Slow Build?

[Bigdoggsteel]

2 minutes ago, 47er said:

2 points---- Football transfer fees have gone up exponentially so your comparison falls down in that regard.

Secondly, Venkys, for some reason at that time, made no effort to get the best fee possible for Duffy or King. Ridiculously low.

Bowyer's record on transfers in is way better than Tony's I'm afraid.

My point doesn't fall down at all, because it is actually reality. The squad is worth more now, simple as that. Case closed. 

[SBlue]

3 hours ago, JoeH said:

Norwich wasn't a slow build... they came back up on PL money from their parachute payments...  Unless you mean Norwich of old which just like Burnley just isn't the same.

Burnley (& Norwich if thats when you mean) was a long time ago, the Championship has changed, much more money involved now...

Unsure about Norwich, remember hearing they had a big clear out and spent very little (it was used as an example of TM failing last year anyway?)

These were just off the top of my head.

Still struggling to get to 95%...

If recency is preferred -

Merely 1/3 of the teams promoted in the last two seasons have been “slow builds”.

How’s that sound?

Edited February 20, 2020 by S8 & Blue

[Guest]

Just now, S8 & Blue said:

Unsure about Norwich, remember hearing they had a big clear out and spent very little (it was used as an example of TM failing last year anyway?)

These we’re just off the top of my head.

Still struggling to get to 95%...

 

Merely 1/3 of the teams promoted in the last two seasons have been “slow builds”.

How’s that sound?

I've highlighted in Bold teams you could consider "slow builds"

Norwich City
Sheffield United
Aston Villa

Wolverhampton Wanderers
Cardiff City
Fulham

Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion (Murray, Duffy, Knockaert, Zamora, Bong, Skalak, Hemed)
Huddersfield Town

Burnley
Middlesbrough
Hull City

Bournemouth (Kenwyne Jones, Artur Boruc, Dan Gosling, Junior Stanislas, Callum Wilson, Andrew Surman)
Watford
Norwich (Grabban, Lafferty, Cuelar, Jerome, Dorrans, Van Wolfswinkel, Redmond, Olsson, Cash)

 

That's 3 out out 15. Might not be 95%, but FAR more than a third who either went for broke and bought promotion, or simply bounced straight back from PL relegation/using PL parachute payments.

It's around 80%. I wasn't a million miles away.

[SBlue]

Just now, JoeH said:

I've highlighted in Bold teams you could consider "slow builds"

Norwich City
Sheffield United
Aston Villa

Wolverhampton Wanderers
Cardiff City
Fulham

Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion (Murray, Duffy, Knockaert, Zamora, Bong, Skalak, Hemed)
Huddersfield Town

Burnley
Middlesbrough
Hull City

Bournemouth (Kenwyne Jones, Artur Boruc, Dan Gosling, Junior Stanislas, Callum Wilson, Andrew Surman)
Watford
Norwich (Grabban, Lafferty, Cuelar, Jerome, Dorrans, Van Wolfswinkel, Redmond, Olsson, Cash)

 

That's 3 out out 15. Might not be 95%, but FAR more than a third who either went for broke and bought promotion, or simply bounced straight back from PL relegation/using PL parachute payments.

It's around 80%. I wasn't a million miles away.

Ah thought Huddersfield was year before last tbh.

 

I just cannot countenance the idea that we should be gambling the financial health of the club in order to go up, nor do I think it is REQUIRED.

For every Wolves there is the chance of doing a Wednesday who had to sell their stadium and be left with an old overpaid squad failing FFP every year just for that day out at Wembley.

[Amo]

I can just imagine Souness telling Uncle Jack, "Yeah I need three seasons and seven transfer windows before we're ready for promotion"

Oh, but that's different. Souness had Dunn, Duff and Jansen. Nevermind all the dead weight in the squad that needed clearing out. The team had a weak spine and it didn't take long to build a new one.

Friedel, free. Hughes, free. Berkovic, loan. Bjornebye, peanuts. Curtis, Berg, Bent, couple mill each. Hignett was our biggest outlay and he spent much of the season out injured. All in all, the total cost was around the same we paid for Gallagher and Brereton. 

"Slow build" my ass.

[Mashed Potatoes]

4 minutes ago, Amo said:

I can just imagine Souness telling Uncle Jack, "Yeah I need three seasons and seven transfer windows before we're ready for promotion"

Oh, but that's different. Souness had Dunn, Duff and Jansen. Nevermind all the dead weight in the squad that needed clearing out. The team had a weak spine and it didn't take long to build a new one.

Friedel, free. Hughes, free. Berkovic, loan. Bjornebye, peanuts. Curtis, Berg, Bent, couple mill each. Hignett was our biggest outlay and he spent much of the season out injured. All in all, the total cost was around the same we paid for Gallagher and Brereton. 

"Slow build" my ass.

There is no comparison between 2000 and 2020. There was no FFP then and the financial muscle of the club was greater than the other clubs in the division - as you point out he also inherited some outstanding younger players.

[Amo]

Just now, Mashed Potatoes said:

There is no comparison between 2000 and 2020. There was no FFP then and the financial muscle of the club was greater than the other clubs in the division - as you point out he also inherited some outstanding younger players.

FFP didn't stop us wasting £12m on two strikers.  

The point is that Souness turned the squad into promotion contenders in one summer for a net spend of £1m.

Get your head out of Mowbray's ass for two seconds and you might smell the coffee.

[Mashed Potatoes]

4 minutes ago, Amo said:

FFP didn't stop us wasting £12m on two strikers.  

The point is that Souness turned the squad into promotion contenders in one summer for a net spend of £1m.

Get your head out of Mowbray's ass for two seconds and you might smell the coffee.

That you resort to abuse underlines the weakness of your argument.

In those days there was no transfer window so signings were not restricted to the summer; The likes of Friedel, Hughes and Begovic arrived later in the season and we did not become promotion contenders until about November. By the standards of the time Souness spent pretty heavily for the second tier.

[DE.]

Just a quick reminder that robust debate is fine, but throwing insults into the mix not so much. Play nice please.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, S8 & Blue said:

I just cannot countenance the idea that we should be gambling the financial health of the club in order to go up, nor do I think it is REQUIRED.

I agree. Personally I don't think we should be going the Aston Villa route and spending loads of money, and this season is probably the perfect example of a year when any club could get into the play offs. The poor form of some of the relegated sides as of recent seasons like Stoke City & Huddersfield Town have helped this. But simply "slow building" isn't really going to cut it. Unless we can pull it out of the bag this year, I can't see an opportunity coming along next year to get much closer.

Each year, the PL teams that come down come with EVEN more money and EVEN better players. Next year I can see 8 teams being significantly better than us, straight off the bat, based off current promotion and relegation standings/squads of the teams (minus loan players) etc...

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

If this was the league table next season, you'd have two of the three relegated PL sides going straight back up, lets guess at Norwich and West Ham, and probably have a side go up via the play offs having spent a ton in summer like Nottingham Forest for example. It's the same every year. Fulham (spent a fuck ton and bank rolled by PL money), West Brom (spent a fuck ton and bankrolled by PL money). 

Birmingham City
Brentford
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Blackburn Rovers
Bristol City
Charlton Athletic
Cardiff City
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Derby County
Huddersfield Town
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Millwall
Nottingham Forest
Norwich City
Preston North End
Peterborough United
QPR
Reading
Rotherham United
Sheffield Wednesday
Stoke City
Swansea City
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Watford
West Ham United
Wycombe Wanderers

*Teams in bold would easily have better squads than us next season when you take away loan signings from every team

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

The short answer as opposed to the long winded one I've given above is there's genuinely no point going for the slow route when it always almost fails. The only clubs who manage promotion via a slow build route do it on the back of insanely good management (Burnley), new tactical ideas never seen before in the CH (Sheffield United) or on the back of huge fan bases (Leeds United). 

We either go out and spend £25m to try and get promoted, or we don't. Spending £10m, or £5m, is just a wasted £5/10m that won't get us that much closer to the Play-Offs as a long term transfer strategy. We'd have to replace Tosin (easily a £5m footballer, Walton who'd cost maybe £2.5/3m on the market, Cunningham who Cardiff would probably want £2m for) and that would be nearly £10m just to maintain the squad we have now for next year. I'd estimate you'd have to add at least another £15m worth of talent onto that list to even consider a top 6 finish for the next season and the season after that etc...

Edited February 20, 2020 by JoeH

[Mashed Potatoes]

5 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I agree. Personally I don't think we should be going the Aston Villa route and spending loads of money, and this season is probably the perfect example of a year when any club could get into the play offs. The poor form of some of the relegated sides as of recent seasons like Stoke City & Huddersfield Town have helped this. But simply "slow building" isn't really going to cut it. Unless we can pull it out of the bag this year, I can't see an opportunity coming along next year to get much closer.

Each year, the PL teams that come down come with EVEN more money and EVEN better players. Next year I can see 8 teams being significantly better than us, straight off the bat, based off current promotion and relegation standings/squads of the teams (minus loan players) etc...

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

If this was the league table next season, you'd have two of the three relegated PL sides going straight back up, lets guess at Norwich and West Ham, and probably have a side go up via the play offs having spent a ton in summer like Nottingham Forest for example. It's the same every year. Fulham (spent a fuck ton and bank rolled by PL money), West Brom (spent a fuck ton and bankrolled by PL money). 

Birmingham City
Brentford
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Blackburn Rovers
Bristol City
Charlton Athletic
Cardiff City
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Derby County
Huddersfield Town
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Millwall
Nottingham Forest
Norwich City
Preston North End
Peterborough United
QPR
Reading
Rotherham United
Sheffield Wednesday
Stoke City
Swansea City
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Watford
West Ham United
Wycombe Wanderers

*Teams in bold would easily have better squads than us next season when you take away loan signings from every team

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

The short answer as opposed to the long winded one I've given above is there's genuinely no point going for the slow route when it always almost fails. The only clubs who manage promotion via a slow build route do it on the back of insanely good management (Burnley), new tactical ideas never seen before in the CH (Sheffield United) or on the back of huge fan bases (Leeds United). 

We either go out and spend £25m to try and get promoted, or we don't. Spending £10m, or £5m, is just a wasted £5/10m that won't get us that much closer to the Play-Offs as a long term transfer strategy. We'd have to replace Tosin (easily a £5m footballer, Walton who'd cost maybe £2.5/3m on the market, Cunningham who Cardiff would probably want £2m for) and that would be nearly £10m just to maintain the squad we have now for next year. I'd estimate you'd have to add at least another £15m worth of talent onto that list to even consider a top 6 finish for the next season and the season after that etc...

Players of the calibre of Tosin,Walton and Cunningham can be brought in via loans - we've proven that.

 You are missing the point that young players like Nyambe,Armstrong,JRC,Buckley,Travis will probably be better next season that this as they get more experience. There is no reason to imagine that a team which the league table shows is already close to the top 6- and which is top of the table of the last 17 games - cannot be good enough to be in the top 6 next season without this additional expenditure.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Mashed Potatoes said:

You are missing the point that young players like Nyambe,Armstrong,JRC,Buckley,Travis will probably be better next season that this as they get more experience.

As will every other clubs younger players. Look at Swansea City, Bristol City, Preston North End... they've all got young players who'll likely improve, JUST LIKE US.

[tomphil]

He/she keeps missing that point purposely.

A ton of other clubs are doing the same as us trying to blood promising youth whilst trying to get the blend of experience and decent players plus your season in season out plodders right. I love how some keep trying to make out something unique is happening here it isn't it is just the way of the world in the championship. 

You have to use every ounce you have to get ahead of the game, some clubs have parachutes some have constant big crowds. Others are able every now and then to punch above their weight in transfers, you really really have to make that count !

[Mashed Potatoes]

Just now, tomphil said:

He/she keeps missing that point purposely.

A ton of other clubs are doing the same as us trying to blood promising youth whilst trying to get the blend of experience and decent players plus your season in season out plodders right. I love how some keep trying to make out something unique is happening here it isn't it is just the way of the world in the championship. 

You have to use every ounce you have to get ahead of the game, some clubs have parachutes some have constant big crowds. Others are able every now and then to punch above their weight in transfers, you really really have to make that count !

You also have to observe FFP !

[tomphil]

5 minutes ago, Mashed Potatoes said:

You also have to observe FFP !

Like everybody else !

Cut your obsession with it you've already been told by the club they are mindful but it isn't a concern yet. At no point have they said we can't fund signings and we have to stick with this squad and manager until the cycle starts again.

Only you like to keep alluding to that in your project fear and it still doesn't alter the fact that 12 mill SHOULD have been put to better use !!!!

Edited February 20, 2020 by tomphil

[Mashed Potatoes]

Just now, tomphil said:

Like everybody else !

Cut your obsession with it you've already been told by the club they are mindful but it isn't a concern yet. At no point have they said we can't fund signings and we have to stick with this squad and manager until the cycle starts again.

Only you like to keep alluding to that in your project fear.

FFP was raised by me because the poster above was talking about a transfer spend of £25m at which point it would become a concern !

I have no interest in project fear - unlike others back in the autumn I was one of the posters saying with confidence that we would not be relegated. I was right.

[MarkBRFC]

Still think a "slow build" in this league is a complete myth.

Just because someone has been in this league for 10 years, and then gets promoted doesn't mean they have had a slow build to promotion.

Sometimes, everything just aligns for that certain club to go up, a consistent 11 where everyone is organised and knows there jobs, a few of the "bigger clubs" having off seasons, hitting form at a good time and picking up momentum etc.

 

[Pedro]

18 hours ago, The Hypnotic said:

I think we have a more balanced squad since then, although I take your point that bowyer achieved a very respectable final league position. 
 

Nevertheless, we have been relegated since bowyer was at the helm so you can’t deny that TM has clearly improved the squad, the ethos of the club, and the league position. I’d also like to suggest that the youth prospects making a name for themselves owe a lot to being blooded and kept in the squad by TM, so arguably we are progressing in development terms as well.

The club certainly feels better and TM has bought few good players but in truth, out of the 22+ signings he has made, there has also been a hell of a lot of wasted funds and pointless signings too.  The spine of the team in L1 and last year (Raya, Mulgrew, Bennett, Lenihan, Graham, Nyambe, Evans, Williams, Samuel, Conway etc.)  were already there but Mowbray's signing of Dack was his masterstroke and Smallwood, astute.

My main criticism would be there doesn't seem a genuine belief that we can kick onwards and it has developed a small team mentality. Like under Bowyer, I honestly think a lot of the tools are there, they just needed to be freed up sooner and utilised properly - we definitely wasted games earlier in the season with the square pegs in round holes experiment - but at least that's been cut down to just one or two now. I'm glad our youth players are getting a chance now - although I'm not sure where the thanks are owed for the excellent set up - a number of key people over the years and ultimately Venkys I suppose because despite the fears, they invested in it and didn't dismantle it.

Mowbray has led us to safety already so credit where it is due, that's job number one done - but come the end of the season if that is all we get, it just isn't enough for a club of our size, needs and outlay (in my opinion). There's nothing to lose this season and everything to gain now.  We have shot ourselves in the foot a number of times this season, whether that be selections, tactics or mistakes on the field - we must really go for it though because if we are also-rans, our better players simply won't stick around.  If we can make it into the playoffs, who knows?  I certainly fear nobody else in this league.

Edited February 20, 2020 by Pedro

[Pedro]

4 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

This is completely incorrect. How in gods name do you come to that conclusion? Dack alone is worth more than the combined sales under Bowyer. Armstrong, Lenihan, Travis etc etc 

How in God's name?? Haha, comical that.

I'm happy to see past the fact Dack currently has no value and pretend that he is worth £10-15m but Bowyer had Duffy (a long-term Premier League player) Dann (a long-term Premier league player) Hanley (a current premier league player) Rhodes (has had x amount of muti-million pound moves and played in the Premier League) Gestede (same as Rhodes & played in the Premier League) Cairney (very highly coveted and played in the Premier League). I'm sure I've forgotten someone else but regardless, you've got a very short memory or ridiculously high valuation of Dack if you think he is worth more than them combined.

 

[Pedro]

1 hour ago, Mashed Potatoes said:

You also have to observe FFP !

Funny how times change. We were pointing this out to YOU before.  Now you're the self-proclaimed expert on it ?

[Mashed Potatoes]

31 minutes ago, Pedro said:

Funny how times change. We were pointing this out to YOU before.  Now you're the self-proclaimed expert on it ?

Really ?

[chaddyrovers]

 

[Pedro]

32 minutes ago, Mashed Potatoes said:

Really ?

Yes, really. During a number of your deny any criticism at all costs defences of Mowbray.  

 

Like a number of the more balanced said (who you like to simply refer to as the Mowbray Out brigade), the wasteful big money signings brought FFP right back to the door.

Only hindsight and an interview in the Telegraph has shown you that it actually has.

 

Anyway, it is going to be a very slow build if we don't sell a big asset this summer or rake in some serious revenue.  It's looking like Nyambe and Armstrong will command the highest feed imo.

[tomphil]

Selling Arma now becomes the scary thought, who'd have said that in the first third of the season ?

Quite possibly for him to be then told no funds to replace him seeing as BB and Gallagher have been signed front loaded to prepare for Dacks eventual sale. Would mean yet another system change and another get on your knees and pray one of the others hits form.

One of the others probably being Samuel as i predicted all along he'll get another deal.  Still at least Dack should be back for second half of next season. What a massive tonic that might be.

[Adam C]

2 hours ago, Pedro said:

The club certainly feels better and TM has bought few good players but in truth, out of the 22+ signings he has made, there has also been a hell of a lot of wasted funds and pointless signings too.  The spine of the team in L1 and last year (Raya, Mulgrew, Bennett, Lenihan, Graham, Nyambe, Evans, Williams, Samuel, Conway etc.)  were already there but Mowbray's signing of Dack was his masterstroke and Smallwood, astute.

My main criticism would be there doesn't seem a genuine belief that we can kick onwards and it has developed a small team mentality. Like under Bowyer, I honestly think a lot of the tools are there, they just needed to be freed up sooner and utilised properly - we definitely wasted games earlier in the season with the square pegs in round holes experiment - but at least that's been cut down to just one or two now. I'm glad our youth players are getting a chance now - although I'm not sure where the thanks are owed for the excellent set up - a number of key people over the years and ultimately Venkys I suppose because despite the fears, they invested in it and didn't dismantle it.

Mowbray has led us to safety already so credit where it is due, that's job number one done - but come the end of the season if that is all we get, it just isn't enough for a club of our size, needs and outlay (in my opinion). There's nothing to lose this season and everything to gain now.  We have shot ourselves in the foot a number of times this season, whether that be selections, tactics or mistakes on the field - we must really go for it though because if we are also-rans, our better players simply won't stick around.  If we can make it into the playoffs, who knows?  I certainly fear nobody else in this league.

Every manager makes a few dud signings though. Fergie brought djemba djemba and Bebe to United, Arsene Wenger thought that Francis Jeffers was a premier league great in the making. At least TM has brought some truly great players to us, many coaches don’t even manage to bring decent players to a club. 
 

I see where you’re coming from with the small club mentality. I guess we differ greatly on this point. I’m happy for us to improve on last season, playoffs would be great but for me as long as we’re closer to the top than last year then I think TM is continuing to succeed and should be allowed more time. 
 

I’d love for us to push into the playoffs even if I think promotion is a step too far with this squad and the injuries we’ve suffered from. I agree that if we don’t make it then some players might want to leave but we’ll survive and hopefully use the funds to strengthen the squad and try again next time. 
 

I think we both want our club to be successful but you’re less patient (or more ambitious) than I am!