Can we make the Playoffs?

[47er]

6 hours ago, Admiral Nelsen said:

In the main though, judging off this season alone, TM has been pretty ruthless with the players who were meant to be his pals. Even Benno, who gets far too much grief from some who have short memories imo, hasn't been starting recently.

 

I'd say Mowbray got there very late, much later than the fans. Same could be said for Brereton/Gallagher/Armstrong on the wing.

Too slow to correct when its beyond obvious that its not working.

[47er]

7 hours ago, Exiled in Toronto said:

Not sure Benno would agree with you, 9 first teamers injured and he’s still a bench player.

 Don't ignore the time it took to reach that conclusion will you?

[47er]

1 hour ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

In fact, fuck it, in light of The Bores comments about facts I decided I'd do a little research this evening. We are talking about "balance of the team", or what that phrase basically means, are we any good with Gallagher on the wing?

I'll have to add a caveat in that maybe google has the line ups / formation wrong however all of this info was taken from google:

Results with Sam Gallagher starting up front:

Won - 2

Drawn - 4

Lost - 5

Results with Sam Gallagher starting on the wing:

Won - 6

Drawn - 4

Lost - 2

There are 10 games unaccounted in which he either did not play or did not start.

Of the games he did not play we:

Won - 3

Lost - 1

Of the games he came on as a sub we:

Won - 3

Drawn - 2

So, by collating the data I get it as we win more than we lose when Gallagher plays; we win more than we lose when he's on the wing; we win more times when he starts on the wing than when he starts up front; Gallagher is an effective substitution in order to not lose a game.

If we are talking about balance of the team then one would have to assume that more wins = a more balanced team. Do we lose balance by starting SG on the wing? Not according to the results. Do the results trend towards Gallagher being more effective out wide right than up front? Yes.

Of particular interest is that I don't get Gallagher down as playing up front since the Leeds game. Since then we've only lost 2 games in which he's started.

Is Sam Gallagher a terrible failure of a signing? No.

Are fans ignoring the 'facts' and only patrolling these boards with 'glib ad hominem quips'? Yes but it isn't those that try and defend Mowbray or Gallagher.

Note: I value any fact checking you may want to do. I did this in approx. 15 mins by looking at line ups / results and putting it together. I may have errors- point them out to me and I will change the results accordingly.

Note: Just noticed original post only accounted for 26 games. I have updated to suit all 33 games now. Stats have increased in favour of SG being on the wing. WINNER WINNER.

When Gallagher is on the wing (or Brereton) its like starting with 10 men. We win, on occasions, despite them. Mowbray himself seems to have realised that experiment has been a failure but its taken him too long.

Are you saying he's wrong?!!

[Exiled in Toronto]

11 minutes ago, 47er said:

 Don't ignore the time it took to reach that conclusion will you?

I won’t if you don’t ignore we are three points off the playoffs ?

The poster said it was still a real thing.

[47er]

4 minutes ago, Exiled in Toronto said:

I won’t if you don’t ignore we are three points off the playoffs ?

The poster said it was still a real thing.

I'm delighted we are on a winning run and I hope it continues right through to the end of the season. If it does TM will have achieved more than I thought he could.

That doesn't mean the points I'm making are irrelevant though. However, I think Tommy Lawton may be.

 

[philipl]

Well the Charlton performance was excellent although Walton had to produce more brilliant saves. It was as good as the Fulham performance and 60 minutes of Hull were bereft.

Perhaps Tombola Mowbray was actually helped by having Cunningham, Dack, Holtby, Evans and Butterworth out for the season and Gallagher and Rankin-Costello out shorter term. He could work with the players he could be certain would be making appearances.

That said, any damage to the back four or Walton and we can kiss any dreams goodbye.

Think my forecast of finishing 7th is looking good...

Anything better not worthy of speculation until after Brentford and Stoke. Take four points from those two and perhaps, just perhaps..

Sweet dreams!

Edited February 16, 2020 by philipl

[Dreams of 1995]

2 hours ago, Hasta said:

They don't.

The problem is that, watching at Ewood, you struggle to actually see what Gallagher does when he is out wide that any half-decent wide player wouldn't do.

He doesn't get crosses in, he doesn't beat a man, he doesn't bring people into play with his height, he doesn't particularly excel tracking back and he certainly isn't offering more of a goal threat.

What he does do is work reasonably hard, which should be a requisite for any footballer (but isn't unfortunately). He also gives us some height when defending corners and set pieces.

Whilst we are winning games it isn't an issue. However you never come off the ground saying Gallagher played very well. He appears to just 'do a job' out wide. Nothing wrong with that, but it is one of the first areas you would look to improve in a transfer window. Yet we didn't.

 

I don't doubt we can do better out there. It's just with our current squad we don't look nearly as bad as everyone is making out when he is played as a right sided attacking player. We are actually better when he's there than centrally.

He's a good player in my eyes that is terribly short of goals. He's not had a good season but I'm willing to keep trying with him. 

by the players we were linked with it did look like Mowbray tried to solve the problem, or at least identifies it as one. In summer we might see more movement.

[stinny1]

Head says No, heart say Yes , But Gallagher  must stop playing has a winger, i don't  want see Bennett on the bench when there are better younger  players around the frist team . I still hope Chapman gets a run off games . And Walton has had a cracking few weeks in goal and shut a few up on the way

[Fraserkirky]

It just feels like we have some momentum, and it’s all down to the back 5. If Walton and Bell plan on keeping up these performances then we have a chance. Need Rothwell back, and I think Armstrong has to do a job wide left or right. Balance in the squad just isn’t there for him to play up top

[Sparks Rover]

Question should be, "Do we want to get the play offs?"  Mowbray's team selection for a lot of the season would suggest not. 

[chaddyrovers]

6 minutes ago, Fraserkirky said:

It just feels like we have some momentum, and it’s all down to the back 5. If Walton and Bell plan on keeping up these performances then we have a chance. Need Rothwell back, and I think Armstrong has to do a job wide left or right. Balance in the squad just isn’t there for him to play up top

Armstrong up front every time for me. Has pace, finishing ability and movement. 

4 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

Question should be, "Do we want to get the play offs?"  Mowbray's team selection for a lot of the season would suggest not. 

Wrong comment imo. 

[philipl]

2 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

Question should be, "Do we want to get the play offs?"  Mowbray's team selection for a lot of the season would suggest not. 

I am sure Mowbray will play Nyambe left back and Bell right back before season end because he spots something in the opposition video.

[CrouchingNunhiddenCucumber]

A result at Brentford would be massive. Even a draw would be acceptable with two very winnable games at home to follow. I still don't think we'll make it but fuck me it's exciting to be in the mix. 

[Paul Mani]

8 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

Question should be, "Do we want to get the play offs?"  Mowbray's team selection for a lot of the season would suggest not. 

I’m guessing ‘we’ do bearing in mind that ‘we’ have been working hard to galvanise, motivate and coach our second string plus a few U23’s to try to win a game every three days and stay within 3pts of the playoffs since December. ??‍♂️

[stinny1]

Quote

 

Its been a frustrating season so far . Tonys  over use of Bennett , Williams as had me pulling my hair out. Gallagher and Armstrong on the wings when we have wingers . His stubbornness with Rothwell and  Nyambe up too November . And the kids  Buckley, Travis ,  Rankin-Costello,  have made up for the money thats been wasted in the summer .  I hope Chapman gets a run and Davenport get a chance but these young lads have lifted my sprites these last few months i hope we can hold on too them in the summer

[47er]

9 hours ago, Fraserkirky said:

It just feels like we have some momentum, and it’s all down to the back 5. If Walton and Bell plan on keeping up these performances then we have a chance. Need Rothwell back, and I think Armstrong has to do a job wide left or right. Balance in the squad just isn’t there for him to play up top

His game is so much better when he plays centrally. I'd hate to send him backwards. For now, unless Chapman miraculously gets a start we are going to be reliant on Bell and Nyambe to charge up and down those wings. Not happy about it but there we are.

Edited February 17, 2020 by 47er

[Dreams of 1995]

Chapman has done absolutely nothing to deserve a start. 

[JHRover]

Realistically we are going to have to pull at least a couple of unexpected wins out of the bag against the sides above us or in games we would usually embrace a point in.

I'm talking Leeds, West Brom, Bristol City at home, Brentford, Cardiff and Derby away - tough fixtures. Mid table sides would happily take draws from those - promotion winners need a few wins.

[philipl]

1 hour ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

Chapman has done absolutely nothing to deserve a start. 

I only hope he does everything to justify it after making a start..

[lraC]

1 hour ago, JHRover said:

Realistically we are going to have to pull at least a couple of unexpected wins out of the bag against the sides above us or in games we would usually embrace a point in.

I'm talking Leeds, West Brom, Bristol City at home, Brentford, Cardiff and Derby away - tough fixtures. Mid table sides would happily take draws from those - promotion winners need a few wins.

I take nothing for granted, after our losses to the likes of Charlton and Luton at home. I do think we are capable of beating Derby and Cardiff away and would hope we can win one of the home games, against either West Brom or Leeds. We beat BCFC away, so why not at home too? If we can collect 12 points from those games, I am sure we will make the play offs. 

Edited February 17, 2020 by lraC

[HowieFive0]

2 hours ago, JHRover said:

Realistically we are going to have to pull at least a couple of unexpected wins out of the bag against the sides above us or in games we would usually embrace a point in.

I'm talking Leeds, West Brom, Bristol City at home, Brentford, Cardiff and Derby away - tough fixtures. Mid table sides would happily take draws from those - promotion winners need a few wins.

The facts are that apart from WBA (at the moment) any side in that league can beat each other. We were giving TM a right panning when we lost was it four on the bounce? But look at how many other teams  have done the same if not worse. Even WBA til recently had only won one in eight. Absolutely wide open are the Play Off spots.

All the teams above bar WBA are making a real hash of securing a top Six place and I think this uncertainty in who will actually get in the Play Offs (maybe even automatic second place ) will continue right til the final games.

Anyone doing the Sky Sports Soccer Six game when the games are Championship matches must realise just how un bloody predictable this League is!

 

[stinny1]

Chapman hasn't  had enough  game time so he can't  be judge  Bennett  has had plenty of game time and he can be judged  he's  been poor

[chaddyrovers]

8 hours ago, JHRover said:

Realistically we are going to have to pull at least a couple of unexpected wins out of the bag against the sides above us or in games we would usually embrace a point in.

I'm talking Leeds, West Brom, Bristol City at home, Brentford, Cardiff and Derby away - tough fixtures. Mid table sides would happily take draws from those - promotion winners need a few wins.

It's a fair point JHRover. 

West Brom and Leeds in poor form, Bristol City not in good form. 

Brentford away is a very tough fixture but one where I feel we can win it

[JHRover]

15 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

It's a fair point JHRover. 

West Brom and Leeds in poor form, Bristol City not in good form. 

Brentford away is a very tough fixture but one where I feel we can win it

Not really sure saying West Brom are in poor form is accurate at all. Seem to be doing perfectly well to me after a short wobble. Bilic an outstanding manager at this level with a very strong squad.

Derby and Cardiff tough places to go. Derby terrible away from home but very hard to beat at Pride Park. Cardiff right next to us in the table and have only lost a couple since Harris took over. Those are the sort you need to win to put yourself in the driving seat. Fail to win at least a couple of those big 6 and we will have too much to do from the other 7 matches. 

[chaddyrovers]

21 minutes ago, JHRover said:

Not really sure saying West Brom are in poor form is accurate at all. Seem to be doing perfectly well to me after a short wobble. Bilic an outstanding manager at this level with a very strong squad.

Derby and Cardiff tough places to go. Derby terrible away from home but very hard to beat at Pride Park. Cardiff right next to us in the table and have only lost a couple since Harris took over. Those are the sort you need to win to put yourself in the driving seat. Fail to win at least a couple of those big 6 and we will have too much to do from the other 7 matches. 

You are correct on the West Brom point so my apologises. Last 6 games form table has them 8th. Rovers are 1st btw. Bilic is an outstanding manager at this level. Done very well. Good squad there. 

our form table is https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/formtabelle/wettbewerb/GB2?saison_id=2019&min=28&max=34

Edited February 17, 2020 by chaddyrovers