Summer transfer window 2021.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Joe may claim knowledge on data etc and how it is used, but his opinion is no more valid than anyone elses, nor is is it factual. He does not know the exact inner workings at Rovers, or indeed if we have a list of numerous targets and are well organised behind the scenes, and of course even more importantly, if our targets are any good.

I do claim knowledge, I have qualifications to support that knowledge too. I don't claim my opinions to be fact.

I do know that Rovers, like almost every club, work within certain structures. That is a fact, not a guess or an opinion. You can choose to believe said fact or not believe it.

I can't factually say if a target is good, I can use my knowledge to say what the data says. I don't pretend that its fact.

[islander200]

53 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Thanks for reply. 

I read this week that Karl Robinson is very open to new ideas and data. So it did make me wonder if we could go for him. 

Nixon was saying yesterday that Rovers would look foreign if we were replacing Mowbray. But wouldn;t reveal any names

I wouldnt have mind Nigel Adkins to be honest. 

Why would you want Adkins?

Do you want the club to have ambition or just keep appointing has beens?

[Hoochie Bloochie Mama]

14 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

I wouldnt have mind Nigel Adkins to be honest. 

Can someone tell Chaddy that's Adkins has only just joined Charlton. I'd tell him myself but I think he's got me on ignore🙄

[roversfan99]

47 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I do claim knowledge, I have qualifications to support that knowledge too. I don't claim my opinions to be fact.

I do know that Rovers, like almost every club, work within certain structures. That is a fact, not a guess or an opinion. You can choose to believe said fact or not believe it.

I can't factually say if a target is good, I can use my knowledge to say what the data says. I don't pretend that its fact.

My post was not a criticism, it was just pointing out to chaddy that how you feel the club operates in your opinion does not prove or disprove my opinion, which is that I feel that it is naive and goes against everything we have seen to date to suggest that our scouting network has adequately and effectively put together detailed lists outlining targets for every position, knowing these players are achievable and ones for whom the work is already in place. Our transfer strategy is consistently haphazard, many deals done based on previous contacts, most of our business done near the end of transfer windows, therefore I have no confidence that such chaos will change anytime soon. There is also the issue surrounding the manager, I sadly expect him to remain, and he will have his own targets not agreed upon always by the data gurus, and that would be the case should we appoint someone else too. You go into dangerous ground if you sign players selected by analysts without the full agreement of the manager.

Some of the stuff you mention, that we have lists for example of targets, Mowbray has publically mentioned these in the past so that is a safe assumption to make, although going back to my point, I would not expect that at this stage, considering the way our club lacks proactivity at every level, that numerous targets are ready to go as I mention in my opening paragraph. The assumption can never be made that our club is run in any way efficiency, it clearly is not, the manager has no clue on his future or indeed on his budget, and wont anytime soon with our absent owners.

In regards to the last comment you make, of course. Ultimately, if you pass on an opinion based solely or even partially based on data, it is no more valid than an opinion without using the data, again as far as I am aware you have never claimed otherwise.

[JacknOry]

59 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I do claim knowledge, I have qualifications to support that knowledge too. I don't claim my opinions to be fact.

I do know that Rovers, like almost every club, work within certain structures. That is a fact, not a guess or an opinion. You can choose to believe said fact or not believe it.

I can't factually say if a target is good, I can use my knowledge to say what the data says. I don't pretend that its fact.

You work for a company that makes video games. Nothing to do with football, so claiming facts about knowing how our football club is run is very wide of the mark.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, JacknOry said:

You work for a company that makes video games. Nothing to do with football, so claiming facts about knowing how our football club is run is very wide of the mark.

I wasn't referencing my role at EA Sports, more my certifications in Football Scouting and my knowledge of Data Analysis. Your assumptions are very wide of the mark.

For your reference I have my FA Talent ID badges, my PFSA Level 2 and Level 3 Advance Reporting, I have undertaken a lot of private work in this sector. I have completed many a course in data analysis and data analysis for football & I have been using industry standard platforms like Wyscout for well over a year.

My claims about how our footballs clubs recruitment works come from connections and knowledge of the industry, not wild claims based on a side job for EA Sports that only you have decided to bring up...

Edited April 4, 2021 by JoeH

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Some of the stuff you mention, that we have lists for example of targets, Mowbray has publically mentioned these in the past so that is a safe assumption to make, although going back to my point, I would not expect that at this stage

It's not an assumption. It's what I know from what I have been told. It's my experience & knowledge of the way things work. Not just a guess. You can of course choose whether to trust that or not, be my guest, but don't assume I'm just playing with guesswork.

[roversfan99]

10 minutes ago, JoeH said:

It's not an assumption. It's what I know from what I have been told. It's my experience & knowledge of the way things work. Not just a guess. You can of course choose whether to trust that or not, be my guest, but don't assume I'm just playing with guesswork.

I am only talking about at Rovers, my comments are not based on what the normal way that data is used, my comments are based around what I perceived to be chaddys naivety in regards to the functioning of our club, especially on the recruitment side of things, armed with numerous years poor recruitment, including the time those deals have taken to complete.

Your ability to use data I took for granted as being reputable, no reason to doubt you even prior to your qualifications, but my comments were not about data, or "how things work," they were about my low expectations in regards to the inefficiency and lack of quality, care and organisation that seemed evident in regards to our recruitment. 

Out of interest, which clubs and to what degree have you experienced the recruitment side of things within professional clubs?

[Sparks Rover]

47 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I wasn't referencing my role at EA Sports, more my certifications in Football Scouting and my knowledge of Data Analysis. Your assumptions are very wide of the mark.

For your reference I have my FA Talent ID badges, my PFSA Level 2 and Level 3 Advance Reporting, I have undertaken a lot of private work in this sector. I have completed many a course in data analysis and data analysis for football & I have been using industry standard platforms like Wyscout for well over a year.

My claims about how our footballs clubs recruitment works come from connections and knowledge of the industry, not wild claims based on a side job for EA Sports that only you have decided to bring up...

Who do you scout for then?

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Out of interest, which clubs and to what degree have you experienced the recruitment side of things within professional clubs?

I should be transparent, as I don't want to be accused of being deceitful. I haven't undertaken any recruitment work within a professional football club, and certainly I wasn't trying to claim as such.

I have undertaken other types of work within Talent ID. I do have some knowledge of how it works from connections in that industry. I have spoken with many people, including people involved at Rovers.

I spoke as I said with a coach at Liverpool's Academy on Saturday morning who had some great insight into the happenings at Rochdale's Cat 3 academy where despite a budget 1/5th the size of Liverpool's, they continue to churn out local talents to be sold or used in their first team. We touched on Harvey Elliott and the message was pretty clear, they're impressed with his time here and there were never any worries of his return to Merseyside in the January window. He was pretty open about the ways in which data has changed youth development, youth recruitment and scouting and its conversations such as these that I feel allow me to say - this is how it usually works and how I've heard it works. 

I'm not claiming my opinions on footballers are facts, because that's a load of tosh, I never would. I don't claim that data for example should be used solely to recruit footballers at any level. I just know for a fact that Rovers do devise lists in those ways, and I know that just because a HoR leaves for another club, it doesn't mean that those targets are also lost.

*and if sharing my knowledge on this is perceived as condescending by some, that's out of my control. People who work within Law would probably be able to share some great knowledge on a thread that references it heavily and I wouldn't personally take it as an insult if they chose to share their thoughts. I am genuinely not actively seeking to speak down to anyone, only share my thoughts and experiences. I am sure there are people on the threads who've undertaken more work within the football industry, and I would welcome their thoughts on Rovers recruitment set up and the ways in which it doesn't or does use data.

Edited April 4, 2021 by JoeH

[DeeCee]

Does this scouting/data thing only work for players, or does it encompass back room staff, managers etc?

[Sparks Rover]

4 minutes ago, JoeH said:

 I haven't undertaken any recruitment work within a professional football club, and certainly I wasn't trying to claim as such.

Why not?  You've got all those online qualifications,  clubs would be happy to have you work for nothing, just expenses and sign on bonus.    You should put the miles in mate, out virtually every weekday night watching rep football, county etc....

[Guest]

Just now, Sparks Rover said:

Why not?  You've got all those online qualifications,  clubs would be happy to have you work for nothing, just expenses and sign on bonus.    You should put the miles in mate, out virtually every weekday night watching rep football, county etc....

I wish I could, and one day I will. But I can't. I run a business, I have a 9-5 day job, I have a part time job with EA Sports, I run an Under 7's grassroots team and I'm only 20 years old so I've not got a mass of funds to support the travel it would require.

I simply couldn't fit it in right now. It's absolutely something I'd love to do in the future when time and finance allows, but right now the first step was getting the quals and doing what little tit bits of work I can here and there for certain teams.

I get the gist that it's something you're involved with, which is ace, and one day I'd definitely like to be involved in that too.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Does this scouting/data thing only work for players, or does it encompass back room staff, managers etc?

Sadly I'd say data on managers is lacking quite far behind at the moment. It's difficult because I'd say most things you need in a manager are behind closed doors. It's their ability to inspire, to work man to man with footballers on a day to day basis. You can't really track or benchmark those skills. With management I think it's a bit more cut and dry, you have it or you don't. 

That's just the way I see it though. Perhaps others would see a way of tracking manager performance - sheer win % can be easily swayed by the clubs level in the league they're in and the player quality they have.

[Sparks Rover]

1 minute ago, JoeH said:

I I run an Under 7's grassroots team and I'm only 20 years old

Good on you, Joe.  You've gone up in my estimation.  I'm assuming you didn't have a kid at 14 so well done for volunteering and not a parent.👊👏

[Guest]

Just now, Sparks Rover said:

Good on you, Joe.  You've gone up in my estimation.  I'm assuming you didn't have a kid at 14 so well done for volunteering and not a parent.👊👏

No I have thankfully managed to avoid fatherhood thus far! I get them for a few hours a week and I think that's more than enough for now 😅

[Bigdoggsteel]

2 hours ago, JoeH said:

I do claim knowledge, I have qualifications to support that knowledge too. I don't claim my opinions to be fact.

I do know that Rovers, like almost every club, work within certain structures. That is a fact, not a guess or an opinion. You can choose to believe said fact or not believe it.

I can't factually say if a target is good, I can use my knowledge to say what the data says. I don't pretend that its fact.

All we can go off are recent signings and let's be honest, they haven't been good, have they? We have signed more players from Boro than Europe under Mowbray, way more. So something isn't working. It's either not being done properly,or the manager is rejecting good proposals.  

Which do you think it is? 

It appears to me that our recruitment is light years behind other clubs in the division. Night and day. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

23 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I should be transparent, as I don't want to be accused of being deceitful. I haven't undertaken any recruitment work within a professional football club, and certainly I wasn't trying to claim as such.

I have undertaken other types of work within Talent ID. I do have some knowledge of how it works from connections in that industry. I have spoken with many people, including people involved at Rovers.

I spoke as I said with a coach at Liverpool's Academy on Saturday morning who had some great insight into the happenings at Rochdale's Cat 3 academy where despite a budget 1/5th the size of Liverpool's, they continue to churn out local talents to be sold or used in their first team. We touched on Harvey Elliott and the message was pretty clear, they're impressed with his time here and there were never any worries of his return to Merseyside in the January window. He was pretty open about the ways in which data has changed youth development, youth recruitment and scouting and its conversations such as these that I feel allow me to say - this is how it usually works and how I've heard it works. 

I'm not claiming my opinions on footballers are facts, because that's a load of tosh, I never would. I don't claim that data for example should be used solely to recruit footballers at any level. I just know for a fact that Rovers do devise lists in those ways, and I know that just because a HoR leaves for another club, it doesn't mean that those targets are also lost.

*and if sharing my knowledge on this is perceived as condescending by some, that's out of my control. People who work within Law would probably be able to share some great knowledge on a thread that references it heavily and I wouldn't personally take it as an insult if they chose to share their thoughts. I am genuinely not actively seeking to speak down to anyone, only share my thoughts and experiences. I am sure there are people on the threads who've undertaken more work within the football industry, and I would welcome their thoughts on Rovers recruitment set up and the ways in which it doesn't or does use data.

They probably regret that decision now. I assume they could have gotten him a club still in the mix for promotion. 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

They probably regret that decision now. I assume they could have gotten him a club still in the mix for promotion. 

I think it was also implied that not only was it not something they wanted, even if they did, I don’t think it was contractually possible for them to recall. I think.

[roversfan99]

20 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I should be transparent, as I don't want to be accused of being deceitful. I haven't undertaken any recruitment work within a professional football club, and certainly I wasn't trying to claim as such.

I have undertaken other types of work within Talent ID. I do have some knowledge of how it works from connections in that industry. I have spoken with many people, including people involved at Rovers.

I spoke as I said with a coach at Liverpool's Academy on Saturday morning who had some great insight into the happenings at Rochdale's Cat 3 academy where despite a budget 1/5th the size of Liverpool's, they continue to churn out local talents to be sold or used in their first team. We touched on Harvey Elliott and the message was pretty clear, they're impressed with his time here and there were never any worries of his return to Merseyside in the January window. He was pretty open about the ways in which data has changed youth development, youth recruitment and scouting and its conversations such as these that I feel allow me to say - this is how it usually works and how I've heard it works. 

I'm not claiming my opinions on footballers are facts, because that's a load of tosh, I never would. I don't claim that data for example should be used solely to recruit footballers at any level. I just know for a fact that Rovers do devise lists in those ways, and I know that just because a HoR leaves for another club, it doesn't mean that those targets are also lost.

*and if sharing my knowledge on this is perceived as condescending by some, that's out of my control. People who work within Law would probably be able to share some great knowledge on a thread that references it heavily and I wouldn't personally take it as an insult if they chose to share their thoughts. I am genuinely not actively seeking to speak down to anyone, only share my thoughts and experiences. I am sure there are people on the threads who've undertaken more work within the football industry, and I would welcome their thoughts on Rovers recruitment set up and the ways in which it doesn't or does use data.

 

20 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I should be transparent, as I don't want to be accused of being deceitful. I haven't undertaken any recruitment work within a professional football club, and certainly I wasn't trying to claim as such.

I have undertaken other types of work within Talent ID. I do have some knowledge of how it works from connections in that industry. I have spoken with many people, including people involved at Rovers.

I spoke as I said with a coach at Liverpool's Academy on Saturday morning who had some great insight into the happenings at Rochdale's Cat 3 academy where despite a budget 1/5th the size of Liverpool's, they continue to churn out local talents to be sold or used in their first team. We touched on Harvey Elliott and the message was pretty clear, they're impressed with his time here and there were never any worries of his return to Merseyside in the January window. He was pretty open about the ways in which data has changed youth development, youth recruitment and scouting and its conversations such as these that I feel allow me to say - this is how it usually works and how I've heard it works. 

I'm not claiming my opinions on footballers are facts, because that's a load of tosh, I never would. I don't claim that data for example should be used solely to recruit footballers at any level. I just know for a fact that Rovers do devise lists in those ways, and I know that just because a HoR leaves for another club, it doesn't mean that those targets are also lost.

*and if sharing my knowledge on this is perceived as condescending by some, that's out of my control. People who work within Law would probably be able to share some great knowledge on a thread that references it heavily and I wouldn't personally take it as an insult if they chose to share their thoughts. I am genuinely not actively seeking to speak down to anyone, only share my thoughts and experiences. I am sure there are people on the threads who've undertaken more work within the football industry, and I would welcome their thoughts on Rovers recruitment set up and the ways in which it doesn't or does use data.

Fair enough. My comments were regarding my opinion that nothing in the last few years suggests that the organisation especially around recruitment is efficient, is effective, is proactive, is well planned out or is consistent. Your comments seem to be more about how football clubs in general across the board tend to work, we may have lists of targets, indeed the manager often suggests we do, but recruitment at our club has been a mess for a while.

[roversfan99]

23 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

All we can go off are recent signings and let's be honest, they haven't been good, have they? We have signed more players from Boro than Europe under Mowbray, way more. So something isn't working. It's either not being done properly,or the manager is rejecting good proposals.  

Which do you think it is? 

It appears to me that our recruitment is light years behind other clubs in the division. Night and day. 

Absolutely, where is the consistency? Our budget year in year out (when our seasons tend to end competitively very early due to our constant mediocrity) is not sorted until well after the season ends, so communication between manager and owners is non existent, the manager going to India with a begging bowl weeks into the summer is hardly proactive, and always his interviews prior show he hasnt the foggiest what the budget is, so how can we plan.

There is no rhyme or reason. First signing this summer was Kaminski, one from Europe that was well scouted. The second one was a Boro old boy on a long deal with seemingly no due diligence done in the medical. We sign another European goalkeeper who is nowhere to be seen. Then we do most of the business on the last day, 5 or 6 games in. An aging left back on loan to plug the gap, another Boro old boy on a long deal to sit on the bench, a talented player on loan who seemingly was very much a last minute bonus, and then yet another central midfielder unwanted by his club. And then another few weeks down the line, a player who did very well in his first season here, a Boro old boy, but who is very old yet we for some unknown reason waited so long to sign him back up, even when we already have so many midfielders and who was chronically unfit due to the delay and has rarely featured. 

The lists are clearly hardly watertight either. When we came up, Bauer was clearly our main target at CB. A big, tall, aerielly strong centre back. We didnt get him, so we then signed Rodwell, an injury prone midfielder who Mowbray planned to move there. Hardly similar! You also look up front, he signed Gallagher and publically admitted an interest in Joao, so he is just going for familiar faces. Dack, Gladwin and Brereton all signed based on "playing well" against his teams in the past.

[Sparks Rover]

25 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Your comments seem to be more about how football clubs in general across the board tend to work, 

I think the word is "should".....Mowbray and other managers do this, make out we've got it all going on and then its revert to the old boys network because 90% of the lists are not doing Mowbrays contacts any good.  He's a mates mate is Tony, football is done on a nod and a shake and if you can help a mate out great like.  Just feathering the nest

Edited April 4, 2021 by Sparks Rover

[tomphil]

17 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Absolutely, where is the consistency? Our budget year in year out (when our seasons tend to end competitively very early due to our constant mediocrity) is not sorted until well after the season ends, so communication between manager and owners is non existent, the manager going to India with a begging bowl weeks into the summer is hardly proactive, and always his interviews prior show he hasnt the foggiest what the budget is, so how can we plan.

There is no rhyme or reason. First signing this summer was Kaminski, one from Europe that was well scouted. The second one was a Boro old boy on a long deal with seemingly no due diligence done in the medical. We sign another European goalkeeper who is nowhere to be seen. Then we do most of the business on the last day, 5 or 6 games in. An aging left back on loan to plug the gap, another Boro old boy on a long deal to sit on the bench, a talented player on loan who seemingly was very much a last minute bonus, and then yet another central midfielder unwanted by his club. And then another few weeks down the line, a player who did very well in his first season here, a Boro old boy, but who is very old yet we for some unknown reason waited so long to sign him back up, even when we already have so many midfielders and who was chronically unfit due to the delay and has rarely featured. 

The lists are clearly hardly watertight either. When we came up, Bauer was clearly our main target at CB. A big, tall, aerielly strong centre back. We didnt get him, so we then signed Rodwell, an injury prone midfielder who Mowbray planned to move there. Hardly similar! You also look up front, he signed Gallagher and publically admitted an interest in Joao, so he is just going for familiar faces. Dack, Gladwin and Brereton all signed based on "playing well" against his teams in the past.

Considering how tough he looked as a defender is odd but Mowbray the manager has balls the size of raisins.

He really isn't very good at backing himself with an aggressive attacking team or signings outside of his black book.

All about the comfort zone for our Tony.

[Bigdoggsteel]

19 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Absolutely, where is the consistency? Our budget year in year out (when our seasons tend to end competitively very early due to our constant mediocrity) is not sorted until well after the season ends, so communication between manager and owners is non existent, the manager going to India with a begging bowl weeks into the summer is hardly proactive, and always his interviews prior show he hasnt the foggiest what the budget is, so how can we plan.

There is no rhyme or reason. First signing this summer was Kaminski, one from Europe that was well scouted. The second one was a Boro old boy on a long deal with seemingly no due diligence done in the medical. We sign another European goalkeeper who is nowhere to be seen. Then we do most of the business on the last day, 5 or 6 games in. An aging left back on loan to plug the gap, another Boro old boy on a long deal to sit on the bench, a talented player on loan who seemingly was very much a last minute bonus, and then yet another central midfielder unwanted by his club. And then another few weeks down the line, a player who did very well in his first season here, a Boro old boy, but who is very old yet we for some unknown reason waited so long to sign him back up, even when we already have so many midfielders and who was chronically unfit due to the delay and has rarely featured. 

The lists are clearly hardly watertight either. When we came up, Bauer was clearly our main target at CB. A big, tall, aerielly strong centre back. We didnt get him, so we then signed Rodwell, an injury prone midfielder who Mowbray planned to move there. Hardly similar! You also look up front, he signed Gallagher and publically admitted an interest in Joao, so he is just going for familiar faces. Dack, Gladwin and Brereton all signed based on "playing well" against his teams in the past.

Yep. There is no consistency or anything really to suggest there is a "plan". I agree with everything you say. Then you add in signing players who don't fit how we play, or players for positions they don't play their best in. I mean this is the reality. Our recruitment is a mess. 

I was thinking about another thing as well. My mate supports villa. You look at them getting Terry in. Look at our coaching set up. It's bargain basement stuff, with no ambition. 

To be fair he got us out of League 1, but if he hadn't lucked out with Dack and AA, he would be gone and we could still be there. Anyway, a lot of that good will is gone for me. He is incapable of admitting fault. To me in my job, I find that an awful, awful trait. The best can easily accept blame. If he goes at the end of the season, I will give him the credit he deserves, if he stays though.....

[bluebruce]

1 hour ago, JoeH said:

Perhaps others would see a way of tracking manager performance - sheer win % can be easily swayed by the clubs level in the league they're in and the player quality they have.

Maybe win percentage relative to win percentage that club had in the year before a manager took over. Like a win percentage improvement stat. Although I'd say points are more important than wins.

Difficult with promoted sides, but for those you could take an aggregate of the three promoted teams from the season before (or a 5, 10 year aggregate if you liked) and create an 'expected points' metric to compare it to, sort of in the vein of xg. Then see how the manager performs for points compared to that. Depending how you view these things you could also base it on teams who have finished 1st, 2nd or won the playoffs, to tailor it more, but I think I saw a stat years ago that the team winning the playoffs actually tend to do better than the team finishing 2nd, so that might indicate it isn't too useful.

It might be possible to add in other factors too, like net transfer spend relative to performance, or altering the expected points metric, with a bit of tinkering. Tricky though, especially since so many fees are undisclosed which probably makes it a non starter. Maybe player number turnover though, which could indicate how a manager deals with a rebuild.

On the whole I agree managers are harder to run data on, but there are things that can be done. Comparing league finish to that predicted by the bookies could be another, although that has an element of subjectivity.