v Reading (h) - 15/3/23, 7:45pm

[arbitro]

I thought I'd start a thread for Reading on Wednesday as there isn't one yet but surprisingly there is one with three pages for the game after this. I hope the players and staff aren't looking at that game before Wednesday.

I hope we batter them senseless for a few reasons. Our performance at their place this season was a shocker after an excellent start to the season as we made them look like world beaters. Then Paul Ince who is in the Coyle and Kean category for bullshit and bluff. And then Andy Carroll, a player who has moved around for millions, made millions and couldn't trap a bag of cement. A one trick pony. But mostly I want to beat them to get three points, rubbing their noses in it would be the icing on the cake.

Thomason has selection issues after the Stoke no show and also a couple of injuries. Hopefully we revert to the style of play that had us on a great run recently and we get back to playing to our strengths rather than allowing Reading to negate them.

[superniko]

                Kaminski

Brittain Carter Hyam Pickering

             JRC   Wharton

Thomas   Szmodics   Dolan

                 Brereton

3 points needed in this kind of home match

EDIT: realised I put Kaminski in here - prob through default past few years but I would actually still start Pears. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by superniko

[BankEnd Rover]

1 hour ago, superniko said:

                Kaminski

Brittain Carter Hyam Pickering

             JRC   Wharton

Thomas   Szmodics   Dolan

                 Brereton

3 points needed in this kind of home match

Ahh man would love Wharton in the middle but we know there’s a very slim chance of that happening. Morton no doubt will come back in.

[Sweaty Gussets]

 

1 hour ago, superniko said:

                Kaminski

Brittain Carter Hyam Pickering

             JRC   Wharton

Thomas   Szmodics   Dolan

                 Brereton

3 points needed in this kind of home match

One bad result and the captain has been axed!!

Edited March 12, 2023 by Sweaty Gussets

[superniko]

11 minutes ago, Sweaty Gussets said:

 

One bad result and the captain has been axed!!

Rotating, lots of matches in a short space of time and Reading at home is one we should dominate the ball more (Sheffield United away more suited to Travis)….but obviously it’s “AXED!!!!”

Edit: it’s also the most likely match we will win until the end of the season, so a good opportunity to see how JRC performs in the middle and also get Wharton some match fitness 

Edited March 12, 2023 by superniko

[Sweaty Gussets]

Reading's away form is atrocious. They've lost their last 5 without scoring. I'm amazed Ince is still the manager. 

I'd be equally amazed if they don't sack him soon. Probably Tuesday knowing our luck!

No idea who's fit but it may be worth freshening the team up. Maybe a good time to rest JRC, Dolan and Carter and bring in Brittain, BBD and S Wharton. With Buckley possibly out it will be a choice of Garrett or Morton. A Wharton still seems to be out of the picture. Maybe the 3 conceded goals gives JDT a chance to bring Kaminski back in? 

Best guess for the line-up:-

             Pears

Brittain  Hyam S Wharton Pickering

            Travis Morton

Thomas   Szmodics  BBD

                 Gally

I'm going 2-0 Rovers. BBD to bag a brace. 

ATT: 13,182       

 

[Sweaty Gussets]

10 minutes ago, superniko said:

Rotating, lots of matches in a short space of time and Reading at home is one we should dominate the ball more (Sheffield United away more suited to Travis)….but obviously it’s “AXED!!!!”

Edit: it’s also the most likely match we will win until the end of the season, so a good opportunity to see how JRC performs in the middle and also get Wharton some match fitness 

Not sure where JRC as a CM has come from? Not sure he's ever played there in the youths or as a first teamer. 

[roverandout]

Bounce back in style. In mercer-esque prediction. Rovers 5 reading 0. Sam Gallagher gets two goals. Dolan gets one. I haven't been drinki£%/^^%%&^

[J*B]

Minimum return with 10 games left for top-six is 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. 75 points.

Need to pick up a win here. 

Pears

JRC Carter Hyam Brittain 

Travis Buckley 

Thomas Szmodics Brereton 

Dolan 

 

[G Somerset Rover]

I’d suggest this is a must win if we have play-off aspirations. It would be fantastic to get one over on Ince as well. 

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, superniko said:

Rotating, lots of matches in a short space of time and Reading at home is one we should dominate the ball more (Sheffield United away more suited to Travis)….but obviously it’s “AXED!!!!”

Edit: it’s also the most likely match we will win until the end of the season, so a good opportunity to see how JRC performs in the middle and also get Wharton some match fitness 

10 games to go is never a good idea to ‘see how someone performs’ in a position they’ve NEVER played in! 

[Guest]

Reading vs Back 4 or Back 3/5 Opposition
(Championship games only, 2022/23)

Goals Scored vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 0.87
Goals Conceded vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 1.53

Away Goals Scored vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 0.71
Away Goals Conceded vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 2.57

Win Ratio vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 40%
Away Win Ratio vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 14.29%
(Struggle to break teams down who play a 3/5, especially away from home where they're less brave)

Goals Scored vs Back 4 Opposition: 1.04
Goals Conceded vs Back 4 Opposition: 1.26

Away Goals Scored vs Back 4 Opposition: 0.46
Away Goals Conceded vs Back 4 Opposition: 1.23
(Concede far fewer goals when away from home against Back 4 opposition)

Win Ratio vs Back 4 Opposition: 34.77%
Away Win Ratio vs Back 4 Opposition: 23.07%
(Away win % higher vs Back 4 opponents, than back 3/5)

For some this is boring statistical analysis and not worth much, but I've used this formula most games to say whether I think we should use a back 3 or a 4 against an opposition and it's almost always proved right. For me, the data says we go 3/5 at the back.

Wednesday I'd go with this:

Pears

Carter
Hyam
Phillips

Rankin-Costello
Travis
Garrett
Brittain

Szmodics

Gallagher
Brereton Díaz

Why? I think Garrett and Brittain changed it for us in that game. I think Callum Brittain adds something and needs to be in the team. "It's too defensive"... well maybe, but we're shipping goals and we conceded 3 vs Reading at their place. We need to build from the solid base of a clean sheet at home and try to make something happen at the other end. 

For me, Stoke's dismantling of Reading at the Bet365 is the best reference point for this plan of action:

Anyway, that's my 2p, with a littering of stats which I'm sure will rile some lol.

[Mattyblue]

To be fair how teams perform vs different formations is a much more tangible and useful stat than the BS that is xG…

Edited March 12, 2023 by Mattyblue

[RoversTilliDie]

One good point about the Stoke game, we did'nt lie down and die, we fought back at the end. We need to get back on track Wednesday at Ewood and keep on winning our home games, if we are to put in a serious challenge for the top 6.

[Mattyblue]

Which we also did at West Brom, and that is a change from some of those pre Christmas away games where the towel went in very early…

[Miller11]

1 hour ago, JoeH said:

Reading vs Back 4 or Back 3/5 Opposition
(Championship games only, 2022/23)

Goals Scored vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 0.87
Goals Conceded vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 1.53

Away Goals Scored vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 0.71
Away Goals Conceded vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 2.57

Win Ratio vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 40%
Away Win Ratio vs Back 3/5 Opposition: 14.29%
(Struggle to break teams down who play a 3/5, especially away from home where they're less brave)

Goals Scored vs Back 4 Opposition: 1.04
Goals Conceded vs Back 4 Opposition: 1.26

Away Goals Scored vs Back 4 Opposition: 0.46
Away Goals Conceded vs Back 4 Opposition: 1.23
(Concede far fewer goals when away from home against Back 4 opposition)

Win Ratio vs Back 4 Opposition: 34.77%
Away Win Ratio vs Back 4 Opposition: 23.07%
(Away win % higher vs Back 4 opponents, than back 3/5)

For some this is boring statistical analysis and not worth much, but I've used this formula most games to say whether I think we should use a back 3 or a 4 against an opposition and it's almost always proved right. For me, the data says we go 3/5 at the back.

Wednesday I'd go with this:

Pears

Carter
Hyam
Phillips

Rankin-Costello
Travis
Garrett
Brittain

Szmodics

Gallagher
Brereton Díaz

Why? I think Garrett and Brittain changed it for us in that game. I think Callum Brittain adds something and needs to be in the team. "It's too defensive"... well maybe, but we're shipping goals and we conceded 3 vs Reading at their place. We need to build from the solid base of a clean sheet at home and try to make something happen at the other end. 

For me, Stoke's dismantling of Reading at the Bet365 is the best reference point for this plan of action:

Anyway, that's my 2p, with a littering of stats which I'm sure will rile some lol.

Britain’s brief introduction against Stoke definitely made a positive difference, but I think that was due to being able to exploit space out wide. Not sure if we’d get that with him playing from the left.

Buckley didn’t look to be in any for state to play on Wednesday when he went off, if so I’d bring JRC into midfield and Brittain at fullback. Reason being JRC seems to do a lot of his best work when he comes across into the middle.

[J*B]

Just now, Miller11 said:

Britain’s brief introduction against Stoke definitely made a positive difference, but I think that was due to being able to exploit space out wide. Not sure if we’d get that with him playing from the left.

Buckley didn’t look to be in any for state to play on Wednesday when he went off, if so I’d bring JRC into midfield and Brittain at fullback. Reason being JRC seems to do a lot of his best work when he comes across into the middle.

Feels very Tony Mowbray does that Miller. JRCs best performances have come at right back, so I’d rather we played him there. Play an established central midfielder in centre midfield. 

[garnersfags]

All tickets  £10 or less.

ALL AREAS! 

Cheaper to go than stay at home ! ! 🤣⚽️🥳

[garnersfags]

21 minutes ago, Miller11 said:

 Reason being JRC seems to do a lot of his best work when he comes across into the middle.

Yes, I agree.

But when he starts in midfield, he is sooo much less effective. 

As we saw to our cost on Friday, full backs moving into midfield can cost us goals away from home, but I think its really works at home, so if JRC is fully fit, he plays at FB/WB.

This game is a big chance for JDT to release the shackles and overwhelm a poor team. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by garnersfags

[Miller11]

23 minutes ago, J*B said:

Feels very Tony Mowbray does that Miller. JRCs best performances have come at right back, so I’d rather we played him there. Play an established central midfielder in centre midfield. 

I’d sooner play Adam Wharton, but that won’t happen. Don’t want to see Morton at all and think we need someone a bit more expansive than Garrett. 

I certainly wouldn’t be against sticking with JRC and Pickering as fullbacks, I’d be very reluctant to play anyone on their wrong side. I’ve got the nagging worry that last time we played Reading both Brittain and Pickering were diabolically bad and got completely destroyed, defensive duties need to come first.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Miller11

[philipl]

Don't care how we get them- JDT can pick Rovers ladies for all I care-  but 3 points please.

[roversfan99]

Brereton definitely has to come in, that is a given. Not many other options that you would be confident coming in. Buckley will surely be out, the obvious choice is Adam Wharton but Tomasson doesn't seem to like him and will no doubt sadly go for Morton. I would just about prefer Morton to Garrett though who isn't good enough.@JoeH you say he changed the game, what did he do? He is poor on the ball, can't fault his tenacity but it actually sapped time up on a couple of occasions by charging in for tackles and the ball firing out of play.

There is also the full back dilemma, Brittain did well and set up a goal but he won't be doing that on his wrong side. That being said, Rankin Costello wouldn't be a player you would want to drop. Maybe he could move into midfield? Scott Wharton could come into contention regardless of formation with Carter all over the shop the other day.

Also, @J*B you'd play Dolan up front? I don't think he is very effective there, miles better wide left. Horrendous the other night but prior he has had his best form there.

Pears

Rankin Costello Carter Hyam Brittain

Travis A Wharton

Thomas Szmodics Dolan

Brereton

Subs: Hilton, S Wharton, Morton, Gallagher, Hedges, Pickering, Leonard

Our wins have been in that formation although a back 3 might be more sensible on Sunday with Thomas out and S Wharton in.

[chaddyrovers]

This is the team I would pick 

               Pears

JRC Carter Hyam Brittain

       Travis Garrett

Thomas Szmodics BBD 

             Gallagher 

Subs:- Hilton, Pickering, Phillips, Morton, Hedges, Dolan, Leonard 

Very harsh to dropped Dolan and Pickering to be honest but but it was between Thomas or Dolan and Brittain or Pickering to be selected. Garrett selection in midfield is a simple one for me cos he will make tackles and can switch the play aswell

[chaddyrovers]

35 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

the obvious choice is Adam Wharton but Tomasson doesn't seem to like him

People have sad they were a falling out between them before he got injured. Is he even ready for the first team given he has only just come back into the match squad. I would go for Garrett over Morton myself for this game

[roversfan99]

1 hour ago, chaddyrovers said:

People have sad they were a falling out between them before he got injured. Is he even ready for the first team given he has only just come back into the match squad. I would go for Garrett over Morton myself for this game

If those rumours are anything other than fictional then that is a big shame as Wharton is a real talent and far more promising than Garrett.

He has played numerous under 21 games so time to get him in the side.