Brockhall STC - planning permission application ?

[lraC]

54 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

Or, option 3, in that rather extreme and currently seemingly very unlikely scenario is that any future purchaser could utilise the money they've saved in not having to buy Brockhall towards the purchase of a new facility.

Seems to me the owners are re-affirming their commitment to the Club and bedding in for the long haul rather than the opposite I.e. clearing the decks for a sale and/or administration scenario.

What they have to do is start employing the right people to run and manage the Club.

28/10/21. Come back to this and quote me in future if I'm wrong.

Eleven years is a long time, to keep on employing the wrong people. Time will tell, but they don’t seem to be too interested in that option, for some strange reason.

[RoverCanada]

Hopefully that shows up ok. I was curious about medium-term FFP implications, so threw some guesstimates together. 2018-20 are actuals, while 2020 onwards are guesses in light yellow. Obviously assuming we're stuck in the Championship 🙂

Main takeaway: We likely well exceeded the 3-year £39m FFP losses allowance last year, but the Armstrong+STC sales likely bring us within a 4-year £52m FFP loss limit. Without the STC sale, we'd still be in trouble after the Armstrong sale. I would guess this was a big reason for the accounts delay/temporary 'soft' transfer embargo.

Going forward, a profitable 2021-22 gives us a fair bit of leeway under the 3-year FFP cycles (and this all assumes surviving in the Championship at a below-average wage and low-ish transfer spend!), particularly if we have cut wages like I've assumed. How the player contract renewals feed into this... I dunno!

These are all obviously assumptions to be shot at, but:

- Matchday only gradually recovers to below 2018-19 levels (which was a slight bounceback after relegation/Coyle/L1). Was up to £4m in the early Bowyer days, or up to £6m in the PL days... I'm probably being optimistic here, but it's ultimately a marginal factor.

- Broadcast goes up to £8m (I think there's a slightly larger EFL TV deal on the horizon?). This is also subject to cup runs. Commercial recovers to £4.5m, but that's below our 'usual' £5m+.

- Our new wage structure is £20m/year after peaking at £27m last year (a guess!)

- Assuming £12m profit on Armstrong and £12m profit on the STC (any idea of its accounting value? Possibly well-depreciated by now)

- Other opex is an odd one as it bounces around. Tends to be on the high side for the Championship. I've assumed £9m (with a fall last year)

- Player trading profits after this year (which could be higher if Rothwell/Nyambe sold in Jan...) is a big guess. We've barely had any profits before the Armstrong/Raya sales. Lots of Championship clubs report the occasional £10m+ profit, like we did with Armstrong. Play with that variable as you like.

- Amortisation+depreciation is hard to say. Last year's £5.6m reflects Armstrong+Brereton+Gallagher+etc. Armstrong done, haven't bothered to work out how long Brereton/Gallagher fees are incurred. Maybe there will be new biggish transfers at some point, but if it's only the likes of Kaminski/Edun/Pickering-like spend going forward, it may fall to ~£2m-ish levels

- ~£4m worth of Academy, community, ladies football, etc. FFP exemptions, plus exemptions for Covid-related losses of £0.5m and £2.5m in 2019-20 and 2020-21.

TL;DR: My gf would probably be right to leave me.

Edited October 28, 2021 by RoverCanada

[RevidgeBlue]

9 minutes ago, lraC said:

Eleven years is a long time, to keep on employing the wrong people. Time will tell, but they don’t seem to be too interested in that option, for some strange reason.

I agree, they HAVE to get it right going forwards.

[den]

26 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

You're not making any sense den. If Venky's left and wanted to recoup every penny they could, why wouldn't they include it in any sale?

Because they would sell it separately to the club?

The club on its own would be worthless even with Brockhall.

Edited October 28, 2021 by den

[islander200]

17 minutes ago, RoverCanada said:

Hopefully that shows up ok. I was curious about medium-term FFP implications, so threw some guesstimates together. 2018-20 are actuals, while 2020 onwards are guesses in light yellow. Obviously assuming we're stuck in the Championship 🙂

Main takeaway: We likely well exceeded the 3-year £39m FFP losses allowance last year, but the Armstrong+STC sales likely bring us within a 4-year £52m FFP loss limit. Without the STC sale, we'd still be in trouble after the Armstrong sale. I would guess this was a big reason for the accounts delay/temporary 'soft' transfer embargo.

Going forward, a profitable 2021-22 gives us a fair bit of leeway under the 3-year FFP cycles (and this all assumes surviving in the Championship at a below-average wage and low-ish transfer spend!), particularly if we have cut wages like I've assumed. How the player contract renewals feed into this... I dunno!

These are all obviously assumptions to be shot at, but:

- Matchday only gradually recovers to below 2018-19 levels (which was a slight bounceback after relegation/Coyle/L1). Was up to £4m in the early Bowyer days, or up to £6m in the PL days... I'm probably being optimistic here, but it's ultimately a marginal factor.

- Broadcast goes up to £8m (I think there's a slightly larger EFL TV deal on the horizon?). This is also subject to cup runs. Commercial recovers to £4.5m, but that's below our 'usual' £5m+.

- Our new wage structure is £20m/year after peaking at £27m last year (a guess!)

- Assuming £12m profit on Armstrong and £12m profit on the STC (any idea of its accounting value? Possibly well-depreciated by now)

- Other opex is an odd one as it bounces around. Tends to be on the high side for the Championship. I've assumed £9m (with a fall last year)

- Player trading profits after this year (which could be higher if Rothwell/Nyambe sold in Jan...) is a big guess. We've barely had any profits before the Armstrong/Raya sales. Lots of Championship clubs report the occasional £10m+ profit, like we did with Armstrong. Play with that variable as you like.

- Amortisation+depreciation is hard to say. Last year's £5.6m reflects Armstrong+Brereton+Gallagher+etc. Armstrong done, haven't bothered to work out how long Brereton/Gallagher fees are incurred. Maybe there will be new biggish transfers at some point, but if it's only the likes of Kaminski/Edun/Pickering-like spend going forward, it may fall to ~£2m-ish levels

- ~£4m worth of Academy, community, ladies football, etc. FFP exemptions, plus exemptions for Covid-related losses of £0.5m and £2.5m in 2019-20 and 2020-21.

TL;DR: My gf would probably be right to leave me.

Good post

[islander200]

3 minutes ago, den said:

Because they would sell it separately to the club?

For how much more than the 16 million they have already paid for it?

[RevidgeBlue]

The other point arising from this is that the Club's PR is absolutely abysmal and being run into a rank amateur fashion.

Both the original Brockhall scheme and this subsequent accounting exercise were only initially uncovered due to the diligence of Eagle eyed fans.

I think the two things are completely separate and the owners put a stop to the first scheme and instead substituted the current solution to comply with FFP.

If my interpretation is correct though this should have been publicised properly as a positive PR story by the Club well in advance of any  fan finding out about it.

Same with the relatively recent appointments of Head of Commercial and Head of Integration. Not a word from the Club or in the Press about it. The Club need to help themselves at times.

At least the Club is in good hands with Eagle eyed fans like Miller 11 and whoever spotted the initial planning application (Matty) looking out for the Club's interests and flagging up anything outwardly suspicious.

[den]

6 minutes ago, islander200 said:

For how much more than the 16 million they have already paid for it?

I don’t know. I don’t even know whether that money has actually transferred into the clubs account.
Again I’m thinking out loud because I don’t believe this has anything to do with FFP.

 

[RevidgeBlue]

6 minutes ago, den said:

Because they would sell it separately to the club?

The club on its own would be worthless even with Brockhall.

Not really, because if a sale arose they would have to write off the debt technically owned to them by the Club. All the debt is owned to them apart from the Bank overdraft.

It wouldn't make any difference to them if the STC was sold at the same time as the rest of the Club's assets or at a later date.

Obviously from the Club's point of view going forward it would be essential it was included in the event of any future sale which is what we could do with assurances and clarification on.

[RevidgeBlue]

1 minute ago, den said:

Again I’m thinking out loud because I don’t believe this has anything to do with FFP.

So you don't believe we were losing approaching £20m p.a. pre pandemic or that that figure would have increased substantially again last season due to the pandemic?

[Crimpshrine]

10 hours ago, Paul Mani said:

What I do know is that our absent owners have spent £150m of their own money propping the club up whilst large numbers of supposed ‘supporters’ - people who self proclaim to love the club wont find £20 to buy a ticket for the match. They hide behind the Venky narrative.

The job of supporters is to get down to the ground and support the team in good and bad times. Football for fans is like religion or devotion to your kids. It’s endless and enduring in spite of hardship.

After all this time, you still don't understand other people's points of view or other people's pricnciples. Maybe you just don't want to.

Many boycotters attend away matches to support the team and may attend as many matches as you do. The point of boycotting home matches is to show disapproval of the people who are killing the club. What other weapon do we have ?

We are all in this together but handle it in different ways. Don't put yourself on a pedestal

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Crimpshrine
spelling

[arbitro]

38 minutes ago, JHRover said:

I think the suspicious thing is how quickly we went from one thing to the other. In February/March all the talk from Maggott and the Club and some people on here was how it was a good idea to amalgamate training sites into one, claims from the club that this was a decision being made to improve facilities, that it would require further owner investment and was being done to usher in a bright future for the football club.

By April that grand exciting scheme had been abandoned, by June there was a transfer out of the club's control and by October we are now being told that this was a necessary step due to the pandemic and FFP rules. Strange how those thiings didn't come up in Waggott's appraisal in February. Back then it was all hunky dory and Venkys were tipping extra cash in to build the super duper new training centre.

My assessment - this is all smoke and mirrors - the original plan was nothing more than a cash grab dressed up under the guise of improved facilities, they then hit the buffers on that due to immense public opposition and instead have quickly moved on to plan B which is underway with this transfer. I think more will come out in the months to come but unfortunately we will have to rely on supporters going and doing their own research rather than any transparency from the club.

I think people interpreting this as a mere accounting stunt to dodge FFP issues are going to be surprised in time to come. Hope I'm wrong because the last thing I want is to lose the crown jewels but I think that is what we are seeing here.

Agreed and everyone should under no illusion that, had they got their way the STC would now be a building site and everyone shoehorned into the Academy. They would have taken the money from a developer in a heartbeat. Now, instead of banking a huge amount from a third party it has cost them a fortune to set up a new company and buy the STC themselves. It could well be above board and with good intentions but given their track record frankly I don't believe that.

All this speculation could be put to bed in one fell swoop but as ever the silence is deafening and that adds to my mistrust of them.

[islander200]

13 minutes ago, den said:

I don’t know. I don’t even know whether that money has actually transferred into the clubs account.
Again I’m thinking out loud because I don’t believe this has anything to do with FFP.

 

It has been transferred to the clubs accounts back in June.

 

[den]

2 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

So you don't believe we were losing approaching £20m p.a. pre pandemic or that that figure would have increased substantially again last season due to the pandemic?

I think moving a piece of prime building land owned by BRFC away from the club and onto a separate business shortly after trying to sell it off for cash reeks of something very distasteful. 

I readily accept that I know nothing about business and accounting practices Rev, so there’s no point in asking me about those things. 

[chaddyrovers]

 

@JHRover

[den]

2 minutes ago, islander200 said:

It has been transferred to the clubs accounts back in June.

 

Means nothing. Venkys own the club, they can do whatever they want with that money. We would likely never know.

Like @arbitro, I don’t trust them. With good reason.

[islander200]

5 minutes ago, den said:

Means nothing. Venkys own the club, they can do whatever they want with that money. We would likely never know.

Like @arbitro, I don’t trust them. With good reason.

But like Revidge says it doesnt take a finance expert to know the club were skating on thin ice regarding ffp.

The accounts show the owners have put in the max they are allowed in this cycle.

[RevidgeBlue]

16 minutes ago, arbitro said:

Agreed and everyone should under no illusion that, had they got their way the STC would now be a building site and everyone shoehorned into the Academy. They would have taken the money from a developer in a heartbeat. Now, instead of banking a huge amount from a third party it has cost them a fortune to set up a new company and buy the STC themselves. It could well be above board and with good intentions but given their track record frankly I don't believe that.

All this speculation could be put to bed in one fell swoop but as ever the silence is deafening and that adds to my mistrust of them.

Agree with most of your post but substitute Waggott/Mowbray/Venus for  "they" in lines 2 and 5 and "the owners" for "them" in line 9.

[JHRover]

17 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

 

@JHRover

He's a football finance expert and a FFP expert. He isn't a Blackburn Rovers expert and probably knows very little about what has gone on here.

[RevidgeBlue]

19 minutes ago, den said:

I readily accept that I know nothing about business and accounting practices Rev, so there’s no point in asking me about those things. 

I'm not an accountant either den but the headline losses are there for all to see in the accounts.

[islander200]

10 minutes ago, JHRover said:

He's a football finance expert and a FFP expert. He isn't a Blackburn Rovers expert and probably knows very little about what has gone on here.

He can look at the accounts like everyone else though

[Mattyblue]

9 minutes ago, JHRover said:

He's a football finance expert and a FFP expert. He isn't a Blackburn Rovers expert and probably knows very little about what has gone on here.

I’m a big fan of his podcast, obviously knows his stuff, but as he thinks Venky’s are now fantastic owners (he’s said it on numerous occasions on the podcast over the last year or so) he obviously doesn’t look further than the surface - I.e cash injections etc. The shell of a club we see week in week out in the publicity wasteland of the Championship wont be something he has much exposure too.

Edited October 28, 2021 by Mattyblue

[chaddyrovers]

12 minutes ago, JHRover said:

He's a football finance expert and a FFP expert. He isn't a Blackburn Rovers expert and probably knows very little about what has gone on here.

I'm sure he knows the issues at the club. But he knows the finances of the club and knows the FFP rules. 

[RevidgeBlue]

21 minutes ago, JHRover said:

He's a football finance expert and a FFP expert. He isn't a Blackburn Rovers expert and probably knows very little about what has gone on here.

Yet what they've done is I'm guessing exactly what a legitimate owner would do if they were trying to help their Club circumvent the ludicrous FFP rules. Unless anyone else knows of another way round it.

I suppose it boils down to whether you believe the owners' intentions are good or not.

After eleven years, and £200 m plus I believe their intentions are genuine.

Are we at the top of their list of priorities within their business empire and have they kept a close enough eye on what's gone on here in the past? Possibly not and probably not respectively.

Has much of their decision making up to now been awful? Definitely.

Can it change? Definitely.

Will it change? Who knows, but we'll never have a better financial platform from which to operate IF they can get the operational side of the Club right.

Edited October 28, 2021 by RevidgeBlue

[jim mk2]

5 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

We'll never have a better financial platform from which to operate IF they can get the operational side of the Club right.

The big IF.

It hasn't happened in 11 years - why should that change?