January Transfer window 2022

[J*B]

1 minute ago, Mattyblue said:

And that will be enough, will it?

Considering we had to sell a high value player and our training ground to just ‘scrape through’ last time?

I don’t think they’re expecting to have another global pandemic anytime soon. 

[Mattyblue]

Well obviously BB is going this summer.

My point being that we won’t have another BB or fixed asset to sell every cycle, then what?

[J*B]

1 minute ago, Mattyblue said:

Well obviously BB is going this summer.

My point being that we won’t have another BB or fixed asset to sell every cycle, then what?

The plan is to fix up a rough diamond to sell every summer. Although it’s more like every 18 months that we would need a big sale.

It’s the Brentford model, Mowbray has said it himself. Polish up a diamond, sell for big money. Reinvest wisely, buy two/three rough diamonds. Polish them up, sell one/two of them. Reinvest wisely, buy two/three rough diamonds.

Eventually you’ve got a team with enough diamonds that you’re promoted. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Why don’t just they just sell up and eff off. What good are they actually doing to anybody ?  I never thought I’d ever quote David Davies but as he said to Johnson - “ You have sat there too long for all the good you have done, in the name of God go “.

[J*B]

6 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

Why don’t just they just sell up and eff off. What good are they actually doing to anybody ?  I never thought I’d ever quote David Davies but as he said to Johnson - “ You have sat there too long for all the good you have done, in the name of God go “.

Because they’ve got a completely unsellable asset. If they sell up today they’ll need to write off all their debts and would be lucky to get £30M. They would stand to lose over £200M.

In the interest of being transparent - although how much you choose to believe is at your own discretion - here’s an exact quote I received from a current, senior Rovers/Venkys employee, that uses this Forum, when I asked the same question:

Suhail and Babu run the club on behalf of Balaji. Each of the family have their own financial interests from their fathers inheritance, Blackburn is Balaji. Balaji's son studies in the UK and enjoys following and attending games. Its a personal passion for father and son.

 

[roversfan99]

6 minutes ago, J*B said:

The plan is to fix up a rough diamond to sell every summer. Although it’s more like every 18 months that we would need a big sale.

It’s the Brentford model, Mowbray has said it himself. Polish up a diamond, sell for big money. Reinvest wisely, buy two/three rough diamonds. Polish them up, sell one/two of them. Reinvest wisely, buy two/three rough diamonds.

Eventually you’ve got a team with enough diamonds that you’re promoted. 

It won't work unless its a continuous process, and Venkys have never shown signs that they have the willingness or competence to make it a continuous process.

 

[roversfan99]

Does Balaji's son support/attend Rovers games?

Which reminds me, Venkys promised to attend a game this season. I wonder if they will follow through on that promise.

[Mattyblue]

Again, aware of all that, J*B.

However, AA and BB are rare beasts, young forwards scoring lots of goals - ergo big premium on their price.

Many other ‘rough diamonds’ are unpolishable and most non-forwards at this level don’t sell for anywhere near top scoring forwards. It’s a model that could very well see us in the bottom 6 as the top… and I’ve accepted that’s how it is here these days, but *surely* considering an enormous and unexpected opportunity has presented itself *right now*, it has to be gone for (and that doesn’t mean chucking millions at it)? As we may not see it again… 

[islander200]

16 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

And that will be enough, will it?

Considering we had to sell a high value player and our training ground to just ‘scrape through’ last time?

Last time we spent 14 million on Brererton , Gallagher and Armstrong.And more on all the other players brought in. 

Spend has been minimal since.

 

We also lost a decent wedge of what we pay out in wages when the older players had Ran out of contract 

[Mattyblue]

1 minute ago, islander200 said:

Last time we spent 14 million on Brererton , Gallagher and Armstrong.And more on all the other players brought in. 

Spend has been minimal since.

 

We also lost a decent wedge of what we pay out in wages when the older players had Ran out of contract 

So we won’t be on the verge of FFP every cycle then? Believe that when I see it…

Edited January 23, 2022 by Mattyblue

[roversfan99]

Im not having personally that we are still right on the brink of FFP regulations.

[J*B]

14 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Again, aware of all that, J*B.

However, AA and BB are rare beasts, young forwards scoring lots of goals - ergo big premium on their price.

Many other ‘rough diamonds’ are unpolishable and most non-forwards at this level don’t sell for anywhere near top scoring forwards. It’s a model that could very well see us in the bottom 6 as the top… and I’ve accepted that’s how it is here these days, but *surely* considering an enormous and unexpected opportunity has presented itself *right now*, it has to be gone for (and that doesn’t mean chucking millions at it)? As we may not see it again… 

They’re not rare beasts, there’s tonnes of them. Rothwell would be worth good money if he would sign. Pickering is a multi million pound player now, same with Kaminski. Wharton is a multi million pound defender already. Mackaday will be the next striker. 

It’s a pointless discussion and you’re killing yourself if you’re thinking there’s a chance they’ll ‘go for it’ this January. This IS them going for it. They’ll stick to the Brentford model exactly. Remember what Brentford did, they where in a strong position for a couple of years before they went up. Anyone thinking “ignore the rules, get promoted then worry about the repercussions” are living in dream land. 

[J*B]

4 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Im not having personally that we are still right on the brink of FFP regulations.

Have you listened to the podcast I posted earlier where Rovers finances are gone through in detail? You can’t just say “I’m not having it” when the numbers clearly say we only just got through FFP. 

[Mattyblue]

I’m not ‘killing myself over it’ as I know they won’t, I was being facetious largely. We will obviously continue with the half baked ‘Brentford model’ until the owners change tact to something else down the line.

And yes, they are rare beasts, a contracted JR, and especially a run of the mill full back like Pickering would not be going for anywhere near a contracted BB.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Mattyblue

[islander200]

6 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

So we won’t be on the verge of FFP every cycle then? Believe that when I see it…

I don't have the answer to that.I just stated a fact this cycle Armstrong and training ground paid for we spent decently for a club with our external income with only 3 million recieved from Raya in that time.

Profit on Armstrong was roughly 10 million...Raya 5....and the training ground only 6 or 7 mill of that 16.6 is counted as profit

[J*B]

Just now, Mattyblue said:

I’m not ‘killing myself over it’ as I know they won’t, I was being facetious largely. We will obviously continue with the half baked ‘Brentford model’ until the owners change tact to something else down the line.

And yes, they are rare beasts, a contracted JR would not be going for anywhere near a contracted BB.

I reckon a contracted JR would be a £10M player to a PL team. That’s big money for a Championship midfielder. Especially one we signed for 300K. 

[roversfan99]

It's not about "ignoring the rules," and that is the part that those so keen to defend the owners don't seem to understand, the 2 choices are not stringent spending v wild, unplanned spending. I don't think that anyone has suggested wreckless spending that would see us go miles over FFP regulations, why would they.

The thing is, the June 2021 year seemingly was particularly problematic, hence the training ground sale to get around the FFP rules. Even if it is cyclical, the June 2022 accounting year will surely be considerably healthier compared to the last few years. The wage bill will be much lower, the Armstrong sale will be in this year too, and we will have a full year of ticket sales for the first time in 3 years.

[islander200]

1 minute ago, Mattyblue said:

I’m not ‘killing myself over it’ as I know they won’t, I was being facetious largely. We will obviously continue with the half baked ‘Brentford model’ until the owners change tact to something else down the line.

And yes, they are rare beasts, a contracted JR would not be going for anywhere near a contracted BB.

Buckley could potentially be sold for a big fee.

Every club in the championship sells players.

I'm in agreement that money should be spent this window.We should be taking advantage of the position we are in 

[Mattyblue]

Just now, J*B said:

I reckon a contracted JR would be a £10M player to a PL team. That’s big money for a Championship midfielder. Especially one we signed for 300K. 

Not a chance, but we’ll never know, as our half baked Brentford model forgets the most important part of it… have your sellable asset contracted!

[roversfan99]

Just now, J*B said:

I reckon a contracted JR would be a £10M player to a PL team. That’s big money for a Championship midfielder. Especially one we signed for 300K. 

Thats a totally hypothetical scenario. I don't think for one moment that a Premier League team would have Rothwell for 10m, I mean they could probably get him for much less right now yet no one seems keen to.

But ultimately, being perhaps over stringent and not allowing the flexibility to tie him down ultimately throws to one side any potential income from a sale which is obviously the natural end to the "polishing" of an asset. So it becomes a case of if my aunty had bollocks she would be my aunty. I don't think that Kaminski and Wharton are at this moment in this market multi million pound players, especially the former due to his contract. 

[Mattyblue]

1 minute ago, islander200 said:

Buckley could potentially be sold for a big fee.

Every club in the championship sells players.

I'm in agreement that money should be spent this window.We should be taking advantage of the position we are in 

But not for a fee of a young goal scoring forward, and it is obviously these BIG fees that are keeping us out of FFP…

[J*B]

1 minute ago, roversfan99 said:

It's not about "ignoring the rules," and that is the part that those so keen to defend the owners don't seem to understand, the 2 choices are not stringent spending v wild, unplanned spending. I don't think that anyone has suggested wreckless spending that would see us go miles over FFP regulations, why would they.

The thing is, the June 2021 year seemingly was particularly problematic, hence the training ground sale to get around the FFP rules. Even if it is cyclical, the June 2022 accounting year will surely be considerably healthier compared to the last few years. The wage bill will be much lower, the Armstrong sale will be in this year too, and we will have a full year of ticket sales for the first time in 3 years.

But FFP isn’t based on one year, it’s currently based on 4 years. So yes, this year will be better and will give us a little bit more flexibility than usual. But that doesn’t change the fact that the club makes an 8 figure loss every year. They either try and cover that with player sales or the reduce the running costs. I’d rather they went with player sales than selling the stadium, not having a Cat 1 academy, never signing a player for over a million. 

[Southside Rover]

If they go for it and it all goes wrong and we miss out the owners will get pelters for being reckless with our club. It's a bit like a government, dammed if they do, dammed if they don't.

By not exactly going for it this year we are having our best season in years so whilst I think they will still strengthen some more, they will also do it carefully to not leave the finances of the club at risk. With the Derby situation unfolding in real time, it makes total sense to continue as is. A lot of business is done late on and 2 or 3 faces to add some depth this week will give us that as long as the quality is right.

[J*B]

3 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Not a chance, but we’ll never know, as our half baked Brentford model forgets the most important part of it… have your sellable asset contracted!

It’s no secret we have a 15K / week wage cap. I half agree, rather than extending contracts I think we need to be selling our players earlier if they’re not signing new deals. 

[Mattyblue]

Would they buggery get ‘pelters’ for strengthening the squad when sitting third in January.