FA Cup Draws.

[Aqualung]

The semi finals have been drawn and its no surprise to me that the Mancs have been kept apart in the semis. 

Also, if Irc, Man Utd have had home ties 10 times on the trot. What are the odds on that? 

Should the draw be done differently and how? 

It stinks to high heaven for me and there must be a more transparent way of doing it. 

[Herbie6590]

  On 20/03/2023 at 02:30, Aqualung said:

The semi finals have been drawn and its no surprise to me that the Mancs have been kept apart in the semis. 

Also, if Irc, Man Utd have had home ties 10 times on the trot. What are the odds on that? 

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50/50. Same as tossing a coin 10 times & it coming up Heads 10 times on the trot.

[wilsdenrover]

  On 20/03/2023 at 06:24, Herbie6590 said:

50/50. Same as tossing a coin 10 times & it coming up Heads 10 times on the trot.

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It’s a 1 in 1024 probability (1 in 2 to the power of 10)

Edited March 20, 2023 by wilsdenrover

[rigger]

Who gives a shit, now.

[wilsdenrover]

Presumably if someone gives a shit they’ll reply and if they don’t they won’t 🤷‍♂️

[rigger]

  On 20/03/2023 at 13:04, wilsdenrover said:

Presumably if someone gives a shit they’ll reply and if they don’t they won’t 🤷‍♂️

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It was a rhetorical question.

[longsiders1882]

  On 20/03/2023 at 07:16, wilsdenrover said:

It’s a 1 in 1024 probability (1 in 2 to the power of 10)

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But isn’t every draw independent of the previous one? Sure I read some interesting Derren Brown stuff on this.

[wilsdenrover]

  On 20/03/2023 at 16:04, longsiders1882 said:

But isn’t every draw independent of the previous one? Sure I read some interesting Derren Brown stuff on this.

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If you’re considering the odds of something happening ‘in a row’ you have to think of all previous possible ‘combinations’.

Drawn at home = 1 in 2.

Drawn at home twice in a row 1/4 - (home then home, home then away, away then home, away then away).

Being drawn at home once doesn’t decrease the chance of being drawn at home again the next time - that is still 1 in 2 but the ‘power’ increases with each additional occurrence (theoretical or actual).

Three in a row = 1/8 Four in a row = 1/16 and so on and so forth.

I hope that makes some sort of sense. 😀

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2023 by wilsdenrover
Used wrong term

[rigger]

  On 20/03/2023 at 16:16, wilsdenrover said:

If you’re considering the odds of something happening ‘in a row’ you have to think of all previous possible ‘combinations’

Drawn at home = 1 in 2

Drawn at home twice in a row 1/4 - (home then home, home then away, away then home, away then away) 

Being drawn at home once doesn’t decrease the chance of being drawn at home  again the next time  (or the time after that) - that is  still 1/2 but the ‘factor’ increases with each additional occurrence. (theoretical or actual)

Three in a row = 1/8 Four in a row = 1/16 and so on and so forth.

I hope that makes some sort of sense 😀

 

 

 

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The U21's are still in the cup, and are playing at home against the Nobbers tomorrow.

[wilsdenrover]

  On 20/03/2023 at 16:20, rigger said:

The U21's are still in the cup, and are playing at home against the Nobbers tomorrow.

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I’d suggest we’re odds on for the win then 😁

[longsiders1882]

  On 20/03/2023 at 16:16, wilsdenrover said:

If you’re considering the odds of something happening ‘in a row’ you have to think of all previous possible ‘combinations’.

Drawn at home = 1 in 2.

Drawn at home twice in a row 1/4 - (home then home, home then away, away then home, away then away).

Being drawn at home once doesn’t decrease the chance of being drawn at home again the next time - that is still 1 in 2 but the ‘power’ increases with each additional occurrence (theoretical or actual).

Three in a row = 1/8 Four in a row = 1/16 and so on and so forth.

I hope that makes some sort of sense. 😀

 

 

 

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But are they in a row? Each draw happens weeks apart. Im not even sure if your number stays the same throughout 🤷‍♂️😂

[wilsdenrover]

  On 20/03/2023 at 17:18, longsiders1882 said:

But are they in a row? Each draw happens weeks apart. Im not even sure if your number stays the same throughout 🤷‍♂️😂

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They’re definitely in a row 😀

[DeeCee]

Strange shit happens, sometimes by design.

[wilsdenrover]

Not that anyone asked, but the chance of 27 games in a row being a win or a loss is 1 in 56815 (1.5 to the power of 27)

I guess the ‘real’ answer as to the chances of Man U being drawn at home ten times in a row is - it depends on how often the FA/TV companies want them to be at home 😀

 

[Ianrally]

The formula for working it out:

The squaw on the hippopotamus is equal to the sons of the squaws on the other two hides. 

[rigger]

  On 20/03/2023 at 19:38, Ianrally said:

The formula for working it out:

The squaw on the hippopotamus is equal to the sons of the squaws on the other two hides. 

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Now I get it !

[AllRoverAsia]

Warm balls. Always works. 

It means I can watch a movie on Cup Final day, unless Brighton pull of a win.

TBH I will also be hoping Thugs United do a number on the Arabs but doubt that the Ref-FA-PL cabal will allow that.

Edited March 20, 2023 by AllRoverAsia

[SBlue]

  On 20/03/2023 at 20:13, AllRoverAsia said:

Warm balls.

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Why I could never live in Bangkok.

[bluebruce]

  On 20/03/2023 at 16:04, longsiders1882 said:

But isn’t every draw independent of the previous one? Sure I read some interesting Derren Brown stuff on this.

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Yes, the odds are 50/50 each time, but the odds of 10 home ties in a row or 10 away ties in a row would still be very high (I've not done the maths but 1 in 1024 sounds right).

However the odds of 9 home in a row and then 1 away would be exactly the same. It's essentially the odds of any given sequence of 10. So, H, A, H, H, H, H, H, A, A, A would have the exact same odds of happening (1024 to 1) before the sequence was initiated. Because there are 1024 different sequence combinations of home and away for any ten cup draws (not including neutral grounds of course).

10 home ties in a row for the most marketable club in England does seem suspicious to me though. As well as irritating when we had I think it was 4 away draws in a row for it this year? Can't remember last year to know if that sequence extends further.

Edited March 21, 2023 by bluebruce

[AllRoverAsia]

  On 21/03/2023 at 12:46, SBlue said:

Why I could never live in Bangkok.

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Here it's hot and sweaty .....

[wilsdenrover]

  On 21/03/2023 at 12:55, bluebruce said:

Yes, the odds are 50/50 each time, but the odds of 10 home ties in a row or 10 away ties in a row would still be very high (I've not done the maths but 1 in 1024 sounds right).

However the odds of 9 home in a row and then 1 away would be exactly the same. It's essentially the odds of any given sequence of 10. So, H, A, H, H, H, H, H, A, A, A would have the exact same odds of happening before the sequence was initiated.

10 home ties in a row for the most marketable club in England does seem suspicious to me though. As well as irritating when we had I think it was 4 away draws in a row for it this year? Can't remember last year to know if that sequence extends further.

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I did the maths 😀 but I think you’ve explained it better than I did 👍

Factor = 2 (outcomes available)

Power of = 10 (the sequence)

= 1 in 1024