TRANSFER THREAD - JANUARY 2021

[Bigdoggsteel]

11 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

He is the focal point but it is very naive to think that someone especially realistic to us could come in and score at an equal or even better rate. As I mentioned it is not as simple as having chances created for him, he aids that by anticipating chances via his movement.

He is the top scorer in the league which is very impressive and we would be half the attacking force without him.

He would have 8 goals if not for the Coventry (4-0), Derby(4-0) and Wycombe (5-0) games. To be fair though he was responsible for 1 of the reds in those games, which he is good at. So of those 8 goals, how many penos?

He has scored in 4 other tighter games we won. They are the goals that matter. We won't automatically get promoted if he finishes top scorer. 

His decision making needs to improve in the tight games and he needs to start looking to see if teammates are in better positions. Not just referring to the last night. He is getting a name for being very greedy. Every game we seem to have so many attempts. That's all fine when he does score, but he goes 2-3 games not scoring and we will have problems. 

I would be interested to see his shots taken per goal stats. I don't buy he is solely repsonsible for creating these chances, because he has never really done that consistently. The team are manufacturing chance after chance for him. His shooting from range has been woeful this season compared to last. If it was on par with last season, he could have 25 goals now. 

 He is improving ,but it's as if when one aspect improves, another regresses. He isn't immune to scrutiny just because he is top scorer. 

Anyway, he's our main man up there til Dack comes back, so hopefully he is back to his sharpest tomorrow, both mentally and physically 

 

[roversfan99]

38 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

He would have 8 goals if not for the Coventry (4-0), Derby(4-0) and Wycombe (5-0) games. To be fair though he was responsible for 1 of the reds in those games, which he is good at. So of those 8 goals, how many penos?

He has scored in 4 other tighter games we won. They are the goals that matter. We won't automatically get promoted if he finishes top scorer. 

His decision making needs to improve in the tight games and he needs to start looking to see if teammates are in better positions. Not just referring to the last night. He is getting a name for being very greedy. Every game we seem to have so many attempts. That's all fine when he does score, but he goes 2-3 games not scoring and we will have problems. 

I would be interested to see his shots taken per goal stats. I don't buy he is solely repsonsible for creating these chances, because he has never really done that consistently. The team are manufacturing chance after chance for him. His shooting from range has been woeful this season compared to last. If it was on par with last season, he could have 25 goals now. 

 He is improving ,but it's as if when one aspect improves, another regresses. He isn't immune to scrutiny just because he is top scorer. 

Anyway, he's our main man up there til Dack comes back, so hopefully he is back to his sharpest tomorrow, both mentally and physically 

 

I dont doubt that he is not above scrutiny and he deserved criticism for his performance on Wednesday night.

There have been plenty of praise for lesser threats such as Brereton and rightly so but had we not got a striker as good as anyone in the division on our hands, then the likes of Brereton, Gallagher etc chipping in with 2 and 3 would be attracting criticism, as it is as long as Armstrong keeps scoring such supporting roles are manageable. When we took Armstrong out v Boro we lookee toothless.

We have been blessed with some top level Championship attackers in some otherwise shite teams in the last 10 years and sometimes I think they can be underappreciated. The likes of Dack and Rhodes have also had criticism in the past at times when they were the primary source of goals. When you have a forward scoring at a rate of a goal every other game or indeed with Armstrong almost 1 a game it is easy to take it for granted.

The reason that goalscorers always score is because they know where to be. You never hear people saying that we dont create enough for Armstrong, for Dack, back in a poor team for Rhodes because they know where the ball will fall, where to move, how to sniff out chances. When a non goalscorer starts there, take Gallagher last season you hear regular questioning of the supply which may carry some weight but ultimately the main difference is that lesser forwards dont sniff out chances in the same way. I dont mean create chances for themselves by beating a couple of players or belting one in from 25 yards.

 

[tomphil]

Nice to see Mowbray thinking what the fans are thinking re Trybull.  Needs a kick up the arse because he hasn't really looked vary arsed since he arrived. Bit of an odd signing but presumably just to cover for Evans.

I'd be looking to send him back in Jan to be honest and put those wages towards some proper center back cover. God knows we'll need it as the season goes on we can't really be having play off hopes derailed by lacking experienced defenders.

[G Somerset Rover]

15 minutes ago, tomphil said:

Nice to see Mowbray thinking what the fans are thinking re Trybull.  Needs a kick up the arse because he hasn't really looked vary arsed since he arrived. Bit of an odd signing but presumably just to cover for Evans.

I'd be looking to send him back in Jan to be honest and put those wages towards some proper center back cover. God knows we'll need it as the season goes on we can't really be having play off hopes derailed by lacking experienced defenders.

Farke alluded to Trybull being a bit of a problem child unless I’m mistaken when they got shot of him. Perhaps this is one whom Mowbray didn’t do his character homework on. Either way - agreed - if we can let him return in January then I would and put that wage towards a much needed renewal or two!

Edited December 12, 2020 by Gavlar Somerset Rover!

[superniko]

15 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I would be interested to see his shots taken per goal stats. I don't buy he is solely repsonsible for creating these chances, because he has never really done that consistently. The team are manufacturing chance after chance for him. His shooting from range has been woeful this season compared to last. If it was on par with last season, he could have 25 goals now. 

 

He has had 82 shots (40 more than Toney, DOUBLE the amount Joao) 2nd in the Championship has had 53 shots. 
Arma is averaging 5.4 shots per game. 

If we exclude penalties (scored 3 missed 1?) then it’s 11 goals from 78 shots I.e more than 7 shots per goal. 
14% conversion rate feels pretty low albeit I’ve not really compared that to anything. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

2 minutes ago, superniko said:

He has had 82 shots (40 more than Toney, DOUBLE the amount Joao) 2nd in the Championship has had 53 shots. 
Arma is averaging 5.4 shots per game. 

If we exclude penalties (scored 3 missed 1?) then it’s 11 goals from 78 shots I.e more than 7 shots per goal. 
14% conversion rate feels pretty low albeit I’ve not really compared that to anything. 

That's one of the reasons why he wouldn't be anything like as successful at the top level. He'd need a much more effective shots to goals ratio.

[Bigdoggsteel]

3 hours ago, superniko said:

He has had 82 shots (40 more than Toney, DOUBLE the amount Joao) 2nd in the Championship has had 53 shots. 
Arma is averaging 5.4 shots per game. 

If we exclude penalties (scored 3 missed 1?) then it’s 11 goals from 78 shots I.e more than 7 shots per goal. 
14% conversion rate feels pretty low albeit I’ve not really compared that to anything. 

Good post and very interesting! 

[joey_big_nose]

I would say all we need immediately is a left back who can defend. If somehow we could find someone who is guaranteed to score goals I wouldn't say no either.

But we have all the tools really to get into top six. It's not a recruitment issue.

[Hoochie Bloochie Mama]

1 minute ago, joey_big_nose said:

I would say all we need immediately is a left back who can defend. If somehow we could find someone who is guaranteed to score goals I wouldn't say no either.

But we have all the tools really to get into top six. It's not a recruitment issue.

Your last sentence doesn't quite ring true. Lenihan and Williams regularly get pelters on here, as do Douglas and Bell. Nyambe is our only consistently good defender as far as I can see. 

[joey_big_nose]

6 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Your last sentence doesn't quite ring true. Lenihan and Williams regularly get pelters on here, as do Douglas and Bell. Nyambe is our only consistently good defender as far as I can see. 

For me Ayala, Williams, Lenihan, Nyambe are all good defenders.

[philipl]

I would let Trybull go back to Norwich (we saw yesterday why he doesn't fit there) and bring in Kipre on loan. 

If we could find a better left back, I'd let Douglas go but left backs in January will be rarer than hen's teeth.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1 hour ago, joey_big_nose said:

I would say all we need immediately is a left back who can defend. If somehow we could find someone who is guaranteed to score goals I wouldn't say no either.

But we have all the tools really to get into top six. It's not a recruitment issue.

He's only had four goes at getting us a left back - Bell, Hart, Cunningham, Douglas. Maybe it'll be fifth time lucky ?

[Blue blood]

2 hours ago, joey_big_nose said:

For me Ayala, Williams, Lenihan, Nyambe are all good defenders.

Disagree on Williams, Lenihen can be excellent or poor depending on who is around him. Also getting and keeping that lot fit is a real challenge. Plenty of work to be done on the defence imo, although left back has to be priority. 

[RoversClitheroe]

Douglas is absolutely awful at defending and I'd go as far as saying Bell is better than him.

Trybull can go back to Norwich for me. The games he's played it's been like playing with 10 men. Davenport is miles above him in my opinion.

[iSeeRed]

I don't know if such a thing as a transfer list still exists but I don't see why we can't use this window to unload some deadwood like Bennett. I mean no disrespect to him but he's clearly far from Mowbray's plans and I'd rather have a few bob for him than have to pay his wages.

[SoldierMo]

Can’t belive TM said he played williams last game even though 80 percent fit now hes out couple of weeks...what is he thinking??? Also if Nyambe leaves wouldnt mind signing the right back from Rotherham...he looked good

[tomphil]

8 hours ago, iSeeRed said:

I don't know if such a thing as a transfer list still exists but I don't see why we can't use this window to unload some deadwood like Bennett. I mean no disrespect to him but he's clearly far from Mowbray's plans and I'd rather have a few bob for him than have to pay his wages.

Far from his plans ?  He's out with a long injury so yes he probably is at the min.

When he's fit though he'll be very much in them in fact i'd wager last night would've seen him in one of his right back starts. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

Clearly nobody will sign an injured player 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

31 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Clearly nobody will sign an injured player 

Apart from us you mean.

[iSeeRed]

3 hours ago, tomphil said:

Far from his plans ?  He's out with a long injury so yes he probably is at the min.

When he's fit though he'll be very much in them in fact i'd wager last night would've seen him in one of his right back starts. 

Didn't know about his injuries, thought he was dropped, I imagine he'll be released though at the end of the season.

[Dreams of 1995]

On 11/12/2020 at 19:18, Bigdoggsteel said:

 

His decision making needs to improve in the tight games and he needs to start looking to see if teammates are in better positions. Not just referring to the last night. He is getting a name for being very greedy. Every game we seem to have so many attempts. That's all fine when he does score, but he goes 2-3 games not scoring and we will have problems. 

I would be interested to see his shots taken per goal stats. I don't buy he is solely repsonsible for creating these chances, because he has never really done that consistently. The team are manufacturing chance after chance for him. His shooting from range has been woeful this season compared to last. If it was on par with last season, he could have 25 goals now. 

 

Bit in bold is probably for @JoeHbut I will take a stab in the dark and say it isn't good.

Armstrong has been poor for the past few games imo. His decision making against Bristol City cost us the game. He had more shots than our entire team and I don't think many of them were on target!

The news article about £30m is pie in the sky stuff. I'd take £15m for him now. I don't personally think he will get goals in the Premier League but I am more than happy to be proved wrong on that one.

He needs to learn to pass, and take a look at the assist for Elliot yesterday as what can be done if he gets his head up. Not every goal has to be a wonder goal and he doesn't have to score them all.

To finish though, even with them poor performances, he is still getting goals and that trait is very hard to replace. It would be suicide to sell him in January.

[roversfan99]

The main stats that matter are that he has 15 goals at a rate of 0.88 a game. 

According to BBC, he has had 61 shots so has a conversion rate of 25%. A very high rate (69%) hit the target too. If he needs to take a few more shots to get such a goal tally, so be it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/top-scorers

[tomphil]

2 hours ago, iSeeRed said:

Didn't know about his injuries, thought he was dropped, I imagine he'll be released though at the end of the season.

Can't see that i reckon he'll be offered something to stay on until he's fit again.

[Guest]

On 11/12/2020 at 19:18, Bigdoggsteel said:

I would be interested to see his shots taken per goal stats.

In the 2020/21 season Adam Armstrong is averaging 4.7 shots per game, with a 47% accuracy rate, scoring 0.82 goals per game.

In the 2019/20 season Adam Armstrong averaged 2.38 shots per game, with a 48% accuracy rate, scoring 0.39 goals per game.

So yes, Armstrong is definitely taking on a lot more shots, but luckily for him he's finding more goals because of it.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

Bit in bold is probably for @JoeHbut I will take a stab in the dark and say it isn't good.

 

Yeah, info above on this one. It is certainly interesting. It's the balance really isn't it between taking more shots because you're confident, and then over doing it. My main thing with him is that he's picked up so many good traits over the last year. The winner against Rotherham is a perfect example. Right place, right time, where you'd expect Danny Graham to be if he was still here.

I like that more of his goals are coming in situations where he's found pockets of space in the box. He's scoring off his left as often as he does off his right, and he's even managed a headed goal this year too.

I don't think he's truly worth £30m, mainly because he wouldn't score that many goals in the PL for me, but for me he's certainly the best striker in the division this season. His all round game is just far superior to the likes of Pukki and Deeney.