January Transfer window 2022

[SBlue]

14 minutes ago, RV Blue said:

Yes. although I think Nuttall did it in the division below

Looks like you're right, both confusingly called "PL2"

Still, although a promising signing, the point stands - it's always a gamble if an u23 player can make the step up.

[roversfan99]

One that I think that we have been linked with before, according to Sky Sports is going to Cardiff:

Manchester City midfielder Tommy Doyle is set to join Championship side Cardiff on loan until the end of the season.

The deal would come after ending Doyle's current loan spell at Hamburg. He would then join Cardiff with the aim of achieving more playing time in order to aid his development.

If a deal can be agreed in the coming days, a medical should be completed imminently.

[Crimpshrine]

@RoverCanada Thanks for your very interesting input as always.

Couple of questions: You say we have £6m free spend over the next 3 seasons but, presumably we could spend that right now and still be within FFP at the end of 21/22 season ( and obviously, think about the consequences later ). 

The table shows an allowed FFP loss of £51.4M over the last 4 years and you have estimated we are at £37.1M - even with a relatively conservative estimate of £8m profit on the training ground sale - I would think it could be higher. 

So from those figures don't we have quite a buffer just at the moment - enough to take a gamble on promotion by spending now ? 

[Polky]

 

Evening Standard are claiming it will be a 3.5 year contract.

 

[bluebruce]

33 minutes ago, joey_big_nose said:

Yes Kaminski has been transformational and obviously experinced.

I would have agreed with you on CB, but we currently have our best defence since the days of Nelsen and Samba (incidentally both themselves from "lower league" backgrounds) staffed by two kids (Wharton, Van Hecke) and one of our kids who has become senior (Lenihan).

I know we have the two kids of course, but Lenihan definitely counts as experienced and Ayala is waiting in the wings. Nyambe is experienced by now for me, despite still being young. Pickering has over 160 career appearances. Even Wharton and Van Hecke had professional experience before now on loans in League Two and the Dutch leagues. But I was more talking in the sense that if it's important to have experience anywhere, those are the positions where having someone experienced is most effective. If Lenihan and Ayala were out, I'd suddenly be a lot less confident about a defence of Wharton, Van Hecke and Carter for any stretch of time, not that I think any of them are crap.

[roversfan99]

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/sport/19676622.blackburn-rovers-training-ground-sold-16-6m-new-venkys-company/

Sems that the value of the "sale" was over double the 8m.

[bluebruce]

1 minute ago, BRFC_Polky said:

 

Evening Standard are claiming it will be a 3.5 year contract.

 

What's the betting he starts tearing it up when there's a year left on that?

[Rochdale_rover]

Has zefuik signed yet ??

 

With a name like that he has to have a chant. 

 

Had a crack myself 

 

 

Oh, I don't know why he's leaving
Or where he's gonna go
We offered him a contract
But ryan doesnt want to know
Hes aged 24 years
And he's heading out the door for dayo

Dayo who zeefuik is dayo

24 years just waiting for a chance
To finally sign a player who's name goes with this chant
It's finally happened now were singing in the stands ,  hes dayo

Dayo who zeefuik is dayo

 

[Norn Iron Rover]

4 minutes ago, Rochdale_rover said:

Has zefuik signed yet ??

 

With a name like that he has to have a chant. 

 

Had a crack myself 

 

 

Oh, I don't know why he's leaving
Or where he's gonna go
We offered him a contract
But ryan doesnt want to know
Hes aged 24 years
And he's heading out the door for dayo

Dayo who zeefuik is dayo

24 years just waiting for a chance
To finally sign a player who's name goes with this chant
It's finally happened now were singing in the stands ,  hes dayo

Dayo who zeefuik is dayo

 

👏

[RoverCanada]

54 minutes ago, Crimpshrine said:

@RoverCanada Thanks for your very interesting input as always.

Couple of questions: You say we have £6m free spend over the next 3 seasons but, presumably we could spend that right now and still be within FFP at the end of 21/22 season ( and obviously, think about the consequences later ). 

The table shows an allowed FFP loss of £51.4M over the last 4 years and you have estimated we are at £37.1M - even with a relatively conservative estimate of £8m profit on the training ground sale - I would think it could be higher. 

So from those figures don't we have quite a buffer just at the moment - enough to take a gamble on promotion by spending now ? 

Honestly hard to say and it's open to interpretation!

With the Armstrong/training ground sales, we should be well within a 3-year FFP cycle this year (and with some headroom going forward), but the issue is we likely breached the 3-year FFP cycle last year. My guess is the EFL gave us a pass on that due to staying within a 4-year FFP cycle including this year (due to Covid), leaving us technically transfer embargo free. So, you're probably right that we can spend now as the EFL isn't approving our transactions one-by-one, but they will likely slap us with a transfer embargo real quick afterwards (you could think that we're 'conditionally' transfer embargo free... which I suppose is the case for every club!). And the EFL will likely be wondering 'wtf' haha

The 3-year FFP cycles does create some perverse incentives...

There's always the view that gambling is worth it because clubs that have gotten promoted and breached FFP in the past have gotten away with slap on the wrist fines. However, I'd also caution that the EFL is slowly starting to finally show some 'bite' in its latest FFP sanctions if we don't get promoted (if you look at the detail of Reading's sanctions, they're going to have financial handcuffs for years). I wouldn't fault either interpretation!

As discussed below, our training ground sale could be a few more million 'profitable' than I've guessed, which would give us some more wiggle room this season. I wouldn't be surprised if we could afford a £2-3m transfer fee (but not multiple such fees), but we obviously don't want to show our hand...

49 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/sport/19676622.blackburn-rovers-training-ground-sold-16-6m-new-venkys-company/

Sems that the value of the "sale" was over double the 8m.

True, but in terms of profit and loss, it'll depend on how much amortisation was left on the training ground. Suppose it cost £15m to build it 10 years ago with 20-year straight line depreciation, then that's £7.5m of amortisation left to go, so we'd only be able to book a 'profit' of 16.6-7.5=£9.1, (Any capital investments in the interim further complicate that calculation! So, I wasn't surprised it took a while to clear with the EFL)

Someone more familiar may be able to put a guess together (I don't know the figures myself!)

But how much we did 'profit' from that sale is obviously a key variable! I just tried to be conservative and based it on Reading's similar sale: they sold theirs for £13m when it had an account value of £5m, so £8m profit.

---

Anyway, let's not derail this thread too much debating a bunch of numbers nobody can actually know 🙂

Edited January 14, 2022 by RoverCanada

[SoldierMo]

 

Phil jagielka has left Derby…let carter go on loan get Jagielka in can play in back 3 and an experience head can be the Short of this season

[EgyptianPete]

5 minutes ago, SoldierMo said:

 

Already gone to Stoke i think

 

Phil jagielka has left Derby…let carter go on loan get Jagielka in can play in back 3 and an experience head can be the Short of this season

 

[SoldierMo]

Oh man you right

[Theaxe15]

1 hour ago, Rochdale_rover said:

Has zefuik signed yet ??

 

With a name like that he has to have a chant. 

 

Had a crack myself 

 

 

Oh, I don't know why he's leaving
Or where he's gonna go
We offered him a contract
But ryan doesnt want to know
Hes aged 24 years
And he's heading out the door for dayo

Dayo who zeefuik is dayo

24 years just waiting for a chance
To finally sign a player who's name goes with this chant
It's finally happened now were singing in the stands ,  hes dayo

Dayo who zeefuik is dayo

 

Nearly made me cringe to death this

[bluebruce]

10 minutes ago, Theaxe15 said:

Nearly made me cringe to death this

I'm sure you'll be posting your superior offering shortly.

[Theaxe15]

2 minutes ago, bluebruce said:

I'm sure you'll be posting your superior offering shortly.

I’m a man in my 30s, I don’t sit around trying to write new football chants

[Guest]

New place for insider sources are instagram it seems, JPVH and Kaminski have followed Zeefuik.

[Rochdale_rover]

4 minutes ago, Theaxe15 said:

I’m a man in my 30s, I don’t sit around trying to write new football chants

Also a man in my 30s . Didn't realise there was an age cut off point.

 

I apologise.   👍 

[chaddyrovers]

2 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Those defending Venkys pre-empting a window with minimal spend seem to focus their argument as if the counter argument is wild, aggressive spending that will lead us into an embargo, something that nobody has suggested.

We don't even what the budget is for the window. Yes we have to be careful and think of the medium and long term but have we can spend couple of millions in this window

2 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Take the link for this Matt O'Riley for example, I am very much using it as a general example because I do not know the player well, but taking him as a young player starring in League 1. In theory a player of that supposed calibre (not player specific) ticks all boxes, he wouldn't walk into our team now but he would provide much more stern competition and an added dimension to our squad for the promotion push. If we go up, great, Rothwell may sign up long term and we just have another long term asset who has helped us this season. More prudently, if we don't go up, Rothwell most likely leaves in the summer and we have a potential replacement already at the club, one less space to fill. Come the summer, we likely will have another big fee but numerous holes to fill, there is one less. Yet £1.7m is apparently beyond our means.

Do you think we should just pay O'Riley asking price that MK Dons want or negotiate a price more suitable to us? No idea if he is any good or worth 1.7 million pounds

Or could we used the money better where we can bring in 2 or 3 players? 

[JBiz]

5 minutes ago, Rochdale_rover said:

Also a man in my 30s . Didn't realise there was an age cut off point.

 

I apologise.   👍 

Don’t apologise, cracked me up at least.

From another mid 30s man who makes songs up that nobody will ever sing.

Word to the wise though, last time I made one up about a potential signing as opposed to a confirmed one, it never happened 😂 

 

“the Mongongu is coming, and every one is running”…. 

[Rochdale_rover]

3 minutes ago, JBiz said:

Don’t apologise, cracked me up at least.

From another mid 30s man who makes songs up that nobody will ever sing.

Word to the wise though, last time I made one up about a potential signing as opposed to a confirmed one, it never happened 😂 

 

“the Mongongu is coming, and every one is running”…. 

Haha. Hopefully he signs and we can break the curse of the over 30s song writers.

 

All jokes aside he looks decent so hopefully we snap him up

[rigger]

58 minutes ago, Mellor Rover said:

New place for insider sources are instagram it seems, JPVH and Kaminski have followed Zeefuik.

followed him where ?

[RoversClitheroe]

Zeefuik announced

[Ossydave]

New signing set to be announced, it'll be the right back....

[Cherry Blue]

Welcome loan signing Deyovaisio Zeefuik RB from Hertha Berlin subject to international clearance.