January Transfer window 2022

[JHRover]

Reading Mowbray's comments in the press I would tend to agree with the theory that he is getting his views out into the public domain, putting a bit of pressure on the owners and trying to avoid any finger of blame in his direction if the owners start playing silly beggars again in January.

I find it interesting how the Armstrong sale and substantial windfall is now just history. No mention of that cash or any reinvestment of it. Gone, Done, Dusted, forgotten about, move on.

I think Mowbray is expecting similar in the event of any sales - the money will just go and he will have to try and pull some more rabbits out of the loan market hat. Only so long that can go on.

Some might say this is fair enough, the owners have spent heavily in the last few years and are entitled to claw some money back. Of course they are. But by the same measure you would expect billionaires who are determined to get back to the PL to sense an opportunity this season and to show the money for some key additions rather than sales.

You would also expect them to push the boat out to keep Brereton under long term contract rather than hide behind self-imposed wage structures. It is simple - if the cost of paying him more for the next couple of years is less than the amount it puts on his transfer value then it is worth doing. If a new contract costs the club a few million but adds £10 million to his transfer value it is worth it.

My view is that there has been radio silence from the top owners in India - Mr and Mrs Desai - for at least a year now. Because of that Mowbray has been unable to persuade them to release funds or issue new contracts and I think there is plenty of evidence for that in the state of the contracts and recruitment which has been extremely short term and low cost since summer 2020.

 

[RoverCanada]

Thought I'd briefly revisit these calculations I did about a month ago. White cells are actuals, yellow are my guesses.

Compared to last time:

- I've shifted the STC sale profit to 2020-21 rather than 2021-22, as looks like that was squeezed in at the end of the 2020-21 fiscal year due to changing EFL rules (and I've lowered the assumed profit to £8m). This changes how our FFP 'windows' look going forward.

- I've raised our assumed wage budget to £23m, as £20m before was probably too low.

- Lowered my matchday revenue assumptions a touch, inched up broadcast assuming a growing EFL TV deal/shares from the PL, made commercial a bit more optimistic, and raised amortisation costs a bit (haven't bothered to try to guess the exact amortisation calcs for Gallagher, Brereton, Armstrong, Pickering, Kaminski, Edun, etc.)

Suggests we were definitely in breach of FFP last year, but the leniancy to expand it to 4 years means we'll just shave under a 4-year FFP limit.

The estimated (FFP) £6m loss this year then means we roughly have £5-6m of room to play with over the next few years, but worth noting these projections have us back on the edge of £13m losses per year, ie, on the edge of FFP.

Possibly suggests we'd be in breach of the 4-year FFP if we decided to spend a bunch in January, but a) I'd guess the EFL deemed our long-term 'sustainability' okay given we're roughly within £13m/year going forward (and presumably we had to admit to the EFL we were selling Armstrong), hence why we're apparently under no transfer restrictions now; b) any new transfers would be amortised, so, say, a ~£4m purchase would only count for ~1m this year (plus wages).

All of course subject to any player sales we resort to in January (Nyambe, Rothwell, Lenihan...)

Edited December 7, 2021 by RoverCanada

[Bigdoggsteel]

I wonder is signing Van Hecke on a permanent realistic 

[Spartakfenni]

18 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I wonder is signing Van Hecke on a permanent realistic 

Simple word no. Brighton signed him over 12 months ago and sent him out for a seasons experience in the Dutch premier league. He played most matches and has come here for the more physical aspects of the English game. He destined to replace that donkey Duffy. I’d assume you’d want him back!

[Admiral Nelsen]

24 minutes ago, Spartakfenni said:

Simple word no. Brighton signed him over 12 months ago and sent him out for a seasons experience in the Dutch premier league. He played most matches and has come here for the more physical aspects of the English game. He destined to replace that donkey Duffy. I’d assume you’d want him back!

 

Not so sure. I'm not confident that he'll be available but they already have four senior centre backs at a good age. Apparently Ostigard at Stoke is actually their player too, so he's got a fight on his hands if he wants to play there in the next couple of years. 

 

This doesn't mean that we'll be able to get him on the cheap, obviously, but I think both him & Khadra might end up being realistic signings in a way that other loans we've had in the last couple of years haven't been. 

[Spartakfenni]

31 minutes ago, Admiral Nelsen said:

 

Not so sure. I'm not confident that he'll be available but they already have four senior centre backs at a good age. Apparently Ostigard at Stoke is actually their player too, so he's got a fight on his hands if he wants to play there in the next couple of years. 

 

This doesn't mean that we'll be able to get him on the cheap, obviously, but I think both him & Khadra might end up being realistic signings in a way that other loans we've had in the last couple of years haven't been. 

 Can’t agree Dunk, Duffy and Burn are 29/30, Duffy couldn’t get into a shit Celtic side last season. He’s just average this season (Dunk is by far the best), and will be found out. Obviously Ostigard and Van Hecke are being groomed to replace them. They plan ahead, not like maggot and Mowbray. Khadra would have been a first team player for them now if it wasn’t for a serious injury last season. This again is a no chance deal, enjoy him for this season as he won’t be here next season.

[Admiral Nelsen]

18 minutes ago, Spartakfenni said:

 Can’t agree Dunk, Duffy and Burn are 29/30, Duffy couldn’t get into a shit Celtic side last season. He’s just average this season (Dunk is by far the best), and will be found out. Obviously Ostigard and Van Hecke are being groomed to replace them. They plan ahead, not like maggot and Mowbray. Khadra would have been a first team player for them now if it wasn’t for a serious injury last season. This again is a no chance deal, enjoy him for this season as he won’t be here next season.

 

There's Webster there too, who they paid decent money for and is only mid 20s. I think they're well stocked for the next couple of seasons anyway. You could well be right, but it's not obvious to me that Van Hecke is being earmarked as a likely starter for them in the near(ish) future.

They'll probably still want to keep him to see how he develops all the same, but at least it seems feasible that they'd let him go in a way that was never on the cards with a Tosin or Harwood-Bellis.

[JacknOry]

3 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I wonder is signing Van Hecke on a permanent realistic 

I would like it to be, and perhaps he was a City or Liverpool loanee, we might have a chance. It's a double-edge sword. The better he does here, the more likely they will keep him. They obviously have a plan for him. He is still young, went out last season at Heerenveen and did very well, and is now doing well (Fulham aside) for us. 

[Ulrich]

I don't see us getting Van Hecke on perm, yes it would be nice but I doubt we could afford him. He cost 1.8m, he's done well since then so they will want more, surely, also what would his wages be? Brighton will be paying far more than we do. It would be good to get him here but I think he's beyond our financial means, unfortunately.

[JacknOry]

Still baffles me that we're loaning teenagers from 'Brighton'. I mean wtf, they are in the PL and can hoover up young talent and loan them out to 'Small' clubs like Blackburn. 

[RevidgeBlue]

10 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I wonder is signing Van Hecke on a permanent realistic 

Personally, I don't think he is as good as as Wharton and I'd rather give another of our youngsters, (Carter) the chance rather than push him out of the picture by signing Van Hecke.

[Paul Mani]

5 hours ago, RevidgeBlue said:

Personally, I don't think he is as good as as Wharton and I'd rather give another of our youngsters, (Carter) the chance rather than push him out of the picture by signing Van Hecke.

I suppose it depends on how good he is and how little we can get him for but I’d tend to agree with you.
 

Mainly because I think you can find a lot of decent cb’s out there and there’s not as good a resale value on cb’s unless you go up…whereas if you buy a £5m forward there’s a much bigger chance of a high multiple sale.

[chaddyrovers]

23 hours ago, JHRover said:

I find it interesting how the Armstrong sale and substantial windfall is now just history. No mention of that cash or any reinvestment of it. Gone, Done, Dusted, forgotten about, move on.

You know exactly where the Armstrong money has gone to meet the FFP rules and the club isn't in embargo this season, How many more times does this need saying?

23 hours ago, JHRover said:

My view is that there has been radio silence from the top owners in India - Mr and Mrs Desai - for at least a year now. Because of that Mowbray has been unable to persuade them to release funds or issue new contracts and I think there is plenty of evidence for that in the state of the contracts and recruitment which has been extremely short term and low cost since summer 2020.

He was backed last season. He signed 11 players last season. He has been more than financial backed in the past 3 seasons. 

on the contract issues, Rovers have offered new improved contracts but as Waggott said in the fans forum that's their player agents have advised them not to sign at this stage. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

9 hours ago, RevidgeBlue said:

Personally, I don't think he is as good as as Wharton and I'd rather give another of our youngsters, (Carter) the chance rather than push him out of the picture by signing Van Hecke.

I think Van Hecke is a better player than Carter, so I would prefer him. 

It's great to have local players in the team, but its not the league of gentlemen local shop, for local people, it's the Championship 

[Spartakfenni]

3 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I think Van Hecke is a better player than Carter, so I would prefer him. 

It's great to have local players in the team, but its not the league of gentlemen local shop, for local people, it's the Championship 

Carter is as good as Van Hecke and should go out on loan to hopefully another championship side like Preston would be ideal.

[Bigdoggsteel]

On 06/12/2021 at 10:01, JHRover said:

Reading Mowbray's comments in the press I would tend to agree with the theory that he is getting his views out into the public domain, putting a bit of pressure on the owners and trying to avoid any finger of blame in his direction if the owners start playing silly beggars again in January.

I find it interesting how the Armstrong sale and substantial windfall is now just history. No mention of that cash or any reinvestment of it. Gone, Done, Dusted, forgotten about, move on.

I think Mowbray is expecting similar in the event of any sales - the money will just go and he will have to try and pull some more rabbits out of the loan market hat. Only so long that can go on.

Some might say this is fair enough, the owners have spent heavily in the last few years and are entitled to claw some money back. Of course they are. But by the same measure you would expect billionaires who are determined to get back to the PL to sense an opportunity this season and to show the money for some key additions rather than sales.

You would also expect them to push the boat out to keep Brereton under long term contract rather than hide behind self-imposed wage structures. It is simple - if the cost of paying him more for the next couple of years is less than the amount it puts on his transfer value then it is worth doing. If a new contract costs the club a few million but adds £10 million to his transfer value it is worth it.

My view is that there has been radio silence from the top owners in India - Mr and Mrs Desai - for at least a year now. Because of that Mowbray has been unable to persuade them to release funds or issue new contracts and I think there is plenty of evidence for that in the state of the contracts and recruitment which has been extremely short term and low cost since summer 2020.

 

Ya, absolute credit to Mowbray for managing to mold such a team operating under those conditions- right? 

[joey_big_nose]

16 hours ago, JacknOry said:

I would like it to be, and perhaps he was a City or Liverpool loanee, we might have a chance. It's a double-edge sword. The better he does here, the more likely they will keep him. They obviously have a plan for him. He is still young, went out last season at Heerenveen and did very well, and is now doing well (Fulham aside) for us. 

Yeah I can't really see why Brighton would let us have Khadra or Van Hecke at an amount we can afford. Also doubt their wages would fit our structure either.

We'll just look for new season long loans next season. It's been a very long time since weve signed a loan from the Prem. Gestede? Sad fact is you get paid q a lot more to sit on the bench in the Prem than play in the Championship.

[rog of the rovers]

I'd guess Poveda and Clarkson may go back from their loans to free up some spaces?

Another striker, full back and central midfielder would be on my list.

Dack to come back also. Could really do with Rankin-Costello staying fit as another fullback option.

[Uddersfelt Blue]

17 hours ago, JacknOry said:

Still baffles me that we're loaning teenagers from 'Brighton'. I mean wtf, they are in the PL and can hoover up young talent and loan them out to 'Small' clubs like Blackburn. 

You hit the nail on the head! Brighton are in the Premier League hence they can afford to attract the best young players from around the world. Unfortunately as a Championship club we can’t compete in the same markets. I don’t mind loaning their players if it helps us progress. 
 

 

[JacknOry]

6 minutes ago, Uddersfelt Blue said:

You hit the nail on the head! Brighton are in the Premier League hence they can afford to attract the best young players from around the world. Unfortunately as a Championship club we can’t compete in the same markets. I don’t mind loaning their players if it helps us progress. 
 

 

I just mean, its Brighton! I cant get my head around such a small club being in the PL.

[DavidMailsTightPerm]

On 06/12/2021 at 10:54, RoverCanada said:

Thought I'd briefly revisit these calculations I did about a month ago. White cells are actuals, yellow are my guesses.

Compared to last time:

- I've shifted the STC sale profit to 2020-21 rather than 2021-22, as looks like that was squeezed in at the end of the 2020-21 fiscal year due to changing EFL rules (and I've lowered the assumed profit to £8m). This changes how our FFP 'windows' look going forward.

- I've raised our assumed wage budget to £23m, as £20m before was probably too low.

- Lowered my matchday revenue assumptions a touch, inched up broadcast assuming a growing EFL TV deal/shares from the PL, made commercial a bit more optimistic, and raised amortisation costs a bit (haven't bothered to try to guess the exact amortisation calcs for Gallagher, Brereton, Armstrong, Pickering, Kaminski, Edun, etc.)

Suggests we were definitely in breach of FFP last year, but the leniancy to expand it to 4 years means we'll just shave under a 4-year FFP limit.

The estimated (FFP) £6m loss this year then means we roughly have £5-6m of room to play with over the next few years, but worth noting these projections have us back on the edge of £13m losses per year, ie, on the edge of FFP.

Possibly suggests we'd be in breach of the 4-year FFP if we decided to spend a bunch in January, but a) I'd guess the EFL deemed our long-term 'sustainability' okay given we're roughly within £13m/year going forward (and presumably we had to admit to the EFL we were selling Armstrong), hence why we're apparently under no transfer restrictions now; b) any new transfers would be amortised, so, say, a ~£4m purchase would only count for ~1m this year (plus wages).

All of course subject to any player sales we resort to in January (Nyambe, Rothwell, Lenihan...)

This include the academy "sale"

[roversfan99]

On 06/12/2021 at 10:01, JHRover said:

Reading Mowbray's comments in the press I would tend to agree with the theory that he is getting his views out into the public domain, putting a bit of pressure on the owners and trying to avoid any finger of blame in his direction if the owners start playing silly beggars again in January.

I find it interesting how the Armstrong sale and substantial windfall is now just history. No mention of that cash or any reinvestment of it. Gone, Done, Dusted, forgotten about, move on.

I think Mowbray is expecting similar in the event of any sales - the money will just go and he will have to try and pull some more rabbits out of the loan market hat. Only so long that can go on.

Some might say this is fair enough, the owners have spent heavily in the last few years and are entitled to claw some money back. Of course they are. But by the same measure you would expect billionaires who are determined to get back to the PL to sense an opportunity this season and to show the money for some key additions rather than sales.

You would also expect them to push the boat out to keep Brereton under long term contract rather than hide behind self-imposed wage structures. It is simple - if the cost of paying him more for the next couple of years is less than the amount it puts on his transfer value then it is worth doing. If a new contract costs the club a few million but adds £10 million to his transfer value it is worth it.

My view is that there has been radio silence from the top owners in India - Mr and Mrs Desai - for at least a year now. Because of that Mowbray has been unable to persuade them to release funds or issue new contracts and I think there is plenty of evidence for that in the state of the contracts and recruitment which has been extremely short term and low cost since summer 2020.

 

Venkys are clearly going through one of their typical particular disinterested phases, you can tell as to the dysfunctional, ignorant way in which they run a football club from things such as if Brereton does go, Mowbray hasn't the foggiest whether he would get any of the money, so the silence from India is actively impeding any ability to plan forward.

The line repeatedly trotted out is the struggles of the pandemic in India, it seems that they are unwilling to invest at the moment which ties in to what you say about the Armstrong money vanishing. FFP has only been mentioned on here, the training ground trick prevented any embargo in the year ended June 2021, Armstrong's sale is in June 2022 so in theory, surely there is a bit of wiggle room if as defendants of Venkys like to claim, that FFP is the sole issue. We wanted Maja apparently although on loan, is there going to be any permanent additions in January? 

The idea that Venkys have spent heavily has always been a bit disingenuous to me, I don't think that merely covering losses through issuing of share capital can be deemed as spending heavily, you could perhaps point to the signings of Brereton and Gallagher maybe but its hardly masses of money especially when you factor in that the Armstrong (and Raya) sales basically cover all of that.

You are correct on the issue of new contracts, being so strict on a self imposed wage ceiling is somewhat of a short term approach that long term will see assets leave for a fraction of their cost if not for nothing at all. But equally, a club with a shred of ambition wouldn't encourage a fire sale whilst 4th in the league.

[chaddyrovers]

24 minutes ago, rog of the rovers said:

I'd guess Poveda and Clarkson may go back from their loans to free up some spaces?

Another striker, full back and central midfielder would be on my list.

Dack to come back also. Could really do with Rankin-Costello staying fit as another fullback option.

Well we have 1 free spot within the 25 man squad currently so if Poveda and Clarkson go back to their Parent club then that's would spots up unless we sign players under the age of 21 permanently

[roversfan99]

I don't think that registration is a concern. Don't we have Magloire in there as well who could easily be ditched, and I doubt we are going to sign 3 or 4 to begin with.

[Guest]

A proper right wing back could be huge for us, Nyambe is good defensively 1v1 but offensively pretty awful.