Rovers vs Reading at Virtual Ewood

[philipl]

Watched three Reading highlights and they re-enforce my view that Reading are not that tight at the back and will give us chances. The keeper is good.

They are pretty deadly when they get chances but have been fortunate at times. Barnsley were severely testing them before being reduced to 9 men.

Watford looked the better side but Reading emphatically took their chance.

Edited October 27, 2020 by philipl

[Guest]

51 minutes ago, Ewood Ace said:

It's a load of crap. There's a lot of pointless stats out there these days but expected goals is the most pointless and useless of them all. 

4 hours ago, Uddersfelt Blue said:

The most useless and pointless stat is easily possession. xG is very useful, and clubs worldwide are adopting data driven approaches to tactics and training for games. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, roversfan99 said:

Thanks for the explanation firstly, certainly a very thorough description so fair play.

So is the xG not even specific to individual games? I presumed that it was implying that ultimately in the games that we didnt win, that we should have done based on xG. It is incredibly flawed because if most of our xG in 7 games came within 3 games, then that isnt fair to suggest that we should be top based on that!

You mention Bamford, what the stat also doesnt factor in is to have so many chances is reliant on him having that anticipation and intelligence to get himself into goalscoring situations, it isnt solely a striker being reliant on service scenario. Take Brereton, he never gets himself into goalscoring positions, so I wouldnt be surprised if his one goal from distance ensures that he is out scoring his xG. Whereas Bamford will have more yet might not take them all. So forwards who keep managing to get into positions to get clear cut chances will be penalised by this method should they not take them all. Andy Cole would have been screwed if his performance was measured like this!

You imply that it is not sustainable to outscore your xG consistently but surely you can if you have particularly clinical forwards?

I totally appreciate data in general and of course it does play a role but I can be incredibly skeptical of its use in football in certain situations. xG just seems flawed in my opinion to the point where it has limited value in my opinion.

xG is certainly flawed, but it's only flawed if you view it on its own to draw a conclusion about a team or a player. Tied in with multiple other variable data points it can be really useful. 

xG models differ, none are perfect but for me none are pointless entirely. 

[Ewood Ace]

Just now, JoeH said:

The most useless and pointless stat is easily possession. xG is very useful, and clubs worldwide are adopting data driven approaches to tactics and training for games. 

It's a completely pointless and useless stat, the only stat that matter is how many goals you score. Look at Aston Villa the other day they scored 7 and could have had easily had more against Liverpool and the expected goals for them was just 3 goals.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Ewood Ace said:

It's a completely pointless and useless stat, the only stat that matter is how many goals you score. Look at Aston Villa the other day they scored 7 and could have had easily had more against Liverpool and the expected goals for them was just 3 goals.

Listen you're entitled to your opinion but the whole of modern football disagrees with you that the only stats that matter are goals scored and goals conceded. Are all the English football clubs in our League and the Premier League wrong and you're right?

The expected goals for Villa being low isn't a knock on them, it's a testament to how lethal they were in attack. I feel you've not read into what xG really means, ignored the explanation of the models I gave which some big sceptics on here have at least acknowledged - and you're using a misunderstood view of data to discredit it. 

[jim mk2]

4 minutes ago, Ewood Ace said:

It's a completely pointless and useless stat, the only stat that matter is how many goals you score. Look at Aston Villa the other day they scored 7 and could have had easily had more against Liverpool and the expected goals for them was just 3 goals.

 

Yep, exhibit No 1: Rovers away to Watford last week

Mullered them off the pitch with possession and good football but lost 3-1.

 

[Ewood Ace]

Just now, JoeH said:

Listen you're entitled to your opinion but the whole of modern football disagrees with you that the only stats that matter are goals scored and goals conceded.

Goals scored and conceded are the only stats that have a bearing on where you finish in the table. Some people like to obsess over other stats but at the end of the day they are obsolete in the grand scheme of things.

4 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I feel you've not read into what xG really means, ignored the explanation of the models I gave which some big sceptics on here have at least acknowledged - and you're using a misunderstood view of data to discredit it. 

It's an incredibly flawed model. If you really want to know these sort of things use your eyes instead of flawed stats. 

[XLM]

7 minutes ago, Ewood Ace said:

Goals scored and conceded are the only stats that have a bearing on where you finish in the table. Some people like to obsess over other stats but at the end of the day they are obsolete in the grand scheme of things.

It's an incredibly flawed model. If you really want to know these sort of things use your eyes instead of flawed stats. 

Stats help you look forwards/predict and are an unbiased representation of what happened. A football result is never the whole story and, as much as we try not to be, every human is inherently biased.

Data is everywhere and, like it or not, now powers the world. And the last industries/businesses to embrace it will be (/ have already been) left behind. Football is no different.

[Gone to seed]

Looking exceptionally wet and wild at the moment, which might not suit any Southern Softies

Not just about who keeps their head this evening, but perhaps just as much about who can keep on their feet..

Where's R1871 when you need a comment from the opposition fan base?

COYB!

[Ewood Ace]

7 minutes ago, XLM said:

Stats help you look forwards/predict and are an unbiased representation of what happened. A football result is never the whole story and, as much as we try not to be, every human is inherently biased.

I would argue that stats can give a misleading representation of the game. Look at our game last week at Watford people on here were raving about the shots and possession we had and if you looked at the stats you'd have though we battered Watford but when you used you eyes you would have seen that we were comfortably beaten by a side who were happy to sit back and counter and never needed to get out of 2nd gear. The score is the only story that matters you don't get any bonus points for having good stats.

[Admiral Nelsen]

Reading are up there with QPR as clubs that you want to play on a horrible midweek fixture in poor weather. Would be a perfect game for Travis this one, but I'm still confident that we'll win without him.

[XLM]

Just now, Ewood Ace said:

I would argue that stats can give a misleading representation of the game. Look at our game last week at Watford people on here were raving about the shots and possession we had and if you looked at the stats you'd have though we battered Watford but when you used you eyes you would have seen that we were comfortably beaten by a side who were happy to sit back and counter and never needed to get out of 2nd gear. The score is the only story that matters you don't get any bonus points for having good stats.

You have proven my point. I don't agree with that analysis of what happened. I thought we were the better side apart from some calamitous defending... I might be right, you might be right. How about we look at some unbiased stats to help us determine what the really happened, so we can build for the next game? That's the point. They provide an opinion to help you that has no preconceptions, isn't impacted by mood, fatigue etc. etc.

[roversfan99]

I definitely agree that stats have the potential to mislead. A striker with clever movement and the intelligence to get into goalscoring positions, baring in mind that a strikers chances are as much down to his own movement as they are the supply, would compare very unfavourably to one who rarely gets into goalscoring positions in the first place surely?

They have such limited use, certainly in isolation. If a team has low xG and is outperforming that stat, why does that have to level out, perhaps that team has a particularly clinical attack, a player or two who is very adept from long distance, or a particularly good goalkeeper.

 

[Sparks Rover]

59 minutes ago, JoeH said:

Listen you're entitled to your opinion but the whole of modern football disagrees with you that the only stats that matter are goals scored and goals conceded.

What a silly remark.  The goals for and against stat controls all the other stats.  

"Oh, we had 70% posession and lost...Happy days" said no manager ever

[Swanson]

Evans back in the team....No Kaminski.

[Tugay-is-God]

[dallydally]

Johnson presumably injured? Evans.....?

[SoldierMo]

What the hell do we do and our fitness coaches do? Now johnson bell and kaminski injured...don’t think there has been a week without a bloody injury

[Oldgregg86]

Happy with that except Evans. I’d rather play Gallagher there

[Gone to seed]

That's a worry - no Internationals imminent, so there's no need for a certain midfielder to put a shift in...

Where is the steel in that team, I wonder?

[SBlue]

Evans last chance saloon for me, he’s got to show something

[roversfan99]

If we are signing Downing, if we had done it far sooner and he would have started today for sure. He would add another creative option centrally that we could do with.

Evans further forward again is not good at all.

 

[arbitro]

Ayala on the bench on Saturday but not tonight as Wharton is the centre half cover.

Very strange.

[Feed the Yak]

I'm done with Evans. Very disappointed to see him starting. Great if he proves me wrong today but after several seasons I've made my mind up. 

Hope we get a result despite his inclusion which I feel will be detrimental to our midfield performance. 

[neophox]

3 minutes ago, WIR Second Coming said:

That's a worry - no Internationals imminent, so there's no need for a certain midfielder to put a shift in...

Where is the steel in that team, I wonder?

Trybull