Where will we finish?

[islander200]

12 minutes ago, Geoff66 said:

We have taken about 11pts from the 54 so far from the top 6 clubs, from those statistics it could be touch and go if we make the play offs with the pack closing in.

54?.We have played Fulham  once and lost, played Bournemouth away and won, played QPR away lost, played Huddersfield home and away lost away and drew at home and Boro we have played twice drawing away and winning at home.

Just below the top 6 forest we have played twice 1 win each.Sheffield United we have played once and we won.

Prior to the Swansea game we had the best record in the the league against bottom half teams, after Fulham we play one team in the top 10 in our final ten games.

We look a bit stale at the minute but there were some signs last night that we were starting to click a little with the attacking side of our game. 

 

[superniko]

5th for me

Sheff Utd and Boro to finish above us

Either QPR or Forest to take 6th.

 

[jim mk2]

8th

Squad is already being exposed as too thin, lacking in quality in midfield and up front.

Injuries and suspensions and loss of form will come into play

 

[garnersfags]

18 hours ago, RevidgeBlue said:

On current form outside play offs.

 

That's not the question, tho, is it?

We will have a patch of better results, just depends how long that patch is....

[garnersfags]

4 hours ago, islander200 said:

3rd or 4th.

We are struggling at the minute but the last 10 games on paper looks a decent run in.

The other teams in the play offs and knocking on the door of the playoffs have to play against eachother.

I fancy us to pick up 3 points v Millwall then 3 tough games Sheffield United, QPR and Fulham after that with the exception of Bournemouth we don't play anymore playoff contenders.

 

This is where I was until the last 2 weeks.

I'm still spiritually optimistic, but as I've repeated endlessly since the Hull selection, you just can't see where it will come from. 

Logically, there are too many forward players drastically out of form all at once for us to get back on form anytime soon.

Millwall is absolutely pivotal to our chances of recovery, and I just hope we don't try 'too' hard, which has been our downfall recently. 

Millwall 2 nil up against QPR. Come on!!!

[Norn Iron Rover]

I think every team in this league (bar maybe Fulham) are going to have a bad run of form/results. Hopefully this is ours. I agree our run in looks good on paper so hopefully we pick up as many points as possible in this next batch of tough games (draws would be excellent) and then get another good run going  in time for the playoffs.  

I reckon we'll finish 4th.

[SuperBrfc]

3rd for me. We have a solid defensive base which hasn't been the case in recent years. If we can pinch the lead in games I am confident we can see a lot of them out.

Teams around us have to face each other, whilst some are bound to have a dip at some point too. Good to see QPR having a wobble! I think (and hope) we are about to snap out of our mini dip in form. It would not surprise me to see us beat Millwall, QPR and Sheff United within the next few games.

[neophox]

Coventry and QPR lost and Sheff U draw. Good evening.

[Ianrally]

That’s it in a nutshell. We keep having to look at everybody else’s results which is not promotion material.

8th place for us come May. How I hope I’m totally wrong. 

[islander200]

A loss for QPR and a draw at home to Hull for Sheffield United.

QPR still have to play us away, Forest, Fulham , Sheffield United twice, Stoke away

If we can beat Millwall and beat QPR the week after I don't see them finishing above us.I don't see QPR beating us at Ewood but admittedly our attack and Rothwell need to move up a gear

What result are ye guys hoping for on Friday night? Bournemouth v Forest?

A Forest win gets us closer to 2nd spot or a Bournemouth win gives a bit more comfort in the top 6?

 

[DavidMailsTightPerm]

29 minutes ago, Ianrally said:

That’s it in a nutshell. We keep having to look at everybody else’s results which is not promotion material.

8th place for us come May. How I hope I’m totally wrong. 

I disagree - I think tonight's results show that (outside Fulham) anyone can beat anyone - so our recent poor run has to be viewed in that context. Personally I have no idea where we will end up - there are so many permutations, from suspensions and injuries (both ours and the opposition),the order of fixtures, poor standard of refereeing in the division etc. etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see us in the top 2 (though a lot of things would need to go our way) or as you say outside the top 6.

[rovers11]

I think 5th place is where we'll finish. We gave ourselves a good points buffer and our form surely has to turn at some point. Plus the teams below us are not that great either.

Forest or Middlesbrough will go up via the playoffs I reckon. They have the best managers. I wouldn't rule us out though as we are a very strange team that has the ability to surprise. 

[Bbrovers2288]

2 hours ago, rovers11 said:

I think 5th place is where we'll finish. We gave ourselves a good points buffer and our form surely has to turn at some point. Plus the teams below us are not that great either.

Forest or Middlesbrough will go up via the playoffs I reckon. They have the best managers. I wouldn't rule us out though as we are a very strange team that has the ability to surprise. 

Said a few weeks ago that’s it’s boro and forest that I fear 

[bluebruce]

3 hours ago, Ianrally said:

That’s it in a nutshell. We keep having to look at everybody else’s results which is not promotion material.

8th place for us come May. How I hope I’m totally wrong. 

I doubt there is anyone below Fulham who isn't anxiously checking the results of other sides around them. Even some Fulham fans will be doing.

[Iceman]

Not bringing in another striker (and no Markanday is not a striker) in January, is what could make or break us re the playoffs. 

All our focus should have been on finding one or 2 strikers, instead we once again filled areas that I don't necessarily believe needed filling. Maybe a backup for Nyambe was okay, but there is no goals in this team. 

If we do get into the playoffs, I would hope that Dack is back before that, and firing, because teams have figured us out. So I'm going to say we will finish either 6th, or we will drop out and be between 7th and 10th 

[Iceman]

3 hours ago, Bbrovers2288 said:

Said a few weeks ago that’s it’s boro and forest that I fear 

Even if it's Boro and Forest you fear, right now Huddersfield, QPR and us are falling over each other. So 2 of QPR, Huddersfield, and us could be overtaken. 

Bournemouth are hit and miss, but if they pick up form, then it looks like it's them and Fulham for auto places..

We just have to pick up points, doesn't matter now if they are wins or draws, but we just need to be in with a chance at the end. 

[RoversTilliDie]

11 hours ago, islander200 said:

54?.We have played Fulham  once and lost, played Bournemouth away and won, played QPR away lost, played Huddersfield home and away lost away and drew at home and Boro we have played twice drawing away and winning at home.

Just below the top 6 forest we have played twice 1 win each.Sheffield United we have played once and we won.

Prior to the Swansea game we had the best record in the the league against bottom half teams, after Fulham we play one team in the top 10 in our final ten games.

We look a bit stale at the minute but there were some signs last night that we were starting to click a little with the attacking side of our game. 

 

And Dack getting nearer to returning.

[BigUts]

4th. I'm confident of 7 points over the next 10 days which I think will really define our season. We seemed to have a turning point during the game against West Brom and key players like Buckley suddenly seemed to grow in confidence after looking so lacklustre for the first half and the previous 5 games.

Keep the faith and keep believing. Much of our positive run post Fulham was us dragging the team on and that attitude will help the players keep believing too.

[Danny O.Brien]

If we can keep doing well at home and dack brings a few goals, then just inside the play offs. Which at the beginning of the season none of us would of expected. Then it's a lottery from there.

[Displaced Rover]

I think we might just sneak in the play offs but it will be close. Looking at the remaining fixtures, I see an absolute maximum of 7 wins (if we start scoring again). Sprinkle in a few draws and I think best case we end on 78/79 points, which would be enough. As I say though, I think that's best case and more realistically we're potentially fairly early in a classic Mowbray death spiral.

[LeftWinger]

13 hours ago, Paul Mellelieu said:

For once I think Mercer is right.  We don't concede many, so always have a chance.  6th.

Unfortunately at the moment we aren't conceding many, but aren't scoring any!

[OsloRover]

What, no option for 1st? 😉

I think we will end up 4th, maybe 5th. Which will mean a very successful season.

We will return to some kind of form and some of the other sides around us will trip up.

[Guest]

So you always see those "super computer" predictions, thought we'd make one of our own. Worked with a few people to produce a "super computer" for our next 6 fixtures. It does just seem to bear out what most of us would predict anyway, but I think it's interesting anyway! 

If correct, we'd walk away with 10pts from those 6 games. A points to games ratio that would see us comfortably in the Top 6 if replicated til the end of the season. 

Fulham prediction makes for intimidating reading, but there's enough there to give us hope. Millwall are terrible away from home, they like a 0-0 and for Rovers that games definitely going to be about if we can open the scoring in the first half. QPR down as a draw, with a slight swing towards Rovers as the home team. The back to back Bristol City & Derby County home games are going to be where the season could be won and lost. A huge chance statistically to pick up 6 points. 

Anyway, take from this what you will. It's not gospel, it's far less complicated & detailed than the "super computers" you see used by the big media outlets, but it's worth sharing nonetheless.

	Head2Head (5 Games) - 10%	Form - 25%	Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35%	Previous Result 21/22 - 20%	xG Differential - 10%		Outcome
Millwall (H)	Blackburn	Millwall	2.36 | 0.92	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57		Blackburn	70%	3
Sheff Utd (A)	Sheff Utd	Sheff Utd	1.66 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24		Sheff Utd	60%	0
QPR (H)	Blackburn	QPR	2.36 | 1.64	QPR	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31		Draw	90%	1
Fulham (A)	Fulham	Fulham	2.35 | 1.31	Fulham	(+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24		Fulham	99%	0
Bristol City (H)	Blackburn	Blackburn	2.36 | 0.87	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70		Blackburn	80%	3
Derby County (H)	Derby County	Equal	2.36 | 0.75	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50		Blackburn	55%	3

PPG: Points Per Game
xG Differential: A team expected goals vs their expected goals against across the season (at home or away depending on fixture)
Form: Form taken on PPG over 6 fixtures

[Bigdoggsteel]

I think we will beat QPR and Fulham 

Probably draw or lose against one of bristol and derby then....

[Trinidad Rover]

17 minutes ago, JoeH said:

 

So you always see those "super computer" predictions, thought we'd make one of our own. Worked with a few people to produce a "super computer" for our next 6 fixtures. It does just seem to bear out what most of us would predict anyway, but I think it's interesting anyway! 

If correct, we'd walk away with 10pts from those 6 games. A points to games ratio that would see us comfortably in the Top 6 if replicated til the end of the season. 

Fulham prediction makes for intimidating reading, but there's enough there to give us hope. Millwall are terrible away from home, they like a 0-0 and for Rovers that games definitely going to be about if we can open the scoring in the first half. QPR down as a draw, with a slight swing towards Rovers as the home team. The back to back Bristol City & Derby County home games are going to be where the season could be won and lost. A huge chance statistically to pick up 6 points. 

Anyway, take from this what you will. It's not gospel, it's far less complicated & detailed than the "super computers" you see used by the big media outlets, but it's worth sharing nonetheless.

	Head2Head (5 Games) - 10%	Form - 25%	Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35%	Previous Result 21/22 - 20%	xG Differential - 10%		Outcome
Millwall (H)	Blackburn	Millwall	2.36 | 0.92	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57		Blackburn	70%	3
Sheff Utd (A)	Sheff Utd	Sheff Utd	1.66 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24		Sheff Utd	60%	0
QPR (H)	Blackburn	QPR	2.36 | 1.64	QPR	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31		Draw	90%	1
Fulham (A)	Fulham	Fulham	2.35 | 1.31	Fulham	(+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24		Fulham	99%	0
Bristol City (H)	Blackburn	Blackburn	2.36 | 0.87	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70		Blackburn	80%	3
Derby County (H)	Derby County	Equal	2.36 | 0.75	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50		Blackburn	55%	3

PPG: Points Per Game
xG Differential: A team expected goals vs their expected goals against across the season (at home or away depending on fixture)
Form: Form taken on PPG over 6 fixtures

Nice work!