Guest Posted February 16, 2022 Posted February 16, 2022 The whole thing mapped out, which is even more pinch of salt kind of guesswork because form will have changed by then, looks like this: Head2Head (5 Games) - 10% Form - 25% Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35% Previous Result 21/22 - 20% xG Differential - 10% Outcome Millwall (H) Blackburn Millwall 2.36 | 0.92 Draw (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57 Blackburn 70% 3 Sheff Utd (A) Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 1.66 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24 Sheff Utd 60% 0 QPR (H) Blackburn QPR 2.36 | 1.64 QPR (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31 Blackburn 10% 1 Fulham (A) Fulham Fulham 2.35 | 1.31 Fulham (+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24 Fulham 99% 0 Bristol City (H) Blackburn Blackburn 2.36 | 0.87 Draw (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70 Blackburn 80% 3 Derby County (H) Derby County Equal 2.36 | 0.75 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50 Blackburn 55% 3 Reading (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.00 | 1.31 Blackburn (-) 0.61 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 99% 3 Coventry City (A) Blackburn Coventry 1.80 | 1.31 Draw (+) 0.67 | (-) 0.24 Coventry 60% 0 Blackpool (H) Blackburn Blackpool 2.36 | 1.07 Blackpool (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.23 Blackburn 10% 1 Peterborough United (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.14 | 1.31 Blackburn (-) 0.27 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 80% 3 Stoke City (H) Blackburn Stoke City 2.36 | 1.26 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.14 Blackburn 50% 3 Preston (A) Equal Preston 1.53 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.09 | (-) 0.24 Preston 50% 0 Bournemouth (H) Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.36 | 1.93 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (+) 0.40 Blackburn 20% 1 Birmingham (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.37 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.24 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 10% 1 Points 22 Final Total 76 We'd finish on 76 points. More than enough for 6th I reckon. Quote
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Bigdoggsteel Posted February 16, 2022 Posted February 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, JoeH said: The whole thing mapped out, which is even more pinch of salt kind of guesswork because form will have changed by then, looks like this: Head2Head (5 Games) - 10% Form - 25% Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35% Previous Result 21/22 - 20% xG Differential - 10% Outcome Millwall (H) Blackburn Millwall 2.36 | 0.92 Draw (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57 Blackburn 70% 3 Sheff Utd (A) Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 1.66 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24 Sheff Utd 60% 0 QPR (H) Blackburn QPR 2.36 | 1.64 QPR (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31 Blackburn 10% 1 Fulham (A) Fulham Fulham 2.35 | 1.31 Fulham (+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24 Fulham 99% 0 Bristol City (H) Blackburn Blackburn 2.36 | 0.87 Draw (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70 Blackburn 80% 3 Derby County (H) Derby County Equal 2.36 | 0.75 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50 Blackburn 55% 3 Reading (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.00 | 1.31 Blackburn (-) 0.61 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 99% 3 Coventry City (A) Blackburn Coventry 1.80 | 1.31 Draw (+) 0.67 | (-) 0.24 Coventry 60% 0 Blackpool (H) Blackburn Blackpool 2.36 | 1.07 Blackpool (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.23 Blackburn 10% 1 Peterborough United (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.14 | 1.31 Blackburn (-) 0.27 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 80% 3 Stoke City (H) Blackburn Stoke City 2.36 | 1.26 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.14 Blackburn 50% 3 Preston (A) Equal Preston 1.53 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.09 | (-) 0.24 Preston 50% 0 Bournemouth (H) Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.36 | 1.93 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (+) 0.40 Blackburn 20% 1 Birmingham (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.37 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.24 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 10% 1 Points 22 Final Total 76 We'd finish on 76 points. More than enough for 6th I reckon. Interesting experiment , but you could do it hundreds, if not thousands of ways. The mantra for us is one game at a time. Milwall next Quote
USABlue Posted February 16, 2022 Posted February 16, 2022 I see us finishing 8th to 10th. Mowbary leaning back in his easy chair, cup of tea and lemon drizzle on hand, feeling pretty good about himself. Wondering how the new contract is gonna look Quote
Backroom DE. Posted February 16, 2022 Backroom Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Displaced Rover said: more realistically we're potentially fairly early in a classic Mowbray death spiral. Considering how poorly we've been playing since 2022 started I would hope we're at the end of a DS rather than the beginning of one. Just picked up more points than we usually would thanks to a much steadier defence than previous seasons. 2 Quote
Bigdoggsteel Posted February 16, 2022 Posted February 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, USABlue said: I see us finishing 8th to 10th. Mowbary leaning back in his easy chair, cup of tea and lemon drizzle on hand, feeling pretty good about himself. Wondering how the new contract is gonna look Have you watched any interviews with him recently? If you did, I don't see how you could think he would be happy if we don't make the play offs. Quote
Hasta Posted February 16, 2022 Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said: Have you watched any interviews with him recently? If you did, I don't see how you could think he would be happy if we don't make the play offs. Agree. He also looks more agitated and animated during games now than at any point in the last 3 years. 4 Quote
TruRover Posted February 16, 2022 Posted February 16, 2022 Unfortunately I don’t think we have the depth to catch Bournemouth now. The top 2 look fairly comfortable now and have squads far superior to anyone else isnt the league so I can’t see to much drama there. I wouldn’t worry about us for the playoffs - I think we’ll get there fairly comfortably without putting any real pressure on Bournemouth or Fulham. I say this because our goal scoring issues won’t last - for the past couple of seasons we have shown an ability to score a fair few goals, and have players across the team who can contribute. On top of that I firmly believe we have the best defence in the league in our first choice back 5, which imo makes us a really strong contender for those playoff matches when they eventually come around. What I would say is we need to overcome our weaknesses when we go behind. It’s been an issue which I’ve picked up on from the past few seasons and that truly lies at the door of TM - for all his success this season he has constantly failed to address this. A win against Millwall is essential to get confidence up heading into 2 important fixtures which I’m hoping for 4 points from. Fulham is a free hit. come on your rovers! 1 Quote
Nuttall is lost Posted February 16, 2022 Author Posted February 16, 2022 If we do get promoted I would fear its too soon as the squad would need serious serious investment in order to have a chance of staying up. I think they would go straight back down. Quote
Wegerleswiggle Posted February 16, 2022 Posted February 16, 2022 12 hours ago, JoeH said: The whole thing mapped out, which is even more pinch of salt kind of guesswork because form will have changed by then, looks like this: Head2Head (5 Games) - 10% Form - 25% Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35% Previous Result 21/22 - 20% xG Differential - 10% Outcome Millwall (H) Blackburn Millwall 2.36 | 0.92 Draw (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57 Blackburn 70% 3 Sheff Utd (A) Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 1.66 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24 Sheff Utd 60% 0 QPR (H) Blackburn QPR 2.36 | 1.64 QPR (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31 Blackburn 10% 1 Fulham (A) Fulham Fulham 2.35 | 1.31 Fulham (+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24 Fulham 99% 0 Bristol City (H) Blackburn Blackburn 2.36 | 0.87 Draw (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70 Blackburn 80% 3 Derby County (H) Derby County Equal 2.36 | 0.75 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50 Blackburn 55% 3 Reading (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.00 | 1.31 Blackburn (-) 0.61 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 99% 3 Coventry City (A) Blackburn Coventry 1.80 | 1.31 Draw (+) 0.67 | (-) 0.24 Coventry 60% 0 Blackpool (H) Blackburn Blackpool 2.36 | 1.07 Blackpool (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.23 Blackburn 10% 1 Peterborough United (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.14 | 1.31 Blackburn (-) 0.27 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 80% 3 Stoke City (H) Blackburn Stoke City 2.36 | 1.26 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (-) 0.14 Blackburn 50% 3 Preston (A) Equal Preston 1.53 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.09 | (-) 0.24 Preston 50% 0 Bournemouth (H) Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.36 | 1.93 Blackburn (+) 0.39 | (+) 0.40 Blackburn 20% 1 Birmingham (A) Blackburn Blackburn 1.37 | 1.31 Blackburn (+) 0.24 | (-) 0.24 Blackburn 10% 1 Points 22 Final Total 76 We'd finish on 76 points. More than enough for 6th I reckon. I'm gonna stick my neck out and say we finish on 82 points in 4th. Quote
RoverInverness Posted February 17, 2022 Posted February 17, 2022 7 hours ago, Nuttall is lost said: If we do get promoted I would fear its too soon as the squad would need serious serious investment in order to have a chance of staying up. I think they would go straight back down. Too soon to clear off the debt of the past ten years and to come back down with parachute payments to enable us to compete with the bigger spending clubs in the championship? I don’t think so. Our financial situation is getting more perilous every season. Is it too soon to keep the wolves away from the door for another ten years? Of course not. 4 Quote
joey_big_nose Posted February 17, 2022 Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, RoverInverness said: Too soon to clear off the debt of the past ten years and to come back down with parachute payments to enable us to compete with the bigger spending clubs in the championship? I don’t think so. Our financial situation is getting more perilous every season. Is it too soon to keep the wolves away from the door for another ten years? Of course not. Yes - if we go up we will in all likelihood get absolutely battered. Only players we have imo who are likely to be able to step up to acceptable Prem standard are Kaminski, Wharton, Lenihan. We've got a bunch who might make it - Travis, Buckley, Rothwell, Brereton, Dack - but I am not that confident about any them. So we'd probably go up, get absolutely minced, come back down, but at least have some money to spend and a couple more years of experience in our young players. That said some teams have gone up and looked totally insufficient on paper and stayed up the first season up (eg. Huddersfield), and some clubs have gone up and had a great squad and got sent straight back down (Fulham recently spring to mind). So it's not a foregone conclusion. But it will be a very difficult season I am sure. 1 Quote
TheRevAshton Posted February 17, 2022 Posted February 17, 2022 (edited) It's realistic to predict that we'd come straight back down, but promotion would be absolutely transformational for the club regardless. The huge cash injection would help us pay off debts, offer long contracts to our current players and make some quality signings. The value of our young promotion winners would skyrocket too - stick them on long contracts and we could absolutely rinse anyone who moves in for them. The gate would also increase substantially, every match i'd expect a minimum of 20k home fans at Ewood in the Prem. Then if we go back down: Strong championship squad, parachute payments, relief from debts and confidence around the club. I'll take it! Edited February 17, 2022 by TheRevAshton 2 Quote
JC4LAB Posted February 17, 2022 Posted February 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, TheRevAshton said: It's realistic to predict that we'd come straight back down, but promotion would be absolutely transformational for the club regardless. The huge cash injection would help us pay off debts, offer long contracts to our current players and make some quality signings. The value of our young promotion winners would skyrocket too - stick them on long contracts and we could absolutely rinse anyone who moves in for them. The gate would also increase substantially, every match i'd expect a minimum of 20k home fans at Ewood in the Prem. Then if we go back down: Strong championship squad, parachute payments, relief from debts and confidence around the club. I'll take it! A year in the sun would be very nice Quote
chaddyrovers Posted February 18, 2022 Posted February 18, 2022 We will finish top 6 and playoff place at least. But second place is there to get from us. Bournemouth have several games against teams already challenging for playoffs and top 2 including us. No way is the race over for second place and IMO we can grab it for sure Quote
Upside Down Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 I'm going to revise my prediction and sy we'll finish 13th. Quote
AllRoverAsia Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 I have changed to outside of playoffs. My prediction skills are on a par with Mercer so that's a positive Quote
lraC Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 Looking back on these predictions, we are far worse than most of us thought. Quote
Guest Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 Dack shoots, the keeper parries the ball right into the feet of our 'star' striker steaming in on goal and only 2 yards out.... who falls over, misses the ball with his feet, handballs it and sits haplessly inert whilst the defender makes a hurried and grateful clearance... Comedy at its finest... most painfully lifelike Just think, next season we will face the six fingered scourge without the core of this team, with a whole new bunch of faces from the bottom of the barrel, and with the gurning chump bigging Burnleh up as if they were Barcelona and we were Stan Ternent's Minis versus Ferraris track suited bastard side show. Makes you salivate at the prospect... pass me the jellies.. Quote
davulsukur Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 In mid Feb, Chaddy was confident that we would have 2nd place off Bournemouth but definitely finishing in the top 6 as a minimum. Fast forward to 20th March and by 14:30 today we are likely to have fallen out of the play places altogether. Quote
Moderation Lead K-Hod Posted March 20, 2022 Moderation Lead Posted March 20, 2022 If you lose to a team managed by Paul Ince, you don’t even deserve to be in the shake up. Still not over that tbh…. 1 Quote
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