Attendances: A cause for concern

[Wheelton Blue]

12 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Not true. If one season ends with 8500 ST holders, and the season after we have 7,200, considering there is always a similar numbers of walk ons, even if we are doing a little better on the pitch or similar, the home crowd will have fallen by approximately that number in the following season.

Now once you start doing really well, walk ons tick up, but they can’t do the heavy lifting of those missing ST holders. A prime example to why crowds are substantially smaller than 2001, we then had c12k ST holders, not 8k walk ons were similar.

Facts are facts, no ‘guessing’ from me.
 

And why would the number of season ticket holders have dropped in the first place? Because of the product on offer, that's why.

I'll say it again. Season ticket sales and walk on sales are a direct consequence of the product on offer. Improve that, and both go up.

You're whole argument is flawed on the basis that lapsed season ticket holders simply all disappear. That's just not true.

Anyway, to repeat, the source of truth is with the club. They should know their customer base far better than we do.

 

 

[Mattyblue]

I don’t think they all disappear, of course they don’t. It’s all a flux.

Your argument is flawed, as you can have a better season on the pitch the season after the fall in sales, but still have lower crowds - why? Because we have fewer ST holders, and the same applies with an increase. This has been proven time after time since the 90s.

We’ll have to leave it there, as you are using anecdotal examples, I’m using the actual stats. So we can’t get anywhere here.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Mattyblue

[Wheelton Blue]

1 minute ago, Mattyblue said:

I don’t think they all disappear, of course they don’t. It’s all a flux.

Your argument is flawed, as you can have a better season on the pitch the season after the fall in sales, but still have lower crowds - why? Because we have fewer ST holders, and vice versa. This has been proven time after time since the 90s.

We’ll have to leave it there, as you are using anecdotal examples, I’m using the actual stats. So we can’t get anywhere here.

Yeah - and the season after I'd expect season ticket sales to increase again, all things being equal. Why? Because the product has improved.

Our season ticket sales this year went down versus last season. I'd suggest the main reason why was the product being worse.

Why don't you share your stats? Perhaps then we can see what other factors may influence the numbers.

[Mattyblue]

Getting silly this, you are arguing points I’m not. Of course, ST sales can and often do drop on the back of a bad season, though not exclusively, in the PL they often dropped or rose on price. Yet, either way, that season would then see an equivalent rise or drop in attendances, with often little difference in the product on the pitch.

They aren’t ‘my stats’, just me perusing the published crowd figures, feel free to have a look.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Mattyblue

[Wheelton Blue]

You're arguing that attendances are simply a direct consequence of season ticket sales.

I'm aruguing that attendances - both season ticket sales and walk on sales - are a direct consequence of the product on offer.

The club can't simply just 'increase season tickets'. There has to be a driver behind that, which is primarily the product on offer. 

All other things being equal, improve the product, season ticket sales increase, walk ons increase, and overall attendances increase.

The solution is to improve the product on offer, the rest should then follow.

[Hasta]

34 minutes ago, Wheelton Blue said:

And why would the number of season ticket holders have dropped in the first place? Because of the product on offer, that's why.

I'll say it again. Season ticket sales and walk on sales are a direct consequence of the product on offer. Improve that, and both go up.

And I’ll say it again, on a weekly basis I talk to people around Blackburn who watch every game, who know all the players and who are fully tuned up on what’s happening at Ewood.. Many are former attendees, either regular or casual, at Ewood and yet have not been for several years. Stop iFollow thus stopping illegal streaming and attendances will go up. It really is the elephant in the room.
 

Edited February 12, 2022 by Hasta

[Mattyblue]

Unless we are doing really well (like recently), walk on sales don’t actually vary much year on year.

On your general point, Wheelton, I agree, of course the product in previous years impacts sales. what I’m talking about is the end result of crap football and therefore crap sales on the following season’s crowds. As even if that season sees an improvement, crowds will still be lower - a direct consequence of that previous shit season impacting the crowds of the following better one, not why they’ve fallen in the first place.

We are seeing this now. Some posters can’t understand why crowds still aren’t getting that high. Walk ons have risen, but we still bumbling around at c 13k, compare to 2001 - usually a standard crowd of 16/17k, why? 12k ST holders then, 8k now.

 

Edited February 12, 2022 by Mattyblue

[Wheelton Blue]

2 minutes ago, Hasta said:

And I’ll say it again, on a weekly basis I talk to people around Blackburn who watch every game, who know all the players and who are fully tuned up on what’s happening at Ewood.. Many are former attendees, either regular or casual, at Ewood and yet have not been for several years. Stop iFollow thus stopping illegal streaming and attendances will go up. It really is the elephant in the room.
 

I don't disagree with this. I have family members - ex season ticket holders - who now only go to the odd game at Ewood and primarily watch on iFollow/Sky or a dodgy stream otherwise.

I asked them why they don't go to Ewood more. The answer ... 'it's too expensive'. ie the product isn't good enough/value for money.

[Hasta]

3 minutes ago, Wheelton Blue said:

I asked them why they don't go to Ewood more. The answer ... 'it's too expensive'. ie the product isn't good enough/value for money.

They mean “it’s too expensive…..when I can get it for free”

[Wheelton Blue]

3 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Unless we are doing really well (like recently), walk on sales don’t actually vary much year on year.

On your general point, Wheelton, I agree, of course the product in previous years impacts sales. what I’m talking about is the end result of crap football and crap sales on the following season, not why they’ve fallen in the first place.

We are seeing this now. Some posters can’t understand why crowds still aren’t getting that high. Walk ons have risen, but we still aren’t getting close to 2001 - why? 12k ST holders then, 8k now.

 

We have what 12k supporters now (season tickets + walk ons) ?

I'm not convinced that if we had more season ticket holders, our attendances would have been much different thus far this season.

[Wheelton Blue]

1 minute ago, Hasta said:

They mean “it’s too expensive…..when I can get it for free”

They do pay and go to some games though (Boro/Preston etc). But run of the mill games, no. 

Your point is valid though. It's all too easy to watch games from home, either legally or otherwise.

[rigger]

35 minutes ago, Wheelton Blue said:

Yeah - and the season after I'd expect season ticket sales to increase again, all things being equal. Why? Because the product has improved.

Our season ticket sales this year went down versus last season. I'd suggest the main reason why was the product being worse.

Why don't you share your stats? Perhaps then we can see what other factors may influence the numbers.

Death and infirmaty. We have a lot of old fans.

[matt83]

For me personally having a season ticket is a huge psychological impact on going. Even though no one is pointing a gun to my head to attend if I’ve paid for it I feel the necessity to drag myself to the ground even when I don’t fancy going. With a season ticket I’ll only miss a handful of games without one I’ll go to a handful of games.

Season tickets sales are so important. Otherwise the lure of the firestick or the pub is just too much. Even on the odd occasion I’ve fancied going but won’t pay over £30 to watch rovers in the championship out of principle. 

[Mattyblue]

9 minutes ago, Wheelton Blue said:

We have what 12k supporters now (season tickets + walk ons) ?

I'm not convinced that if we had more season ticket holders, our attendances would have been much different thus far this season.

Yes, and then we had 12k plus 3/4k walk ons.

Yes, they would be higher. Crux of my whole argument, you disagree, fine, but the evidence is there… and not just here by the way, ST sales reduce, crowds reduce.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Mattyblue

[Wheelton Blue]

1 minute ago, Mattyblue said:

Yes, and then we had 12k plus 3k walk ons.

Yes, they would be higher. 

Forest at home this week.

If we had an extra 1,000 season ticket holders, do you thnk the home attendance would have gone up by 1,000?

[Mattyblue]

Yes.

[Wheelton Blue]

16 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Yes.

Where would they come from?

[Mattyblue]

From the fanbase, where else? Just like anytime you increase ST holders, where will all the extra numbers come from on promotion?

Edited February 12, 2022 by Mattyblue

[tomphil]

1 hour ago, Hasta said:

And I’ll say it again, on a weekly basis I talk to people around Blackburn who watch every game, who know all the players and who are fully tuned up on what’s happening at Ewood.. Many are former attendees, either regular or casual, at Ewood and yet have not been for several years. Stop iFollow thus stopping illegal streaming and attendances will go up. It really is the elephant in the room.
 

This is the knock on effect of the empty stadiums during the pandemic a lot of regulars have discovered the steaming and iFollow.  Far too easy to sit the living room and save the money for the odd trek to Ewood or big day out at Wigan and the like.

[Wheelton Blue]

4 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

From the fanbase, where else? Just like anytime you increase ST holders, where will all the extra numbers come from on promotion?

Which part of the fanbase, is my question.

Elapsed season ticket holders who no longer attend? Elapsed season ticket holders who are now walk ons? Elapsed walk ons who aren't currently attending at all?

For your theory to hold true (1,000 increase in STs = 1,000 overall increase for the Forest game), where the 1,000 comes from matters.

[Mattyblue]

Largely lapsed ST holders.

[Wheelton Blue]

9 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Largely lapsed ST holders.

Those who no longer attend, or who still attend but as walk ons?

If it's the latter, then they would need replacing by new walkons for your theory to hold.

This is why I think it's too simplistic to say 'increase STs and overall attendances will increase the same'. 

 

[Mattyblue]

Those who largely (not exclusively) don’t attend as walk ons, as the lapsed ST holder and the walk on are largely (not exclusively) two distinct groups. Walk ons tend to stay that way year in year out as that’s how they prefer to consume games.

I’m going to leave it here, the figures are there for you to pursue at your leisure, and I imagine this is boring the pants off everybody else.
 

 

[Nuttall is lost]

Ewood Park is too big for Blackburn.  A 15,000-20,000 capacity stadium would have been plenty.

[Mattyblue]

Too big for who?

As an also ran in this division, perhaps, but considering even under Kean our average PL crowd was around 23,000, I’d say that’s obviously not the case for a club with aspirations of promotion.