The Relegation Thread (15th edition)

[jim mk2]

21 hours ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

We need a game or two against teams that are mid table with the deck chairs out.

A team like us in other words - except ours look like they are frightened of their own shadows at the moment

I thought the Rovers looked thoroughly demoralised against Bournemouth. The players have lost confidence in themselves and look resigned to defeat when we go behind.

No doubt we'll eke out a point here and there but it's not looking good. 

[Stuart]

17 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

Not much - which is a polite way of saying naff all. Please don't mistake what I am saying - I'm not saying we aren't dire, we are. I'm not convinced we will be getting a load of points either - - a couple of draws at best imo. 

What I am saying is that I can't see, specifically Rotherham but perhaps a couple of others too, overcoming an 11 point gap with so few games remaining. Even if they all best us Rotherham, Sheffield etc all need another few wins outside of thar. And other teams are not as obliging as us. 

So to sum up there's nothing in our performances, rather I think the 11 point gap is enough to see us sneak home safe this year.

Next one does look a nightmare though. And please don't take me thinking we will stay up for a lack of concern at how badly things have gone and how poor we now are. 

It’s a big ask for Rotherham to catch us (12 points needed) - although they have four more games to do so. They play Luton, Boro and QPR all on the beach with nothing to play for (like Bristol City whom they beat). They also play Rovers at home. That would be enough to overtake us. Then it’s a straight head to head as they play a lot of the same teams as us.

There are enough six pointers in there for us to be favourites for 22nd place by the 8th May. That final day against Big Club could be a relegation decider.

I am very worried. We really need a win against Cardiff and two draws. With Mowbray sat in the dugout like a pigeon on a park bench, I’m unconvinced we will get them.

[Bigdoggsteel]

13 minutes ago, Stuart said:

It’s a big ask for Rotherham to catch us (12 points needed) - although they have four more games to do so. They play Luton, Boro and QPR all on the beach with nothing to play for (like Bristol City whom they beat). They also play Rovers at home. That would be enough to overtake us. Then it’s a straight head to head as they play a lot of the same teams as us.

There are enough six pointers in there for us to be favourites for 22nd place by the 8th May. That final day against Big Club could be a relegation decider.

I am very worried. We really need a win against Cardiff and two draws. With Mowbray sat in the dugout like a pigeon on a park bench, I’m unconvinced we will get them.

They expected a relegation scrap, this lot didn't 

[Blue blood]

5 minutes ago, Stuart said:

It’s a big ask for Rotherham to catch us (12 points needed) - although they have four more games to do so. They play Luton, Boro and QPR all on the beach with nothing to play for (like Bristol City whom they beat). They also play Rovers at home. That would be enough to overtake us. Then it’s a straight head to head as they play a lot of the same teams as us.

There are enough six pointers in there for us to be favourites for 22nd place by the 8th May. That final day against Big Club could be a relegation decider.

I am very worried. We really need a win against Cardiff and two draws. With Mowbray sat in the dugout like a pigeon on a park bench, I’m unconvinced we will get them.

I see your reasoning and it's a sadly solid argument. That said Rotherham aren't that good and fatigue will set in with all the extra games they have to play. Boro are no mugs though - getting a good result Vs Watford - and could be pushing for playoffs so certainly won't have that down as a Rotherham win. The other two teams do have some good players though which means it's far from a forgone conclusion that Rotherham win those two games. They didn't beat Millwall who have a similar mid table beach vibe. 

I'm not saying it's not possible - it is and that's a terrible indictment of TM - but I still don't think it is probable. They haven't looked that convincing at any point this season. More likely from those games is 4 points, perhaps 6 max, which still gives us a bit of breathing room. Even a win against us on top of those 6 points and we are still 2 ahead even without picking another point up. They would still need to get an additional win even if we didn't pick up another point. So that's 4 wins from 7 to 9 games that they have. That's a big ask for a poor team. 

And this is assuming we don't pick up any more points. We looked decent against Norwich, and in the last 7 or so games have picked up 7 points. Now that is far from praise worthy or laudable but assuming we keep on a similar vein we're likely to pick up a few more points via draws meaning Rotherham will need another win on top of that. 7 from 42 isn't good, and whilst 7 from the last 7 (I think) is still pathetic it suggests we can limp to the finish line. Huddersfield will be on there hols, Cardiff are having a wobble - both games I can see us getting a point in. These extra points would mean Rotherham need to get another positive result on top of the ones already listed. It's getting a bigger ask by the moment. 

The final thing I would add is I have seen a number of undeserved wins this season. The Millwall first time round game (I think) sticks out when we had a stupid 4-2-2-2 formation, players all over the place and yet still fluked a win. There's every chance that more by error or design we might fluke a result - there are some quality players in the dross (Elliott and Armstrong) that could bail us out. A few fluked results - draws or wins and the task grows even more difficult for Rotherham. 

It may be tight but I am confident we will just stay up. An extra 3 or 4 games on top of what's left (for both teams) and I would probably have a different conclusion. 

[Stuart]

4 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

I see your reasoning and it's a sadly solid argument. That said Rotherham aren't that good and fatigue will set in with all the extra games they have to play. Boro are no mugs though - getting a good result Vs Watford - and could be pushing for playoffs so certainly won't have that down as a Rotherham win. The other two teams do have some good players though which means it's far from a forgone conclusion that Rotherham win those two games. They didn't beat Millwall who have a similar mid table beach vibe. 

I'm not saying it's not possible - it is and that's a terrible indictment of TM - but I still don't think it is probable. They haven't looked that convincing at any point this season. More likely from those games is 4 points, perhaps 6 max, which still gives us a bit of breathing room. Even a win against us on top of those 6 points and we are still 2 ahead even without picking another point up. They would still need to get an additional win even if we didn't pick up another point. So that's 4 wins from 7 to 9 games that they have. That's a big ask for a poor team. 

And this is assuming we don't pick up any more points. We looked decent against Norwich, and in the last 7 or so games have picked up 7 points. Now that is far from praise worthy or laudable but assuming we keep on a similar vein we're likely to pick up a few more points via draws meaning Rotherham will need another win on top of that. 7 from 42 isn't good, and whilst 7 from the last 7 (I think) is still pathetic it suggests we can limp to the finish line. Huddersfield will be on there hols, Cardiff are having a wobble - both games I can see us getting a point in. These extra points would mean Rotherham need to get another positive result on top of the ones already listed. It's getting a bigger ask by the moment. 

The final thing I would add is I have seen a number of undeserved wins this season. The Millwall first time round game (I think) sticks out when we had a stupid 4-2-2-2 formation, players all over the place and yet still fluked a win. There's every chance that more by error or design we might fluke a result - there are some quality players in the dross (Elliott and Armstrong) that could bail us out. A few fluked results - draws or wins and the task grows even more difficult for Rotherham. 

It may be tight but I am confident we will just stay up. An extra 3 or 4 games on top of what's left (for both teams) and I would probably have a different conclusion. 

All reasonable counter-arguments, but I think you are using normal logic and the law of averages.

One final worry...

This was Hull City’s final six games of 2019/20.

After 40 games they were 19th.

Six games later there were 24th.

[davulsukur]

Norwich keeping Hudds below us at least. 4-0 after 30mins at the mo.

[Blue blood]

4 minutes ago, Stuart said:

All reasonable counter-arguments, but I think you are using normal logic and the law of averages.

One final worry...

This was Hull City’s final six games of 2019/20.

After 40 games they were 19th.

Six games later there were 24th.

Oh it's entirely possible I will give you that. Worry is the word.

What's noticeable there is the total implosion of 6 losses in a row to end it. With the fragility of our lot mentally that's certainly possible. it takes that kind of an implosion for this situarion to happen, but it could especially if the pressure is on.

I could be wrong though but our record in the last 14 is better than any 14 of Hull's run in Marginal differences admittedly but it may be the difference to staying up. 

Any normal club would ha booted the manager out just to get the caretaker boost to ensure we are safe. 

[rovers11]

Brum picked up a point, Huddersfield obviously going to lose. The latter getting thrashed helps us as you'd imagine they'll be well up for the Rotherham game.

I don't think we'll go down but it's appalling that we are even genuinely talking about it with the squad we have.

You'd think the law of averages would mean that we'll pick up one win from the final six games which would mean Rotherham have to win 5 of their remaining 10 games. That's a tall order.