Slow Build?

[Mashed Potatoes]

  On 20/02/2020 at 17:39, Pedro said:

Yes, really. During a number of your deny any criticism at all costs defences of Mowbray.  

 

Like a number of the more balanced said (who you like to simply refer to as the Mowbray Out brigade), the wasteful big money signings brought FFP right back to the door.

Only hindsight and an interview in the Telegraph has shown you that it actually has.

 

Anyway, it is going to be a very slow build if we don't sell a big asset this summer or rake in some serious revenue.  It's looking like Nyambe and Armstrong will command the highest feed imo.

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I've never denied the existence of FFP ! Mowbray's signings have brought the club to the brink of the play offs. Stop trying to rewrite history.

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 20/02/2020 at 16:18, Pedro said:

How in God's name?? Haha, comical that.

I'm happy to see past the fact Dack currently has no value and pretend that he is worth £10-15m but Bowyer had Duffy (a long-term Premier League player) Dann (a long-term Premier league player) Hanley (a current premier league player) Rhodes (has had x amount of muti-million pound moves and played in the Premier League) Gestede (same as Rhodes & played in the Premier League) Cairney (very highly coveted and played in the Premier League). I'm sure I've forgotten someone else but regardless, you've got a very short memory or ridiculously high valuation of Dack if you think he is worth more than them combined.

 

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Yes,but we have more than Dack,don't we? Armstrong to name 1. Plus you are naming players Bowyer didn't sign. Funny you just include Dack(along with ridiculously saying he is worth nothing) , plus funny you have to name some of the above as "premier League players" when they clearly weren't in any meaningful way,  Cairney and Gestede-really? 

On Cairney, let's not exaggerate how "coveted" he was. He left for less than 3 million after being hit and miss here. He was no Dack. 

The sale of Dack alone would bring in more than the combined sale of Bowyers signings, or close enough anyway. 

Edited February 21, 2020 by Bigdoggsteel

[Amo]

  On 20/02/2020 at 18:21, Mashed Potatoes said:

Mowbray's signings have brought the club to the brink of the play offs.  

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Whoopee shit. 

We need to win the playoffs, let alone get "to the brink" of them.

Being "nearly men" counts for nothing when you have to balance unsustainable levels of debt and FFP. We know how quickly things can change. Suddenly you need to sell your best players fast, squad declines, and League One beckons. Promotion or bust.

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 10:44, Amo said:

Whoopee shit. 

We need to win the playoffs, let alone get "to the brink" of them.

Being "nearly men" counts for nothing when you have to balance unsustainable levels of debt and FFP. We know how quickly things can change. Suddenly you need to sell your best players fast, squad declines, and League One beckons. Promotion or bust.

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The levels of debt are irrelevant as long as Venkys are here,plus we are safe with regards FFP. Do you actually do any research on what you babble on about? 

Obviously winning is the goal, but I think rational people would say getting into the play offs would represent a great season and noticeable progress. 

It's not promotion or bust. It's spend more than your budget and bust. Which we haven't done. Actually I'm pretty sure you were blowing the horn to spend more money that we don't have. That's what gets you in trouble. Look around the league. 

[tomphil]

Longer term it is probably promotion or bust, just one season in the Prem can alter things massively for a club in our situation.  If it's overseen correctly of course.

Sitting in the middle or around the play offs forever means a constant flow of a having a good player to sell or a fire sale every 3 or 4 years. Eventually you'll run out of steam with that.

[DE.]

  On 21/02/2020 at 10:17, Bigdoggsteel said:

On Cairney, let's not exaggerate how "coveted" he was. He left for less than 3 million after being hit and miss here. He was no Dack. 

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Tbf I can remember almost everyone being stunned at how little Cairney was sold for. Absolutely disgraceful that imo, total panic upon realising we were in serious trouble FFP-wise. Evidently nobody was keeping an eye on it until it was too late. 

Also I would argue the reason Cairney was so ineffective for us was because Bowyer kept playing him on LW where he was nowhere near as useful as when he played through the middle. Problem is at that point in time we didn't really play with an 'in the hole' Dack-type of forward. It was more about putting in crosses than playing through the middle, so for Cairney to get in the middle Bowyer would have had to sacrifice one of Lowe/Evans/Williamson and that was not going to happen.

[tomphil]

As long as that level of losses and even the debt wherever it is are around we are one step away from being a Bolton.  Yes it's ok whilst Vs fund it but taps have been turned off before and that led to relegation quickly.

If they pulled out or found they couldn't sustain those losses every year anymore we go quickly up the creek. Everything was hunky dory at notlob until the kettle element man had a change of heart. He even wrote off about 100 million of debt but they still went tits up.

Just one season in the Prem would've financially saved them, for a good while at least. No reason why it won't end any different here if we don't find a way up sooner rather that later.

Those who just assume Venkys will sustain another decade of sitting in the middle of the championship losing 10 million plus per season probably need to have a rethink.  Absolutely anything could happen their side of the fence in that time.

Edited February 21, 2020 by tomphil

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 11:25, DE. said:

Tbf I can remember almost everyone being stunned at how little Cairney was sold for. Absolutely disgraceful that imo, total panic upon realising we were in serious trouble FFP-wise. Evidently nobody was keeping an eye on it until it was too late. 

Also I would argue the reason Cairney was so ineffective for us was because Bowyer kept playing him on LW where he was nowhere near as useful as when he played through the middle. Problem is at that point in time we didn't really play with an 'in the hole' Dack-type of forward. It was more about putting in crosses than playing through the middle, so for Cairney to get in the middle Bowyer would have had to sacrifice one of Lowe/Evans/Williamson and that was not going to happen.

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Ya, I agree with all of that, but we were discussing whose signings created more value. We did sell Cairney for less than he was worth, but it wasn't like we sold Dack for 3 million, we probably should have gotten around 5 for him. 

[Crimpshrine]

  On 21/02/2020 at 10:51, Bigdoggsteel said:

The levels of debt are irrelevant as long as Venkys are here,

plus we are safe with regards FFP.

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The debt is very relevant because it will put off potential buyers if Venky's decide to sell. I know you stipulated 'while Venky's are here' but that is so shortsighted.

As for FFP, what makes you think we are safe? To quote SW, recorded in the fans forum minutes '"We are on the threshold and are very limited to what we can do". Do you know something the CEO doesn't ?

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 13:29, Crimpshrine said:

The debt is very relevant because it will put off potential buyers if Venky's decide to sell. I know you stipulated 'while Venky's are here' but that is so shortsighted.

As for FFP, what makes you think we are safe? To quote SW, recorded in the fans forum minutes '"We are on the threshold and are very limited to what we can do". Do you know something the CEO doesn't ?

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Venkys couldn't put the club up for sell unless they paid the debt off. How is that short sighted? Do you know something we don't?

Ya that's what he said and we didn't spend anything in January, so it sounds like we are keeping the right side of it. Might have to sell someone too,but it has always been like that. 

Edited February 21, 2020 by Bigdoggsteel

[Crimpshrine]

  On 21/02/2020 at 14:17, Bigdoggsteel said:

Venkys couldn't put the club up for sell unless they paid the debt off. How is that short sighted? Do you know something we don't?

Ya that's what he said and we didn't spend anything in January, so it sounds like we are keeping the right side of it. Might have to sell someone too,but it has always been like that. 

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No, I don't know anything you don't regarding Venky's. I could never pretend to understand why they are continuing to throw money away on a business they seem to have little interest in. 

Do they need to clear the debt before selling, you may be right? I just presumed they would have to negotiate a selling price that they would include an agreement on the debt. In theory, isn't the debt just what the owners have paid for buying more shares in the club. They can sell these for whatever they want but they will never get back what they have put in. The higher the 'debt' the more money they will be asking for if they decide to sell.

There must come a point when they decide enough is enough and at that point the debt must become relevant. But who knows?  I just hate seeing the figures going up year upon year and never any real statement of intent from the owners. 

 

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 14:53, Crimpshrine said:

No, I don't know anything you don't regarding Venky's. I could never pretend to understand why they are continuing to throw money away on a business they seem to have little interest in. 

Do they need to clear the debt before selling, you may be right? I just presumed they would have to negotiate a selling price that they would include an agreement on the debt. In theory, isn't the debt just what the owners have paid for buying more shares in the club. They can sell these for whatever they want but they will never get back what they have put in. The higher the 'debt' the more money they will be asking for if they decide to sell.

There must come a point when they decide enough is enough and at that point the debt must become relevant. But who knows?  I just hate seeing the figures going up year upon year and never any real statement of intent from the owners. 

 

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The only way they will sell us if we get promoted. No one will take us with that debt and they won't write it off to sell the club. That sweet,sweet PL money is the only way we will be attractive to buyers and make it realistic that Venkys to write the debt off. In my opinion! 

To be fair to them, even though they prob don't deserve that, they are putting money in. I mean that is their obligation,but as of now, they aren't the worst owners. Of course that's only if we look at Mowbrays time here. 

I understand the fear that we could go backwards again. I just think that Mowbray has and is doing a lot to stabilise the club. 

Edited February 21, 2020 by Bigdoggsteel

[Crimpshrine]

  On 21/02/2020 at 14:58, Bigdoggsteel said:

I understand the fear that we could go backwards again. I just think that Mowbray has and is doing a lot to stabilise the club. 

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Not disputing Mowbray's influence but I have lost the ability to just concentrate on the football like I used to. I always have a feeling of resentment about the shadowy goings-on behind the scenes.

Give me a penniless Bill Fox with lots of honesty and endeavour any day. Even if it means playing at a lower level. I was happy supporting Rovers back then. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 15:18, Crimpshrine said:

Not disputing Mowbray's influence but I have lost the ability to just concentrate on the football like I used to. I always have a feeling of resentment about the shadowy goings-on behind the scenes.

Give me a penniless Bill Fox with lots of honesty and endeavour any day. Even if it means playing at a lower level. I was happy supporting Rovers back then. 

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We ain't going anywhere with that set up these days ,unfortunately. 

[Blue blood]

  On 21/02/2020 at 14:58, Bigdoggsteel said:

The only way they will sell us if we get promoted. No one will take us with that debt and they won't write it off to sell the club. That sweet,sweet PL money is the only way we will be attractive to buyers and make it realistic that Venkys to write the debt off. In my opinion! 

To be fair to them, even though they prob don't deserve that, they are putting money in. I mean that is their obligation,but as of now, they aren't the worst owners. Of course that's only if we look at Mowbrays time here. 

I understand the fear that we could go backwards again. I just think that Mowbray has and is doing a lot to stabilise the club. 

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Dispute this massively. They are amongst the worst owners ever. Even now in what is agreed their best run as owners they are still pretty terrible. TM has gone on an unprecedented bad run and stayed in place, our managers are chosen by an agency, the current chap has his best mate as CEO, we're not working hard to get round FFP (like seemingly every other club is) we had a massive £7 mill transfer on an unknown player who looks a dud and well over market value and we've not been in the playoffs. That's a pretty poor record and that's the best of them. 

Especially the influence of the agency in manager (and possibly player) selection and Waggot's links to TM being the most serious and damaging issues to me. A terrible way to be as a club. 

[Pedro]

  On 21/02/2020 at 10:17, Bigdoggsteel said:

Yes,but we have more than Dack,don't we? Armstrong to name 1. Plus you are naming players Bowyer didn't sign. Funny you just include Dack(along with ridiculously saying he is worth nothing) , plus funny you have to name some of the above as "premier League players" when they clearly weren't in any meaningful way,  Cairney and Gestede-really? 

On Cairney, let's not exaggerate how "coveted" he was. He left for less than 3 million after being hit and miss here. He was no Dack. 

The sale of Dack alone would bring in more than the combined sale of Bowyers signings, or close enough anyway. 

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You are talking absolute nonsense. Dack currently has no value - that's a sad fact. Despite your claim, at his fittest and best, he isn't worth more than the combined total of those I listed - which is another fact.  

Duffy went for £5m +

Dann £4.5m

Hanley £5m +

Cairney £3m

Rhodes £8m 

Gestede £6m

 

Also, I have no idea why you are trying to bring who bought who into play...oh yes I do - to strengthen that nonsensical arguement of yours.

 

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 17:05, Blue blood said:

Dispute this massively. They are amongst the worst owners ever. Even now in what is agreed their best run as owners they are still pretty terrible. TM has gone on an unprecedented bad run and stayed in place, our managers are chosen by an agency, the current chap has his best mate as CEO, we're not working hard to get round FFP (like seemingly every other club is) we had a massive £7 mill transfer on an unknown player who looks a dud and well over market value and we've not been in the playoffs. That's a pretty poor record and that's the best of them. 

Especially the influence of the agency in manager (and possibly player) selection and Waggot's links to TM being the most serious and damaging issues to me. A terrible way to be as a club. 

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I feel bad for you that you have such a negative outlook. The reality is we can't ignore the past, agreed, however we are doing well this season and I for one will enjoy that while it lasts. 

[Blue blood]

  On 21/02/2020 at 17:25, Bigdoggsteel said:

I feel bad for you that you have such a negative outlook. The reality is we can't ignore the past, agreed, however we are doing well this season and I for one will enjoy that while it lasts. 

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Its not negative but pretty factual I would say. I'm really enjoying us doing well too - really enjoying it - but even taking a snapshot of the now (by that I mean TMs reign) there are still a bucket load of issues. I've not gone into any pre TM. Sure it's going ok on the pitch but that doesn't make the issues disappear. And long term they are going to hurt us. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 17:25, Pedro said:

You are talking absolute nonsense. Dack currently has no value - that's a sad fact. Despite your claim, at his fittest and best, he isn't worth more than the combined total of those I listed - which is another fact.  

Duffy went for £5m +

Dann £4.5m

Hanley £5m +

Cairney £3m

Rhodes £8m 

Gestede £6m

 

Also, I have no idea why you are trying to bring who bought who into play...oh yes I do - to strengthen that nonsensical arguement of yours.

 

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Dack has value though, I don't think anyone else disagrees with that. 

Bowyer didn't sign Dann ,Hanley or Rhodes (did you not know this)and Duffy left for 4 million(where do you get 5m plus from?). So the rest of your total equals 13 million. Dack was linked with an 18 million move. Add in Armstrong.

Now work that out and come back to me. 

Edited February 21, 2020 by Bigdoggsteel

[Pedro]

  On 20/02/2020 at 18:21, Mashed Potatoes said:

I've never denied the existence of FFP ! Mowbray's signings have brought the club to the brink of the play offs. Stop trying to rewrite history.

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Who said you denied the existence of it?  It was the impending threat of us being unable to spend that you skirted around.

What's with the rewriting of history nonsense?  I try to state facts...unlike shite such as no other manager would come to Rovers etc.

[Pedro]

  On 21/02/2020 at 17:30, Bigdoggsteel said:

Dack has value though, I don't think anyone else disagrees with that. 

Bowyer didn't sign Dann ,Hanley or Rhodes (did you not know this)and Duffy left for 4 million(where do you get 5m plus from?). So the rest of your total equals 13 million. Dack was linked with an 18 million move. Add in Armstrong.

Now work that out and come back to me. 

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What arguement are you wittering on about? Nobody gives a shit who signed who. So, with the greatest respect how about you re-read the crap you posted, then come back to me.

 

Or be a man, hold up your hands and say, "Actually, I got that one wrong because I forgot about those decent players".

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 17:37, Pedro said:

What arguement are you wittering on about? Nobody gives a shit who signed who. So, with the greatest respect how about you re-read the crap you posted, then come back to me.

 

Or be a man, hold up your hands and say, "Actually, I got that one wrong because I forgot about those decent players".

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We were discussing who signed players that we could sell for value.. It's pretty simple,as I demonstrated. 

Edited February 21, 2020 by Bigdoggsteel

[Pedro]

  On 20/02/2020 at 18:15, The Hypnotic said:

Every manager makes a few dud signings though. Fergie brought djemba djemba and Bebe to United, Arsene Wenger thought that Francis Jeffers was a premier league great in the making. At least TM has brought some truly great players to us, many coaches don’t even manage to bring decent players to a club. 
 

I see where you’re coming from with the small club mentality. I guess we differ greatly on this point. I’m happy for us to improve on last season, playoffs would be great but for me as long as we’re closer to the top than last year then I think TM is continuing to succeed and should be allowed more time. 
 

I’d love for us to push into the playoffs even if I think promotion is a step too far with this squad and the injuries we’ve suffered from. I agree that if we don’t make it then some players might want to leave but we’ll survive and hopefully use the funds to strengthen the squad and try again next time. 
 

I think we both want our club to be successful but you’re less patient (or more ambitious) than I am! 

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I totally respect what you say there.  I think that Mowbray is very similar to Bowyer - he can spot a good lower-league player/reserve and is a largely capable manager and thoroughly decent guy. I personally think we need more than that though, someone more demanding , even ruthless, like Hughes/Souness because we lack belief, presence and fight.  Who knows though - maybe things fall into place. I certainly hope so.

[Bigdoggsteel]

  On 21/02/2020 at 17:45, Pedro said:

I totally respect what you say there.  I think that Mowbray is very similar to Bowyer - he can spot a good lower-league player/reserve and is a largely capable manager and thoroughly decent guy. I personally think we need more than that though, someone more demanding , even ruthless, like Hughes/Souness because we lack belief, presence and fight.  Who knows though - maybe things fall into place. I certainly hope so.

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So he can spot a good player,but his recruitment isn't good

Mmm mmm

Ah no to be fair,I do and have agreed with the general sentiment you have here. We all want a ruthless ,no nonsense manger who can crack the whip and deliver us to the promised land. Leeds are paying 6 million a year for that and still they aren't guaranteed of anything. 

 

[roversfan99]

  On 21/02/2020 at 17:30, Bigdoggsteel said:

Dack has value though, I don't think anyone else disagrees with that. 

Bowyer didn't sign Dann ,Hanley or Rhodes (did you not know this)and Duffy left for 4 million(where do you get 5m plus from?). So the rest of your total equals 13 million. Dack was linked with an 18 million move. Add in Armstrong.

Now work that out and come back to me. 

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To be fair, Mowbray didnt sign Lenihan, Travis or Nyambe, our other 3 saleable assets. That being said, both managers still worked to make the players better than when they joined. 

Being linked with one tenuously in the media doesnt make a player worth 18m, but you are right to imply that Armstrong and Dack would yearn massive profits on the small fees that Mowbray managed to get them for. Almost certainly more than Gestede, Cairney and Duffy, albeit the first 2 were sold the summer we went into embargo I think, so were reduced fees, and Duffy obviously was shall we say exceptional circumstances. Mowbray has spent close to 20m, something Bowyer could only dream of, and I am unconvinced that any of Brereton, Gallagher, Rothwell, Chapman, Davenport, Samuel, Hart, Bell etc would even yield a 7 figure fee, so I dont think his record in terms of adding value is actually that good in the market, and his eggs are in 2 baskets which is problematic when you consider that one has a serious injury. That being said, an additional year in his contract does protect most of Dacks value. Most of the assets have been brought through the ranks and Mowbray and his coaching staff have developed.

And I think Mowbray is a better manager than Bowyer, just to clarify. I think comparing their transfer records is difficult, Mowbray has had much more money, I think Bowyer got more out and out successes, but partially due to a lack of resources, some of the cheap squad fillers were absolutely embarrassing. Mowbray has signed quite a few for small fees that have not really necessarily worked out yet to the level we had hoped, but even so, there are no Varneys, Browns, Akpans, Petschis, Koitas, Delfouensos or Taylors (Paul or Chris) in our squad.