spent) - this seems to have since been confirmed in LT stuff.  I think we are closer to a 'tipping point' than some would imagine and, IMO, there will be at least one 'big' player departure this window.

I also think Mowbray is closer to the exit door than some would imagine.  With no money, injuries to key players, five games into another poor run of form and results, I think we are in a right old mess.  It would not surprise me if Mowbray is not looking for a way out now - got £25 on him being the next Championship Manager to go at 20/1.

 

I think your first point is spot on. We won't have a pot to piss in and I think we were expecting a nice chunk of cash to come in from selling Dack. Obviously that's not happening anymore, so I wouldn't be surprised to see another go. Lenihan is the obvious one to bring in a reasonable amount and rumours of Sheff utd retaining their interest gives us a potential sale.

Sadly I think your 2nd point is incorrect,I can't see him going anywhere. He seems to be under no pressure from above and we've been on worse runs and he didn't walk.