Can we make the Playoffs?

[Bigdoggsteel]

On 16/02/2020 at 12:54, dingles staying down 4ever said:

I used the Oldham game as an example, other examples of that season is using Chapman at home and battering Portsmouth then changing the following week against Wigan and going defensive. He concentrates too much on the opposition's strengths rather than ours. Even the most pro Mowbray supporter has to admit he has his favourites which can be detrimental to the team.

Maybe I am being over citical in saying that it is despite him and he has made good signings but nobody can call him a tactical genius. Inspirational managers make bold changes which change games, do things that you,as a supporter, cannot see and inspire by their sheer presence. Can you say that about Mowbray?

Likewise watching the team when it is struggling, you think what will Mowbray will do to change it round. We all think well thats us beat then. It is not all down to him obviously but he is paid to lead and inspire. I just keep thinking if we had a manager that inspires then we could be in a higher position. 

It's Mowbrays team now though. His signings, his promotions from the youth set up. I don't think you can just compartmentalize what he is responsible for in a way that looks to not give him some credit, at some point!  

[Prelude]

On 01/02/2020 at 13:53, Rogerb said:

You lost me when you said you liked Walton. Not a top six keeper in my opinion

 

[Blue blood]

On 16/02/2020 at 19:20, Dreams of 1995 said:

In fact, fuck it, in light of The Bores comments about facts I decided I'd do a little research this evening. We are talking about "balance of the team", or what that phrase basically means, are we any good with Gallagher on the wing?

I'll have to add a caveat in that maybe google has the line ups / formation wrong however all of this info was taken from google:

Results with Sam Gallagher starting up front:

Won - 2

Drawn - 2

Lost - 7

Results with Sam Gallagher starting on the wing:

Won - 6

Drawn - 4

Lost - 2

There are 10 games unaccounted in which he either did not play or did not start.

Of the games he did not play we:

Won - 3

Lost - 1

Of the games he came on as a sub we:

Won - 3

Drawn - 2

Lost - 1

So, by collating the data I get it as we win more than we lose when Gallagher plays; we win more than we lose when he's on the wing; we win more times when he starts on the wing than when he starts up front; Gallagher is an effective substitution in order to not lose a game.

If we are talking about balance of the team then one would have to assume that more wins = a more balanced team. Do we lose balance by starting SG on the wing? Not according to the results. Do the results trend towards Gallagher being more effective out wide right than up front? Yes.

Of particular interest is that I don't get Gallagher down as playing up front since the Leeds game. Since then we've only lost 2 games in which he's started.

Is Sam Gallagher a terrible failure of a signing? No.

Are fans ignoring the 'facts' and only patrolling these boards with 'glib ad hominem quips'? Yes but it isn't those that try and defend Mowbray or Gallagher.

Note: I value any fact checking you may want to do. I did this in approx. 15 mins by looking at line ups / results and putting it together. I may have errors- point them out to me and I will change the results accordingly.

Note: Just noticed original post only accounted for 26 games. I have updated to suit all 33 games now. Stats have increased in favour of SG being on the wing.

 

On 16/02/2020 at 19:32, Hasta said:

Stats can be misleading. You have shown.....

Games won when Gallagher starts - 34%

Games won when Gallagher doesn't start - 66%

Interesting stuff bar some of the antagonism in defence of Gally! 

Another factor to consider is in some of those games did Gally move positions from the wing to up front? And what effect did that have? I am pretty confident he did in a couple of games which may have given us more balance to see games out. (Downing switching from right to left is another example of this.) 

The only plus of Gally on the wing is that he is more physical and robust and perhaps contributes more defensively than a traditional wide player. That being the case and the style we are aiming for I think Bennett would do a much better job in that role. Personally though I think we have it right with neither in the team and a bit of a different style. 

I do worry the £5 mill tag gets games for Gally when it shouldn't. Like I said even if that's the style we want to play, we have better players suited to it. Perhaps Gally's best role is a plan B striker whipping balls into the box for him. Anything else long term won't work as he doesn't have the attributes for it.n

[Dreams of 1995]

33 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

 

Interesting stuff bar some of the antagonism in defence of Gally! 

Another factor to consider is in some of those games did Gally move positions from the wing to up front? And what effect did that have? I am pretty confident he did in a couple of games which may have given us more balance to see games out. (Downing switching from right to left is another example of this.) 

The only plus of Gally on the wing is that he is more physical and robust and perhaps contributes more defensively than a traditional wide player. That being the case and the style we are aiming for I think Bennett would do a much better job in that role. Personally though I think we have it right with neither in the team and a bit of a different style. 

I do worry the £5 mill tag gets games for Gally when it shouldn't. Like I said even if that's the style we want to play, we have better players suited to it. Perhaps Gally's best role is a plan B striker whipping balls into the box for him. Anything else long term won't work as he doesn't have the attributes for it.n

Yeah man it is a bit of a hap hazard statistic but without the data from things such as Opta it's impossible to put anything together with more accuracy. We do score most of our goals early on though and the line ups suggest he did start those games on the wing.

With any luck we sign a right winger in the summer and this argument is dealt with then. We need to find some players who can can find the byline and cross the ball, it's a timeless skill because it is so hard to deal with. 

[Blue blood]

41 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

Yeah man it is a bit of a hap hazard statistic but without the data from things such as Opta it's impossible to put anything together with more accuracy. We do score most of our goals early on though and the line ups suggest he did start those games on the wing.

With any luck we sign a right winger in the summer and this argument is dealt with then. We need to find some players who can can find the byline and cross the ball, it's a timeless skill because it is so hard to deal with. 

The goals early is a good point I hadn't considered. 

Long term i can't see it being good for Gally's game or development though as not sure anywhere else would play him in that position. 

Totally agree about the summer! No arguments there. 

[Rogerb]

1 hour ago, Prelude said:

 

And the previous 17 games show us where in the league?. Will be more than happy if proved wrong after 46 games and would be first to say Walton has improved in recent weeks however needs to be performing consistently. Statistical snap shots don't alter the fact he has difficulty getting down to shots near him.

[philipl]

That table makes Brentford v Rovers the top two clashing...

[Bigdoggsteel]

11 minutes ago, philipl said:

That table makes Brentford v Rovers the top two clashing...

Ya,Saturday is going to be tricky. I looked at their home form, it's fairly ominous. 

[speeeeeeedie]

2 hours ago, Rogerb said:

And the previous 17 games show us where in the league?. Will be more than happy if proved wrong after 46 games and would be first to say Walton has improved in recent weeks however needs to be performing consistently. Statistical snap shots don't alter the fact he has difficulty getting down to shots near him.

After 16 games Rovers were in 18th spot on 18 points.

first 16 - 1.125 pts per game

next 17 - 1.88 pts. per game.

If Rovers keep that average up for the last 13 games they will make the playoffs. 2 points per game over a season will get a team automatic promotion.

Edited February 18, 2020 by speeeeeeedie

[simongarnerisgod]

kind of feeling that the play offs are just a step to far this season,with all the injuries to key players,it will find us out sooner or later,however,the big question is will we backed backed financially for a proper push at promotion next season, keeping lenihan is vital,3 or 4 more quality additions and there is no reason why we can`t challenge

[dingles staying down 4ever]

19 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

It's Mowbrays team now though. His signings, his promotions from the youth set up. I don't think you can just compartmentalize what he is responsible for in a way that looks to not give him some credit, at some point!  

Fair enough but likewise he has to take his fair share of the blame when things aren't right. Remember it is only part way through this season that the majority on here wanted him to go.

There are some things he has done well and I will give credit but I actually think this team coulld of been higher in the league with a better manager. 

I just dont like managers who concentrate on the opposition to the detriment of his own team rather than concentrate on giving the opposition something to worry about. Hopefully Mowbray has learnt his lesson, prove me wrong and I can give credit to him.

[Bigdoggsteel]

3 hours ago, dingles staying down 4ever said:

Fair enough but likewise he has to take his fair share of the blame when things aren't right. Remember it is only part way through this season that the majority on here wanted him to go.

There are some things he has done well and I will give credit but I actually think this team coulld of been higher in the league with a better manager. 

I just dont like managers who concentrate on the opposition to the detriment of his own team rather than concentrate on giving the opposition something to worry about. Hopefully Mowbray has learnt his lesson, prove me wrong and I can give credit to him.

I think some fans give credit where due, but also can point out where there are issues. However, I do think some just won't give him credit for anything. Stuff like we are doing well in spite of him, nonsense. Or that he was lucky we got injuries, rubbish. Or that his signings are poor, even though 6 of his signings started at the weekend.

I agree that sometimes he can be frustrating building up the opposition too much, but I believe that may be a good thing if we are in the play off mix-keeps feet on the ground.  I think that him doing that was a problem in league 1, but eventually it turned into a positive as we didn't underestimate anyone. 

[superniko]

I’ve attached the league table for the past 6 seasons at the 33 game point. 

This year is the lowest points total for 3rd, 4th, 5th AND 6th at this point! 
The last time 6th had only 53 points at this stage it took just 73 points for 5th and 72 points for 6th (we finished 8th with 70 points)

This is our best chance yet, I think something as low as 70 points could do it when you consider how many teams have to play each other and the lower than usual total so far. 
The Stoke and Swansea games are massive!

 

Edited February 19, 2020 by superniko
Posted too early

[bluebruce]

On 18/02/2020 at 12:27, Dreams of 1995 said:

 

With any luck we sign a right winger in the summer and this argument is dealt with then. We need to find some players who can can find the byline and cross the ball, it's a timeless skill because it is so hard to deal with. 

We won't be looking for those, because it's not our game under Mowbray. We don't play a game based on crossing. We don't have bodies in the box with aerial ability to take advantage.

I believe this is one of the reasons Nyambe doesn't have any assists despite his surging runs. Yes his crossing needs work anyway, but we don't tend to have good options in there to send it to direct. Nyambe has been involved in several goals, by marauding and laying it off to someone, then a pass or two, or a ricochet, finds its way to someone who can finish it off on the deck. But direct crossing to someone who nods it home isn't something we really do outside of set pieces.

[philipl]

Win at Brentford and the play-offs will almost become an expectation.

Lose at Brentford and the gap might well be too big with the games we have remaining.

Showed the table to my Spanish colleague and his reaction was we could still make 2nd...

 

[Bigdoggsteel]

2 hours ago, philipl said:

Win at Brentford and the play-offs will almost become an expectation.

Lose at Brentford and the gap might well be too big with the games we have remaining.

Showed the table to my Spanish colleague and his reaction was we could still make 2nd...

 

Shur of course we could. Imagine we went on one of our winning runs now

Conversely imagine we went on one of our forays to the dark side

It's there for the taking 

 

[Bigdoggsteel]

On 19/02/2020 at 23:04, superniko said:

I’ve attached the league table for the past 6 seasons at the 33 game point. 

This year is the lowest points total for 3rd, 4th, 5th AND 6th at this point! 
The last time 6th had only 53 points at this stage it took just 73 points for 5th and 72 points for 6th (we finished 8th with 70 points)

This is our best chance yet, I think something as low as 70 points could do it when you consider how many teams have to play each other and the lower than usual total so far. 
The Stoke and Swansea games are massive!

 

Nice one man 

Jesus some tipping by Brighton 

[Hasta]

Derby v Fulham tonight.

Preferred result a draw?

[Admiral Nelsen]

16 minutes ago, Hasta said:

Derby v Fulham tonight.

Preferred result a draw?

We'll probably only know in a few weeks, but I'd say so.

Really interesting one, as if we assume that we put the sort of form together that could get us to around 6th, then Fulham are on the cusp of being catchable, but equally we're just about catchable for an improving Derby.

Given that we've got Derby away in a few weeks and potentially could face Fulham in the play offs, the best outcome is probably them kicking each other off the park!

[JacknOry]

10 minutes ago, Admiral Nelsen said:

We'll probably only know in a few weeks, but I'd say so.

Really interesting one, as if we assume that we put the sort of form together that could get us to around 6th, then Fulham are on the cusp of being catchable, but equally we're just about catchable for an improving Derby.

Given that we've got Derby away in a few weeks and potentially could face Fulham in the play offs, the best outcome is probably them kicking each other off the park!

Injuries and suspensions aplenty would be nice

[superniko]

Derby for me. 
I think we’ll be above Fulham by the end of March. 

[Colt Seavers]

Judging by the look of Fulham tonight, I think we got it tactically wrong in showing them so much respect the other week. 

Hope we are a bit more proactive tomorrow.  

[Miker]

On 20/02/2020 at 10:04, superniko said:

I’ve attached the league table for the past 6 seasons at the 33 game point. 

This year is the lowest points total for 3rd, 4th, 5th AND 6th at this point! 
The last time 6th had only 53 points at this stage it took just 73 points for 5th and 72 points for 6th (we finished 8th with 70 points)

This is our best chance yet, I think something as low as 70 points could do it when you consider how many teams have to play each other and the lower than usual total so far. 
The Stoke and Swansea games are massive!

Interesting that we have our biggest point total in those last 6 seasons now as well.

I think 70 points would need to be enough to secure a playoff spot if we want to have a chance. I can see us hitting the 70 point mark but not more than that. 

[Mercer]

Definitely.

Been through the remaining fixtures and can see at least 23 points to take us to about 75 points.  There are a lot of winnable games in there including Stoke and Swansea this week.

I think there are far better footballing teams than Rovers, however, confidence and momentum go a long, long way in this league and we are riding our luck.

Eisenhower picked upon Napoleon's thoughts some hundred years or more later stating "I'd rather have a lucky general than a smart general" - think that's what Mowbray is!

 

Edited February 22, 2020 by Mercer

[Inglorious basturk]

Our inability to shut games down always seems to wipe away my initial optimism 

Edited February 23, 2020 by Inglorious basturk